Can China pass on-the-ground tests to ace its economic report card in 2025's second half?

South China Morning Post

3 days ago

Having gone five years without a raise, and now facing increased odds of being laid off, a 36-year-old accountant in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu is among those feeling a disconnect between robust headline economic figures and the day-to-day reality.
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Justin Li has been struggling to make ends meet since the onset of the pandemic. Since then, his monthly salary of 7,000 yuan (US$975) has not changed. And now, as his company undergoes a round of lay-offs, his dream of buying a home seems more distant than ever.
'With my current income, I don't dare take on a mortgage,' said Li, who relies on rental housing to provide a home for his wife, mother and one-year-old daughter. 'What if I lose my job one day? The job market is weak right now – there's too much unknown about the future.'
Last week, when Beijing delivered its midyear economic report, a
better-than-expected growth rate of 5.3 per cent in gross domestic product (GDP) showed how China's economy remained resilient in the face of various headwinds, including an unprecedented trade war with the United States.
While it is widely believed that Beijing will not allow its
'around 5 per cent' GDP growth target to be missed for the full year, risks lurking beneath the rosy headline figures – from sluggish consumer confidence and persistent deflationary pressure to a protracted property slump and trade uncertainty – are fuelling concerns of a second-half slowdown and prompting growing calls for stronger policy support.
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'We need to distinguish between official economic data and how households and businesses actually feel,' said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
'What people are feeling is a different world from the rosy data in the first half.'