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UAE Supply Cut Prompts Murban Derivatives Losses for Oil Majors
UAE Supply Cut Prompts Murban Derivatives Losses for Oil Majors

Arabian Post

time16 hours ago

  • Business
  • Arabian Post

UAE Supply Cut Prompts Murban Derivatives Losses for Oil Majors

A decision by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to slash July shipments of its flagship Murban crude has led to significant trading losses for equity partners hedging their positions, with estimates reaching $12 per barrel. The move stunned major stakeholders, including BP Plc and TotalEnergies SE, forcing abrupt reshuffling in the derivatives market and weighing on profitability metrics. The volume cut, amounting to approximately 3–4 million barrels or around two days of production, was effected unevenly across equity holders—reducing cargoes by between 5% and 40%, according to industry sources. Term buyers under long-term contracts were reportedly unaffected, indicating a strategic move to preserve foundation relationships while squeezing discretionary volumes. This has created a hedging mismatch: partners had positioned in futures and options to offset anticipated Murban deliveries, but actual supply fell short. The result: mounting mark‑to‑market losses on paper positions, with some market estimates as high as $12 per barrel—a steep decline considering thin typical margins. ADVERTISEMENT Murban crude, trading via ICE Futures Abu Dhabi since March, has been gaining prominence as a Middle East light crude benchmark. However, the recent cut has triggered volatility in its futures market. While spot premiums had previously eased due to ample supply and rising output post-OPEC+ easing, this supply setback has reversed some of that trend. The background to the decision lies in ADNOC's broader strategic recalibration. In late May, the company downgraded its projected Murban export capacity from 1.76 mb/d to 1.61 mb/d through May 2026—choosing to retain more crude for refining and domestic consumption. Analysts suggest this could reflect a drive to optimise margins via Ruwais refinery integration, as well as to better balance global market positioning. Market reaction was swift. Murban spot premiums fell to six‑month lows in Asia, even as export levels surged earlier this year in a bid to undercut competing heavier Middle Eastern grades. Yet the supply curtailment prior to July led to retreating premiums and amplified uncertainty among refiners and traders. BP and TotalEnergies, two of the most significant equity partners, have reportedly taken the hardest hit. With pre‑hedged positions now misaligned to actual cargoes, both companies face pressure to unwind derivatives, likely at a loss. Platts estimates suggest losses could total up to $12 per barrel—potentially eroding tens of millions of dollars in trading gains. These developments underscore the evolving risk profile of Murban as a benchmark. Its growing adoption, underscored by record trading volumes on exchanges such as ICE and Platts MoC, has attracted global attention. Yet supply-side control remains firmly in ADNOC's hands—a stark contrast to more decentralized benchmarks like Brent or WTI—raising questions about market predictability. ADVERTISEMENT The scenario highlights divergent strategies among Murban's partners: equity holders dependent on predictable allocations, versus term buyers whose contractual priority provides insulation from short-term supply shifts. It also accentuates the complexities that major oil trading desks face when aligning physical logistics with financial hedging. Analysts are cautioning that such volatility may influence future demand for Murban derivatives. Omar Najia of BB Energy has previously noted that futures liquidity depends heavily on consistent physical volumes; erratic supply cuts could impede long-term development of a robust trading framework. ADNOC, for its part, has yet to publicly comment on the allocation adjustments for July cargoes. The lack of transparency is typical of the company's market posture, rooted in a strategy that increasingly blends output management with integrated downstream optimisation. Market observers are now eyeing two key developments: first, how quickly ADNOC will restore shipments to original estimates; second, how equity partners will recalibrate hedging approaches to accommodate supply-phase volatility. The shock to trading positions could also spark a reassessment of Murban's maturity as a benchmark. While its rise has been meteoric—becoming the cheapest medium-sour crude in key Asian benchmarks earlier this year, prompting record cargo allocations via Platts MoC —the latest contraction exposes vulnerabilities inherent in single-provider control. Equity partners are said to be preparing for tighter cooperation and improved supply forecasting. Speculators suggest that future terms may include contractual safeguards or compensation clauses to protect those hedging against supply deficits. This episode marks a defining moment for Murban's financial architecture. Traders and refiners will be watching closely to see whether this diversion is an isolated incident or the beginning of recurring supply-management interventions. Either way, it signals the growing pains of what aspires to be a global oil benchmark—one still subject to the strategic impulses of its originator.

Santos grants six weeks exclusive due diligence to ADNOC-led consortium
Santos grants six weeks exclusive due diligence to ADNOC-led consortium

Zawya

time19 hours ago

  • Business
  • Zawya

Santos grants six weeks exclusive due diligence to ADNOC-led consortium

Australia's Santos said on Friday it had granted exclusive due diligence for a period of six weeks to an international consortium led by Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC), which had offered $18.7 billion for the gas producer. ADNOC's investment arm XRG, along with Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) and private equity firm Carlyle, had offered $5.76 (A$8.89) per Santos share when the proposal was announced in mid-June. At the time, the XRG consortium said it was negotiating to carry out due diligence with Santos on an exclusive basis before formalising the offer which would need at least 75% support from Santos investors. The consortium has also agreed to a confidentiality agreement with Santos, the Australian energy firm said. XRG now stands on the cusp of a deal that would give it stakes in major operations across Australia and Papua New Guinea— pending regulatory approval. Carlyle and XRG did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Rupali Ganguly breaks her silence days after the fire incident, writes 'As Anupamaa always rises like a phoenix from ashes... so shall we'
Rupali Ganguly breaks her silence days after the fire incident, writes 'As Anupamaa always rises like a phoenix from ashes... so shall we'

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Time of India

Rupali Ganguly breaks her silence days after the fire incident, writes 'As Anupamaa always rises like a phoenix from ashes... so shall we'

Regarding the fire incident that occurred on the sets of her well-known television show Anupamaa, actor Rupali Ganguly finally spoke out on Thursday. She expressed thankfulness for the lack of casualties and talked about how the location she once thought of as her second home now sits still. Rupali took to her social media handles, sharing about the incident. She wrote, "for the prayers, blessings and the overwhelming love during these trying times" in a statement issued on her Instagram account. She wrote, "What was once my second home, my karmbhoomi, and a sacred space I considered a temple, now stands stilted - but not broken. (sic)" She emphasised that the lives saved are what really count and showed support for the show's producer, Rajan Shahi. "With Rajan ji's steady leadership, I'm reminded that even a setback can serve as a springboard - one that fuels us to rise, rebuild and pour our hearts into what comes next. Like he says, what was lost can be created again. What truly matters are the lives that were saved. We are deeply grateful to the Almighty - there were no casualties and all our fur babies are safe (sic)," she penned. Rupali further lauded the crew and also expressed that she was grateful to the channel for their support, "Team DKP and the crew members of Anupamaa-your commendable efforts in not letting the shooting halt even for a day are applaud-worthy. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like You Can Earn A Second Income With ADNOC CFD Stocks And Others TradeLG Undo Team Star Plus, thank you for standing by us like a pillar of strength always(sic)," she wrote. Rupali then shared hope as she concluded her post, she wrote, "As Anupamaa always rises like a phoenix from ashes... so shall we." Speaking of the incident, the set of Anupamaa, a show by Rupali Ganguly, caught fire on June 23. After then, the producers declared in a formal declaration that "no casualties" had occurred. Additionally, they cautioned fans against disseminating "misinformation" about the incident. Following the event, the All Indian Cine Workers Association (AICWA) released a statement denouncing the carelessness. It also called for a high-level inquiry into the fire's origin.

UAE and China deepen $100bn trade ties
UAE and China deepen $100bn trade ties

Arabian Business

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Arabian Business

UAE and China deepen $100bn trade ties

The UAE and China are looking to develop $100bn trade ties and strengthen relations between the two countries. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Group CEO of ADNOC, has completed a high-level working visit to China, strengthening bilateral relations and deepening economic cooperation across energy, renewables, and industry. China is the UAE's largest global trading partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $100bn in 2024 — a 7 per cent annual increase driven largely by an 18 per cent rise in imports. UAE-China trade In Q1 2025 alone, non-oil trade surged 18 per cent year-on-year, fuelled by: 32.5 per cent growth in exports 20.2 per cent increase in re-exports 12.7 per cent rise in imports During his visit, Dr. Al Jaber met with senior Chinese government leaders, including Lan Fo'an, China's Minister of Finance; Liu Jianchao, Head of the CPC's International Department; and Zou Jiayi, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The meetings focused on enhancing the UAE–China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and launching new joint initiatives that support sustainable economic growth and industrial development. Dr. Al Jaber also held talks with the heads of major Chinese corporations, including: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) ZhenHua Oil China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) China Investment Corporation (CIC) Wanhua (chemicals) Envision (renewables and smart energy) China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) POWERCHINA International These discussions addressed opportunities for collaboration in oil and gas, LNG, refining, petrochemicals, renewables, and strategic infrastructure, while also exploring industrial investment, localisation, and clean energy transitions.

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