Latest news with #10xResearch
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin CME Futures Premium Slides, Suggests Waning Institutional Appetite
The premium in bitcoin (BTC) futures listed on the global derivatives giant Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has narrowed sharply, a sign of reduced institutional appetite. The annualized premium in rolling three-month futures has dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since October 2023, according to data tracked by 10x Research. That's down significantly from highs above 10% seen early this year. The decline in the so-called basis, despite BTC's price holding steady above $100,000, indicates fading optimism or uncertainty about future price prospects. The drop is consistent with the slide in the funding rates in perpetual futures listed on major offshore exchanges. According to 10x, funding rates recently flipped negative, suggesting a discount in perpetual futures relative to the spot price, which is also a sign of bias for bearish short positions. The dwindling price differential is a setback for those seeking to pursue the non-directional cash-and-carry arbitrage, which involves simultaneously purchasing spot ETFs (or actually BTC) and shorting the CME futures. "When yield spreads fall below a 10% hurdle rate, Bitcoin ETF inflows are typically driven by directional investors rather than arbitrage-focused hedge funds. This dynamic often coincides with price consolidation. Currently, these spreads are down to 1.0% (perpetual futures funding rate) and 4.3% (CME basis rate), indicating a significant decline in hedge fund arbitrage activity," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk. Thielen added that the drop-off coincides with muted retail participation, as indicated by depressed perpetual funding rates and low spot market volumes. Padalan Capital voiced a similar opinion in a weekly update, calling the decline in funding rates a sign of retrenchment in speculative interest. "A more acute signal of risk-off positioning comes from regulated venues, where the CME-to-spot basis for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has inverted into deeply negative territory, indicating aggressive institutional hedging or a substantial unwind of cash-and-carry structures.," Padalan Capital noted.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Short COIN/Long BTC Trade Will Be a Winner as Soaring Coinbase Nears Overvaluation: 10x Research
Shares in Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) are fast approaching an overvaluation threshold, 10x Research, headed by Markus Thielen, said Friday. Thielen is recommending a pair trade that comprises a short position in COIN and a simultaneous long position in bitcoin BTC. In a note sent to clients, Thielen explained that Coinbase's fundamentals, mainly trading volumes, haven't kept pace with the rally in share prices, which are fast nearing the overvaluation threshold, a classic setup for a "tactical reversal." "While Coinbase hasn't quite breached the +30% overvaluation threshold, it's approaching fast, and despite being one of the few high-quality, listed crypto plays, its current premium suggests the risk of underperformance ahead," Thielen detailed. "Traders looking to capitalize on this dislocation might consider going long Bitcoin while shorting Coinbase, or using options by selling a COIN call and buying a BTC call to express the same view with defined risk." According to 10x's linear regression model, 75% of Coinbase's stock price action is explained by bitcoin's price and trading volumes. That means just 25% of COIN's price action is led by other factors, such as the potential impact of Circle's IPO or U.S. crypto and macro developments. In quantitative terms, it suggests that COIN's price tends to rise by $20 for every $10,000 move in BTC and by $24 for every $100 billion increase in trading volume. The recent price action suggests the rally is overextended relative to bitcoin's price and trading volumes. Shares in Coinbase have surged 84% over the past two months, while bitcoin has risen by just 14%. "Not only is this premium stretched relative to bitcoin's current price, but it also appears disconnected from underlying crypto trading volumes, which are hovering around $108 billion," said Thielen. "This rare deviation suggests Coinbase's valuation is extended and vulnerable to mean reversion." The report said that other factors – Circle's IPO on June 3, the June 17 'GENIUS' stablecoin bill and the buying frenzy from Korean investors – seem to have been priced in. "As this momentum cools, evident in the recent reversals of Circle, KakaoPay, and Metaplanet, there is growing risk that Coinbase shares could also be nearing a local top," Thielen said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Why bitcoin isn't rallying even with billions of dollars in ETF inflows
The stock market has made an extraordinary comeback from its lows earlier in the year despite lingering questions about the economy and rising geopolitical tensions, but bitcoin's gains have been more muted. The flagship cryptocurrency hasn't rallied in a big way since the beginning of the year. Since May 9, it's traded in a tight $10,000 range – with a brief blip above that ceiling to its all-time high of nearly $112,000, which was still just a step above its previous record. And this is despite billions of dollars in ETF inflows in that period. On Wednesday, bitcoin ETFs logged 12 consecutive sessions of inflows. The trend followed a second week in a row of inflows. Both milestones underscore the strength of institutional demand even amid market uncertainty. The funds have collectively seen about $3.5 billion in inflows this month, while the price of bitcoin itself has risen just 2%, according to Coin Metrics. One reason for that could be that despite interest in bitcoin remaining at elevated levels, early megawhales are holding on to their coins for longer, waiting to offload them in greater amounts to today's biggest bitcoin buyers, ETFs and corporate treasuries, in an "orderly" and "well managed" shift in dynamics, according to 10x Research's Markus Thielen. "There is this change of ownership happening," said Thielen, CEO of the digital assets investment research firm. "We are not seeing a lot of real demand right now because the demand has been almost perfectly offset by the selling from these larger wallets." Data from CryptoQuant shows that wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 bitcoins have been the biggest buyers this year. Julio Moreno, head of research at the firm, said bitcoin ETFs likely fall into that cohort. Meanwhile, whales (wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins) and megawhales (which CryptoQuant labels as humpbacks and whose wallets hold more than 10,000 coins) have been net sellers this year. Retail investors, wallets holding less than a bitcoin, have also been sellers. The two whale cohorts have been setting the bitcoin price for weeks. As long as buying from the 100-to-1,000-BTC holders outpaces the selling from the bigger whales, bitcoin's muted rally can continue, Thielen explained. If the opposite happens, momentum fades and the rally stalls, he said. Moreno highlighted that historically, whales have been regarded as having 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoin in a wallet. However, since the launch of bitcoin ETFs and the emergence of the bitcoin treasury companies, the number of so-called dolphins, as CryptoQuant labels the 100-1,000-BTC cohort, have grown because those institutions tend to spread their bitcoin holdings across many smaller wallets. For example, BlackRock and Strategy have about 550 and 490 unique wallet addresses, respectively, with an average of 1,290 coins per wallet for BlackRock and 927 for MicroStrategy, according to 10x Research. "In reality, these entities are in fact large holders, having purchased thousands of bitcoin," Moreno said. The biggest bitcoin holders are likely miners based in China. From 2013 to 2021, China accounted for as much as 75% of the global hashrate, or the measure of the computational power being used to secure the Bitcoin network and validate transactions. To date 19.9 million bitcoins have been mined. Chinese mining companies account for approximately 11 million to 15 million coins created in that period. They still retain control of at least 5 million coins, according to 10x Research. "In all the other previous peaks, these dormant wallets were waking up and sending bitcoin onto exchanges for liquidation," he said. "But this time, so far, it seems that these wallets are holding – holding tight and only releasing as many bitcoin as can be scooped up by ETFs and by Strategy." While Strategy, which rebranded this year from MicroStrategy, remains the biggest corporate buyer of bitcoin, its acquisition cadence has slowed from the more aggressive levels seen last year, due in part to its narrowing stock premium and increasing competition in corporate treasury adoption of bitcoin. "If megawhale selling accelerates further, a deeper correction is likely," Thielen said. "Conversely, if selling pressure eases while whale accumulation picks up, the next leg of the rally could begin." "At the moment, the imbalance creates a slight bearish bias, making a breakout unlikely without a clear shift in our tactical flow indicator. Until that signal improves, consolidation is expected to continue."
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets hold steady as inflation data cools rate hike fears
Markets hold steady as inflation data cools rate hike fears originally appeared on TheStreet. The May CPI report came in softer than expected, offering a reassuring signal for markets. The second month-over-month headline inflation increase was only 0.1% compared to the expected increase of 0.2%. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) was also up only 0.1%, below this month's expected increase of 0.3%. All of the above was on a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was reported at 2.4%, which was exactly where it was expected, while Core CPI was 2.8% year-over-year, just below the expected 2.9%. The weak core implies moderating underlying price pressures and could give the Fed some cover to cut rates if necessary later this year. Global markets were on the edge of their seats with only minutes to go until the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. According to analysts at 10x Research, although today's data will be the first to account for the effects of President Donald Trump's re-imposition of tariffs, they expect a "flat or modestly higher" CPI, which should minimize concerns about a significant uptick in inflation. While there were initial concerns that companies would pass the tariffs on to consumers, it now seems likely that companies will absorb the costs associated with the tariffs. Although they are likely to have considerable inventory, stockpiling has not yet elevated prices. "For the bearish narrative to regain traction, a new catalyst is needed," they claim. According to Bitunix analysts, it could be a pivotal time for crypto. If inflation surprises on the upside, Bitcoin could test support at $106,000. At the other end, if inflation comes in 'cooler' than expected, Bitcoin prices could see resistance at $110,350. 'Short-term movements will remain event-driven,' they say, with the market largely awaiting signals from the Fed around interest rate policy. Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,225, unchanged for the day, while Ethereum trades at $2,766.83 and Solana has gained 2.2% to $164.22 in the last 24 hours. The total crypto market cap is $3.56 trillion, down 1.4% during the previous 24 hours. With CPI expectations 'finely tuned' and the Fed expected to remain on the sidelines, traders are preparing for volatility. But until a stronger inflation print—or a new macro catalyst—emerges, markets may remain in consolidation mode. Markets hold steady as inflation data cools rate hike fears first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 11, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 11, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Faces Bearish June Seasonality as ETF Flows Slow
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies continue to offer little directional clarity to traders, with inflows into spot ETFs slowing during the seasonally bearish period. According to 10x Research, June tends to be a mixed-to-negative month for the largest tokens. Bitcoin has averaged a 1.9% return in June over the past 10 years, evenly split between five positive and five negative occurrences. Ethereum's ether (ETH) averaged an 11.7% decline, with only two out of the last seven Junes in the green. XRP has fared even worse, though SOL has been stronger. The apathy is reflected in the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which recorded net inflows in only two of the past five trading days. Inflows on Wednesday were just $87 million, a sharp decline from Tuesday's $387 million, SoSoValue data show. Ether ETFs recorded a net inflow of $57 million, the least since May 21. "The weakening pace of institutional flows confirms a loss of momentum — and makes us more cautious on the short-term outlook," Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, said in an email. Other analysts, however, remain optimistic, citing the rapid pace of institutional adoption. "Despite the seasonal summer lull, the structural backdrop remains intact," QCP Capital said. "With both BTC and ETH emission rates now trailing global money supply growth, a long-term positive price drift appears increasingly probable. Fresh treasury buyers are absorbing supply." The firm also noted the relative strength in ether as the ETH-BTC ratio trades close to the recent range highs. The crypto news flow over the past 24 hours has been positive. Circle, the issuer of the regulated USDC stablecoin, priced its initial public offering at $31 per share, above the expected range of $24 to $26. The company sold around 34 million shares in the offering for a valuation of $1.1 billion. The California Assembly approved the AB-1052 bill, classifying long-inactive crypto assets as 'unclaimed property' and allowing the state to hold them in custody. Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham said that a whale address supposedly linked to Consensys purchased $320 million in ETH from Galaxy Digital and transferred it to a new address. Economic developments, however, have been dismal. Three soft U.S. economic reports, including the Fed's Beige book, sent the Treasury yields tumbling, reviving hopes for the Fed rate cut. Stay alert! Crypto June 5, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Circle (CRCL), issuer of stablecoin USDC, begin trading on the NYSE. The IPO priced that stock at $31 apiece, valuing the company at $6.9 billion. June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project's history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6. June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on "DeFi and the American Spirit" June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol. June 16 (market open): 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged. Macro June 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 31. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 240K Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1910K vs. Prev. 1919K June 5: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets President Donald Trump in the Oval Office to discuss tariffs, defense, Ukraine. June 6, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Prev. -0.62% PPI YoY Prev. 8.37% June 6, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May employment data . Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9% Employment Change Est. -15K vs. Prev. 7.4K June 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May employment data. Non Farm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 177K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2% Government Payrolls Prev. 10K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -1K vs. Prev. -1K Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None in the near future. Governance votes & calls Arbitrum DAO is voting on whether to adjust the 7 million ARB delegated to Event Horizon following its pivot to AI-driven governance. Voting ends June 5. Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to fund the integration of Uniswap V4 and Unichain support in Oku. The goal is to expand V4 adoption, support hook developers and improve tools for liquidity providers and traders. Voting ends June 6. June 5, 9 a.m.: PancakeSwap to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on security. June 5, 10 a.m.: TON to host a builders call, decentralized finance edition. June 10, 10 a.m.: to host an analyst call followed by a Q&A session. June 11, 7 a.m.: Cronos Labs lead Mirko Zhao to participate in a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session. Unlocks June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $54.40 million. June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $13.36 million. June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.08 million. June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.71 million. June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $32.91 million. June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $42.47 million. June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $11.02 million. Token Launches June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon's sunsetting process ends June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN). The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Day 4 of 6: SXSW London Day 3 of 3: Money20/20 Europe 2025 (Amsterdam) Day 2 of 3 Non Fungible Conference (Lisbon) Day 1 of 2: 2025 Crypto Valley Conference (Zug, Switzerland) June 14: Incrypted Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv) June 19-21: BTC Prague 2025 June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute's Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington) June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week By Shaurya Malwa DEGO nosedived roughly 60% to $1.26 on June 4–5 after the BNB Chain-based Dego protocol said it would buy World Liberty Financial's stablecoin, USD1, as a treasury reserve and seed a DEGO/USD1 pool on BNB Chain. Chain sleuths found 93% of USD1's circulating supply parked in just three wallets. Traders are concerned the pair's depth, and therefore DEGO's new price floor, could be yanked at any moment, sparking 'exit-liquidity' accusations. Dego Finance said in a Thursday tweet that 'fundamentals, tokenomics, long-term vision" were unchanged and pinned the price collapse on 'short-term market psychology." The team claimed it is auditing on-chain flows and liaising with exchanges/market makers to dampen volatility. Skeptics warned of 'ghost liquidity' and urge the team to court more reputable stablecoins such as USDT, FDUSD and USDC before deploying treasury funds. Dego will publish a post-mortem and treasury-transparency dashboard 'within days,' host an AMA with core devs, and outline additional safeguards (e.g., time-locked treasury moves, multi-sig sign-offs) to rebuild confidence. Growth in CME-listed BTC and ETH futures open interest has stagnated this month, leaving the annualized one-month basis between 5% and 10%. The figures show that institutions have scaled back demand. Binance's 1000SHIB perpetual futures and BCH perpetual futures show negative funding rates in a sign of bearish bias. Other major tokens, including BTC and ETH, continue to trade with mildly bullish or positive funding rates. On Deribit, the BTC call bias has weakened across multiple time frames. Still, higher strike BTC calls continue to dominate the 24-hour volume rankings. Institutional flows on OTC network Paradigm featured outright put buying in June and July expiries and calendar spreads. BTC is up 0.25% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $104,909.52 (24hrs: -0.79%) ETH is unchanged at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.02%) CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 3,086.55 (24hrs: +0.81%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05% BTC funding rate is at 0.0041% (4.4435% annualized) on Binance DXY is unchanged at 99.82 Gold futures are up 1.15% at $3,412.40/oz Silver futures are up 3.61% at $35.76/oz Nikkei 225 closed -0.51% at 37,554.49 Hang Seng closed +1.07% at 23,906.97 FTSE is up 0.19% at 8,817.89 Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 5,429.08 DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.22% at 42,427.74 S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,970.81 Nasdaq Composite closed +0.32% at 19,460.49 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.37% at 26,329.00 S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.71% at 2,560.51 U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.35% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 5,985.25 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.08% at 21,784.5 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.12% at 42,550.00 BTC Dominance: 64.16 (0.00%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02487 (-0.12%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 900 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $52.7 Total Fees: 4.7 BTC / $496,562 CME Futures Open Interest: 145,655 BTC BTC priced in gold: 30.9 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 8.76% The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has dived out of an ascending trendline from early April lows. The breakdown suggests more losses ahead, which could ease financial conditions, powering BTC higher. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $378.10 (-2.41%), +0.28% at $379.15 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $256 (-1.12%), +0.48% at $257.23 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.49 (+4.76%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.67 (+2.22%), -0.26% at $15.63 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.5 (+5.2%), unchanged in pre-market Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.56 (+6.44%), +0.64% at $12.64 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.53 (+3.47%), -0.21% at $9.51 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.19 (+7.09%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.76 (+0.51%) Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.93 (-9.78%), +7.43% at $28.93 Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flow: $87 million Cumulative net flows: $44.55 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: $57 million Cumulative net flows: $3.30 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.73 million Source: Farside Investors Bitcoin is expected to create several times more wealth for holders than any other asset, including gold, over the next 10 years, according to Bitwise. Prices are reflexive, meaning expectations of higher valuations can actually draw buyers, leading to a self-fulfilling cycle. Big Investors Shift Away From U.S. Markets (Financial Times): Concerned by debt risks and volatile trade policy, major investors are trimming U.S. exposure and shifting toward Europe, where political stability and infrastructure plans are drawing fresh capital. Bitcoin's 50-Day Average Hits Record High, but There's a Catch (CoinDesk): ETF-driven buying has cooled and profit taking is rising, narrowing the gap between spot and trend levels and increasing the risk of a pullback toward $100,000. Hong Kong Set to Allow Crypto Derivatives Trading (CoinDesk): Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission is reportedly planning to open crypto derivatives trading to professional investors, tapping a market that saw $21 trillion in Q1 volume — far outpacing spot activity. Coinbase Unlocks DeFi Opportunities for XRP and Dogecoin Holders on Base (CoinDesk): Coinbase debuted wrapped versions of XRP and DOGE — cbXRP and cbDOGE — on its Base blockchain. As Drones Transform Warfare, NATO May Be Vulnerable (The New York Times): Ukraine's drone blitz deep inside Russia has prompted NATO to assess its own vulnerabilities, with Cornell's James Patton Rogers calling it a glimpse into how future wars may unfold. Germany's Leader Has a Message for Trump: We Need You, but You Also Need Us (The Wall Street Journal): Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Trump to revive trade talks, back stronger Russia sanctions and highlight Berlin's expanding defense outlays ahead of key NATO and G7 summits. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
