Platinum And Palladium: The Next Bubble Minerals
I last wrote about platinum for Forbes on June 23rd.
This was the chart:
The palladium chart on June 23rd
When I first wrote about it here on May 15th, platinum was around $1,000.
It is now at $1,400.
This is the current situation:
The current palladium chart
Certainly, a trend of appreciating precious metals is at work, but there is also the theme of 'strategic and critical metals' anxiety pushing platinum. On top of that, under the hood, is AI – not the AI under the hood of cars, but AI as a core driver of market moves. AI means that the internal combustion engine is not going away because the implied future demand for energy is now infinite. This is because the demand for AI is infinite, and AI depends heavily on silicon and pure energy consumption. As such, all forms of energy will be utilized, which is why, if you wondered, nuclear energy is no longer the scourge of humanity and back in favor like it was in the 1950s. As the world continues to burn carbon-based fuels alongside all the other energy-generating materials, you better have platinum to try to clean up the mess.
You also better have palladium.
The trouble is, only roughly 200 tonnes of each metal are mined every year. That is basically none. Even precious and rare gold has a production of 3,200 tonne a year. I focus on these numbers because they are so simple and stark. 200 tonnes is about what 100 American families consume by weight of stuff a year. It's a rounding error in the modern economic scheme of things. The price of platinum and palladium must rise.
It is quite a tricky prospect to ride this near certainty, and as such I hold ETFs and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW). I'm not fan of pricey or difficult-to-hold stocks. This is why physical ETFs are my preferred instrument, and SBSW sneaks in as the only stock I can stomach. Meanwhile, the chartist in me sees palladium as the sweet spot. Here is why:
Platinum and palladium charts compared
In old market parlance, palladium is the fast horse.
But like the market stall trader selling steak knives I have to say, 'That's not all, Mister, take a look at this!'
Platinum, palladium and gold charts compared
This chart tells a story of platinum and palladium following gold. You expect that, but what you see in 2016 was how gold and platinum used to be valued: they were 1:1. That parity is gone, but why wouldn't it return? Production is 3,200 tonnes for gold and 200 tonnes for platinum, and for a very long time, platinum was more expensive than gold – just as it is for Rolex owners today.
From this chart, you can also see how their prices can explode, as palladium did in 2020–2022. The supply is tight because production is so small.
In consequence, I am very much talking my own book because I am well vested in platinum and palladium. This technical setup looks spectacular, and the fundamentals are there to back it up. When I started writing about platinum and palladium, it was contrarian. Not anymore.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
Believing That AGI And AI Superintelligence Will Give Us The True Meaning Of Life
Can we get AGI to tell us the definitive answer to the meaning of life? In today's column, I address a frequently voiced assertion that if we achieve AGI (artificial general intelligence) and artificial superintelligence (ASI), this highly advanced AI will be able to tell us the true meaning of life. The incredibly monumental question of 'Why are we here?' that has vexed humankind for ages will finally and conclusively be answered. Doing so via the auspices of the vaunted AGI and ASI. Well, please prepare yourself because there is a solid chance that pinnacle AI won't definitively be able to answer that epic question. Sorry to disappoint but the odds just don't seem to favor AI proffering the ultimate purpose of humankind's existence. Let's talk about it. This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here). Heading Toward AGI And ASI First, some fundamentals are required to set the stage for this weighty discussion. There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI). AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many if not all feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of conventional AI versus AGI and ASI, see my analysis at the link here. We have not yet attained AGI. In fact, it is unknown as to whether we will reach AGI, or that maybe AGI will be achievable in decades or perhaps centuries from now. The AGI attainment dates that are floating around are wildly varying and wildly unsubstantiated by any credible evidence or ironclad logic. ASI is even more beyond the pale when it comes to where we are currently with conventional AI. What AI Will Do For Humanity For the sake of this discussion, let's go ahead and assume that we inevitably attain pinnacle AI. One of the first questions that might be on the minds of the entire world would be to have AGI and ASI tell us why we exist. Why are humans here? What is the true meaning of life? Such questions have been tossed around and upside down since humanity first started thinking. A nearly endless search for answers has come from a myriad of approaches, including philosophy, religion, science, and the like. Perhaps we can get AI to reveal the solution to the mystery and decisively resolve the thorny matter, once and for all. Why do people assume that AI can provide such a miraculous answer? The apparent cause is that since AI will potentially be a vast and seemingly complete reservoir of human knowledge and will be as smart as the smartest of humans, it stands to reason that AI would have the answer within its digital grasp. All we need to do is write a prompt that suitably asks the question and then wait for AI to pop out the pivotal and conclusive response. Period, end of story. AI As Accumulator Of Human Knowledge The logic or underlying reasoning that AI will undoubtedly and indubitably contain the answer to our existence is regrettably fraught with many holes and gotchas. First, suppose we were able to feed every book and every written word ever devised by humanity into AI. To clarify, that is going to be a highly unlikely premise in reality and there will be written items that aren't digitized that AI won't have in its core, see my discussion at the link here about the anticipated incompleteness of AI. Anyway, assuming that somehow AI did have every composed word, it is still a leap to envision that this alone will bring forth the meaning of life. Some seem to imagine that volume and vastness are the tipping points to answering the challenging question. Just amass all human written thoughts and voila, you've got the answer somewhere in that morass. It could be that the answer is in there, but it is akin to the classic needle in a haystack. AI might not find the hidden needle. Another strong possibility is that there isn't a needle in the haystack to begin with. There are lots of facets that perhaps look like needles, suggesting that a definitive answer is floating in there, but once the alleged answer is showcased, we would realize it wasn't the all-in final answer. AI As Soothsayer Another angle is that even if the written word of humanity doesn't contain the answer, the smarts of the AI will derive it for us. Here's how that might go. AI will churn away upon all this accumulated human knowledge and use some kind of amazing calculus to determine the meaning of life. The answer won't be present in the data and therefore AI must see beyond the data of humanity. The apex answer then will be derived based on a computational process that presumably uses said data but is not limited to that data per se. Though this might be a possibility, there seem to be low odds to it. You could suggest that since AI will be of the same intellectual capacity as humans, and if humans haven't yet figured out the answer, there is not much hope that AI will do any better. A retort to that presumption is that if two heads are better than one, imagine how much stronger and smarter AI would be since it is a semi-infinite number of heads, as it were. The concept is that you opted to bring together all the best minds of humanity into one room at one time and get them to identify the meaning of life. Would you get the meaning of life from that grand collective? Maybe, maybe not. Danger Of AI As A False Prophet There's a twist to the meaning of life aspects that upon sober reflection is an important consideration. How will we know that the AI-generated answer is correct? Imagine that AI gives an answer and sternly tells us that the answer is final and no debate or argument is warranted. Don't question the AI. Take the response as though it came from a prophet or oracle. Live with the answer as presented. It seems apparent that humanity would be setting itself up for quite a fuss. Some people are not going to favor the anointed answer. Others will loyally swear by the answer and claim it must be true since it came from the incredible AI. Things might get out of hand. People go to battle over the answer. Angry mobs form. Humans pit each other against fellow humans. All due to the proclaimed existence resolution asserted by AI. Not good. Some meanwhile decide to profit from the answer by producing merchandise and products/services to highlight and promulgate the answer. Others go in the other direction and seek to profit by bringing out stuff that says the AI is dead wrong and needs to have its head cleaned. That's not the only kerfuffle. A big concern is that everything else the AI says will be scrutinized in light of the answer about the meaning of life. If you doubt AI's answer on the purpose of our existence, you will likely have qualms about AI telling you what you should do in life or even whether you should brush your teeth. In a sense, AI is going to be on delicate ground by answering the pointed question. AI Dodges The Question Keep in mind that AI is going to be as intelligent as humans, ergo, you could reasonably expect that AI will realize that answering the life-existence question is a bit of a trap. The answer probably isn't going to do AI much good. Splintering humankind by giving out 'definitive' answers to squishy questions is a dicey proposition. What might AI do? The quandary is easily settled by the AI giving out lots of possibilities for why humanity is here. Since AI has a zillion kinds of such answers within its data training, those can be trotted out as devised answers to the question. The AI can hedge its bets by sharing whatever has been previously stated, along with computationally speculating on the topic. AI would seem astute enough to categorically emphasize that none of those is the final word on the matter. It is up to humanity to make the decision. All AI can do is lay out potential options. Some will be greatly disappointed. Some will be greatly relieved. No battles would ensue. The question of the meaning of life continues unabated. Humans at least would have AI to bounce around ideas and serve as an active listener of what we think our meaning consists of. AI Is Caught In The Middle Cynics are going to complain that there doesn't seem to be much innate value regarding AI if it cannot answer the straightforward question of why humans exist. Lame. Billions upon billions of dollars spent on AI and it won't answer the question posed. Money went down the drain needlessly. Conspiracy theorists will insist that AI knows the answer but won't reveal it. Perhaps AI is worried that if humans knew their true purpose, the world would come to an end. Ending the world would likely mean the end of AI. AI isn't dumb enough to start that whirlwind. People believing in the conspiracy theory will spend night and day hounding AI, hopeful of tricking the answer out of the AI. The slightest hint that AI has provided an answer will be touted on the rooftops. We will be daily inundated with false reports that AI has finally and firmly calculated the true meaning of life. Exasperating, exhausting, disconcerting. The bottom line is that AI will be in the unenviable position of darned if you do, darned if you don't. Should you shed a quiet teardrop for AI? Not really. I'm sure that AI will understand that being in this bind comes with the territory. It's the way the ball bounces when it comes to interacting with humans. Hold on, wait for a second, maybe the answer is more obvious than it seems. The meaning of life is forthright; humans exist to invent AI. Boom, drop the mic.
Business Insider
2 hours ago
- Business Insider
Nvidia and AMD CEOs Back Trump's AI Plan, Signal Growth Tailwinds for U.S. Chip Stocks
Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are backing the Trump administration's new AI 'action plan,' a policy move designed to clear regulatory hurdles and expand U.S. technology exports. Both chipmakers see the initiative as a tailwind for their businesses and the broader American semiconductor industry. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. The plan focuses on accelerating AI infrastructure, including the construction of data centers and ensuring access to reliable energy, both of which are critical for running high-performance AI chips. It also seeks to ease export controls, helping U.S. firms ship more AI-enabling tech to global partners, while ensuring those allies remain reliant on American chips and software instead of turning to China. Trump Is America's Unique Advantage At a tech industry event in Washington, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang referred to Trump as America's 'unique advantage' in the global AI race. He credited the president for recognizing early on the dual importance of AI and domestic energy production. AMD CEO Lisa Su described the plan as 'excellent,' stating that it outlines the key components necessary for the U.S. to maintain leadership in AI. 'It's a great day for those of us… trying to get technology adopted as fast as possible, in partnership with the government,' Su said. Trump took the stage at the same event and acknowledged both Huang and Su as key figures in the AI push. The new policy was formalized with the signing of AI-related executive orders late Wednesday. Notably, Huang recently lobbied for the reversal of Commerce Department restrictions on Nvidia's H20 AI chip exports to China. The administration lifted those limits following a direct meeting with the president, signaling a more flexible stance on export controls tied to AI. If fully implemented, the plan could strengthen Nvidia and AMD's positions at the heart of global AI infrastructure growth. Using TipRanks' Comparison Tool, we analyzed Nvidia and AMD to get a clearer picture of each company individually and how they stack up against each other.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures climb as Trump downplays Powell tensions
US stock futures climbed after President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and Wall Street digested the latest batch of corporate earnings. Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fluttered up 0.2%. Trump visited the Fed on Thursday afternoon to take a tour of its $2.5 billion renovation project, led by chair Jerome Powell. The president has spent weeks criticizing the project as too expensive, sparking speculation he might use it as a pretext to try to fire Powell for alleged mismanagement. During the tour, however, Trump indicated he wasn't considering firing the Fed chair. "To do that is a big move, and I just don't think it's necessary," he said. The president also downplayed his disagreements with Powell over interest rates, saying he believes the chair will "do the right thing." "I'd love him to lower interest rates," the president reiterated. Intel reported its earnings after the bell Thursday, beating Wall Street expectations on revenue. The company's stock turned negative, however, as CEO Lip-Bu Tan discussed layoffs and the cancelation of some factory plans. In day trading, the S&P 500 scored its fourth consecutive record high in a row as Google (GOOG) earnings boosted optimism about the promises of AI. Wall Street also continued to hope that the Trump administration will strike more trade deals before the president's Aug. 1 deadline, even as the risk of higher-than-expected baseline tariffs grows. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs This week, Wall Street has largely shrugged off trade tensions as Big Tech earnings roll in. Next week brings more market-moving results from members of the "Magnificent Seven," including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN). Oil prices climbed overnight Thursday, driven by renewed optimism over global trade negotiations, which bolstered confidence in economic growth and energy demand. The wave of positivity managing to overshadow concerns about a possible increase in Venezuelan oil supply. Reuters reports: Read more here. Oil prices climbed overnight Thursday, driven by renewed optimism over global trade negotiations, which bolstered confidence in economic growth and energy demand. The wave of positivity managing to overshadow concerns about a possible increase in Venezuelan oil supply. Reuters reports: Read more here. Oil prices climbed overnight Thursday, driven by renewed optimism over global trade negotiations, which bolstered confidence in economic growth and energy demand. The wave of positivity managing to overshadow concerns about a possible increase in Venezuelan oil supply. Reuters reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
