Pentagon pause on arms shipments to Ukraine part of a global review of pressures on stockpiles

Independent

4 days ago

The Pentagon is pausing shipments of weapons to Ukraine again after more than three years of deliveries meant to bolster the country's defenses against invading Russian forces.
The Trump administration's decision comes as Ukraine is facing intensified attacks by Russia against its civilians, and withholding that assistance could reduce Kyiv 's ability to counter deadly incoming ballistic missile attacks.
Officials said the decision was prompted by concerns that U.S. stockpiles were getting too low.
Here's a look at what the U.S. has provided Ukraine to date and why it's concerned about pressure on its own arsenal:
What weapons has the U.S. provided to Ukraine to date?
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has provided more than $67 billion in weapons and security assistance to Kyiv.
That ranges from more than 500 million bullets and grenades to 31 Abrams tanks, more than 3 million 155mm artillery rounds and more than 5,000 Humvees. It's also provided scores of critical drones and drone defense systems.
But Ukraine's constant need has been for air defense — from taking out Russian aircraft in the early days of the conflict to having to defend itself against long-range missiles now.
In response, the U.S. has provided Patriot air defense batteries, National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and HAWK air defense systems — and still more is sought.
But those demands are butting up against demands for similar air defenses in the Middle East and the reality that the U.S. military does not have enough munitions on hand to sustain a high rate of deliveries, while providing troops with equipment to train on and build up a stockpile for a potential future conflict. That's especially true if it's put in a position where the U.S. has to defend Taiwan against China.
How will the new weapons pause affect Ukraine?
This is the second time the Trump administration has paused weapons shipments to Ukraine, but for different reasons.
After an explosive Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March, President Donald Trump paused weapons that were funded under the Biden administration and still flowing into Ukraine. That pause was short-lived after Republican lawmakers pressed for Ukraine aid to resume.
The new pause affects high-demand munitions the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, including Patriot missiles, the AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile and shorter-range Stinger missiles.
Ukraine has relied on the AIM-7 Sparrow to counter incoming missiles and shorter-range Stinger missiles to knock down Russian aircraft or counter drone attacks. The Patriot missiles are used against Russia's frequent ballistic missile attacks.
The pause could have deadly consequences for Ukraine, said Brad Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
'If we deprive Kyiv of PAC-3 (Patriot) interceptors it means more Russian missiles getting through and more dead Ukrainians,' Bowman said.
Rather than cutting off Ukraine, Bowman said the administration needs to look at 'whether we are taking all the steps we can to procure the max quantity that industry can produce.'
Does the U.S. face stress on its weapons stockpile?
The Trump administration's pause is part of a global review by the Pentagon on what munitions it is providing and where it is sending them, and the impact on its own stockpiles.
'We can't give weapons to everybody all around the world,' Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said in a briefing Wednesday. 'We have to look out for Americans and defending our homeland and our troops around the world.'
Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has previously warned that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East were putting pressure on his stockpile levels.
As Iran launched a retaliatory ballistic missile attack last month, troops defended Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar with scores of Patriot air defense missiles — a high-demand munition the U.S. only has in limited supply.
The Navy also has defended ships in the Red Sea by striking Houthi weapons and launch sites in Yemen with Tomahawk missiles. In one day in January 2024, it fired more Tomahawks than the Navy had purchased the prior year, said Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior defense fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
'Everybody's worried — and the thing is, they have a reason to be worried,' Eaglen said. 'Air defense is a key capability of the most concern.'
Is the U.S. producing enough weapons?
A $60 billion Ukraine aid bill passed by Congress last year contained billions for U.S. weapons manufacturers to expand their production capacity.
Despite the billions spent on defense contracts each year, the number of weapons in the U.S. can quickly dwindle — particularly for some of the complex air defense munitions — if a major conflict breaks out. That's because of the time it takes to build each missile.
For example, despite an influx of investment since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the rate of production for Patriot missiles — one of the military's most important air defenses for its bases overseas — has increased to just 48 per month. That is compared to 21 per month prior to the invasion.
While the total number of Patriot munitions the U.S. has is unknown, the number of entire Patriot missile defense systems is in such limited supply that providing one to a new location often means taking it from somewhere else. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he needs the systems to help defend his country's electrical grid and cities from the thousands of missile and drone attacks it faces daily.
And defending a large overseas base like Al Udeid can also require firing scores of the missiles, which cost $4 million a piece. For other munitions that have been critical to Ukraine's defenses — like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS — production has increased from just 5 per month pre-invasion to 8 per month now, according to a Defense Department fact sheet.
Elbridge Colby, Defense Department undersecretary for policy, said Pentagon officials have aimed to provide Trump 'with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine' but also are 'rigorously examining' that approach while 'preserving U.S. forces' readiness for administration defense priorities.'
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