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Straits Times
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Indonesia still on alert despite Iran-Israel ceasefire
Despite no casualties from Iran's attack, airspace in the region was closed for a few hours on June 24 PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES Follow our live coverage here. JAKARTA - Fears of an escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel persist despite claims of a ceasefire between the two countries, with the Indonesian government expediting contingency planning as it finishes its first round of the evacuation of Indonesian nationals from the affected region. Hours before Iran and Israel agreed a ceasefire, Iran fired missiles at the Al Udeid air force base in Doha, Qatar on June 23 as a retaliation against the United States' bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. The attack did not result in any casualties, as Iran had warned Qatar prior to the attack, as reported by Reuters. Despite no casualties from Iran's attack, airspace in the region was closed for a few hours on June 24, including that over Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with a slew of airlines canceling their flights to the region, AFP reported. Among the flights affected was the one by Qatar Airways booked for at least 29 Indonesian nationals, the first batch of evacuees from Iran who fled the country through a 16-hour land trip to neighboring Azerbaijan. Indonesia's Foreign Ministry told reporters on June 24 that the evacuees would instead return to Jakarta on a Turkish Airlines flight, arriving more than two hours later than the initial schedule at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Tangerang, Banten. The ministry went on to say that it continued to 'monitor from a close range the escalation in the conflict between Israel, the US and Iran'. 'The ministry appeals to its citizens currently in the Middle East to increase their vigilance [and] avoid locations hosting assets of conflicting nations,' said the Indonesian ministry's citizen protection director Judha Nugraha in a statement. Prepare for the worst The renewed appeal for heightened alertness came despite US President Donald Trump's announcement that he had successfully negotiated a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. But less than 12 hours after the announcement, both countries threw accusations at each other that they had violated the deal and continued attacking each other beyond the agreed time the ceasefire was meant to start. All Indonesian representatives and embassies in Middle Eastern countries continue to be on high alert and on standby despite the ceasefire announcement in anticipation of any possible further escalation in the region, said Indonesia's Foreign Ministry director for Middle Eastern affairs Ahrul Tsani. 'Our representatives continue to monitor and remain responsive to any developments occurring, especially those in countries with US military bases,' Mr Ahrul told The Jakarta Post on June 24, listing countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq. Several Indonesian embassies in the listed high-alert countries have also begun circulating alert notices to citizens outlining responses to possible escalations, including calls to start packing important documents such as passports and employment contracts. Close call As officials call for calm amid the rising tensions, the Indonesian diaspora in the Middle East has been unnerved by the recent attacks. Mr Achmad, 42, was working in a restaurant in Doha when he suddenly felt the reverberation from an explosion at the Al Udeid base, located only about 30 minutes' drive from the Qatari capital. Panicking restaurant guests fled the restaurant after the explosion was felt. Qatari officials tried to calm down people by telling them not to panic or escalate things, said Mr Achmad. 'But I'm honestly worried. I saw with my own two eyes a missile being intercepted. I can't even describe the sound it created,' Mr Achmad told the Post on June 24. 'I'm just letting things be for now. I'm still breathing and standing. I just hope that there won't be any second wave of attacks. I won't know what to do in that case,' he said, explaining that he would lose his job in Doha if he were to be evacuated back to Indonesia. Indonesia's Foreign Ministry previously said that all evacuations of Indonesians from Iran and Israel would be voluntary rather than mandatory. The government has not issued any official diplomatic statement on the Iran-Israel conflict following Washington's decision to intervene on June 22, although its senior security ministry has called for all parties to return to the negotiating table. On June 22, Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto held a meeting with several ministers, including Jndonesia's Foreign Minister Sugiono, in his private residence in Hambalang, Bogor regency, West Java. The discussions revolved primarily around 'the dynamics of current global conditions and its effects on Indonesia's national interests', the State Secretariat wrote in a statement. The officials also discussed preparations for 'strategic steps' to protect national interests during the closed-door talks. THE JAKARTA POST/ ASIA NEWS NETWORK Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Iran-Israel conflict spreads to hacks on banks, crypto
The attacks tied to Israel herald a new front in the escalating Middle East conflict – but the countries' cyber rivalry spans two decades. PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES The conflict between Israel and Iran is spilling over into the digital world, inflaming a decades-long campaign of hacks and espionage between two nations renowned for their cyber prowess. On June 17, a pro-Israel hacking group claimed responsibility for a disruptive cyberattack against a major Iranian bank, and Iran's state-run IRIB News reported that Israel had launched a full-scale cyberattack on the country's critical infrastructure. Then on June 18, the pro-Israel hackers announced a new breach targeting an Iranian crypto exchange. Iran's Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the country has endured more than 6,700 distributed denial-of-service attacks over the past three days. It said temporary internet restrictions were implemented as a measure to blunt the impact of large-scale cyberattacks. DDoS attacks overwhelm servers with artificial traffic, disrupting access to websites and online services. Iranians were reporting widespread issues accessing the internet on the night of June 17, with many virtual private networks, or VPNs, rendered unusable. Customers also reported problems with banking services, including banking machines and online systems. It is not clear if the problems were the result of cyberattacks or efforts by the government to minimise their impact. The attacks tied to Israel herald a new front in the escalating Middle East conflict – but the countries' cyber rivalry spans two decades. Iran and its regional proxies, such as Hamas, have attempted a wide variety of cyberattacks against Israel in recent years – including information operations, data destruction attacks and phishing campaigns – with mixed results, according to data compiled by Google's Threat Analysis Group. Israel is widely considered one of the world's most advanced and capable countries in launching cyberattacks. An operation called Stuxnet, uncovered in 2010 and tied to the US and Israel, sabotaged hardware believed to be responsible for Iran's nuclear weapons development. One of the most advanced and impactful hacking operations in history, Stuxnet demonstrates the longstanding centrality of cyber to the Israel-Iran conflict. Predatory Sparrow's claims that it hacked Iran's Bank Sepah and Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex are the latest manifestation of that digital tit-for-tat. The group is known for launching significant cyberattacks against Iran over the last five years, while maintaining the image of a 'hacktivist' organisation. Many cybersecurity experts within the private industry have suggested Predatory Sparrow is linked to the Israeli government. Israel's Ministry for Foreign Affairs did not respond to a request for comment. Predatory Sparrow could not be reached for comment. 'Most disruptive and destructive cyberattacks are about influence and psychological impact rather than practical impact,' said Mr John Hultquist, chief analyst at Google's Threat Intelligence Group. 'That's why a lot of them involve an effort to publicize the incidents, which oftentimes includes a fictitious hacktivist front.' Predatory Sparrow posted on Telegram and X at 4am on June 17 New York time (4pm Singapore time) that it had successfully 'destroyed the data' of Bank Sepah, claiming that the institution was used to circumvent international sanctions. On June 18, the group said it had also targeted Nobitex in a separate attack. Prominent crypto sleuth ZachXBT noted in a post on Telegram that he had observed 'suspicious outflows' from Nobitex and said that an attacker appeared to have stolen more than US$81 million (S$104 million) in cryptocurrencies from the Tehran-based exchange. Bank Sepah could not be reached for comment. Nobitex said in a statement posted on X that it had detected signs of unauthorised access 'specifically affecting internal communication systems and a segment of the hot wallet environment'. The platform said users' wallet balances would be restored 'with no loss or discrepancy'. Predatory Sparrow has been active since 2021. The group appeared in public when they took credit for destroying data in Iran's national railway system, resulting in delays around the country. Iran's Ministry of Roads and Urban Development were hit by hackers around the same time with the same tool designed to destroy computer files. In other attacks, Predatory Sparrow was blamed for targeting point-of-sale systems at Iranian gas stations, causing a malfunction at Iran's Khouzestan steel mill that caused molten steel to spill onto the steel plant's floor, and publicising the alleged phone number of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The attackers are unique in that there is relatively little technical information about their hacks compared to similar campaigns, according to security experts. Predatory Sparrow's efforts tend to destroy the technical forensic evidence that analysts need to understand it. Often, the group has used social media to promote its activity, a tactic that experts say is proof that Predatory Sparrow aims to have a psychological impact. The hack against Bank Sepah came with its own publicity push, with Predatory Sparrow warning that 'this is what happens to institutions dedicated to maintaining the dictator's terrorist fantasies'. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Will Iran's energy grid, oil reserves be Israel's next targets in its bid for regime change?
An oil storage facility in Tehran burns after being hit by Israeli air strikes on June 15. PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES News analysis Will Iran's energy grid, oil reserves be Israel's next targets in its bid for regime change? LONDON – A few days into the military confrontation, any assessment of the war between Israel and Iran is likely to be tentative. Yet, even in this early phase, three broad conclusions are emerging. Iran and Israel are throwing all their arsenals and military capabilities into a fight that both sides consider as crucial to their existence. As a result, the risk of the operation escalating into much broader destruction remains very real. And while the casualty toll is rising fast, both sides are keeping their eyes firmly fixed on the only diplomatic actor that matters in this case: the United States. So, although President Donald Trump continues to resort to meaningless slogans – 'Make the Middle East Great Again', as he put it in his latest public intervention on Truth Social, his favourite social media platform – what the US leader thinks or does remains crucial not only to Israel, but also to Iran. Israel's operation is vast. The first wave of attacks on Iran involved over 200 combat aircraft striking over a hundred targets, including not only nuclear installations, but also the homes of Iran's military leadership, ballistic missile production and storage sites, and air defences. The current Israeli daily operations are much smaller. Still, they regularly involve around 50 jets in each wave; in total, over 300 various Iranian targets have been hit in the first three days of fighting. Still, Israel is far from succeeding in eliminating Iran's nuclear programme, which remains the main objective of its operation. The Natanz nuclear complex sustained severe damage on the first day of strikes. Its above-ground fuel plant, which produced enriched uranium at 60 per cent levels usually required for nuclear weapons, has been destroyed, a fact confirmed by both the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN nuclear watchdog – and by satellite photographs. However, Iran has two additional known fuel enrichment plants, including the largest one located at Natanz, which is underground. The entrances to these facilities have been struck by Israeli jets and Mossad security agents operating inside Iran. The electrical infrastructure supporting the Natanz site was also destroyed. The sudden loss of power and the vibrations caused by repeated explosions may have damaged the delicate centrifuges required for the enrichment process. But it will take a while for Israel to be certain of this outcome. And Iran's third enrichment facility at Fordow, which plays a critical role in its nuclear programme, is buried underground at depths of around 90 m. That facility can only be destroyed by the American GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a precision-guided monster weighing 13,600 kg that can only be operated by US bombers. Israel may be able to destroy the access to this facility, but unless it renders Fordow inoperable, the chance remains that Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for roughly nine nuclear weapons using its current enriched uranium stockpile. Israel has now achieved complete air control over Iran; not only its jets, but also the various versions of its Heron drones now operating in Iran's skies with impunity. However, the snag for the Israeli government is that it is under pressure to widen its attacks beyond just the nuclear and military installations, to Iran's wider civilian infrastructure. When the war began, Israel warned the Iranians that if they retaliate by hitting at Israeli cities, they should expect the Iranian economy to be struck in return. The Iranians clearly got the message, but they also knew that they stood no chance of persuading Israel to stop its offensive unless they aimed their missiles at the Jewish state's main population centres. So, while Iran's official media was initially careful to claim that the retaliation against Israel was limited to military targets in the first few days of the war, that pretence was soon dropped. State-controlled TV is now broadcasting endless clips of Israeli cities under fire, to the accompaniment of marches popular from the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Iran had 'opened gates of hell' on Israel, boasted the June 15 front page of Keyhan, an influential Iranian newspaper. 'We will end the war and Israel simultaneously,' it added. In reality, around 90 per cent of the approximately 500 missiles Iran fired at Israel since the start of the current confrontation were either successfully intercepted, or caused no damage. To date, 13 Israelis have been killed in these attacks and a further 400 have been wounded. By any normal yardstick, this is not a large number for a 9.7 million-strong nation. But for ordinary Israelis, previously accustomed to watching the interception of hostile missiles above their skies as almost a source of entertainment, the casualty tool is already regarded as intolerable. So the pressure is on the government to expand its strikes and destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure. Oil and natural gas wells, as well as Iran's energy export facilities to markets such as China – which go out of Kharg Island and the port of Bandar Abbas – are unlikely to be targeted by Israel at this stage, because this would provoke worldwide mayhem in energy markets and infuriate the US. But Iran's electricity grid as well as strategic oil reserves are sure to be destroyed in the days to come. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long believed that Iran's nuclear quest can only be terminated through regime change – the removal of the country's current rulers. American sources have revealed that soon after the current fighting began, US President Donald Trump rejected a plan by Israel to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, Mr Netanyahu may now seek regime change through different means. The Iranian economy is already tottering, weakened by decades of sanctions and gross mismanagement. He may well calculate that if ordinary Iranians are deprived of electricity and fuel, they may well come into the streets and overthrow their current rulers. Asked in a US media interview on June 15 if regime change was part of Israel's military effort, Mr Netanyahu replied: 'That could certainly be the result because the Iranian regime is very weak.' Yet, the record of previous efforts to hasten the overthrow of a government indicates that nobody can predict what triggers revolutions, and their outcomes are seldom those intended. Besides, President Trump still believes that after a bout of fighting, the current Iranian regime will be persuaded to return to the negotiating table and agree to give up its nuclear aspirations. That is just about as unrealistic as Prime Minister Netanyahu's hope for regime change. Still, the fact that the US may be impatient to stop the war dominates the calculations of both Iran and Israel. Israel's current objective is to degrade Iran's military capabilities as much as possible in the shortest period, and perhaps goad Iran into attacking US installations throughout the Middle East, a step that will bring the US into the fray. Meanwhile, Iran's objective is to resist for as long as needed until President Trump starts putting pressure on Israel to stop. Mr Trump certainly relishes his pivotal role in this conflict. Even though none of what is happening now will ever 'Make the Middle East Great Again.' Jonathan Eyal is based in London and Brussels and writes on global political and security matters. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
15-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Oil extends rally as escalating Israel-Iran conflict stokes supply disruption fears
An oil storage facility in Iran burns after being hit by Israeli airstrikes on June 15, 2025. PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES TOKYO - Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on June 16 after Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on June 15, heightening fears that escalating battle could trigger a broader regional conflict and widely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up US$1.70, or 2.3 per cent, to US$75.93 a barrel by 6.53am Singapore time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained US$1.62, or 2.2 per cent, to US$74.60. They had surged more than 5.5 per cent earlier in the morning. Both benchmarks settled 7 per cent higher on Friday (June 13), having surged more than 13 per cent during the day, the most in three years. The latest developments have stoked concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping passage. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. A closure of Hormuz could propel international prices to as high as US$130, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has predicted. A jump in oil would add to inflation pressures around the world. Widely watched market metrics are pointing to panic over prompt supply risks, as well as growing fears of a protracted conflict in the Middle East. The gap between the grade's two nearest December contracts – a key indicator on long-term balances – rose by as much as US$1.29 a barrel to US$3.48. Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the giant South Pars field, Iran's biggest, in an attack on June 14, and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes as part of its campaign against Tehran's nuclear programme. While the attack was concentrated on the Islamic Republic's domestic energy system rather than exports to international markets, oil traders and analysts are preparing for more turmoil. 'Now that threshold has been crossed, there will be questions about whether Israel is going to target more Iranian energy infrastructure,' said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultant Energy Aspects. 'We appear to be in an escalatory cycle.' Despite US sanctions, Iran remains the third-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opes. Its allies in Yemen, the Houthi militants, have harassed ships in the region and Tehran has in the past threatened to halt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point in the Persian Gulf. It has, however, never blockaded the key maritime chokepoint. If oil supplies are disrupted, President Donald Trump will likely call on the Opec+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia to tap its considerable spare production capacity, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, and a former CIA analyst, said in a note on June 13. But it's unclear whether the Opec could offset a severe and prolonged outage in Iran, which pumps around 3.4 million barrels a day. The attempt alone could put the energy infrastructure of the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates into the cross-hairs. After Riyadh backed Mr Trump's earlier crackdown on Tehran during his first term, its critical oil-processing installation at Abqaiq was blown up by the Houthis in 2019. 'Opec spare capacity could be brought online to offset a reduction in Iranian barrels,' said Clay Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC. 'But it would be politically dicey for Saudi Arabia and UAE to benefit in this way at Tehran's expense.' The fact that major oil facilities have so far been spared in the current tumult may offer markets some reassurance. 'We would probably need to see evidence of an intensifying war – with far more widespread damage and mass civilian casualties – for that expectation to change and the risk premium in crude to spike further,' said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based energy consultancy Vanda Insights. The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based watchdog set up by consuming nations, said that global oil markets are well supplied amid slowing fuel demand and recent production increases by Opec+. The agency said it's prepared to tap emergency stockpiles if necessary. On June 15, President Trump said in a Truth Social post that the two belligerent countries should and will make a peace deal. Mr Trump had said before Israel's attacks that he was dissatisfied with rising oil prices. Fears over the Strait of Hormuz are probably excessive too, Ms Hari added. Such an extreme step would cut off Iran's own export route and alienate its biggest customer, China. 'Iran has never actually blocked the channel despite many threats to do so down the years and I don't expect it will do so now,' she said. BLOOMBERG, REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
15-06-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Israeli military issues evacuation warnings to Iranians near weapons facilities
A building damaged by Israeli strikes in Tehran on June 13. PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES Israel on June 15 issued evacuation warnings to Iranians living near weapons production facilities in Tehran as the two nations continued to exchange missile attacks that began on June 13 . 'The Israeli military will strike these sites and will continue to peel away the Iranian snake's skin in Tehran and everywhere - targeting nuclear capabilities and weapons systems,' Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a statement. Israel had earlier issued an evacuation warning to Iranians residing near weapons facilities in Iran, an Israeli military spokesperson said in a post on X in Arabic and Farsi. The spokesperson said the warning included all weapons factories and supporting facilities. Israel launched its biggest military strike against Iran on June 13 , saying its goal was to stop Iran from developing atomic weapons and to take out Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
