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On Regional Tensions, Don't Expect Too Much of ASEAN
On Regional Tensions, Don't Expect Too Much of ASEAN

The Diplomat

time27-06-2025

  • Politics
  • The Diplomat

On Regional Tensions, Don't Expect Too Much of ASEAN

In the last week of May, Southeast Asia witnessed a series of significant diplomatic developments. Multiple ASEAN-led meetings were convened in Kuala Lumpur, including the ASEAN Summit, the ASEAN-GCC Summit, and the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit. Immediately following these meetings, the Shangri-La Dialogue defense conference 2025 took place in Singapore. During the same week, Thai and Cambodian troops skirmished along a disputed part of their nations' border, leaving one Cambodian soldier dead. These incidents – alongside the ongoing conflict in Myanmar and persistent maritime clashes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea – underscore the increasingly dynamic and complex security environment facing the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is well-positioned to play an active role in managing, though not solving, these regional conflicts. While some believe that ASEAN should attempt to resolve such conflicts, it is important to clarify that ASEAN was established primarily as a conflict management platform. It is not structured, nor is it equipped, for conflict resolution in the traditional sense, given the nature of its operating and decision-making mechanisms. To understand ASEAN's limitations in resolving conflicts, we must revisit the rationale behind its formation and the foundational principles that guide its operations. ASEAN was founded in August 1967, in the aftermath of the Indonesia–Malaysia Konfrontasi and during the intensification of the Vietnam War. Its aim was to foster peace, stability, and prosperity in the region. Its five founding members – Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines – envisioned it as a platform for regional confidence-building. Initially, ASEAN focused on cooperation on socio-economic and cultural matters. Since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN has expanded to include all Southeast Asian nations, with the last remaining outlier, Timor-Leste, expected to become a full member by the end of 2025. It has also broadened its multilateral engagements through various mechanisms – such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting, the ASEAN Political-Security Community, and the ASEAN Community – which aim to facilitate dialogue on security and economic cooperation. These forums allow for inclusive discussions and trust-building but often stop short of producing concrete and binding outcomes, particularly on contentious geopolitical matters. Two core principles define ASEAN's identity: non-intervention in the internal affairs of member states, and consensus-based decision-making. These enduring and pragmatic principles have enabled ASEAN to remain an inclusive and sustainable organization. ASEAN's approach to regional disputes stems from these principles, as demonstrated in the Five-Point Consensus plan addressing the Myanmar conflict, and in the ongoing negotiations over an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. The Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar was adopted in April 2021, three months after the Myanmar military's coup d'état, when ASEAN leaders reached a collective agreement on how to manage the Myanmar crisis, though the Consensus lacks binding and enforceable actions. Meanwhile, negotiations for the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct have spanned over two decades, illustrating both the inclusive nature of ASEAN's consensus-based approach, which values every member's input, and the inherent difficulty of reaching unified agreement on complex and sensitive issues. Moreover, external actors such as China, the United States, and the European Union continue to exert influence on ASEAN's internal dynamics, further complicating the process of establishing unified regional positions. It is therefore necessary to temper expectations regarding ASEAN's capacity to resolve deeply rooted regional issues. ASEAN and its mechanisms were never intended for such a role. The bloc lacks binding legal instruments and enforcement capabilities, and its consensus-based approach means that it is often hampered by divergent political priorities among member states, particularly on issues that touch upon their core national interests. In light of these structural limitations, ASEAN cannot be expected to assume a greater role in managing today's regional security challenges. Instead, its value lies in providing an important platform for fostering dialogues and confidence-building measures. While limited in yielding immediate and context-specific tangible outcomes, these remain essential for long-term regional stability.

Malaysia Commits To ASEAN Integration To Bring About Resilient Regional Economy
Malaysia Commits To ASEAN Integration To Bring About Resilient Regional Economy

Barnama

time19-06-2025

  • Business
  • Barnama

Malaysia Commits To ASEAN Integration To Bring About Resilient Regional Economy

BUSINESS KUALA LUMPUR, June 19 (Bernama) -- Malaysia is working actively towards upgrading existing trade agreements with ASEAN member states and dialogue partners, reinforcing its commitment to a more integrated and resilient regional economy, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. He said ASEAN has laid a solid foundation that has 'guided us through disputes and crises, be it sovereignty and border issues, the scourge of pandemics, or climate disasters.' 'It has anchored our economic integration through initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and in the future, the Digital Economic Framework Agreement. We will continue to place our trust in ASEAN's founding principles and its enduring potential. But we must go further in strengthening our collective resolve,' he said in his keynote address at the 38th Asia-Pacific Roundtable: Recalibrating Asia's Frontiers here today. He said that as an agent of change, Malaysia as the ASEAN chair, must not only reflect ASEAN's values, 'we must attempt to shape them.' Anwar stressed the need to 'confront the hard truths about our regional architecture, renew our commitment to shared responsibilities, and strengthen cooperation beyond just rhetoric. 'We are preparing for a world wrought with challenges, and must enhance regional integration, develop additional economic ties and tap future catalysts of growth, including digital transformation, the exponential surge of artificial intelligence, and energy transition,' he said. Addressing concerns over rising protectionism, Anwar noted that trade is fundamental to regional security. 'Trade is not a peripheral issue, it is a pillar of regional stability. When trade weakens, divisions emerge.' He highlighted the recent ASEAN-GCC-China Summit as a clear example of ASEAN's convening strength and its commitment to harnessing economic synergies and fostering institutional collaboration. Anwar said the conclusion of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) will unlock the vast potential of the regional digital economy and more importantly, greater intra-regional connectivity will create new opportunities for local businesses to expand their footprint across the region.'

Indonesia Cements Status as China's Top ASEAN Partner with Historic Currency Pact – EBC Financial Group Insights
Indonesia Cements Status as China's Top ASEAN Partner with Historic Currency Pact – EBC Financial Group Insights

The Sun

time05-06-2025

  • Business
  • The Sun

Indonesia Cements Status as China's Top ASEAN Partner with Historic Currency Pact – EBC Financial Group Insights

JAKARTA, INDONESIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 5 June 2025 - As one of China's largest ASEAN trading partners, with bilateral commerce reaching USD147.80 billion in 2024 (6.1% YoY growth), Indonesia has solidified its economic ties with China. During Chinese Premier Li Qiang's state visit ahead of the ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, the two nations signed four new MoUs—most critically, an upgraded Local Currency Settlement (LCS) pact between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC). EBC Financial Group (EBC), a leading brokerage firm, examines how this agreement redefines Indonesia's economic resilience. Sectoral Wins: The Foundation for Deeper Ties The accords support Indonesia's LCS framework across key sectors. Trade and tourism will benefit from streamlined visa policies, targeting 2 million Chinese visitors in 2025. A USD5 billion commitment for twin industrial parks (Fujian-Batang SEZ) will create over 100,000 jobs. Soft power initiatives, like joint TB vaccine research and media collaboration, strengthen people-to-people ties. The LCS Breakthrough: Financial Sovereignty in Action The BI-PBOC agreement enables Rupiah-Yuan use in capital accounts, offering three advantages: • Trade Shield: Bilateral trade (USD147.80B in 2024, +6.1% YoY) avoids costly USD conversions for exports like palm oil and nickel. • Rate Cut Buffer: BI gains flexibility with 5.3% of reserves in yuan, easing policy without destabilising the Rupiah. • BRICS Leverage: Access to New Development Bank funding supports President Prabowo's USD20B infrastructure agenda, reducing dollar reliance. 'This isn't just about cutting transaction fees—it's a recalibration of Indonesia's financial DNA,' says David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd. 'By enabling Yuan-backed trade and investment flows, BI is building a hedge against Fed policy shocks.' ASEAN's New Template: Unity Amid Global Realignments China-ASEAN trade hit USD330B (Jan-Apr 2025, +9.2% YoY), with Indonesia leading regional integration. The upgraded CAFTA 3.0 and ASEAN-GCC-China Summit highlight diversified economic partnerships. As Barrett notes, 'Indonesia is crafting a blueprint for monetary diversification. The Local Currency Settlement (LCS) deal illustrates how mid-sized economies can reduce overreliance on a single dominant currency, balancing regional cohesion with global standards.'

ASEAN-GCC-China: Building resilient trilateral trade architecture
ASEAN-GCC-China: Building resilient trilateral trade architecture

Malaysia Dateline

time04-06-2025

  • Business
  • Malaysia Dateline

ASEAN-GCC-China: Building resilient trilateral trade architecture

By DATUK PROF DR MOHD FAIZ ABDULLAH IF procrastination is the thief of time, then pussyfooting around the ASEAN-GCC-China Summit agenda might well be wanton heedlessness! Indeed, ASEAN must lead, not wait, because Malaysia is well positioned to set that agenda. While the Kuala Lumpur Declaration on ASEAN 2045 outlines an ambitious vision – a developed ASEAN that is the epicentre of growth in the Indo-Pacific – this aspiration won't come to pass in isolation. As Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, ASEAN's journey 'is a story of cooperation across borders, dialogue across difference and hope across generations.' To rise as an engine of global growth hinges on how ASEAN diversifies its economic linkages, including with the GCC and China. The Joint Statement of the trilateral Summit and the ASEAN-GCC Joint Declaration on Economic Cooperation mark a significant step forward. Both documents lay the foundation for a convergence that could reshape the region's trade architecture and existing economic synergies, through three interconnected tracks: the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade, the ASEAN-GCC FTA, and indirectly, the China-GCC FTA. Each agreement is progressing at a different pace. The ACFTA 3.0 is nearing completion, incorporating new-generation chapters on digital trade, competition, green economy and regulatory coherence. On the other hand, the China-GCC FTA, long under negotiation, is close to finalisation. Meanwhile, the ASEAN-GCC FTA is at the feasibility study stage while negotiations will be launched soon. It gives ASEAN and the GCC a rare opportunity to draw on the structure and substance of the other two negotiations and design an agreement that bridges the earlier two initiatives. The sequencing could, in fact, work tremendously in favour of ASEAN, positioning it as the central node in a new trade framework. What is often overlooked is that these are not discrete bilateral tracks. Rather, they weave a coherent structure connecting Southeast Asia, the Gulf and China, three of the world's most dynamic economic blocs. Such a scheme could lend further credence to the rules-based multilateral trading system, which, in Anwar's words, is being subjected to 'the onslaught of arbitrary imposition of trade restrictions.' It would also provide greater certainty and predictability for investors, and institutionalise ASEAN's centrality in the evolving global trade order. The economic logic is compelling and the numbers are convincing. The GCC was ASEAN's seventh-largest trading partner in 2022, with trade totalling USD130.7 billion, and is projected to grow at 30% annually. ASEAN-China trade surpassed USD722 billion in 2022, making China ASEAN's largest trading partner for the past 14 consecutive years. These relationships already run deep. What is missing is strategic coherence, something the trilateral FTA configuration could decisively address. Woven into such an arrangement must be substantial commitments in key growth sectors such as Islamic finance, digital economy, and renewable energy which offer mutual benefits and long-term dividends. Introducing them explicitly into such an FTA would mark a refreshing departure from conventional trade accords, not to mention create a more innovative partnership. Naturally, working together on currency settlements, cross-border payments, and sovereign wealth fund linkages could further strengthen financial resilience. Malaysia, as ASEAN Chair, has already taken the lead. We are pushing for the early conclusion of ACFTA 3.0, supporting a clear timeline for ASEAN-GCC FTA negotiations, while advancing the formation of a permanent mechanism that would co-ordinate the multiple trade tracks strategically. Additionally, setting up a regional business council could ensure private sector alignment, enabling businesses to benefit from this evolving topography. While some noted the absence of several GCC Heads of State at the Summit, the GCC was nonetheless robustly and adequately represented, underscoring institutional earnestness. Premier Li Qiang's attendance, meanwhile, is a clear signal of China's commitment. If a picture paints a thousand words, then the appearance of ASEAN leaders being flanked by GCC leaders, clad in traditional Arab attire, on one side and those from the Chinese side on the other, does make for amazing optics! Granted while faith may move mountains, looks alone won't. But add in the substantive discussions and professed undertakings, we are looking at a level of engagement that must perforce inspire ASEAN to seize the moment. The coming decade will not be shaped by more of the same. It will be shaped by those who can integrate across fault lines, build resilient frameworks, and champion multilateralism with a powerful sense of purpose. A trilateral trade architecture linking ASEAN, the GCC and China is not just about trade flows. It is a strategic bet on a more cohesive, rules-based and opportunity-rich regional order. The ball's in ASEAN's court. And Malaysia, as Chair, must hit it! * Writer is Chairman, Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia

Bahrain Cabinet Reviews Tougher Traffic Penalties in Weekly Meeting
Bahrain Cabinet Reviews Tougher Traffic Penalties in Weekly Meeting

Daily Tribune

time02-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Daily Tribune

Bahrain Cabinet Reviews Tougher Traffic Penalties in Weekly Meeting

The Cabinet, chaired by His Royal Highness Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister, reviewed proposed amendments to Bahrain's traffic laws aimed at increasing penalties for serious traffic violations. During the weekly Cabinet session held at Gudaibiya Palace, the Cabinet discussed a memorandum presented by the Minister of Interior in response to directives from HRH the Crown Prince and Prime Minister. The memorandum calls for tougher legal measures targeting violations that result in injuries or fatalities, with increased fines and stricter sentencing. The amendments will also address dangerous driving behaviors that pose a risk to public safety, aiming to reduce road accidents and protect lives. The proposed legislative changes are part of a broader national effort to prioritize traffic law enforcement and public safety, reinforcing the government's commitment to safeguarding all road users. In other matters, the Cabinet extended its Eid Al-Adha greetings to His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and the people of Bahrain, and praised Saudi Arabia's preparations for the Hajj season, which have improved organizational readiness and enhanced services for pilgrims. The Cabinet also lauded the outcomes of the second ASEAN-GCC Summit and the ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, where HRH Prince Salman led Bahrain's delegation. The Cabinet highlighted HRH's visionary remarks calling for global cooperation on sustainable development and an international treaty to govern artificial intelligence ethically. Further, the Cabinet emphasized the importance of HRH's recent visit to Malaysia, including key meetings with His Majesty Sultan Ibrahim and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as a boost to bilateral ties between Bahrain and Malaysia. Domestically, the Cabinet reaffirmed its support for Bahrain's media sector, congratulating the winners of the 2025 Prime Minister's Press Award and the Bahrain Journalists Association on its 25th anniversary. It also recognized the achievements of top-performing students for the 2024–2025 academic year and commended the Ministry of Education's modern teaching practices. In recognition of World Environment Day, the Cabinet reiterated its commitment to sustainable development and environmental preservation through innovative policy solutions. Additionally, the Cabinet reviewed and approved several key memorandums related to: The session concluded with the Cabinet reviewing reports on Bahrain's recent international engagements, including ministerial visits, global summits, and preparations for the Bahrain International Airshow 2026.

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