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Hindustan Times
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Peace through deterrence is the new normal, post Sindoor
The dastardly terror attack in Pahalgam last month triggered an Indian response in the form of Operation Sindoor. An intense engagement, in which the Indian armed forces scored hits in the most secure coordinates of Pakistan's airspace, followed. Three days later, on the request of the DGMO of the Pakistan army, an understanding was reached between both countries to stop operations. One way of making sense of this sequence is to use the Game Theory framework. A concept called deterrence can be particularly illuminating. Deterrence is a strategy where one player (e.g., a country) prevents another's undesirable action (e.g., a terrorist attack) by threatening a costly response. The fundamental property of deterrence is that it always lies in the future. One can only deter future acts of terrorism by the threat of a future punishment. In order to be effective, such threats should involve substantial costs. This is obvious. What is usually non-obvious is that threats should be credible, in the sense that it should be rational for the player making them to carry out if the situation demands. Otherwise, the threat is just a bluff that will be ignored by the adversary. So, the real question in the present context is whether Operation Sindoor and the following public declarations have enhanced the expected magnitude and credibility of Indian threat posture contingent on any future act of terrorism. The answer seems positive. Let us examine. First, the direct cost of this conflict for Pakistan — the cost of closure of airspace, destruction of at least one air defence system, cost of intercepted UCAVs, cost of missiles fired for intercepting Indian drones, operational cost of maintaining the army at high alert levels for many days — must be substantial. Even conservative lower bound estimates suggest that the IMF loan installment of $1 billion — secured after hectic negotiations — was burned in just three days of conflict. And remember that known costs are just the tip of the iceberg. At least eight Pakistan Air Force bases and four radar sites were hit, and such sites store extremely expensive military hardware. Such costs would be prohibitive even in normal times. They are particularly onerous now, as Pakistan is under IMF obligation to compress its government expenditure in order to generate a fiscal surplus. The money to replenish destroyed assets and used inventory will be hard to come by. Second, looking at the Indian action following Uri, Pulwama, and Pahalgam, a gradually increasing intensity of punishment is clearly discernible. To borrow the terminology of economics, the marginal cost of terrorism is going up. Extrapolating the trend, one can predict that any Indian response to future acts of terrorism will be much more severe. This was clearly signalled by Vice Admiral AN Pramod, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, by underlining the 'overwhelming edge' of the Indian Navy. In this context, it may be noted that naval actions have enormous economic impact, as they affect the port cities of adversaries. So the threat of Indian action following future acts of terrorism seems substantial. But what about credibility? What is the way to make one's threats more credible in general? One way of making threats credible is to have self-imposed costs for backing down in future. This can be done for example by a public declaration of intent. If you do not carry out the threat, you lose face. Notice how both the Prime Minister and armed forces have publicly declared their intent of retaliation for future acts of terrorism. Moreover, democracies have an in-built mechanism of making credible threats, namely the public demand for retaliation. The public demand for punishment following any terrorist action makes it politically very costly for the incumbent to back down. Additionally, by striking firmly three times in a row after acts of terrorism, India has earned the reputation for retaliation. In the event of non-retaliation, this hard-won reputation will be lost. This will increase the cost of backing down substantially. Another way of making threats credible is to reduce the cost of carrying out the threat. This can for example be done by investing in defensive capabilities. It should be noted that unlike Pakistan, India has the fiscal space for enhancing the credibility of threat posture through budget allocations and defence procurements. The above analysis suggests that Operation Sindoor has a reasonable chance for establishing deterrence against the acts of terrorisms, with the caveat that transition to a new normal is never perfect and takes some time. The current understanding between both countries does not look like a stalemate. To be sure, this is not a checkmate either. But most professional games of chess do not end with checkmate. They end when one player realises that the checkmate has become inevitable. In an ideal world, neighbours can live next to each other with mutual understanding and respect. When that is not possible, peace based on deterrence is the only alternative. Deterrence, when successfully established, avoids conflict and war. This is an imperfect, but effective, way to peace and prosperity. Avinash Tripathi is a faculty at the Centre for the Study of Indian Economy, Azim Premji University. The views expressed are personal
India Today
19-05-2025
- Politics
- India Today
Real-time sorties, threat identification: How Navy contributed to Op Sindoor
Operation Sindoor showcased a calibrated, tri-services response, the government said on Sunday, highlighting how the Army, Air Forces and the Navy worked in tandem, presenting a strong front against terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied the role of the Air Force and the Army has often been talked about since the launch of the precision strikes on May 7, the government, in a press release, laid emphasis on the Navy's contribution to the operation as a "composite networked force". advertisementThe Navy's Carrier Battle Group (CBG) maintained a powerful air defence shield that prevented hostile aerial incursions, especially from the Makaran coast, a strip in the Balochistan region, between Pakistan and CBG naval fleet is equipped with MiG-29K fighter jets and airborne early warning helicopters. Besides, naval pilots conducted round-the-clock sorties, and the Navy denied any operational space to Pakistan along the western seaboard. "The Navy's ability to establish uncontested control over the seas also validated its anti-missile and anti-aircraft defence capabilities in a complex threat environment," the government said in a press release. Operation Sindoor was conceived as a punitive and targeted campaign to dismantle the terror infrastructure across the Line of Control (LoC) and deeper inside this month, Vice Admiral AN Pramod said that the Navy was fully capable of striking select targets at sea and on land, including Karachi, when India launched Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. advertisementThe senior Navy official had also said that the forward deployment of the naval force compelled Pakistan to stay in a defensive posture, mostly inside harbours or very close to the coast, which the Indian forces monitored precision strikes under Operation Sindoor were launched after midnight on May 7, in response to the deadly Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians on April the nine terror sites India struck, four were in Pakistan while the rest five were in PoK. The sites included Bahawalpur, the stronghold of terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Muridke, the headquarters of Lashkar-e-Taiba. Over 100 terrorists were killed in India's strikes. Tune InMust Watch
News18
13-05-2025
- Politics
- News18
India's 4-Layer Air Defence System That Destroyed Pakistani Missiles And Drones
Last Updated: Indian air defence units successfully intercepted and destroyed all Pakistani threats, including Chinese PL-15 missiles, long-range rockets, loitering munitions and Turkish drones India's robust, multi-layered air defence system successfully intercepted Pakistan's attempted drone and missile attacks following Operation Sindoor, before a ceasefire came into effect on May 10. News18 breaks down the country's formidable four-tier air defence system, one of the most critical pillars of India's national security. India's multi-layered air defence network is built to detect, track, and neutralise aerial threats at multiple ranges, forming a strong shield against enemy attacks. During the recent threat from Pakistan, the Indian Air Force's Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) deployed a potent mix of Russian S-400 Triumph systems, indigenous Akash and Samar missiles, Barak-8 medium-range surface-to-air missiles and advanced anti-drone systems. Each layer of this defence grid is specifically designed to intercept threats based on their distance and altitude, ensuring a swift and effective response. First Layer: The innermost layer is dedicated to neutralising very short-range aerial threats, such as low-flying drones. It includes systems like the L-70 anti-aircraft guns, Igla and Strela MANPADS, ZU-23-2B guns, Shilka and Tunguska. These are effective within a range of up to 10 km. Second Layer: The second layer, known as the point defence system, is tasked with protecting specific areas or critical assets. This layer consists of short-range surface-to-air missile systems such as Akash, Spyder, Samar, Pechora and Osa-AK with interception capabilities of up to 50 km. Fourth Layer: The outermost and longest-range tier features the Russian-made S-400 Triumph system, which can detect and destroy threats as far as 400 km away. It can intercept enemy aircraft and missiles far before they reach Indian airspace. In this multi-layered air defence grid, older but reliable systems like the Pechora, Osa-AK and air defence guns played a crucial role. Air Force officer Awadhesh Kumar Bharti said, 'This air defence system neutralised every aerial threat from the enemy. The performance of the indigenous Akash missile system, in particular, was highly commendable." According to reports, Indian air defence units successfully intercepted and destroyed a range of threats, including Chinese PL-15 missiles, long-range rockets, loitering munitions and Turkish-made drones. Meanwhile, the Indian Navy played a key role in securing the maritime front. Vice Admiral AN Pramod, Director General Operations, said the deployment of aircraft carriers and MiG-29K fighter jets near the Makran coast in the Arabian Sea effectively curbed Pakistani air activity in the region, ensuring there was no threat from the sea. First Published:
Express Tribune
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Effective strategy kept Indian Navy at bay: officials
The Indian Navy's aircraft carrier INS Vikrant was prevented from any maritime adventurism against Pakistan in the North Arabian Sea due to the well-coordinated strategy of the Pakistan Navy during the recent hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, officials with the Pakistan Navy told The Express Tribune. The Pakistani military launched a massive operation codenamed Bunyan-al-Marsoos (Formidable Wall) in response to the Indian aggression, targeting their airbases, airfields, weapon depots, missile stockpiles, brigade headquarters, etc. Like the other two services, the Pakistan Navy also played a key role in this swift operation. The Indian Navy remained confined to its own territorial waters and did not dare to challenge the Pakistan Navy in the south, according to the officials. The Pakistan Navy's presence in the south and its comprehensive strategy allowed the armed forces in the north and northeast to achieve their objectives, the official added. "Not only did the Pakistan Navy restrict the Indian Navy to its own waters, but it also ensured the safety of Pakistan's maritime trade routes and coastal regions." The Indian Navy admitted that it didn't participate in the "Operation Sindoor" which their military had launched. Director General of Naval Operations Vice Admiral AN Pramod said that the Indian Navy was prepared but kept waiting for the instructions from the government. However, a Pakistan Navy official said that the uninterrupted operation of Pakistan's three ports - Karachi Port, Port Qasim, and Gwadar Port - throughout the hostilities stands as clear evidence of our effective strategy. "The Indian Navy faced humiliation as it had been confined to its territorial waters by a much smaller adversary throughout the tension. The credit goes to the leadership, officers, and sailors of the Pakistan Navy who successfully safeguarded Pakistan's maritime frontiers and denied the enemy any opportunity for aggression," he added.
Express Tribune
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Pakistan Navy's effective strategy kept INS Vikrant confined to India's territorial waters
Listen to article The Indian Navy's aircraft carrier INS Vikrant was prevented from any maritime adventurism against Pakistan in the North Arabian Sea due to the well-coordinated strategy of the Pakistan Navy during the recent hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, officials with the Pakistan Navy told The Express Tribune. The Pakistani military launched a massive operation codenamed 'Bunyanum Marsoos' (Formidable Wall) in response to the Indian aggression, targeting their airbases, airfields, weapon depots, missile stockpiles, brigade headquarters, etc. Like the other two services, the Pakistan Navy also played a key role in this swift operation. The Indian Navy remained confined to its own territorial waters and did not dare to challenge the Pakistan Navy in the south, according to the officials. Throughout the entire period of tension, the Indian Navy could not advance any of its warships or aircraft towards Pakistan due to the strict surveillance and constant presence of the Pakistan Navy, one official added. 'As a result of this strong strategic posture, the Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikrant posed no threat to Pakistan and avoided any kind of maritime operation.' The Pakistan Navy's presence in the south and its comprehensive strategy allowed the armed forces in the north and northeast to achieve their objectives, the official added. 'Not only did the Pakistan Navy restrict the Indian Navy to its own waters, but it also ensured the safety of Pakistan's maritime trade routes and coastal regions.' The Indian Navy admitted that it didn't participate in the 'Operation Sindoor' which their military had launched. Director General of Naval Operations Vice Admiral AN Pramod said that the Indian Navy was prepared but kept waiting for the instructions from the government. However, a Pakistan Navy official said that the uninterrupted operation of Pakistan's three ports — Karachi Port, Port Qasim, and Gwadar Port — throughout the hostilities stands as clear evidence of our effective strategy. 'The Indian Navy faced humiliation as it had been confined to its territorial waters by a much smaller adversary throughout the tension,' he added. 'The credit goes to the leadership, officers, and sailors of the Pakistan Navy who successfully safeguarded Pakistan's maritime frontiers and denied the enemy any opportunity for aggression.' Pakistan-India ceasefire Pakistan and India agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire on Saturday following days of intense military exchanges that raised fears of a full-scale conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The announcement was first made by US President Donald Trump and later confirmed by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The ceasefire came after missile strikes, drone incursions, and retaliatory operations across the border. Tensions flared after a deadly April 22 attack in Pahalgam, Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), that left 26 civilians dead. India blamed Pakistan-based elements without providing evidence; Islamabad strongly rejected the claim. India responded by closing the Wagah border, revoking Pakistani visas, and suspending the Indus Waters Treaty—moves Pakistan labelled as an 'act of war.' By May 6–7, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyanum Marsoos, downing five Indian jets, including Rafales, and intercepted 77 Israeli-origin Harop drones. The US played a central role in facilitating backchannel diplomacy. Secretary Rubio and Vice President JD Vance held talks with senior leaders from both countries, including PMs Shehbaz Sharif and Narendra Modi, as well as top defence and intelligence officials. Following Trump's announcement, both countries suspended military activity across land, air, and sea, though allegations of ceasefire breach were also reported from both sides of the Line of Control.
