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US economy set to slow, but recession unlikely: Richard Yetsenga
US economy set to slow, but recession unlikely: Richard Yetsenga

Economic Times

time26-06-2025

  • Business
  • Economic Times

US economy set to slow, but recession unlikely: Richard Yetsenga

Agencies And if it is a midcycle slowdown, that is something that policy can be responsive to and actually the economy can respond to the rate cuts when the growth slowdown is only modest. "I think you know that part of the picture to me is pretty clear and as we head into the second half of the year, we will see the US economy slow a bit more. No recession, but a slowdown," says Richard Yetsenga, ANZ Group. It is quite interesting that if I look at the general positioning for the US e economy, 8 out of 10 economists or if I may say 9 out of 10 economists are bearish. But if I look at the US financial markets, S&P has rallied, Nasdaq is nearing at an all-time high and there seems to be quite a contrast in what currency is doing and versus what US markets are doing. So just connect the dots for our viewers. Richard Yetsenga: Well, may I pick the two rather than the one. The dollar has been coming down. The US numbers have been soft. It began in April and May with the survey data, the PMIs and so forth over May into June and then probably into July, we have got the hard numbers which are coming down and validating what we have seen. We have got softer employment growth. The unemployment rate has not gone up very much, but that is in some ways a different story. We have got softer headline jobs growth in the US and the dollar has been coming down for a whole range of drivers. I think part of which is this unfolding slowdown in the US economy. I think you know that part of the picture to me is pretty clear and as we head into the second half of the year, we will see the US economy slow a bit more. No recession, but a slowdown. Financial markets they always say are an indicator of what lies ahead. Are financial markets telling us that the tariff concerns which were there in the month of March, April, have they been discounted? Richard Yetsenga: Possibly, they may have been discounted. The rate at which we have ended up with tariffs does not look like something which will be destructive to the US economy or in fact, the global economy. But they do look like they are going to contribute to higher input costs for US business and certainly some of that will get passed through to end consumers, that is the key reason the Fed is not easing already. I mean, our forecast for some time has been the Fed would deliver its next rate cut in September and that is a timing that I feel quite comfortable with. Without the tariffs, I suspect growth might have been a bit better, but more importantly, the Fed would be even more comfortable with the inflation story and probably would have been able to bring the numbers down a little bit more. Let us not also forget it is not just tariffs we are talking about in the US, but also the one big beautiful bill which is yet to pass through both houses of Congress, but that seems like where it is going, it is going to add to the deficit over the next couple of years. So, in that sense is also causing the Fed to stay its hand and be a little bit cautious. Help us understand what are you pencilling in with respect to the rate cuts because, of late, the commentary that we are getting to hear from Fed spokesperson, they are saying that the rate cuts are possible later, this particular year a careful and a patient approach is appropriate at this point in time? Help us understand how do you connect the dots there? Richard Yetsenga: I agree with the Fed, some rate cuts seem likely, a patient and careful approach seems the right approach when you are dealing with so many crosscurrents and in fact, the economy is not that weak. So, we have pencilled in September, December, and March for the next three rate cuts and at this stage that is all we have for the Fed. And look, I just like to keep reminding people particularly on days when the news flow seems particularly poor, no recession. It just does not look like we are in for a recession. And if it is a midcycle slowdown, that is something that policy can be responsive to and actually the economy can respond to the rate cuts when the growth slowdown is only modest.

Change Of Directors On ANZ New Zealand Board
Change Of Directors On ANZ New Zealand Board

Scoop

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • Scoop

Change Of Directors On ANZ New Zealand Board

ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited (ANZ NZ) announced today that Mr Gerard Florian, ANZ Group Executive Technology & Group Services, has retired from its Board. Mr Florian has been a non-executive director of ANZ NZ since October 2022. ANZ NZ also announced today that Mr Mark Whelan, ANZ Group Executive Institutional, would be joining its Board as a non-executive director effective immediately. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has confirmed they have no objection to Mr Whelan's appointment. The other members of the ANZ NZ Board are Scott St John (Chair), Dame Joan Withers, Mark Tume, Nagaja Sanatkumar, Carolyn Steele and ANZ NZ CEO and Group Executive Antonia Watson. ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited Get on top of your money ANZ has been helping New Zealanders get on top of their money ever since we opened for business in 1840. We were New Zealand's first bank and today we have a large network of full-service branches and ATMs, and talented people across the country. We're passionate about helping our customers make their money work harder and equipping them to make better financial decisions. Whether it's travelling the world, buying a home, building a business, investing for the future or protecting their family's future, we use our financial strength and expertise to help make it happen. Through our sponsorships, our Staff Foundation and thousands of staff volunteer hours each year, we support causes that make a difference to New Zealanders.

Compliance Lapses At Australian Banks Raise Alarm Bells
Compliance Lapses At Australian Banks Raise Alarm Bells

Bloomberg

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Compliance Lapses At Australian Banks Raise Alarm Bells

Good morning everyone, it's Ainslie here in Sydney where the rain is well and truly back. Local stocks are looking at a weaker open today. But first... Today's must-reads: • Finance industry compliance breaches • Stronger-than-expected wage growth • Boeing lands its biggest order Australia's finance industry is beset by a raft of compliance lapses — from data reporting breaches to trader misbehavior — reigniting concerns the $541 billion sector has struggled to clean up after a litany of scandals came to light six years ago. Most recently, the Australian markets regulator sued Macquarie Group's local securities business, alleging the misreporting of millions of short sales for more than a decade. At rival ANZ Group, new CEO Nuno Matos said improving risk management is one of his key priorities after missteps plagued his predecessor. Read more here.

Bad Trader Behavior, Short-Sale Breaches Stalk Australian Banks
Bad Trader Behavior, Short-Sale Breaches Stalk Australian Banks

Bloomberg

time14-05-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Bad Trader Behavior, Short-Sale Breaches Stalk Australian Banks

Australia's finance industry is beset by a raft of compliance lapses — from data reporting breaches to trader misbehavior — reigniting concerns the $541 billion sector has struggled to clean up after a litany of scandals came to light six years ago. Most recently, the Australian markets regulator sued Macquarie Group Ltd. 's local securities business, alleging the misreporting of millions of short sales for more than a decade. At rival ANZ Group Holdings Ltd., new Chief Executive Officer Nuno Matos said improving risk management is one of his key priorities after missteps plagued his predecessor.

ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) Has Announced That Its Dividend Will Be Reduced To A$0.581
ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) Has Announced That Its Dividend Will Be Reduced To A$0.581

Yahoo

time11-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) Has Announced That Its Dividend Will Be Reduced To A$0.581

ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX:ANZ) is reducing its dividend to A$0.581 on the 1st of Julywhich is 30% less than last year's comparable payment of A$0.83. This means that the annual payment will be 5.7% of the current stock price, which is in line with the average for the industry. We've discovered 1 warning sign about ANZ Group Holdings. View them for free. While it is always good to see a solid dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is feasible. ANZ Group Holdings has a long history of paying out dividends, with its current track record at a minimum of 10 years. Based on ANZ Group Holdings' last earnings report, the payout ratio is at a decent 73%, meaning that the company is able to pay out its dividend with a bit of room to spare. Over the next 3 years, EPS is forecast to expand by 3.4%. Analysts forecast the future payout ratio could be 73% over the same time horizon, which is a number we think the company can maintain. Check out our latest analysis for ANZ Group Holdings Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was A$1.78, compared to the most recent full-year payment of A$1.66. Payments have been decreasing at a very slow pace in this time period. Declining dividends isn't generally what we look for as they can indicate that the company is running into some challenges. Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. We are encouraged to see that ANZ Group Holdings has grown earnings per share at 6.6% per year over the past five years. EPS has been growing at a reasonable rate, although with most of the profits being paid out to shareholders, growth prospects could be more limited in the future. Even though the dividend was cut this year, we think ANZ Group Holdings has the ability to make consistent payments in the future. The payout ratio looks good, but unfortunately the company's dividend track record isn't stellar. Taking all of this into consideration, the dividend looks viable moving forward, but investors should be mindful that the company has pushed the boundaries of sustainability in the past and may do so again. Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. For instance, we've picked out 1 warning sign for ANZ Group Holdings that investors should take into consideration. Is ANZ Group Holdings not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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