WNBA Preview: First half recap, what to watch in the second half

NBC Sports

5 hours ago

The 2025 WNBA All-Star Weekend came and went in the blink of an eye. The entertaining showcase of the league accentuated a very enjoyable first half of the season. Still, its weekend's conclusion also marks a new chapter in the season, one in which a higher level of urgency and seriousness is likely to develop. In today's column, we'll briefly recap the first half of the season before turning the page to what's to come.
WNBA FIRST HALF RECAP
Entering the season, we knew a couple of things to be true: 1) The Liberty had a legitimate chance to secure a second-straight WNBA championship, given their roster retention from the previous year, and 2) If any team could spoil New York's plans of repeating, the most likely would be the Lynx, a team that was an overtime period away from bringing home the 2024 WNBA title. The two squads raced out of the gates and began the 2025 season unblemished through nine games, hitting some extreme highs along the way. At the time of this writing, the two finalists comfortably occupy the top two spots in the standings, despite battling key injuries.
New York currently harbors the best offense (107.4 offensive rating) and the second-best defense (97.7 defensive rating) in the league, while Minnesota is second in offense (107.2 offensive rating) and first in defense (94.8 defensive rating). These rankings are even more impressive when factoring in only nine games played for the Liberty's reigning Finals MVP, Jonquel Jones, and the Lynx's two leading scorers, Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride, missing a combined seven games. Both teams performed like the class of the WNBA through the first half of the season, and they'll only strengthen their spots in that top tier of contenders should health become less of an issue over the back half of the season.
20-4 at the break. the work continues when we get back. pic.twitter.com/o9IzO3RIYU
The positivity towards the Valkyries has been plentiful in recent columns, so to avoid repetitiveness, I'll remain brief in my praising. The ability for this team, constructed through an expansion draft, to find instant success is something I wasn't prepared for. They've rallied around a really good defense to win games while the offense has survived thanks to mid-career peaks from Veronica Burton and first-time All-Star Kayla Thornton. Golden State did hobble into the All-Star Break with three consecutive losses, but they've responded to worse stretches earlier in the season by piecing together multiple-game win streaks immediately after.
While the Mercury being a top-three team in the league isn't necessarily shocking, given the high-end talent they brought in, the fact that they've been this successful with the Alyssa Thomas/ Satou Sabally/ Kahleah Copper Big 3 only playing in six games together is certainly a surprise. Like Golden State, the Mercury come equipped with a high-level defense, but their up-tempo, three-point-heavy style makes them as challenging a team to defend as any on nights when shots are dropping. Phoenix has already taken down the top two teams in the league, proving its capability of being the best team on the floor on any given night, regardless of the opponent. It'll be fun to see what highs this team can hit when its star players are healthy and able to log heavy minutes together.
Associated Press,
WNBA SECOND HALF PREVIEW
August 7 marks the official last day of the season to make trades. We've already seen the Aces move a future draft pick for NaLyssa Smith in an attempt to double down on their win-now timeline, and we've also watched the Wings trade for Li Yueru to shore up their frontcourt for this season and potentially ones to come. Now, the question is: what's next?
The answer is unknown. However, several impactful players find themselves in interesting situations — think Aaliyah Edwards in Washington and Arike Ogunbowale in Dallas. Meanwhile, a couple of teams may be ready to either buy in for the remainder of the season or pivot and sell now to position themselves for upcoming drafts better. No matter the motive, trades are always exciting (from the fans' perspective) and could be especially important should they have an influence on the remainder of the 2025 season.
More on the remainder of the season; we should be in for a fantastic second half. No teams have clinched a playoff berth this early in the season, but it would take things going significantly south for the Lynx, Liberty, and Mercury not to make it to the postseason; even the Dream and Storm feel like safe bets at this point. But from there? The race for the final seeds in the bracket could be a tight one.
If the playoffs began today, the Aces would get the last spot in the bracket — they're at .500 through the midway point thanks to two otherworldly performances from the reigning MVP, A'ja Wilson, before the break, where she dropped back-to-back 35-point double-doubles that led Las Vegas to victories. With such special displays from her, one would think that even this flawed team has enough veteran experience and high-end talent to avoid falling out of the playoff mix.
Will the young Mystics, led by first-year head coach Sydney Johnson and three All-Star reserves, continue their upward trend and eventually secure a postseason birth? Can the Valkyries mentioned above, who've run hot and cold throughout their inaugural season, slither their way from the outside to finish inside the bracket? Several storylines already exist, and plenty more will develop throughout the remainder of the season as games become more and more meaningful.
THE WEEK AHEAD
(Tuesday, July 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN3)
Here's one of those contests that could ultimately impact the playoff picture (maybe it's too early to play the ramifications game, but we'll play it anyway for the sake of the column). The Sparks, winners of back-to-back games for the first time all season, will have a chance to string together a third straight victory against a Mystics team they just punished in Los Angeles by 19 points before the All-Star Break. That recent matchup between the two saw Washington's three-game win streak come to an end, but a trip back to Washington, D.C. for a rematch could bode well for the Mystics, who own a much better home record (7-3) than on the road (4-8). A win for either team could set the tone for the second half of the season.
(Wednesday, July 23 at 10 p.m. ET on CBSSN)
On the second night of a back-to-back, the Dream will travel from the Las Vegas desert to the Phoenix desert to face a dangerous Mercury team. Rhyne Howard (knee) won't appear in this game or any other one for the rest of July, which takes a bit of the excitement away from the first matchup between these two squads. Still, it should be a good game given the status of each team — the Dream has lost five of their last eight games and needs to be careful not to allow further slippage to weaken its postseason chances. At the same time, the banged-up Mercury wants to avoid back-to-back losses to keep pace with the Lynx and Liberty at the top of the standings.
(Thursday, July 24 at 7 p.m. ET on Prime Video)
There's a legitimate chance that Thursday's third meeting between Las Vegas and Indiana could provide an identical framework to the teams' most recent meeting — an Aces squad heading to Indianapolis to potentially face a Caitlin Clark-less Fever team on a Thursday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. That early July contest yielded a very bad 27-point Aces loss in which A'ja Wilson was the only Las Vegas player to score more than six points. Indiana's thumping of Las Vegas allowed them to end a 16-game losing streak to the franchise. We'll hope Clark is back from injury for Thursday's matchup, but even if she isn't, the third iteration of Fever-Aces has the makings of an intense one as both teams look to shift into another gear after a first half of the season that likely didn't meet their standards.
(Friday, July 25 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ION)
These two championship contenders have had some fun battles in each of their two matchups this season. Neither team has been at full strength for either game, and this will likely be the case again on Friday. Still, neither has needed a fully healthy roster to perform exceptionally. Alyssa Thomas has dominated the matchups, averaging 17.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 11 assists against the Liberty, but the always dangerous Breanna Stewart, who snuck in 35 points in the first meeting between the teams, is capable of doing what is required to lead New York past Phoenix. Whatever the outcome, viewers should expect an entertaining product at Barclays Center on Friday night.
(Sunday, July 27 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC)
Sky-Fever, Angel Reese-Caitlin Clark; do I need to say more? From Chicago's side, the two previous matchups against Indiana this season generated some undesirable outcomes — the season-opening 35-point loss was simply an awful way to break in a new season, while the rematch a month later marked the end of Courtney Vandersloot's season (knee), and a major hurdle for the Sky to have to overcome. They have figured some things out lately and are performing much better than they did in those early-season matchups. Yet, Indiana has owned this matchup over the past couple of seasons. If healthy, a Clark-led Fever team would have the proven offensive firepower to present an unspectacular Sky defense with all sorts of challenges. The battle in the interior between Indiana's offense and Chicago's defense could be an indicator of how this one plays out.
Chicago Sky's Angel Reese talks about her experience at the WNBA's most recent CBA negation meeting, including gaining a new perspective after a year in the league.