It Is Necessary To Discuss How The West's Relations With Russia Will Be Built After Putin

Memri

2 days ago

More than three years have passed since Russia's full-scale escalation against Ukraine began. The events of February 2022 were not just another stage in a geopolitical game, but a real watershed that radically changed both the world map and the very structure of Russian society. Anti-Western sentiments, which were previously used by the authorities as a tool of political propaganda, have now deeply penetrated the daily lives of millions of Russians, becoming an integral part of their worldview. For a huge segment of the population, reconciliation with the West is no longer just an undesirable option – it has become categorically unacceptable, impossible.
This deep conviction is the result of many years of targeted work by the Russian propaganda machine, which has significantly strengthened its positions and methods of influence in recent years. State media and high-ranking officials tirelessly broadcast anti-American and anti-European rhetoric, turning it into a powerful tool for internal mobilization and legitimization of the Kremlin's actions. Any statement, even the most insignificant, by Western politicians, any careless utterance, is instantly seized upon and used as evidence of Western hostility and as justification for Russia's aggressive policies.
Elvira Kikhareva
"The Transition To Pragmatic Relations Is Possible Only If The West Offers Specific Mechanisms For Interaction"
A classic example of such manipulation is the statement by former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now the head of European diplomacy, about the potential for Russia's disintegration.[1] Regardless of the context and Kallas' true intentions, this statement was instantly seized upon by Russian propaganda and presented as irrefutable evidence of Western plans to destroy Russia. Such statements, even if they do not reflect the real policies of the West, strengthen the conviction of Russian citizens in the inevitability of conflict, the inevitability of confrontation and the complete impossibility of any compromise.
This creates an extremely difficult situation in which the question of future relations between the West and Russia after Vladimir Putin's departure becomes especially relevant and acute. A simple containment strategy based on the accumulation of military power and sanctions pressure is unlikely to be effective in the long term. On the contrary, it may strengthen the sense among Russians of inhabiting a besieged fortress and further strengthen support for the authorities, who appear in the eyes of the population as the only defenders from a hostile outside world. It is necessary to take into account that Russian society is now highly polarized. There are groups of the population for whom anti-Western sentiments are not simply a consequence of propaganda, but deeply rooted convictions formed over decades.
Changing these convictions will take a long time and will require not only political but also socio-economic transformations within Russia. Any attempt by the West to impose its conditions on Russia without taking these internal processes into account risks leading to even greater isolation and confrontation.
Any actions require pre-prepared ground for a change in the course of the future Russian government. The transition to pragmatic relations is possible only if the West offers specific mechanisms for interaction.
Three years of rash decisions not only provoked unprecedented Western sanctions, but also radically changed the Kremlin's geopolitical priorities.
From a strategy focused on partial integration into the Western system, Russia made a sharp turn to building an alternative, primarily Eastern, vector of development. The three pillars of the new Russian foreign policy were strengthening allied ties with irreconcilable opponents of the West, strengthening economic cooperation with the states of the "Global South" and, finally, unprecedented rapprochement with China.
Sanctions pressure pushed for active building of relations with states that traditionally have tense relations with the West. Partnership with Iran, North Korea, and Yemen, although not clear to many, pragmatically pursues several goals: gaining access to technology, bypassing Western sanctions, and demonstrating readiness to resist Western dominance. At the same time, Moscow is actively increasing its presence in Africa, Latin America, South Asia, and the post-Soviet space, offering these countries an alternative to the Western development model.
Here, Russia is counting not only on expanding markets for its goods, but also on access to cheap resources. However, the effectiveness of this tactic remains questionable, given Russia's own limited economic capabilities and competition from other global players.
"Thanks To Cooperation With China, Russia Has Gained Access To Alternative Financial Systems"
The most significant change in Russian foreign policy has been the unprecedented rapprochement with China. If before 2022, relations between the two countries were rather pragmatic, now the Kremlin is demonstrating a readiness to significantly increase economic and political dependence on Beijing. China, the largest consumer of Russian energy, has become a real lifeline for the Russian economy under the blow of sanctions. Thanks to cooperation with China, Russia has gained access to alternative financial systems, bypassing the restrictions imposed by the West. This cooperation extends not only to energy, but also to other areas: technology, investment, infrastructure projects. However, this dependence is fraught with significant risks: economic vulnerability to China can limit the country's sovereignty and lead to unequal relations in the long term. Although the Kremlin views this dependence as an investment in confronting the United States and strengthening its influence on the world stage, the long-term consequences of this choice remain unpredictable.
There have also been major changes in the circles of the Russian elite influencing the "climate" within the country. Those close to Putin increasingly understand that 2022 was a real disaster, and many officials want to gradually move away from the president's mistakes. The main thing for them is to be sure that the West will react positively to this. But it will be difficult for the West to change its tone and develop a common opinion on Russia – because the views in different European capitals differ greatly. Nevertheless, Western politicians dissatisfied with Trump's policies could begin to develop at least a new security concept for relations with Russia. One possible step is to conclude arms-control agreements and establish communication channels that will help avoid conflicts. In such agreements, arms restrictions, a ban on tactical intervention, and the creation of coordination mechanisms are important.
But not only defense security, but also the transformation of economic relations will move the dead point. Without serious economic changes, it is unlikely that trade with Russia will be restored quickly. But if this happens, both sides will win: Russia will reduce its excessive dependence on China, and relations with the West will become more balanced. However, cooperation is possible only after the hostilities cease. Arms control is possible when the situation in eastern Ukraine stabilizes.
In addition to the steps listed, it is important to establish a dialogue with Russian society and the elite, to show that the Kremlin, not the West, initiated the isolation. Those officials, scientists, AND representatives of culture and sports who are not engaged in propaganda should be allowed free entry to Europe, lifting visa restrictions. It also needs to be explained to Europeans that the responsibility for the breakdown in peaceful relations lies not with all Russians, but with the specific actions of the leadership, which brought the country to such a difficult situation.
"The Lack Of A Common Plan To Prepare For The Future"
It is necessary to discuss now how relations with Russia will be built after Putin, although Europe is currently experiencing a serious crisis. It may seem that it is too early to think about the post-war order – after all, there is a war going on. But preparing for the future and thinking through different scenarios is very important in order to prevent further escalation of the conflict.
Finally, Putin has not appointed a successor for himself – most likely, he wants to retain power for himself. Most likely, the next leader will be weaker, thus starting a struggle between political groups within the country. It will be similar to the period after Stalin's death, when power passed to a group of experienced politicians who gradually moved the country towards pragmatism and greater freedoms.
The main problem now is the lack of a common plan to prepare for the future.
The crisis in the United States showed that rapid changes are possible, and the same could happen in Russia after Putin. If nothing is discussed, the conflict between Russia and the West will continue.
The idea of reconsidering the approach to relations with Russia is not just theoretical reasoning. Regardless of how the authorities in Moscow are currently behaving, the presence of specific proposals from the West could influence the situation inside the country right now and increase the chances of softening the tough policy.
*Elvira Vikhareva is a renowned Russian opposition politician based in Russia. In 2023, she was poisoned with heavy metal salts.