Latest news with #ACWI
Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Citigroup sets mid-2026 target of 1,150 for MSCI's global equity index
CITIGROUP on Friday (Jul 11) introduced its mid-2026 target for the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Local as it expects global equity markets to be rangebound until year-end, with 'meaningful' gains coming in the first half of next year. The Wall Street brokerage set a target of 1,150 for the benchmark global equity index, implying an upside of about 5 per cent to its last close of 1,100.213. 'Our targets imply the most upside in Japan and Europe over the medium term,' Citi said. The brokerage maintained its preference for European stocks among global equities, but downgraded Japan to 'neutral' on concerns over near-term tariff risks and the strength of the Japanese yen. Global equities have climbed back to all-time highs after a volatile first half of 2025, even as the economic outlook looks uncertain broadly due to US President Donald Trump's tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Citi set its 2026 year-end earnings per share (EPS) growth for the index at above 11 per cent, which remains below consensus estimates of more than 13 per cent. 'Though still positive on average, bottom-up EPS forecasts around the world have been under pressure, as markets grapple with trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty,' the brokerage said, as it estimated an EPS growth of just above 5 per cent for this year. Citi maintained its 'neutral' stance on US equities, and 'underweight' on emerging markets and Australia. On the global sector front, it reiterated its 'overweight' view on technology and 'underweight' rating on consumer stocks. REUTERS
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Citigroup sets mid-2026 target of 1,150 for MSCI's global equity index
July 11 (Reuters) - Citigroup on Friday introduced its mid-2026 target for the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Local as they expect global equity markets to be rangebound until year-end, with "meaningful' gains coming in the first half of next year. The Wall-Street brokerage set a target of 1,150 for the benchmark global equity index (.dMIWD00000P), opens new tab, implying an upside of about 5% to its last close of 1,100.213. "Our targets imply the most upside in Japan and Europe over the medium term," Citi added.
Business Insider
07-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Stocks are on the verge of flashing 2 big sell signals as investors pile into the market at a historic pace, BofA says
Things have been good for stocks over the last two months. Maybe too good, according to a new report from Bank of America. Since its most recent low on April 8, the S&P 500 and Vanguard's Total World Stock Index are up 20% as investors have piled into the market at a near-record pace. On an annualized basis, 2025 has seen the second-highest inflows into global stocks ever, trailing only 2024, BofA's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett said in a client note Friday. For US stocks, it's the third-highest year ever, after 2024 and 2021. Yet, amid the bullish frenzy, Hartnett said global stocks are approaching two sell signals. The first is the amount of money flowing into global stock funds. If they hit 1% of their current assets under management within a four-week span, the sell signal is activated. Over the last four weeks, flows totaled 0.9% of the funds' AUM. To hit 1%, flows would have to hit $30 billion in the "coming weeks," Hartnett said. The second is a breadth indicator that says when 88% of the ACWI countries' indexes trade above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it's a sign that things are frothy and investors should sell, Hartnett said. Currently, 84% of ACWI countries' indexes are higher than their moving averages, meaning the market is in "overbought territory," Hartnett said. Both of Hartnett's sell indicators are in line with the conventional wisdom of contrarian investing espoused by legends like Warren Buffett. When the market is overwhelmingly bullish, good news is already priced in. When investors are bearish, it's an opportunity to buy stocks at a discount, the thinking goes. But sentiment gauges have sent mixed signals over the last couple of months. While inflows are strong, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows investors are still net bearish. Bank of America's own Bull/Bear indicator shows the market's aggregate attitude hovers somewhere between optimism and pessimism, with a slight tilt toward the former. Breadth indicators are broadly in line with Hartnett's measure. Stocks of all stripes are doing well. Like Hartnett, Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a May 27 report that the robust breadth levels could be a cause for concern in the near-term. "Early-April setup was ripe for rally on good news given washed out sentiment/breadth and deeply oversold market," she wrote in a note co-authored with Kevin Gordon, a senior strategist at Schwab. "Setup now is not at opposite extreme." While breadth and sentiment can be contrarian indicators, it should be noted that the momentum factor has been king over the last decade and a half. What has done well (mega-cap tech stocks and popular indexes) has continued to do well, and steep declines in the broader market have generally been short-lived. That could still be the case going forward. Beyond technical indicators, investors are also monitoring fundamental measures of the economy's health. The macroeconomic picture remains unclear as business owners and consumers digest President Trump's tariffs. Concerns persist about how the import taxes will affect consumer prices and growth. The US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, more than economists expected, but the number wasn't a sure sign that the labor market remains solid, as April and March data were revised down. Long-term Treasury yields also continue to rise as Trump's tax bill fuels investor concerns around inflation and the US budget deficit. A negative catalyst in the form of rising unemployment or higher inflation could spark a reversal in the ultra-bullish signals Hartnett is watching.
CNBC
06-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
International stocks are ahead of the U.S. so far this year—how to add them to your portfolio
For investors, the U.S. has been the place to be in recent years. Over the past decade and a half, the S&P 500 — a measure of the broad U.S. stock market — has returned an annualized 14.2%. The MSCI ACWI ex-USA index, which measures the performance of stocks from pretty much everywhere else, logged a return of 6.5% over the same period. Since the start of 2025, however, investors are eschewing U.S. stocks in favor of international names. So far this year, the ACWI ex-USA index has returned 15.7%, trouncing the 1.5% return in the S&P. "In 2025 thus far, there are some clear indications that investors are adopting the 'ABUSA' ('Anywhere But the USA') mindset," says David Rosenstrock, a certified financial planner and director of financial planning and investments at Wharton Wealth Planning. "This shift is partly driven by concerns over market volatility in the U.S., uncertainty regarding policies and relatively weaker performance compared to global counterparts," he says. So is it time to invest in foreign stocks? Yes and no, say financial pros. You shouldn't make any wholesale changes to your portfolio mix based on short-term market results, they say. But if you have little or no foreign exposure, diversifying is likely a savvy move over the long term. Here's why. If you were born in the 90s, you may have never been invested during a sustained period during which foreign stocks outperformed domestic names, as they did in the back half of the 80s and much of the early 2000s. If that's the case, you may be tempted to continue ignoring foreign stocks, even after the recent uptick. "The problem is those trends tend to tend to reverse over time," says Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist at Morningstar. "So even if the U.S. is outperforming over a very long period, like it did [in the 15 years] through 2024, eventually that trend reverses." While it may feel like the U.S. has dominated stock markets forever, it wasn't that long ago that foreign firms were delivering better returns. From 2001 to 2010, for instance, the ACWI ex-US index submitted a cumulative total return of 71.5% compared with a 15% gain in the S&P 500. Adding some foreign stocks to your portfolio can help guarantee at least some exposure to whichever side is performing better over the many years you're likely to invest. "True diversification means tapping into different economic cycles, monetary policies and growth drivers. It offers exposure to unique industries," says Marcos Segrera, a CFP and principal at Evensky & Katz/Foldes Wealth Management. "Furthermore, owning foreign stocks is a crucial way to diversify away from U.S.-specific risks." If you're looking to invest in foreign stocks, the most effective way to do it is by adding a low-cost index mutual fund or exchange-traded fund, says Arnott. "That way, you can get international diversification in one package and get exposure to a large number of companies and countries outside of the U.S.," she says. Market watchers generally divide foreign stocks into two camps: those that come from "developed" economies, such as those in Japan, Australia and several European countries, and emerging markets, such as China, India and much of Latin America. You can buy funds which invest in either, but "to keep things simple," owning a "total international stock" fund — such as one that tracks the MSCI ACWI ex-USA or something similar — will get you exposure to both, says Arnott. And while you may have powerful convictions about the future of a particular country and its economy, you'd be wise to avoid tilting your foreign exposure too much in that direction, Arnott says. Putting all your eggs in one country or region's basket, she says, can result in big swings in your portfolio. "It can be tempting to do that when there's a lot of excitement about Asia Pacific stocks or Latin America, or things like that," she says. "But it's difficult to use those types of funds in a portfolio just because they are more volatile, more narrowly defined, and people unfortunately have a tendency to sometimes see performance over the past few years and buy in at the wrong time."
Nikkei Asia
05-06-2025
- Business
- Nikkei Asia
Europe, AI drive global stock rally as Trump tariff fears ebb
TOKYO -- Global stocks are approaching all-time highs, fueled by investors encouraged by signs that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff campaign is hitting its limits. The benchmark MSCI All Countries World Index, using local currencies and excluding dividends, rose to 1,060.787 on Wednesday -- nearly 2% below the record high marked on Feb. 18. The dollar-denominated version of the ACWI hit a record high on Wednesday, aided by the greenback's weakness against a range of other currencies.
