Latest news with #AEMO
The Age
7 hours ago
- Business
- The Age
Cost of key Victoria-NSW energy link soars
'The 2026 integrated system plan will revisit all transmission network projects previously identified as needing to proceed, with the exception of projects that have advanced to anticipated or committed status, seeking to ensure that overall costs for consumers are optimised,' the AEMO said. The completion of VNI West was recently delayed by two years, pushing it out to 2030 and placing further pressure on the system as the Yallourn coal-fired power station in the Latrobe Valley is due to close in 2028. Nexa Advisory principal Stephanie Bashir, a former executive at electricity and gas giant AGL, said the failure to deliver new transmission infrastructure, particularly interconnectors, was stalling Victoria's energy transition and driving up costs. 'Nowhere is that more evident than in the case of VNI West,' she said. 'With Yallourn closing in 2028 with no capacity for an extension, Victoria faces a real energy crisis. 'Governments at all levels must act decisively. This means prioritising intraregional transmission and scaling up non-network solutions like virtual transmission to avoid unnecessary reliance on new gas.' In 2022, the Allan government received modelling warning of energy bill pain if major transmission projects in the state were delayed. A copy of the report, provided to this masthead, found that if the projects were completed even one year later, the increase to household energy bills would be $48 annually, or $717 over 15 years between 2026 and 2040. In a statement on Thursday, Australia's largest electricity transmission company, Transgrid, confirmed a new schedule for the NSW side of VNI West and updated costs. Colin Mayer, project director for the NSW side of the project, said they were committed to deliver their section of the project and were planning to deliver it in stages. 'The first stage alone will unlock a total additional 2500 MW of electricity for the grid, which is enough to power 800,000 households,' he said. 'The second stage, comprising the transmission line from Dinawan substation to the Victorian border, will be delivered in line with Victoria's revised schedule of November 2030.' The lack of high-voltage power lines to connect faraway wind and solar farms to major cities has emerged as one of the biggest roadblocks to Australia's clean energy transition. While officials warn thousands of kilometres of new transmission lines are urgently needed to ready the grid for a future without coal, key projects are running into years-long delays as developers face soaring construction costs, shortages of skills and equipment, and pushback from rural and regional communities worried about impacts on their farming practices, property values and the environment. A Victorian government spokesperson said VNI West remained critical to Victoria's energy future. 'Transmission project costs have increased across Australia and the world, not just on VNI West - this reflects the current reality of building large-scale infrastructure, with higher construction and material costs, ongoing global supply chain pressures and inflation,' the spokesperson said. 'We will continue working closely with AEMO to support the delivery of VNI West, keep power bills low and ensure everyone has a voice in the planning process.' Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking said the higher costs of VNI West added weight to calls to scrap the project. 'To date, the energy transition has been a failure, and the Victorian government is risking smooth and reliable energy transmission by continuing to force the VNI West project through,' he said. Matt Rennie, executive director at energy consultancy Rennie Advisory, said Thursday's AEMO update was the latest indication that the critical build-out of transmission at the scale required was becoming more difficult, raising the risk that at least one of Victoria's remaining coal-fired power stations might need to stay open for longer. 'Even the most benign AEMO demand scenario sees the national electricity market grow by at least 1.5 times by 2050,' he said. 'Today's costings place renewed pressure on coal closure timetables.' Opposition energy spokesman David Davis said the Victorian government had lost control of the costs of transmission projects, which would be paid for by homes and businesses.
Sydney Morning Herald
7 hours ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Cost of key Victoria-NSW energy link soars
'The 2026 integrated system plan will revisit all transmission network projects previously identified as needing to proceed, with the exception of projects that have advanced to anticipated or committed status, seeking to ensure that overall costs for consumers are optimised,' the AEMO said. The completion of VNI West was recently delayed by two years, pushing it out to 2030 and placing further pressure on the system as the Yallourn coal-fired power station in the Latrobe Valley is due to close in 2028. Nexa Advisory principal Stephanie Bashir, a former executive at electricity and gas giant AGL, said the failure to deliver new transmission infrastructure, particularly interconnectors, was stalling Victoria's energy transition and driving up costs. 'Nowhere is that more evident than in the case of VNI West,' she said. 'With Yallourn closing in 2028 with no capacity for an extension, Victoria faces a real energy crisis. 'Governments at all levels must act decisively. This means prioritising intraregional transmission and scaling up non-network solutions like virtual transmission to avoid unnecessary reliance on new gas.' In 2022, the Allan government received modelling warning of energy bill pain if major transmission projects in the state were delayed. A copy of the report, provided to this masthead, found that if the projects were completed even one year later, the increase to household energy bills would be $48 annually, or $717 over 15 years between 2026 and 2040. In a statement on Thursday, Australia's largest electricity transmission company, Transgrid, confirmed a new schedule for the NSW side of VNI West and updated costs. Colin Mayer, project director for the NSW side of the project, said they were committed to deliver their section of the project and were planning to deliver it in stages. 'The first stage alone will unlock a total additional 2500 MW of electricity for the grid, which is enough to power 800,000 households,' he said. 'The second stage, comprising the transmission line from Dinawan substation to the Victorian border, will be delivered in line with Victoria's revised schedule of November 2030.' The lack of high-voltage power lines to connect faraway wind and solar farms to major cities has emerged as one of the biggest roadblocks to Australia's clean energy transition. While officials warn thousands of kilometres of new transmission lines are urgently needed to ready the grid for a future without coal, key projects are running into years-long delays as developers face soaring construction costs, shortages of skills and equipment, and pushback from rural and regional communities worried about impacts on their farming practices, property values and the environment. A Victorian government spokesperson said VNI West remained critical to Victoria's energy future. 'Transmission project costs have increased across Australia and the world, not just on VNI West - this reflects the current reality of building large-scale infrastructure, with higher construction and material costs, ongoing global supply chain pressures and inflation,' the spokesperson said. 'We will continue working closely with AEMO to support the delivery of VNI West, keep power bills low and ensure everyone has a voice in the planning process.' Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking said the higher costs of VNI West added weight to calls to scrap the project. 'To date, the energy transition has been a failure, and the Victorian government is risking smooth and reliable energy transmission by continuing to force the VNI West project through,' he said. Matt Rennie, executive director at energy consultancy Rennie Advisory, said Thursday's AEMO update was the latest indication that the critical build-out of transmission at the scale required was becoming more difficult, raising the risk that at least one of Victoria's remaining coal-fired power stations might need to stay open for longer. 'Even the most benign AEMO demand scenario sees the national electricity market grow by at least 1.5 times by 2050,' he said. 'Today's costings place renewed pressure on coal closure timetables.' Opposition energy spokesman David Davis said the Victorian government had lost control of the costs of transmission projects, which would be paid for by homes and businesses.
Perth Now
2 days ago
- Politics
- Perth Now
'When will insanity end': farmer fury over power play
Tractors have rolled down city streets as fired-up farmers slam proposed laws to enforce the roll out of hundreds of kilometres of power lines. Several hundred people packed the front steps of Victorian parliament on Wednesday as the lower house prepares to debate a controversial bill this week. Under the legislation, state government agency VicGrid would be granted powers to access private farmland to build transmission towers. It states authorised officers can use "reasonable force" with an entry order and people are banned from obstructing, hindering or delaying access. Fines of up to $12,000 for individuals and up to $48,000 for body corporates can be handed out if there is resistance. Protesters held signs reading "no government stooge on my land" and "hands off our land" as the state pushes on with network expansion to facilitate the transition to clean energy. VNI West, a second 240km transmission line between Victoria and NSW, has had its delivery date delayed two years to late 2030. A construction timeline for the 190km Western Renewables Link from Bulgana in Victoria's west to Sydenham in Melbourne's northwest has also been pushed back. The plans continue to face opposition despite the Victorian government committing to pay landowners $8000 a year for every kilometre of transmission infrastructure for 25 years. Gerald Feeny, a fourth-generation farmer from near St Arnaud in western Victoria's Wimmera region, said producers couldn't be bought off or bullied into submission. "(Premier) Jacinta Allan says she's a country girl," he said. "What country girl would bully and try to intimidate rural people, farmers on their own land?" Kanya farmer Marcia McIntyre said farms were for food not energy production and pondered "when will this insanity end". "After some horrendous lying, coercion and bullying from AEMO, (the government) have a revolt along the unnecessary VNI West transmission and WRL transmission lines," she said. "Instead of fixing the problem that they and their own agencies caused, they are just going to roll out some legislation to enforce their will on the people." The premier insisted laws already allowed private companies to enter farms and the proposed changes would "centralise" arrangements through VicGrid. "What we've seen by some of the private companies with the way they've engaged with landowners in some parts of our state hasn't been up to scratch," Ms Allan told reporters. "That's why we understand it needs to be better co-ordinated - we need to work with landowners and that's exactly what we'll do." Opposition Leader Brad Battin accused the Labor government of railroading farmers, who also fought tooth and nail to win a 12-month reprieve from an expanded emergency services levy. "We're not anti-renewable energy but you can't do it by bulldozing through people's properties," he said. Nationals Leader Danny O'Brien told the crowd the coalition would repeal the bill if passed and it wins the next state election in November 2026.
ABC News
21-07-2025
- Business
- ABC News
AI data centres need round-the-clock energy and could be more power-hungry than we think
Consider, for a moment, the year 2008. Kevin Rudd was less than a year into his first, ill-fated prime ministership, Ricky Ponting was the captain of the Australian Test cricket side, and social media platform Facebook was sweeping the world by storm. It was also a time of rising demand for electricity. In fact, up until that time, demand for electricity had been rising steadily for as long as anyone could remember. There was a basic equation that seemed to explain it — as the economy grew, so, too, did our need for power. Merryn York, who was at the time working at Powerlink, the state-owned Queensland transmission company, says the equation was the bedrock of planning for the grid. "Demand for electricity had always responded to economic conditions," Ms York says. But then something unexpected, and unprecedented, happened. That link between economic growth and electricity demand broke down. Ms York, now the executive general manager of system design at the Australian Energy Market Operator, explains that electricity demand fell — and for a remarkably long time. For more than 15 years, demand was subdued as appliances became more efficient, soaring prices made householders increasingly wary about using power and industry contracted. Now, however, Australia's long march towards ever greater power needs has resumed. And it's come back with a vengeance. "We're really turning a corner," Ms York says. Figures from AEMO show average demand for power in the national electricity market, which spans Australia's eastern seaboard, last year finally surpassed the previous high recorded way back in 2008. In that time, the way demand for power is measured has changed. Whereas once there was simply demand, it is now split between "operational" demand for power from the grid — excluding rooftop solar generation — and "underlying" demand. On that, more relevant, score, demand in July last year was almost 26,000 megawatts, eclipsing the 25,738MW record set some 16 years ago. In the first three months of this year, underlying demand rose 1.4 per cent compared with the previous corresponding period to a new record. Ms York says the numbers are expected to get much higher in the years ahead. "We are seeing significant growth and we're forecasting significant growth," she notes. Much of the growth to date, and much of what's expected to come, is thanks to the effects of electrification — from cooking and transport to entire industrial processes. "Electricity demand is now being driven by things like electrification, as people want to decarbonise their electricity usage," Ms York says. "That's playing a role now and will play a stronger role going forward." Indeed, AEMO noted in its most recent snapshot of the NEM that electrification was already having an effect. It was one of the big factors behind the most recent rise in demand, even if the rate of uptake for things like electric vehicles has been slower than expected. For all the implications of electrification, experts say there is another source of demand that looms even larger. Matt Rennie, who co-owns and runs energy advisory firm Rennie, says our need for data has the potential to change everything. "It is a big deal," Mr Rennie says. Mr Rennie says Australia is on the cusp of what is likely to be a revolution in the way we use data and — more importantly — how much of it we use. He says it's a revolution that is being driven by the migration of so many services — from education and games to healthcare and shopping — to the digital realm. More ominously, he suggests the rise of artificial intelligence is another thing entirely. In a world where AI becomes "pervasive", he says there is likely to be a step-change in demand power that will require round-the-clock supply. "The thing about AI is that the algorithms that it uses are much more power-intensive," Mr Rennie says. "So as these begin to pervade the way in which we do business and the way in which we plan and conduct our lives, we can expect that there'll be many more of these data centres specifically allocated to training AI systems and then to operate them after that. "Beyond this point, I think we're going to see a different nature of data centre, a much more power-hungry data centre in Australia." Mr Rennie says demand from data centres is already sneaking up and risking the assumptions used by AEMO to forecast electricity requirements. He notes AEMO's official forecasts show there will be up to 1.5 gigawatts of new demand by 2035 in an "accelerated data centre scenario". However, Mr Rennie says his firm's own research suggests demand will be far higher. "Our research shows that that's something like 4.9 gigawatts — so two, three times what AEMO was forecasting," he says. To put that in context, a large coal-fired power plant typically has about a gigawatt of capacity. "One of the interesting things is that Jemena alone, one of the electricity networks in Victoria, has had connection applications for data centres of around 1.5 gigawatts by 2030, Mr Rennie said. "And that's only for that one distributor in that one state. One person at the bleeding edge of the debate is Alex Coates, the chief executive of data centre operator Interactive. Ms Coates agrees Australia is on the threshold of a transformation as the twin forces of "radical digitisation" and AI combine to propel power demand higher. She says both applications require huge amounts of extra computing power, or chips. "That chip must reside somewhere," Ms Coates says. "And of course, it must reside in a place that's secure and safe and reliable, and that's a data centre." According to Ms Coates, there are already about 200 data centres in Australia. Between them, she says, they use about 5 per cent of the power drawn from the grids in which they operate. Much of the power is used to cool computer chips housed in the servers that make up data centres. Ms Coates says significant efforts are being made to make cooling more efficient. Interactive, for example, is exploring two different types of temperature control known as "liquid-to-chip" and "immersion" cooling to cut its electricity use. Ultimately, however, she says data centres will need to find new sources of power from somewhere. "By 2030, we're expecting double the capacity — another 175 facilities," Ms Coates says. "We haven't seen anything like the demand that we will see over this coming period. "In what that means and therefore what that then means for, again, the compute, the data centre provision and the power to the data centre." For Ms Coates, America provides a useful, if cautionary, tale on what to expect. In the US, demand for power from data centres — especially those connected to AI — has caught almost all forecasters off guard. Celebrated American energy writer Daniel Yergin noted in an essay earlier this year that data centres alone could consume as much as 10 per cent of power in the US by 2030. "One large tech company is opening a new data centre every three days," Mr Yergin wrote. "Electricity consumption is already outpacing recent demand forecasts. "PJM, which manages electricity transmission from Illinois to New Jersey, almost doubled its growth projection between 2022 and 2023 and is warning of the danger of shortfalls in electricity before the end of the decade. Indeed, Ms Coates says a constant consideration for her business is not only how to secure power supplies, but how to secure them in a sustainable way. At the moment, she says Interactive draws its power from the grid, meaning it is a mix of renewable and fossil fuel generation. But she says the company is determined to eventually rely totally on clean energy and may sign deals with generators — so-called power purchase agreements — to do so. "Certainly we will consider it," Ms Coates says. "I certainly see it continuing as well." For both Ms Coates and Mr Rennie, the coming surge in demand for power to meet our insatiable thirst for data is likely to arrive whether Australia is prepared or not. Mr Rennie says that will almost certainly have consequences for Australia's electricity system, its renewable energy target and its emission goals. "I mean, we're already concerned about the way in which demand will be met by supply," Mr Rennie says. "We know that the Australian system is growing enormously in terms of demand. "We know people are buying EVs. We know that these data centres are coming. "But we also know that coal's coming out of the system, that renewables are taking a little longer than what we thought they would. "Transmission is now three and a half years behind schedule on average. "And the overblown role of batteries and solar in the forecast suggests to us that there will already be a gap between demand and supply, which is something that we're worried about. "Adding more demand through data centres just takes that to a different level." At AEMO, which is responsible for keeping on the lights in Australia's biggest electricity systems, Ms York is optimistic. She says one of the virtues of forecasting is that it's a "repeat exercise", meaning whatever is missed or had changed in one year could be updated the next. This was true generally, she says, and is no different when it comes to data centres and the ways they will affect Australia's grids. To that end, she says AEMO has started treating demand forecasts for data centres much more seriously and is endeavouring to better understand the implications. "Certainly, data centres is something we are specifically considering in our forecasting," Ms York says. "It is quite challenging to know how much of that will turn up here in Australia and where it will be located. "But it is something that we are very focused on making sure that we are well positioned to support data centres coming to Australia and being able to meet their needs.
News.com.au
11-07-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Solar farms forced to switch off as poles and wire delays hamper renewable transition
Some major solar farms in Australia's southeast will be forced to shut off up to two thirds of the power they generate by 2027 as delays in building poles and wires causes major bottlenecks, the energy regulator has warned. The Australian government has set a target of 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030 — from 35 per cent in 2023 — and a 43 per cent reduction in carbon emissions. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has previously laid out a $122 billion blueprint, known as the Integrated System Plan (ISP), for the country's electricity grid to achieve that goal without major disruption as ageing coal-fired generators are taken offline. NSW's Eraring coal plant will cease operations in 2027, followed by Victoria Yallourn coal plant in 2028. But AEMO has warned that delays and cost blowouts for a number of major transmission projects, particularly in Victoria, will severely curtail the amount of energy generated by renewable energy projects over the next two years. 'While some locations have not seen heavy congestion historically, they are nearing their current network limits and additional capacity may result in new areas of congestion,' AEMO's 2025 Enhanced Locational Information report published on Wednesday said. Major transmission projects facing delays include the $3.3 billion VNI West, a 500 kV double circuit transmission line connecting the NSW and Victorian energy grids, the 700 kilometre EnergyConnect line between South Australia and NSW, and the 190 kilometre Western Renewables Link from western Victoria to Melbourne. AEMO's analysis found no major solar farms in Victoria or South Australia were forecast to have a shut-off rate of less than 35 per cent by 2027, with that figure as high as 65 per cent for some projects. 'This is more pronounced in the near-term horizon, while improvements are seen in the medium term based on new actionable ISP projects being delivered, and as investment is made to meet required system security services which would begin to relax system security constraints,' the report said. 'Projected curtailment is particularly high in South Australia and Victoria in the near term, as these regions are further progressed in the renewable transition, and each further increase in capacity is more heavily curtailed by minimum security and export limitations.' AEMO noted that there were approximately 20 gigawatts (GW) of projects currently at the application to connect stage, as well as the 300 GW of proposed future projects under consideration by developers using a range of technical and economic considerations to identify the most viable project locations. 'Opportunities exist in all National Electricity Market (NEM) regions for renewable and firming projects to deliver energy, capacity, and network support services,' AEMO executive general manager of system design Merryn York said in a statement. 'This report presents key locational data to help investors understand where their projects are most likely to succeed, and where challenges, such as network congestion, curtailment, or energy losses, may arise. Not all locations are equal, and geographic network conditions must be a critical part of investment decisions.' AEMO's report warned some locations were already reaching 'significant levels' of congestion and curtailment. In 2024, over half of all grid-scale wind and solar generation experienced network-driven curtailment of less than 1 per cent. Wind farms averaged 1.1 per cent network curtailment, but this was as high as 4.8 per cent for some units. However for solar farms, curtailment averaged 4.5 per cent with several experiencing 'very high levels' of curtailment above 25 per cent. 'High curtailment was mainly concentrated in specific areas (particularly western New South Wales and north west Victoria), and illustrates that most transmission lines did not experience significant congestion,' AEMO said. 'The most severe network congestion arose in areas with high levels of generation connected in locations that were originally designed to service demand rather than supply. These high network congestion areas broadly overlap with the areas experiencing high levels of generation curtailment.' The Clean Energy Council, which represents a number of solar investors impacted by the forecast curtailment, told The Australian Financial Review the slow rollout of transmission was affecting investment decisions. 'As the coal fleet exits, we need new capacity in the right places and quickly,' CEC spokesman Chris O'Keefe told the newspaper. 'Large-scale solar is fast and cost-effective to build, but it's also the most exposed to curtailment, especially when system security limits or negative prices hit in the middle of a sunny day. 'In the longer term, the only durable solution is new transmission. These transmission projects are absolutely essential to unlocking new generation and maintaining momentum in the transition.'
