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The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip
An already active start to the 2026 cycle has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks with a major retirement announcement, the passage of a key GOP priority and moves by candidates that could further scramble the chess board. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made waves in the lead-up to the passage of President Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' by announcing he would not be seeking a third term next year, throwing the party's push of retaining the seat in flux. That was only a prelude, however, to the GOP getting its mammoth tax and spending package over the finish line by July 4, with the newly minted law set to potentially play a far-reaching role as Democrats try to tether Republicans to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts that were included. Here's a mid-summer look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. North Carolina By far the biggest change on this list is to the top spot as Tillis's decision to retire has further opened the door to Democrats being able to flip a seat they have long been eyeing. The seat was always considered a top-level race for both sides of the aisle, but the removal of the battle-tested incumbent from the field makes the effort more difficult for the GOP. In one clear sign of how tight the race is likely to be, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up' after Tillis's announcement. Adding to the problems for Republicans is that the news seems to have pushed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) closer to taking the plunge, potentially giving the minority party an A-level recruit and a real chance to flip the seat. Cooper, the former two-term governor, has never lost a statewide race in six attempts. On the GOP side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump and a Tar Heel State native. In the eyes of multiple Republican strategists, the nomination is hers if she wants it — but whether she wants it is an entirely different question. Lara Trump had a chance to run for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in 2022, but passed on the opportunity. She was also floated as a possible appointee to fill the Senate seat of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ultimately tapped Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), an ally, instead. 'Lara Trump's very viable,' Budd recently told reporters at the Capitol, shooting down concerns that she has not lived in the state in many years. 'She's from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.' 'There's a great case to be made if she wants it. We of course would be supportive,' he added. Republicans also see an added bonus to her running: the chance to get the Trump name on the ballot, even in a midterm year. 'She has a golden last name and it's still a light red state,' one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said. Georgia It's still early in the cycle, but Republican recruiting woes have emerged in several states, headlined by Georgia. The GOP is still in the throes of trying to figure out who will take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in a state where Republicans believe they have a real chance of flipping a seat that they shouldn't have lost in the first place. The GOP got its first major blow of the cycle when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced in May that he was sidestepping a Senate bid. Since then, it's been a real struggle for Republicans to find a top-tier candidate who could topple the incumbent Democrat. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has already launched a campaign, but that has done little to stop top Republicans from looking elsewhere for their party's solutions. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) indicated that he is taking a long, hard look at a bid. Some Republicans are also hoping that Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, a former House member, gets the campaign itch once again. 'Georgia's going to be really tough. … Ossoff is not the best candidate, but he's figured out the way to make it work for himself and the state is changing. It's going to be very difficult,' said a second GOP operative who has worked on Senate races. 'You feel worse about Georgia than you do North Carolina — for sure,' the operative said 'Who's going to emerge [in the primary]? I think Jon Ossoff's a better candidate than I think people anticipated when he first got elected.' 'Not having Brian Kemp hurts,' the operative added. In fact, Democrats see Ossoff being a real net-positive in this race, especially given the uncertainty on the GOP side. Putting icing on the cake, the first-term Democrat raised more than $10 million between April and June, marking his second consecutive quarter with an eight-figure haul. He has $15.5 million in the bank. 'He's passionate. He cares. He fights for his state. … 'He's committed. He listens to them. He hears what their challenges are and he comes here to solve those problems,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) when Ossoff won his race in 2020. 'That's a recipe for success in your state. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the only Republican defending a seat in a blue state next year, has had a difficult month. First, Republicans were able to pass the 'big, beautiful bill' without her support, putting her on record opposing cuts to Medicaid that could harm rural hospitals — but on the defensive back home about the GOP bill. Most recently, she voted against a White House request to claw back funding after repeatedly warning that the Trump administration was not going into enough detail about the impact of the cuts, which largely impact foreign aid and public broadcasters. As Senate Appropriations Committee chair, she is also trying to shepherd government funding through Congress amid accusations from Democrats that Republicans are poisoning the well with the bill to claw back funds. Democrats allege Collins is intentionally making moves to appeal to both sides. 'It's not an accident that Susan Collins is failing to stop the toxic GOP agenda,' said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party, in a statement. 'It's a carefully orchestrated political ploy to keep her seat while cutting Medicaid and delivering tax giveaways to billionaires. 'At the end of the day, Donald Trump and Washington Republicans know Susan Collins will have their back,' he added. Amid all of that, though, Collins can take solace at a few things heading into the second half of summer. A poll conducted by Pan Atlantic Research in May of 840 likely voters found her favorability rating four points above water in Maine And Democrats still do not have a candidate ready to take her on. Many in the party are pinning their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) taking the plunge, but the 77-year-old has given little oxygen to the idea of a run. Absent Mills, the options are limited. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) made clear months ago he has no plans of challenging Collins. For now, the best chance for Democrats to take Collins down is seemingly for her to opt for retirement. Senate Republicans and operatives, however, believe she will seek a sixth term and find it hard to believe she will depart only months after securing the Appropriations gavel — her dream job. They also know that without her, the seat is most likely gone. Texas The Lone Star State is the lone new inclusion on the list as questions surround the political future of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Cornyn finds himself down by double digits in numerous polls to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), sparking fears among the GOP that Democrats have a real opening to nab a white whale: a Senate seat in Texas. To be sure, the four-term incumbent has a long history of success, especially in general elections. He's also a prolific fundraiser. Still, Republicans are nervous about whether he can overcome his opponent, who has been a MAGA stalwart — and who they believe will be a weaker general election candidate. 'Worried,' one Senate Republican told The Hill when asked about the mood within the GOP conference about Cornyn's reelection chances, adding that members are also concerned about the amount of money it will cost to help lift him out of the polling hole. Cornyn is facing a crucial stretch as his supporters go to the airwaves in a bid to determine the path forward. A Cornyn super PAC went up on the air on Wednesday, the first of a series of expected ads that is part of an effort to improve Cornyn's numbers and damage Paxton's. According to a third GOP operative, the hope is for some clarity in the race to arrive around Labor Day. Texas notoriously has an early candidate filing deadline — Dec. 8 this year. In that time, Cornyn's team must quickly figure out a cohesive message (or messages) to wield against Paxton, who is considered a walking opposition-research book among many Republicans even as he has an intense backing amongst some MAGA voters. The Texas AG was acquitted by the state Senate in 2023 after allegations of political bribery. He was also charged with securities fraud in 2015, with those eventually being dismissed earlier this year. Those problems were only highlighted in recent weeks when Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator and Paxton's wife, filed for divorce 'on biblical grounds,' citing 'recent discoveries.' 'The hard part of running against Ken Paxton … is there are so many things — it's hard to know which thing you have to center on,' the third GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said, arguing that chipping away at the populist Christian vote is crucial for the incumbent. This has prompted GOP leaders to prod Trump in search of an endorsement to boost Cornyn, but even the senator has admitted that doesn't seem to be coming yet. According to the strategist, Trump has made it clear in recent weeks that if he endorses anyone, it would likely be Cornyn. Awaiting the eventual nominee will likely be former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost last year to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 8.5 percentage points even with massive Democratic spending in the state. If Paxton emerges to the general election, both sides of the aisle view this as a competitive race. 'Right now, it looks like Ken Paxton wins that primary, at least on paper. The other thing that same piece of paper shows is that Colin Allred beats Ken Paxton — and it can happen,' the second GOP operative said. Some are pushing back on that narrative, however. 'Even with the worst case scenario in Texas, the fundamentals remain solidly red just more expensive,' one national Republican strategist said. Michigan The battle to replace the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) rounds out the list as Democrats find themselves in the midst of a nasty primary while top Republicans look to avoid one by boosting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), their preferred candidate. Democrats are in the early stages of a three-way primary between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens has opened the race as a slight favorite according to early surveys, with McMorrow and El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), trailing not far behind as they attempt to stake out their lanes and boost their name-ID in quick order. When asked to handicap the race, GOP operatives largely agreed on three things: that Stevens would be the toughest general election opponent, McMorrow has the biggest boom-or-bust potential in the field and that the best chance for Republicans to flip the seat involves El-Sayed becoming the nominee. 'He's going to invigorate their base. You've got to draw a stark contrast and you've got to hope you win enough independents. That's the game,' the first GOP operative said about El-Sayed. 'You need someone who's going to terrify our base.' Still, Rogers remains a question mark for some Republicans as they wonder why he could be successful this cycle after not being able to get across the finish line last year, when Trump was on the ballot and the environment was considered more favorable for Republicans. 'I don't know what changes that gives us an edge without him on the ballot,' the second strategist said. Some of Rogers' woes from the 2024 bid are also cropping up this cycle, headlined by lackluster fundraising that prompted complaints from many corners of the party during his initial Senate run. The former congressman only raised $745,000 in the second quarter and has $1.1 million in the bank. He raised an additional $779,000 for his joint fundraising account. By contrast, Stevens, McMorrow and El Sayed posted at least $1.8 million hauls, with the congresswoman leading the way with $2.8 million — $1.5 million of which was transferred from her House account. Rogers also might be facing a primary in short order as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is gearing up for a challenge. Still, while it's been decades since a Republican won a Senate seat in Michigan, the national Republican strategist contended the state is trending in their direction. The strategist noted that Sen. Elise Slotkin (D-Mich.), who defeated Rogers in 2024, won by less than 0.5 points after having the benefit of evading a competitive primary. 'While some speculate Texas is trending blue, the data tells a different story—Michigan remains the more competitive battleground,' the strategist said. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
New York Times
10-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Auburn, Oklahoma among Power 4 programs playing catch-up in recruiting
There will be some high-profile recruits who make decisions in the coming weeks as their senior seasons approach, and of course, there will be flips as we get closer to the early signing period. But now that we've moved past June and the July Fourth commitment wave, we have a pretty good idea of where each program stands in the 2026 recruiting cycle. Advertisement Programs like Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Texas A&M and others have had strong summers. But today, we're focusing on the teams that have been less fortunate over the past few weeks. Let's examine which programs still have much to do to reach their standards. (Note: All rankings are from the 247Sports Composite.) The Tigers have signed top-10 classes each of the past two recruiting cycles. For the most part, coach Hugh Freeze has made good on the unofficial mandate he received when he was hired: Get Auburn's recruiting back to where it needs to be. His 'worst' class ranked 18th back in the 2023 cycle, and he had just weeks to really build that one. So it's pretty staggering to look at the 2026 team rankings and see Auburn in the 70s, hovering around Oregon State and Toledo. The Tigers hold just eight commitments, which is a factor in the lower ranking. A majority of the programs in the top 25 have at least 15 commitments in their class. But Auburn has to play catch-up elsewhere, too. Only three of the Tigers' eight commitments are blue-chip prospects. Their average player rating is 89.16, which is not horrible but not where a program needs to be to compete at a high level in the SEC. Auburn's average player rating was 91.57 in 2025 and 92.10 in 2024. The Tigers did flip four-star quarterback Peyton Falzone from Penn State in late June and landed four-star linebacker Adam Balogoun-Ali, but that's the only real splash they've made. They've also had three blue-chip commits flip to other programs in recent weeks. Freeze and Auburn athletic director John Cohen addressed recruiting, House settlement interpretations and roster-building methods with reporters last week. Freeze alluded to Auburn needing to pay to retain players on the current roster, which impacts how much they'll spend recruiting. Advertisement Cohen mentioned Aug. 1 as a critical date. 'Aug. 1 is the first day a prospective student-athlete can receive (a financial) offer on paper,' Cohen said. 'That's a big day. It's not a rumor. It's not innuendo. It's not this person said this. It's an offer on paper. We're a good distance away from Aug. 1st and a really good distance away from December.' We'll know where Freeze stands in December. He's just 11-14 through two seasons as Auburn's coach and needs to dramatically improve to cast aside doubts about his future with the Tigers. That uncertainty likely hasn't helped on the recruiting trail either. Another situation where a coach's future with the program is far from certain. Brent Pry is just 16-21 in three seasons as the Hokies' coach, and Virginia Tech underwhelmed when it had pretty high expectations in 2024. So, Pry badly needs wins. It's going to be difficult to achieve recruiting at this rate. Pry's first four classes were all ranked somewhere between 35th and 45th nationally. The Hokies landed a commitment from homegrown four-star offensive lineman Thomas Wilder, which was a good step. But Wilder is the only blue-chip pledge in Virginia Tech's class. He's the only commitment the Hokies have ranked in the top 500. Virginia Tech's average player rating is just 86.24 ahead of only Wake Forest, NC State and Virginia in the ACC. The Hokies have received just nine verbal pledges this cycle, which is another contributing factor to the low ranking. Virginia is the only program in the ACC within that range with just 11 commitments. Everyone else in the league has at least 15 commits. From an in-state perspective, Virginia Tech has commitments from just three of the state's 25 top prospects (none are among the top 10). Michigan and Penn State each have three, too. Rutgers and Syracuse have two. Virginia Tech has to make up a lot of ground over the next few months because there's not much to celebrate on the trail right now — other than to take solace in how rival Virginia (ranked 77th nationally, next to last in the ACC) isn't far ahead. We've highlighted slow starts from the Tigers in the past. But Missouri generally finishes well enough. The Tigers have signed the 20th-ranked class in the past two cycles. So we're not too worried about Missouri's recruiting, especially after winning 21 games over the past two seasons, but it must climb between now and December. In 2024, the Tigers signed eight blue-chip prospects. They followed that up by signing 11 in 2025. Advertisement Missouri has commitments from just four blue-chip prospects right now, so it's off the pace from its recent efforts. The Tigers' class currently is only 10 members deep. South Carolina owns the same total, but it has seven blue-chip commits. It's not that Missouri hasn't been active recently. It's picked up eight commitments since June. But the Tigers started from such a low point (only two commits entering the summer), they have quite the hole to dig out of. We'll see where they eventually land. With roster limits set at 105 players now, the Cornhuskers have to keep this class relatively small in order to meet the threshold in future years. They're at 126, including players who would have been cut if the roster size was strictly enforced, per The Athletic's Mitch Sherman. Nebraska has 12 commitments presently. That would be fine, but with a small class, a program's margin for error dwindles. The fewer players, the more the misses hurt. Of the Cornhuskers' 12 commitments, nine are ranked outside the top 500. So Nebraska's fan base must trust coach Matt Rhule's evaluations and development because it will have to turn prospects who might be longer-term projects into real contributors. The Cornhuskers' average player rating is just 88.00. Without more high-end talent in the class, the program must walk a thin line to produce winners. The Gamecocks are here mainly because of volume. South Carolina has missed on recruiting targets, but its average player rating is still 91.18. The issue is that the Gamecocks have just 10 commitments. As noted earlier, seven of those prospects are blue-chippers, including two in the top 100. South Carolina has genuine momentum as a program coming off a nine-win season, and expectations are high this year with star quarterback LaNorris Sellers. So it would've been logical to assume the Gamecocks would be higher in team rankings, but we'll see when/if they can make the jump this cycle. Advertisement Coach Shane Beamer has usually been good for some splashes later in the recruiting calendar. If South Carolina can assemble the season its fans hope for, it'll likely get more high-profile pledges. The Gamecocks seem on track to land a commitment from four-star quarterback and top-100 prospect Landon Duckworth. Duckworth was committed to South Carolina before reopening his recruitment, and it seems like the two sides will reunite. That will provide a boost the Gamecocks need. The Sooners have had solid additions this summer, headlined by four-star quarterback Bowe Bentley, who is also a top-100 prospect. Bentley was one of five blue-chip commitments Oklahoma has received since June. The Sooners have been active, landing 15 commitments, but nearly half of the class (seven prospects) is ranked 500th or lower. Their average player rating is 88.72. As noted with Nebraska, that formula is a more difficult path to success. But similar to other programs mentioned, there's uncertainty with the head coach. Brent Venables must display notable improvement this season after having losing records in two of his first three years as the Sooners' coach. It doesn't help that Oklahoma has an extremely difficult schedule. That sort of doubt always makes things tougher when recruiting. Fortunately for the Sooners, they don't have as high to climb as other programs on this list, but it's still a difficult path forward considering the thing that could really boost recruiting — stability — will occur only by winning games. The Buffaloes would deserve more examination under normal circumstances, but this sort of recruiting is what we've come to expect from Deion Sanders. Colorado has clearly emphasized the transfer portal and has been very selective in recruiting. The Buffaloes have just six commitments, with only one blue-chip pledge. Advertisement Sanders has typically landed some high-profile commitments late in the process, so it would not be a shock to see him add some top talent as we get closer to December. But the program will simply never finish too high in the recruiting rankings because of its approach. (Photo of Auburn coach Hugh Freeze (left) and Oklahoma coach Brent Venables: Jake Crandall / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
