Latest news with #ANZ-Indeed
The Advertiser
7 days ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
All signs point to jobs market holding firm in new data
Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3.
Perth Now
7 days ago
- Business
- Perth Now
All signs point to jobs market holding firm in new data
The unusual resilience of Australia's jobs market is expected to continue in fresh data due out this week. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3.
The Age
07-07-2025
- Business
- The Age
RBA mulls more rate cuts as world prepares for Liberation Day 2.0
The Reserve Bank is poised to deliver its fastest cut in interest rates since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as it seeks to protect the economy from the fallout of US President Donald Trump's latest tariff war and encourage households to open their wallets. But the impact of the Trump plan may turn out to be a small positive if United States-based manufacturers leave America in favour of other nations with lower tariffs such as Australia, according to the independent Productivity Commission. The Reserve Bank's monetary policy board started its two-day meeting on Monday. Financial markets and most economists expect it to back a further quarter percentage point cut in the official cash rate. Following its May rate cut, interest rates would be at a two-year low of 3.6 per cent. It would be the first time the bank has delivered back-to-back rate cuts since March 2020 when the RBA sought to protect the country from the fallout of the pandemic. On a $600,000 mortgage, a rate cut on Tuesday would be worth $100 a month and take to $300 the monthly savings since the Reserve Bank started easing monetary policy in February. Loading Lower inflation, which fell to 2.1 per cent in May, and sluggish economic growth combined with the potential fallout from the Trump tariff agenda have all driven up expectations of a rate cut on Tuesday with a high chance of another rate reduction in August. An ongoing concern has been the continuing strength of the jobs market. Unemployment has remained about 4.1 per cent for the past year with the country adding almost 330,000 jobs. The latest ANZ-Indeed measure of job ads, released on Monday, lifted by 1.8 per cent in June to be at its highest level in a year.
Sydney Morning Herald
07-07-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
RBA mulls more rate cuts as world prepares for Liberation Day 2.0
The Reserve Bank is poised to deliver its fastest cut in interest rates since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as it seeks to protect the economy from the fallout of US President Donald Trump's latest tariff war and encourage households to open their wallets. But the impact of the Trump plan may turn out to be a small positive if United States-based manufacturers leave America in favour of other nations with lower tariffs such as Australia, according to the independent Productivity Commission. The Reserve Bank's monetary policy board started its two-day meeting on Monday. Financial markets and most economists expect it to back a further quarter percentage point cut in the official cash rate. Following its May rate cut, interest rates would be at a two-year low of 3.6 per cent. It would be the first time the bank has delivered back-to-back rate cuts since March 2020 when the RBA sought to protect the country from the fallout of the pandemic. On a $600,000 mortgage, a rate cut on Tuesday would be worth $100 a month and take to $300 the monthly savings since the Reserve Bank started easing monetary policy in February. Loading Lower inflation, which fell to 2.1 per cent in May, and sluggish economic growth combined with the potential fallout from the Trump tariff agenda have all driven up expectations of a rate cut on Tuesday with a high chance of another rate reduction in August. An ongoing concern has been the continuing strength of the jobs market. Unemployment has remained about 4.1 per cent for the past year with the country adding almost 330,000 jobs. The latest ANZ-Indeed measure of job ads, released on Monday, lifted by 1.8 per cent in June to be at its highest level in a year.
The Advertiser
15-06-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Spotlight on unemployment as jobs market loses heat
Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6. Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6. Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6. Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6.
