Paul Krugman Warns Of ‘Bad Things' To Come After Trump's Firing Of Top Stats Official
The BLS may not be a 'household phrase but it is absolutely critical' to the functioning and decision-making of the U.S. government because 'everything that we know about what's happening to the economy in the last couple of months' comes from it, Krugman told MSNBC's Ari Melber.
'If you start to corrupt those numbers, if you start to report those numbers as being what makes the president look good instead of what's actually happening, then bad things start happening,' the 2008 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences continued.
Krugman explained how countries have historically suffered hyperinflation because officials start 'ordering the statistical agencies to report nothing but puppies and rainbows.' By the time they finally admit they may have a problem, they're already 'at 80% inflation,' he added.
'This is the playbook,' Krugman noted. 'We've seen it many, many times. And now I have to say, faster even than I expected, it's come to America.'
Listen from the 24-minute point here:
Related...
Ex-Prosecutor Says Probe Into Jack Smith Is Actually 'Last Thing' Trump Should Want
Trump's Latest Boast Breaks Math Brains Across The Internet
'Oh, F**k That S**t!': John Oliver Absolutely Shreds Megyn Kelly
Chuck Schumer Flips White House's Controversial Meme Into A Trump Takedown
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Bill.com, PagerDuty, Semrush, PubMatic, and MicroStrategy Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
What Happened? A number of stocks jumped in the morning session after the Software as a Service (SaaS) sector rebounded following the sell-off in the previous trading session as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report increased the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the 110,000 forecast. This, combined with downward revisions for May and June, signaled a cooling labor market to investors. In response, market expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged from roughly 40% to over 80%. A potential rate cut is generally favorable for growth sectors like technology and SaaS, as lower rates can increase the present value of their future earnings, boosting stock valuations. The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Among others, the following stocks were impacted: Finance and Accounting Software company (NYSE:BILL) jumped 5%. Is now the time to buy Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Cloud Monitoring company PagerDuty (NYSE:PD) jumped 3%. Is now the time to buy PagerDuty? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Listing Management Software company Semrush (NYSE:SEMR) jumped 8.5%. Is now the time to buy Semrush? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Advertising Software company PubMatic (NASDAQ:PUBM) jumped 4.5%. Is now the time to buy PubMatic? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Data Analytics company MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) jumped 5.3%. Is now the time to buy MicroStrategy? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Zooming In On Semrush (SEMR) Semrush's shares are very volatile and have had 21 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today's move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 4.3% on the news that the White House announced a new round of steep global tariffs, sparking concerns of a trade war and its impact on the U.S. and global economies. This move creates significant uncertainty for businesses and investors. The new tariffs, with rates of up to 41% on imports from 68 countries and the European Union, prompted a broad market sell-off, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index showing notable weakness. Adding to the bearish sentiment was a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which revealed that employers created only 73,000 jobs, far below economists' expectations. This combination of trade fears and signs of a slowing labor market has created a "risk-off" environment, leading investors to pull back from growth-oriented sectors like software and technology. Semrush is down 21.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $9.21 per share, it is trading 49.9% below its 52-week high of $18.37 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Semrush's shares at the IPO in March 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $820.54. Unless you've been living under a rock, it should be obvious by now that generative AI is going to have a huge impact on how large corporations do business. While Nvidia and AMD are trading close to all-time highs, we prefer a lesser-known (but still profitable) semiconductor stock benefiting from the rise of AI. Click here to access our free report on our favorite semiconductor growth story. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump has been a loud critic of government data for years. But now he's following through.
The shocking move Friday to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner wasn't the first time we've seen Trump and those in his orbit express their unhappiness with economic data. But it clearly marked an escalation — both in the abrupt dismissal as well as Trump's repeated evidence-free statements that it was because the underlying numbers are "rigged." It's also part of an effort that has spanned Trump's second term to, at the very least, shape how the government's giant and influential stream of data is presented to markets and to the public. The project has long been a mix of both ideology and political expedience. And it is likely to inform the coming pick for a replacement for the now-fired Erika McEntarfer, which Trump says is coming this week, as well as future changes to how the BLS and other government agencies do their work. These past moves by Trump allies have often been to try and showcase less prominent statistics in an effort to make things look a little rosier and — proponents say — offer a more accurate view of the economy from the Republican perspective. But crucially, they add, it is not a direct challenge to the underlying raw data. Trump has clearly muddied all that. Over multiple days of statements, he repeatedly said that the reason he fired McEntarfer was that the numbers she oversaw were "a scam." It also hasn't cheered markets and others that he has been vague on the changes he wants to see going forward. This also comes after years of Trump dismissing economic data when it doesn't suit him. Way back in 2017, then-press secretary Sean Spicer even once responded to good jobs figures by saying they "may have been phony in the past, but it's very real now." But it has mostly been rhetoric in the past. And this recent move to actually fire the workers behind it has clearly worried economic observers that US government data is now on the road to being compromised. Asked on Yahoo Finance Monday if investors have reason to now be wary of government data, TPW Advisory founder Jay Pelosky answered: "100%." "This is just another example of the dismantling of American exceptionalism," he added, saying a premium placed on US markets could now be at jeopardy "because folks feel they can trust the information that comes out of the US government." A focus on 'native born' jobs and private sector GDP Both the employment and gross domestic product (GDP) numbers have long been in GOP sights. On the jobs front: Trump's team has been focused on Bureau of Labor Statistics data looking at the employment status of native-born populations ahead of the overall number that also included foreign-born workers. The statistics for "foreign-born" workers include many naturalized Americans as well as those in the country legally. Vice President JD Vance even touted that aspect of last week's release on Friday afternoon, just hours before Trump declared the entire data set fake. "I was told 6 months ago that Americans losing jobs and the foreign-born gaining jobs was an irreversible demographic fact," Vance wrote early Friday afternoon. "Turns out you just needed a new president and a new immigration policy." Trump's top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, added over the weekend on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the president's firing of McEntarfer was more akin to a need for a "fresh set of eyes" at the agency. A similar effort has been mounted in recent months around the data that measures America's economic output. Gross domestic product comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and that wing of the government is overseen by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who has made the case that a more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending. In March, he told Fox News, "It goes like this ... if the government buys a tank, that's GDP. But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That's wasted money." It is, once again, an effort perhaps not to change the raw data but offer a different way of slicing it. This is underlined by how the government already publishes a figure roughly along the lines of what Lutnick has at times suggested: a total of only private output called Value Added by Private Industries (VAPI). The focus on VAPI was most noticeable this spring when cuts from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) were still being promised, and it was a move criticized at the time as simply an effort to sidestep economic pain there. In the months since — with Musk's departure and DOGE promises much less ambitious — the talk of revising GDP counting has faded as well. A more standard massaging of economic data Of course, some efforts by Trump's team also fall into the category of seeming to cherry-pick data to make their stewardship of the economy look better — and that of their political opponents seem worse. That long Washington tradition was seen last week when, on Wednesday, new GDP numbers offered a strong annual headline growth rate of 3% but with underlying economic growth much lower and closer to 1.2%. Trump and his team naturally focused on the higher figure. Then on Thursday, new inflation numbers saw investors focus on an inflation uptick and core prices, with the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rising 2.8% on an annual basis. Trump and his team instead focused on a lower figure offered by the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures price index only for the second quarter, which rose just 2.1% on an annualized rate. Hassett on Sunday called that "the most important" number. By Friday, perhaps the dour jobs report was too much to be spun with the revisions to prior months' numbers revealing significantly fewer jobs and leading some, like economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, to say that the release showed an economy "on the precipice of recession." Trump then simply declared the data fake and has followed that up with days of charges that the report "was RIGGED" against him. Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Rolex, luxury watchmakers brace for Trump's tariffs on Swiss imports
Switzerland is bracing for a big tariff hike on its exports, and its watch industry could take the brunt if President Trump hits Alpine nations with an enhanced 39% tariff for its exports, slated to start on Aug. 7. The Swiss watch industry employs thousands of artisans at various watchhouses that pump out millions of wristwatches and clocks each year. The industry also employs thousands in corporate and retail roles too. In 2024, Swiss watch exports hit $29.5 billion, second only to manufactured items like pharmaceuticals and chemical products, with the US being Switzerland's main trade partner. A tariff at these levels could crush demand for new Swiss watches. 'A 39% markup could make even a stainless-steel Submariner at retail jump from $10,000 to nearly $14,000,' secondhand dealer Bob's Watches CEO Paul Altieri said to Yahoo Finance. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Altieri noted that Bob's Watches' demand for pre-owned models is on the rise, with buyers hoping to avoid the tariff price surge. Indeed, watch prices have already been rising in the US when Swiss exports were hit hit a 10% tariff earlier this year. Morgan Stanley and its data partner WatchCharts found that prices for luxury watchmakers like Patek Philippe (up 6.9%), Audemars Piguet (up 6.7%), and Richemont's ( Vacheron Constantin (up 6.5%) have risen the most in its second quarter industry report. And these tariff-fueled price hikes won't just be situated in the US but will likely affect global customers too, argued watch trading site Subdial, which runs an online watch marketplace and releases its own watch index with Bloomberg. 'If they increase prices in the US only, we may see a knock on effect in other markets. It seems more likely that brands will increase prices across all geographies (so as to maintain pricing parity, an important principle within luxury), and just accept lower margins on US stock on account of tariffs,' a spokesperson for Subdial said. Price hikes will push more of these buyers to the secondhand market, where the selection is vastly wider and deals can be found, the Subdial spokesperson added. The big watch houses and retailers aren't saying much at the moment about where prices are headed. Swiss-based Swatch Group ( is the largest watch producer in the world and counts brands like Omega, Blancpain, Breguet, and, of course, Swatch, in its portfolio. A spokesperson for the group said the company would not comment at this time. Geneva-based Rolex, which is estimated to produce over a million luxury watches a year, is in the tariff crosshairs. A Rolex spokesperson did not respond to Yahoo Finance when sought for comment. Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.L) is one of Rolex's top retail partners and operates certain 'monobrand' Rolex-only boutiques. 'We note the announcement of the proposed new US tariff rate on imports from Switzerland due to come into effect on 7th August and will continue to work closely with our brand partners to mitigate any potential impact,' the company said in a statement to Yahoo Finance. Mitigating the impact in this case likely means passing on tariff costs to customers and/or absorbing a small percentage. And this is because the effect of full passage to customer would be huge. For Rolex and Watches of Switzerland, the tariff effects may not be as severe since they operate their own certified pre-owned (CPO) watch programs. Last year Rolex bought Bucherer, the jewelry and luxury watch retailer that operates the Tourneau chain in the US. New watch buyers could shift to these CPO programs and still keep revenue flowing. But as Bob's Watches points out, used prices are climbing in sympathy as demand rises. Interestingly, Trump's tariffs on the Swiss could actually hurt his own business interests. Last year, Trump licensed his name for a range of Trump-branded watches, with models dubbed 'Fight Fight Fight" and 'Mugshot suit,' as well as a $100,000 Swiss-made tourbillon movement watch in solid 18K gold. Pras Subramanian is the lead autos and wealth reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
