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3 days ago
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Fantasy Football: What makes a first-round bust? Examining the RB and WR positions over the years
By Jennifer Eakins, 4for4 As drafters, we expect our first couple of picks to be automatic, players who will sit atop any roster at the end of the season. Their contribution should be impactful, one that can be counted on every time they take the football field. Of course, it wouldn't be fantasy football without an early-round player getting injured during the preseason or the first couple of weeks of the regular season, sending them to the sidelines for a significant amount of games, or even ending their entire season before it even began. Sadly, those premature injuries are an inevitable part of the game, something fantasy owners really can't do anything about. But what about the guys who are drafted within the first few rounds who just don't pan out as expected? That significant drop in points can easily be a difference-maker throughout the season, considering those players' projections were among the top in the league. If we could somehow predict which players forecasted among the first two rounds would falter, or produce much less than their expectations, we could get an edge on the competition and save ourselves some heartache along the way. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] When examining the characteristics of an early-round bust, I decided to look at players selected in Rounds 1 and 2 from 2015–2024, in an attempt to find any correlations in their seasons. For this article, only WRs and RBs were used, as their sample size is much larger in these rounds, plus elite QBs and TEs very rarely bust unless they're off the shelf due to injury. In order to get candidates with true fantasy failures, all players must have been on the field for at least 10 games that season, eliminating players with significant injuries. To qualify as a bust, players must have ended the season at least 10 spots below their positional average draft position and/or posted at least 100 points below their projected output. Running Backs Busts (2015-2024) Just 17 backs fit the criteria outlined above from 2015 through the 2024 season, with two coming from last year. Poor Offensive Lines, Lack of Targets, or Just Not Very Good? Looking back at 2015, three RBs earned a spot at the early-round-underperformer table: Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, and Jeremy Hill. Lacy's ADP was an inflated 1.04 right after Adrian Peterson, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell that season. What should have been an RB3 scenario ended with just 758 rushing yards and five total touchdowns — enough to finish as the RB45 in half-PPR points per contest. The Packers' offense was mediocre, finishing 15th in total offense and 27th in yards per play. Perhaps their offensive line was to blame, as Aaron Rodgers was sacked 46 times in 2015, the fifth-most in the league. Lacy's target deficiency may have also played a part in his underwhelming numbers. With only 28 total, he ended 2015 as the 51st-most targeted RB in the NFL, something a top-tier RB rarely finds success with. Anderson was on the Super Bowl-winning Broncos offense in 2015, yet ended the season as the RB47 in half-PPR points per game. Coming off a year where he posted RB10 numbers, Anderson's ADP was 1.11, the sixth-highest at his position. What went wrong for the third-year back? It appears as though Denver's porous offensive line could have played a part here, as the tandem of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler were sacked 39 times, the 13th-most in the NFL, inhibiting Anderson from gaining any ground. He also only averaged 11.8 touches per game, 42nd among RBs that season. Hill is an interesting one, as he led his offense in rushing yards and was 13th in total touches among RBs, but posted a pedestrian 3.6 rushing yards per attempt. The Bengals were first in the AFC North with a 12-4 record and ranked seventh in total offense in the league. Is it possible he just wasn't that good at football? I'm going with yes. Lamar Miller was the only RB in 2016 to bear the bust moniker. As the fourth RB off the board at 1.10, Miller ended the season as the RB18 in half-PPR points per game. Once again, a rough offensive line that allowed the 22nd-most sacks came into play. Having Osweiler under center didn't exactly help either. Surprisingly, Miller's 21.4 touches per game were among the most in the league in 2016, yet he couldn't get it done with a mediocre 4.0 rushing yards per attempt. Like the others, his targets were on the low end, ranking a disappointing 34th among backs that season. In 2017, we saw two RBs not meet the expectations of their elevated ADPs. Jay Ajayi was drafted at the start of the second round, with an ADP of 2.02. He played for two different teams, after being traded from the Dolphins to the Eagles midway through the season. In Miami, Ajayi averaged 19.7 attempts per game only to be reduced to 10 per contest in Philadelphia. Offensive line was not an issue for either team. It appears that a lack of targets could have been his downfall. With only 34 total targets on the season, Ajayi ranked 46th at his position, as he was thrown to nearly 80 times fewer than the RB target leaders. In turn, he tumbled 29 spots in positional ADP and put up more than 100 half-PPR points fewer than projected at the start of to Hill above, DeMarco Murray's slide seems to be more of a lack of elite talent, as opposed to a system issue. The Titans ranked 15th in rushing and 19th in total offense in 2017, clinching a wild-card spot with a 9-7 record. We can blame some of Murray's lack of production on his target share, as he ended the season as the RB20 in overall targets; however, he led Tennessee's backfield, nearly tripling the number of targets that sophomore Derrick Henry saw. In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire shot up draft boards after Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID concerns. Based on Andy Reid's history of featuring lead backs, it was all systems go for CEH as the RB9 during draft season. The rookie did lead the Chiefs in total touches with 217 (15.5 per game) but didn't live up to expectations in fantasy land. We certainly can't blame the Chiefs' offense, as they posted the most yards and the sixth-highest point total of any unit in the league. The 23-year-old's 4.4 yards per attempt was 27th among ball carriers, and his rushing yards after contact ranked 19th. He wasn't awful, but he just wasn't worthy of a mid-second-round pick. In 2021, there was just one guy on a really bad offense, Saquon Barkley, and CEH was back in the mix for the second straight season. I'll start with our repeat offender, Edwards-Helaire, as he ended the season 15 positional spots below his ADP and nearly 100 half-PPR points behind backfield mate Darrel Williams. CEH missed seven games due to injury, but when on the field, didn't really shine either as a runner or pass-catcher. In fact, when he returned late in the season, the Chiefs gave more work to journeyman Jerick McKinnon, who out-touched CEH 33 to 17 during the postseason, presumably the most important games of the year. The Giants were a complete disaster in 2021, dysfunctional in every sense of the word. Barkley managed to play 13 games but was much less involved in the passing game than in his previous seasons, with just 57 targets, compared to 73 and 121 in the past. While definitely a bust as the RB34 in half-PPR points per contest, Barkley shouldn't field all of the blame for the brutal season, as the New York O-line was among the bottom of the barrel in nearly all statistical categories, including 31st in blown block percentage. In 2022, we added three RBs to this not-so-illustrious list. Jonathan Taylor was the 1.01, and with that, he was obviously the first RB off draft boards. Two major factors led to Taylor's bust campaign, the first being an ankle injury the 24-year-old nursed for the majority of the season, which eventually led to surgery at the end of January. Taylor managed just 861 yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 contests, but was also running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The combo of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles was sacked 60 times, which was second among offenses for a total of 422 yards (1st). Najee Harris probably should not have boasted such a high ADP heading into 2022, as he entered the season with a Lisfranc issue and was rushing behind 4for4's 27th-ranked offensive line. His QB situation wasn't ideal either, with Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett duking it out to replace Ben Roethlisberger. It was a disaster of inefficiency for Harris in 2022 as he posted a mere 3.8 yards per carry, 1.6 yards before contact per carry, and 1.7 yards after contact per carry. In the second half of the season, as Pickett improved, Harris' fantasy output did as well, as he posted RB7 numbers in half-PPR points per game with 14.2 from Weeks 10-18. The 2022 season was a roller coaster for D'Andre Swift and his drafters as he started out white hot, but got hurt after Week 3 and upon return in Week 8, was in the opportunity doghouse and never regained the featured-back role. The 24-year-old was actually efficient when he had the ball, ending fifth in yards per carry and seventh in rushing EPA per carry, but his lack of touches — just 10.5 per game as RB49 — and just five end zone appearances killed his draft value. The following year in 2023 brought three more additions to the early-round RB bust list. The Chargers' offensive line wildly underperformed, which didn't do Austin Ekeler any favors, and he had a rough year in terms of production. An ankle sprain in Week 1 sidelined the RB for three weeks and likely hindered his volume and output for the remainder of the season. Upon return in Week 5, Ekeler saw just 16.2 touches per game (23rd among RBs) and never eclipsed 67 rushing yards with an average combined yards per game of 69.2. LA was 24th in rushing attempts on the season with the 25th most ground yards. We all had such high hopes for Bijan Robinson in his rookie season that he was being drafted in the first half of Round 1 by September. Former Atlanta HC Arthur Smith had his fingerprints all over this "bust" as Robinson sat 27th among RBs in touches per game (15.3), and he was also 37th in rushing attempts within the red zone, while teammate Tyler Allgeier sat 23rd in that last category. It should be no surprise to see Tony Pollard on this list. Given the reins to the Cowboys' backfield prior to the season, he was the eighth RB off draft boards in the second round, yet ended as the RB22 in half-PPR points per contest. Pollard's inefficiency took him down in 2023, as he saw the second-most red zone opportunity behind only Christian McCaffrey (83), yet scored on just five of those 72 looks. As a Cowboy in 2023, Pollard ended 20th in rushing yards per game and 29th in yards after contact per carry (among RBs with a minimum of 70 carries). Last year, only two backs fit the criteria for this article. Breece Hall was coming off an RB7 campaign in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis, and his ADP rocketed up to RB2 as the fourth overall selection in 2024. The Jets ranked 25th in total offense and had the 31st rushing offense in the NFL. New York's O-line didn't exactly help things, as Rodgers was sacked 40 times, which was the ninth most, but Hall himself deserves some blame for the down year, as he posted just 4.2 yards per attempt (29th), the lowest of his career. His yards after contact (YAC) were a site-friendly 444, which came out to 2.1 per attempt, 20th among backs in both metrics. Not surprisingly, after reading all that, Hall ended as the RB18, with just 13.3 half-PPR points per tilt. Travis Etienne was a huge disappointment in 2024, checking in a whopping 37 positional spots lower than his draft stock. He dealt with both shoulder and hamstring issues early in the season, but after missing Weeks 7-8, he played the remainder of the schedule. His inefficiency last year was glaring as the Jags averaged just 1.8 yards after contact per attempt, which was below the league average of 1.9, and he posted just .48 fantasy points per touch, which sat 97th among NFL RBs last season. Etienne had a mere three broken tackles on rushes in 2024, a number that sits below QBs Will Levis and Daniel Jones. So yeah, he wasn't great. The Jets drafted another tackle early this year, which should help Hall, but rumors of a committee have been circulating all offseason. A report from The Athletic's Zack Rosenblatt from mid-June indicated that the Jets don't have an obvious passing option after Garrett Wilson outside of Hall, which could also mean a top-15 workload in 2025. Yahoo ADP has him as the RB14 at pick 35, which seems like an accurate price tag. Etienne's draft stock has fallen significantly in 2025, thanks to his inefficiency in two straight seasons, plus the presence of Tank Bigsby and rookie speedster Bhayshul Tuten. There's still plenty of time for the hierarchy in the RB room to shake out, and Etienne could end up as the Jags' RB1, but for now, he's being drafted as a fantasy RB3/4 as Yahoo's RB39. Wide Receiver Busts (2015-2024) There were 20 wideouts who earned the chance to hear Maury Povich say "You are not a WR1" from 2015-2024, and here's a look at how they potentially got there. Bad Offenses, Bad QBs, and Straight-Up Bad Play Randall Cobb, who was the seventh WR off the board at 2.04, is the lone receiver bust in 2015. Instead of a top-10 finish, the Packers' WR ended the year as the WR27 in half-PPR points, averaging just 10.2 per game. Despite having arguably one of the greatest QBs in the NFL under center, Green Bay's passing offense ranked 25th in 2015, with Rodgers personally sitting as the QB30 in yards per attempt and 26th in completion percentage. Can we blame Cobb's slippage on the poor play of Rodgers in 2015? I think I just did. His wideout didn't exactly help, though, as Cobb posted a paltry 51.8 reception yards per game, and his 61.2% catch rate was 124th among pass-catchers. Four WRs didn't make the grade in 2016: DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery. One thing all four have in common? Brutally bad offenses. In Hopkins's case, the Texans actually won the AFC South and a playoff game, but still managed to end the season ranked 29th in both team and passing offenses. Osweiler's 2.9% TD rate was just two away from dead last among QBs, and he had the basement spot in yards per attempt. Even with Nuk's insane talent, one can't overcome dreadful QB play. While not in the same situation when it came to his team's end-of-season result, Robinson met the same fate in the QB department. The Jaguars went 3-13 in 2016, with the NFL's 25th-ranked team offense. Even all the garbage time theatrics couldn't elevate Blake Bortles from his post as the third-worst QB both in yards per attempt and completion percentage. A-Rob dropped 28 spots from his WR6 ADP to where he eventually finished the season in half-PPR points per game as the WR34. The Jets were a smidge better record-wise in 2016, yet still struggled offensively. With Ryan Fitzpatrick as the signal-caller, New York's team offense ranked 30th, with the 27th-ranked passing offense. The NFL's journeyman extraordinaire sat within the bottom four of almost all passing categories from 2016, including yards per attempt, adjusted yards per passing attempt, TD rate, and completion percentage. Marshall was the seventh WR off the board at 2.01 and brutally finished as the WR56 in half-PPR points per tilt. His output was nearly 100 points fewer than projected for a wideout at his ADP. It seems Jeffery was also a casualty stemming from a poor Bears QB committee in 2016. The insipid trio of Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer, and Jay Cutler combined for a 3.2% TD rate, good enough for 24th among QBs that season. While Jeffery did miss four games due to a banned substance violation, he was still at the lower end of the league in production when on the field. His 4.3 receptions per game ranked 48th, while his 55.3% catch rate came in at a disappointing 157th among receivers. In 2017, we saw another four WRs within the top 10 taken at their position who failed to finish in that same elite category. Mike Evans is sort of a head-scratcher, as the Bucs' passing offense was ranked fourth in the NFL in 2017. He was the top fantasy producer in his offense, yet he ended the season as the WR20 in half-PPR points a game. Jameis Winston missed three games but was fairly effective while on the field, ranking within the top 10 in the majority of QB statistical categories. Evans seemed to have gotten in his own way in 2017, as his 52.2% catch rate was 182nd among pass-catchers. Also, despite finishing 11th at his position in targets, he averaged only 4.7 receptions per game. Jordy Nelson had Brett Hundley tossing the rock for 11 games, translating to a 25th-ranked passing offense for the Packers in 2017. While on the field, Hundley was the fourth-worst in TD rate, second-worst in yards per attempt, and ranked 23rd in completion percentage. Rodgers' numbers were up to par for his standard of play, but that can only go so far in just seven games. Nelson didn't exactly make lemonade from the Hundley situation, as his catch rate was a disappointing 60.2% (130th among pass-catchers). His drop from WR6 to WR53 was a huge one, as his final output was over 100 PPR points fewer than projected during draft season. People are still arguing if Dez Bryant's fall stemmed from a sophomore slide by QB Dak Prescott or simply a loss in step from the veteran wideout. Prescott's numbers were serviceable, ranking 13th in completion percentage, 19th in yards per attempt, and 16th in total passing yards. However, Bryant's numbers weren't so favorable. His 52.3% catch rate ranked 179th among all pass-catchers, while his 12.1 yards per reception ranked 59th. The targets were there, as Bryant posted WR12 numbers in that department, but in the end, he finished as the WR24 in total half-PPR points — 15 spots away from his draft-day ADP. Amari Cooper ended the season 22 spots from his WR10 ADP, with an 81-point differential than projected at the start of 2017. What went wrong for the third-year wideout? Derek Carr's back injury affected him more than he let on, and their 23rd-ranked offense suffered as a result. Carr sat in the lower half of the league in nearly every statistical category, which makes it tough for a WR to achieve elite fantasy status. Cooper was also second to Michael Crabtree in targets with 96 and fourth on the Raiders' offense in target rate per snap. His 50% catch rate didn't exactly help him, as it put him 190th in the league among receivers. After taking 2018 off, three wideouts were deemed busts in 2019 based on our criteria. Falling 58 spots from WR5 to WR63, JuJu Smith-Schuster broke many fantasy hearts in his first year as the Steelers' top dog. He was unable to stay healthy, which didn't help, but the 23-year-old was the victim of a really bad QB bounce, having to catch passes from Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges for all but two contests. Pittsburgh was 27th in total offense and ranked 31st in passing, which is tough to overcome for any WR. The hype was pretty massive surrounding Odell Beckham Jr. and the Browns heading into 2019, and as a result, OBJ was an early second-rounder as WR6. Cleveland's offense did not produce as expected due to a myriad of reasons, with a subpar offensive line certainly among them. They ranked 23rd at the end of 2019, and their ineptitude had a hand in the Browns' offense ending as the 22nd-ranked passing offense. Baker Mayfield also took a step back, which didn't help, posting a 59% completion rate (30th in the NFL) and a 4.1% TD rate, which was in the lower third of the league. Thielen dropped from WR10 in ADP to a WR48 finish in half-PPR per contest scoring. He was only in a uniform for 11 games due to a soft-tissue injury as well as an ankle laceration, but the Vikings went way run-heavy on the season (fourth in the league) even when he was in the game. His catch rate of 62.5% was 135th among pass catchers, which was not ideal. The 29-year-old was a disappointment for those who spent a late second-round pick on him as Thielen failed to crack 100 half-PPR points all season long. Barely qualifying due to injury and only hitting the field 10 times, Hopkins fell 14 WR spots from his WR4 ADP in 2021. His team WR1 status and volume took a monster hit from 2020 to 2021, as he saw 10.0 targets per contest in 2020 to Christian Kirk's 5.6, which dipped down to 6.4 in 2021 with Kirk seeing a similar 6.3 balls per tilt. DK Metcalf shouldn't necessarily shoulder too much blame for his down 2021 season, as Russell Wilson spent Weeks 6-8 on IR due to a surgically repaired finger and was never really the same upon his return. Seattle was 31st in the NFL in pass attempts and 29th in completions, and subsequently, Metcalf's fantasy production took a dive from 14.4 half-PPR points a game in 2020 to 12.2. Just one WR made this column from 2022, and it was 2021's WR2 in both overall half-PPR points and per-game, Deebo Samuel. The addition of Christian McCaffrey took away Samuel's hybrid role in the 49ers' offense, and his volume took a hit, along with his production. The 27-year-old's yards per catch dropped from 18.2 in 2021 to 11.3, and he battled ankle, knee, and hamstring issues on his way to 632 yards on 56 receptions, with another 42 rushes for 232 yards. Bad QB play was the name of the bust game in 2023 for Garrett Wilson, as he was being drafted with the assumption that Aaron Rodgers would be on the field for more than three minutes. Instead, he caught balls from the vanilla trio of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle. With a 25% target share and 43% air yards share, which sat second in the NFL, Wilson flashed potential. Jaylen Waddle posted over 1,000 yards on 104 targets in 14 contests in 2023, but only found the end zone four times all season. He wasn't a huge disappointment, but did finish 13 positional spots below his WR11 ADP, so he counts for this study. Speaking of bad QB play, Tyreek Hill tops the list of WR busts from 2024. Well, we can't blame it all on Tua Tagovailoa, but he was injured for six contests and had the lowest air yards per attempt (5.8) in the NFL last season. Hill did suffer a wrist injury in Week 1 that lingered, but he only had three contests with over 100 receiving yards last year and ended as the WR32 in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis. The Cheetah is now 31 years old, but he's still speedy, and Tagovailoa is healthy, so sleeping on him could be a mistake. Recency and age bias have depressed Hill's ADP to 38th as the WR17. We have a repeat offender alert as Wilson is here again, this time with Rodgers as his QB all season long. He did post career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (7), but did have to compete with Rodgers' bestie Davante Adams for targets. If the Jets lean very run-heavy, which is the expectation, we could see Wilson here for a three-peat, but it's unlikely simply because his ADP is currently outside the top 24 as the WR16 (41st), but he does have the potential for fantasy WR2 output under this new Jets' coaching staff as the clear WR1. I would like to point out what I wrote in this very column last June, before I get into this next guy. Marvin Harrison Jr. will likely have an incredible NFL and fantasy career and may even be solid for rosters in 2024, but with an ADP of 15, he's the highest rookie WR we've seen drafted maybe ever, despite landing in an Arizona offense that's 22nd in projected points this season. The Cardinals attempted 555 passes in 2023, which sat 24th among the league's offenses, and were 29th in pass rate over expected (PROE) and 30th in pass percentage when in neutral game script. Harrison would have to be an absolute beast with a huge step forward (or backward to 2021) from Kyler Murray to return his current draft capital. Yes, I am fully tooting that horn of mine, but Harrison didn't even come close to paying off for drafters, as he finished as WR41. The then-rookie was used as a field stretcher to open things up for TE Trey McBride. This was great for the Arizona offense, but Harrison's utilization was rough for any meaningful production. MHJ has put on some muscle mass this offseason, which should assist in contested catches, and hopefully they get him more involved in the intermediate and short stuff in 2025. Harrison is Yahoo's WR20 at pick No. 44. Potential 2025 Busts I know it's sacrilegious to go against CMC, but I'll take my chances. Yes, he's "fully healthy" after bilateral Achilles tendonitis and a PCL sprain in his knee, and yes, the 49ers have fewer weapons than they have had in previous years. However, we won't get any coach or trainer to say that he's not having great workouts or is not going to be his old self in 2025. That's a wait-and-see thing for all of us. CMC will be 29 at the start of the season, and he's seen a lot of wear and tear on his body with a whopping 1,871 career touches in eight seasons. I liked him a lot better earlier this summer when he was a second-rounder, but after healthy camp reports are making the rounds. McCaffrey is leaving boards at the first/second-round turn as the RB6. Bottom Line When drafting a running back in the first few rounds, which seems on trend again for this season, be sure to check out their offensive line. It's tough to produce if the offense can't get a play off and their quarterback is on the ground. Also, targets matter. They always matter. Wideouts are only as good as the quarterback throwing them the ball, regardless of freakish talent. Sure, athletic ability can get them so far, but to count on the numbers expected from an early-round draft pick, the signal-caller under center is certainly a factor. Look for solid quarterbacks in respectable offenses. Let your league mates grab the big names in not-so-great situations and instead focus on players who are set up for success, not only physically, but by the competency of their teammates.
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football: Regression is coming for these 2 TEs — one way or another
In this installment of the touchdown trends series here at 4for4, we'll be taking a look at the tight end position for fantasy football. As always, the data isn't prophetic — and interpreting it isn't a perfect science — but there's merit in the investigation. Once again, similar to the WR article, the strategy is to evaluate touchdown rates (per target) from various field positions and to spotlight the outlier players on both sides of the sample. Here's a look at the data from the last 10 years to set a baseline. TD Rates by TEs. (Photo by With all this math in mind, here are two names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2025 fantasy drafts. Advertisement T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings 2024 Expected Total TDs - 4.6 2024 Actual Total TDs - 0 Total TDs Below Expectation - 4.6 Hockenson has never been a "Gronkian" tight end, who makes a living in the end zone; his career high for touchdowns in a season is just six (in 2020 and 2022, when he was traded midseason). Still, zero touchdowns on 62 targets in just 10 games ... that's just not right. Among the issues behind Hockenson's 2024 goose egg: he saw just a single end-zone target (and didn't catch it), after averaging seven such targets and more than three TDs per year in that area the prior four seasons. He also saw just eight red-zone targets in total, and (obviously) scored on none of his three receptions. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] It's possible some of the ineffectiveness can be attributed to Hockenson's recovery from the significant knee injury suffered at the end of the 2023 season, which kept him out until Week 9 last year. Year 2 coming off ACL (and MCL in Hockenson's case) injuries tend to be the window where fantasy efficiency returns to normal levels. While the switch to "essentially-rookie" QB J.J. McCarthy does raise some question marks on this Minnesota offense, I'm confident in McCarthy's profile and Kevin O'Connell's coaching. With a fully healthy knee, a proper target share, a functional offense, and a mathematical bump, Hockenson could threaten for his career high in TDs again ... and be a draft value at his current ADP in the 5th-6th rounds. Advertisement Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers 2024 Expected Total TDs - 3.7 2024 Actual Total TDs - 7 Total TDs Above Expectation - 3.3 I'm a pretty established "fader" of Tucker Kraft this season, as I believe the higher-drafted Luke Musgrave returns to threaten his upside, amid a densely overcrowded receiving corps that also includes Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, some amount of Christian Watson and Josh Jacobs. Kraft saw 70 targets last season and scored on a whopping 10% of those targets — nearly double the league average and highest at the position by anyone with 70+ targets. And while it's possible Kraft is just a great player — his 14.1 yards per reception were also elite last year — even great tight ends don't score on 10% of their targets with regularity (excluding Rob Gronkowski, who's several tiers above "great"). [Visit 4for4 for more fantasy football analysis] Target expectations for Kraft in 2025 vary wildly, but John Paulsen's 4for4 projections have him for just 43 catches, which would equate to roughly 60 targets — fewer than he had last season and more or less what I'd expect in this offense. Even if we grant him an above-average touchdown rate — say 7% — that would drop his touchdown total down to four in 2025. Most of this is baked into his current ADP — TE11 — but just keep this in mind when people label him as a "sleeper" or "undervalued." Advertisement This story originally appeared in its full form on
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
These 6 players are seeking a new NFL contract — will that boost their fantasy football performance in 2025?
Special to Yahoo Sports An old fantasy football theory is that players perform better when they are heading into the last year of their contract. A couple of summers ago, the great Brandon Niles did an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon to assess if it held up — you can read it here. Today, I will be adding the information we know about the 2024-25 NFL season to that data in order to identify potential contract-year gems for this upcoming fantasy football season. Advertisement [Visit 4for4 for more fantasy football analysis] Recap: Does the contract-year bump exist? Here's a TLDR on what Brandon took away from looking at contract year data from 2015 to 2022: Quarterbacks: Younger quarterbacks heading into contract years tend to see a jump in production, while older contract-year quarterbacks do not as they are typically journeymen or close to the end of their careers. Running backs: Certain running backs have excelled in contract years, but situation and volume tend to be far better indicators of success than contract status. Wide receivers: Receivers experienced the biggest jumps in production during their contract years. Most successful contract-year receivers were in stable situations (safe depth chart position, continuity in the offense, etc.) Tight ends: There is a smaller sample size for tight ends compared to the other positions, but contract-year tight ends' success is more closely tied to opportunity than anything else. Overall, contract-year status isn't a stand-alone indicator of whether a player will be productive in fantasy or not. It is best used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players to draft. Contract-Year Players from 2024 Quarterbacks Let's first take a look at how contract-year players performed last season to see if our rules still make sense. Note that in the tables below, I did not include players who were given a contract extension during the season (like Dak Prescott) or cut after the season ended (like Aaron Rodgers). Contract-Year QB Performance, 2024. (Chart by Darnold sticks out as a perfect contract year leap example. 2024 was essentially a make-or-break year for Darnold's career, as if he struggled as the Vikings' starter he likely would not have been a starting QB again. Instead, Darnold threw for over 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns as the overall QB9 in fantasy, and was rewarded with a 3-year, $100.5 million contract from the Seahawks in the offseason. Darnold fits nicely alongside Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones and other younger QBs who saved their careers in a contract year after a rough start. Wilson and Fields are a unique case because they split time together as the starter in Pittsburgh, but both of them played well enough in their reps to earn a deal as the starter elsewhere (Wilson with the Giants, Fields with the Jets). Running Backs Contract-Year RB Performance, 2024. (Chart by The 'middle class' of running backs in the NFL is in a weird spot. In years past, a player like Rico Dowdle would have been immensely rewarded for his 2024 breakout season. After entering the season with less than 400 career rush yards, Dowdle stepped up as the Cowboys' starting RB and ran for 1,079 yards, adding 249 through the air. But, Dowdle did not have much of a market at all in free agency, and signed just a 1-year, $6.25 million contract with the Panthers and will split time with Chuba Hubbard next season. Similarly, Najee Harris ran for 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive year in his age-26 season, but only received a 1-year, $5.25 million contract from the Chargers, who went on to draft running back Omarion Hampton in the first round. Advertisement [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Because of the replaceability of running backs compared to other positions, teams have realized they are better off drafting an inexpensive rookie running back rather than paying a starter like Dowdle or Harris, who aren't elite. Moving forward, I think this means that contract-year running backs could become even more important to keep an eye out for, as several of them might truly be playing for their jobs as starters. Wide Receivers Contract-Year WR Performance, 2024. (Chart by It was a generally successful year for contract-year wideouts in 2024. Despite both of them tearing their ACLs halfway through the year, Chris Godwin and Stefon Diggs played well enough in limited time to earn multi-year deals in March. Higgins, after being on the franchise tag for two consecutive years, also put together a great season and earned a 4-year, $115 million extension with the Bengals. Godwin and Higgins' success reinforces the rule that contract-year WRs heavily benefit from situational stability. Advertisement On the flip side, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper all struggled after moving teams at least once during the regular season. Tight Ends Contract-Year TE Performance, 2024. (Chart by It's hard to say that Conklin and Johnson really made a leap in their contract year, as their production is almost perfectly aligned with their prior expectations. As a whole, tight ends continue to be a difficult position to project contract-year leaps with, mainly because their breakout schedules are much more random than other positions. Potential Targets in 2025 Now, let's examine some players entering a contract year in 2025 and assess if they are potential candidates to make a leap and earn a lucrative new contract next spring. Advertisement As you might have expected, a lot of these names come from the 2022 NFL Draft class, as this will be their fourth season in the league. RBs: Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco Hall and Williams are similar to me in that they have shown plenty of signs that they can be a top-10 running back in the league, but need to put it together for one more season to earn an extension. Hall and Williams will need to fend off younger players who are coming for their jobs, as Braelon Allen (4th round) and Blake Corum (3rd round) were all drafted with the intent to at least share time with the starter. Corum has shown less than Allen so I expect Williams to be safe and steady in fantasy once again, but I would not be surprised if Hall is traded during the season if he gets off to a slow start. Pacheco struggled last season and does not profile as an every-down starter, so I would not apply the running back contract bump rule to him. WRs: George Pickens, Deebo Samuel Sr. If I had to pick one player to experience the contract year leap this season, it would be Pickens. After getting traded to the Cowboys because the Steelers refused to give him the contract extension he desired, Pickens has a lot on the line in 2025. If he thrives in Dallas, he would be set up to receive a huge extension similar to Higgins' 4/115 number either from Dallas or another receiver-needy team in free agency. I absolutely love Pickens' fit with the Cowboys as the No. 2 next to CeeDee Lamb, and a healthy Dak Prescott should make this unit a top-10 offense at minimum. I would boost Pickens up in my rankings because of his contract status and actively pursue him in drafts. Advertisement Samuel is set to be a free agent in 2026 after getting traded from the 49ers to the Commanders in the offseason. This season will be a major inflection point for Samuel's career, as he has shown serious signs of decline playing through various injuries in 2023 and 2024. If Samuel can bounce back to something close to his 2021 form, it would extend the 29-year-old's career by at least a few more seasons. Samuel should slot in nicely as the No. 2 receiver next to Terry McLaurin in an electric Commanders offense, and there is also room for him to get touches as a running back as Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler aren't nearly as formidable threats as Christian McCaffrey was. Fully healthy for the first time in a while, Samuel is a great lottery ticket in fantasy this season who is worth applying the contract year boost to. TE: Kyle Pitts Pitts is a 2021 first-round pick who had his fifth-year option picked up, but we still aren't sure if he belongs as a starter in the league. For seemingly the fifth straight year, Pitts should be in a position to succeed in Atlanta. The Falcons' offensive upside as a whole is higher than previous years, with Michael Penix Jr. showing flashes in limited action last season, and Pitts could very well be the No. 2 or No. 3 option in the passing attack behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney. I fully understand being wary of Pitts after all the times he has hurt fantasy managers, but if there was ever a season to break out, it would be this one. Advertisement The Bottom Line Players entering the final year of their contract have mixed results in fantasy football. Generally, contract-year status should be used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players instead of the end-all be-all deciding factor. Looking at 2024 data helped clarify the factors that go into a successful contract-year season. This year, there are several potential contract-year leaps to watch out for, namely from George Pickens, Deebo Samuel Sr., Breece Hall and Kyle Pitts. This story originally appeared in its full form on
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26-05-2025
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2025 Fantasy Football Strategy Tips: Kicker scoring is not random — here's why
The war against kickers has reached a fever pitch in recent years, and I am not here for it. Yahoo and 4for4 have always been safe spaces for those who play in leagues with kicker spots — havens, if you will, for fantasy managers to appreciate how the position has the potential to be a difference-maker in their collective seasons. Advertisement [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] At the core of the notion to get rid of kickers is the myth that their output is totally random and unpredictable. Sure, there are some who got blasted by a 24-point performance from Chris Boswell to start the season in Week 1 last year or rode Nick Folk's 23-point leg to victory in Week 4. When those weeks happen, it's easy to blame it all on the 'randomness' of the kicker spot, but very few take the time to research and see that it may not be so capricious at all. Trends to look for First and foremost, streaming is your best bet in redraft leagues; the kicker that you click on or walk that sticker up to the board for is of very little significance other than your possible Week 1 guy. What Happens in Vegas We don't look to predict individual kicker components like field goal attempts, extra-point tries, or kick distances, as that would be somewhat futile. Instead, we turn to Las Vegas for kicker love in the form of team totals. The more points a team puts on the board, the more their kicker scores. Kicker fantasy points per game vs. team total. (Photo by As you can see from the past four seasons, the correlation between higher team totals and larger kicker output is solid. As I dug even deeper into this data, I found that the number of times a kicker scored 10+ fantasy points when their team's total was 27 or higher was more than double the number of times when their predicted score was 26 or less. For the anti-streaming crowd If you're not into streaming your kicker and prefer just rolling with one throughout the season, here are a few pointers to up your odds of getting the most production out of them. Advertisement [Visit 4for4 for more fantasy football analysis] First and foremost, wait to draft your kicker until the final round of the draft. With every pick in a fantasy football draft, there is an opportunity cost associated with that pick. In fantasy terms, opportunity cost is simply the value of players who you don't draft, but you had the chance to take. Selecting a kicker before the last round, whether you are in a 15, 18- or more-round draft, has a potentially large opportunity cost attached to it. A look at players drafted in Rounds 13-14 in half-PPR Yahoo redraft leagues last season reveals a group of positional players who produced starting numbers and even a few potential league winners. The names include Bucky Irving, Ladd McConkey, Jameson Williams, Baker Mayfield, Rico Dowdle, Zach Charbonnet and Jonnu Smith. Drafting a kicker before their time could mean missing out on those points throughout the season, so as hard as it may be — and whatever FOMO you may be experiencing — tap the brakes on that kicker before the final round. As always, chase volume Looking for volume is nothing new when it comes to fantasy football, and applying it to kicker selection can also prove effective. High-volume passing offenses lead to scoring opportunities, which is something we want from the leg of our placekickers. Teams that aren't afraid to chuck the ball tend to produce higher-scoring kickers. Kicker finishes in fantasy points per game & team passing volume, 2024. (Photo by If we look at last year's top 13 legs, nine of them came from offenses among the top half of the league in total passing attempts. Look to the third down Another stat that can lend us some credence in drafting a kicker to roll with for the season is third-down percentage. The farther down the field a drive is extended means there's more of a chance for scoring, right? Advertisement In 2021, we saw three of the top five kickers from offenses within the top eight in third-down efficiency, with six more rounding out the 14 highest-scoring kickers. The Patriots were seventh in the metric (44.0%), leading to a K2 performance from Folk, with Matt Gay of the Rams putting up K3 numbers with the sixth-highest third-down efficiency number of 44.7% from his offense. Matt Prater was K5 on the season, with the Cardinals' 43.5% third-down efficiency ranking eighth in the league. Kickers 9-14 were all on offenses that landed in the top 10 in third-down efficiency in 2021, with the Eagles (4th), Bills (2nd), Harrison Butker (1st), Greg Zuerlein (10th), Ryan Succop (5th) and Mason Crosby (9th) all on productive offenses. The next season, four of the top seven kickers in total fantasy points were on offenses that finished the year within the top nine in third-down efficiency, with two more on teams among the top 16 in that metric. The Cowboys ranked fifth (45.2%), producing a K4 performance from Brett Maher, with the 49ers right behind (45.1%) in sixth, with a K4 finish from Robbie Gould. The high-octane Buffalo Bills featured the highest third-down conversion rate in 2023 (50.2%), with Tyler Bass putting up a K6 finish in overall fantasy points. Despite their offensive woes, the Falcons managed to convert third downs at the ninth-highest rate (41.8%), allowing Younghoe Koo to do his thing as K7 on the season. 2023 saw four of the top six kickers in total fantasy points were part of offenses that ended the season among the top 10 in third-down efficiency. The Cowboys were second in the metric at 49.2%, producing a K1 output from Brandon Aubrey, with Chicago's Cairo Santos putting up a K3 performance on the season backed by the Bears' 41.2% third-down conversion rate (10th). Jake Elliott and Butker checked in at K4 and K6, with their teams converting third downs at the fifth (46.2%) and sixth (43.3%) highest rates, respectively. Advertisement Last season, six of the top 10 kickers were on offenses that ranked 13th or better in third-down efficiency. The Buccaneers had the highest rate in 2024 (51%), leading to a K4 performance from Chase McLaughlin, while the Ravens (50.5%) and Detroit (47%) were second and fourth, respectively. Bass checked in as the K8 thanks to the Bills' 44.2% third-down efficiency, which was seventh among offenses, while Chris Boswell seemingly came out of nowhere for that K1 spot, but the Steelers were 12th in the metric. We do need to remember that the very best offenses should be converting third downs to find that end zone, so sometimes you'll only get one point instead of three or more. The Bottom Line Kicker-hate is at an all-time high, and before you let those carpet cleaners in your house and join the cult, you may want to consider how helpful they can be to your team's overall output. Sure, we've all been burned by the kicker position in the past, and on the surface, it all seems super random, but by putting in some time and effort, kickers' production from week to week may not be as arbitrary as it appears. Looking at Vegas odds, teams' offensive efficiency and volume can also assist you in getting the most from your kicker. Let your league mates draft their kicker(s) way too early, while you sit back armed with some actionable data to steer you towards the right one. Advertisement More analysis from 4for4: 2025 available targets and air yards tracker This article was originally published on
