Latest news with #AaronLuk
The Advertiser
29-06-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Retail spending tipped to stay soft as home prices soar
Retail sales figures are expected to bounce back slightly after unseasonably warm weather put Australian consumers off buying winter clothes. Following a 0.1 per cent fall in retail spending in April, ANZ Bank economist Aaron Luk expects to see a 0.2 per cent rise in May figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. Even accounting for the weather-impacted 2.5 per cent drop in clothing sales in April, the Australian consumer has experienced a subdued start to 2025, despite falling inflation and interest rates boosting disposable income. Consumer sentiment was hit by global uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump's threatened trade war and although tensions are now easing, confidence remains muted. Elsewhere, Australia's never-ending wealth-creation engine powers on, with home prices likely to show further growth in Cotality's home value index report on Tuesday. The housing analytics firm formerly known as CoreLogic has tracked a rebound in property values since the start of the year, following a brief late 2024 downturn. Median dwelling prices hit a record high in June, with the median home in Australia now worth more than $830,000. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects another 0.6 per cent increase in July, up from 0.5 per cent growth the month prior. Slower-than-expected inflation figures released last week bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again in July, which would further fuel housing demand and price down the track. That's bad news for Australians hoping to clamber onto the property ladder, who can at least be consoled that dwelling approvals are tipped to recover from two consecutive months of falls. A 4.9 per cent jump in housing consents is expected to be revealed by the ABS on Wednesday. New supply is desperately needed to meet growing demand, but the pipeline is still well short of the levels needed to meet the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. To meet that figure, Australia would need to build 20,000 new homes a month and the industry is already behind. In April, only 14,633 new homes were approved. Meanwhile, appetite for risk among Wall Street investors is being fuelled by data solidifying expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite President Donald Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada in response to its digital tax on technology companies, all three major US indexes posted weekly gains. The Dow Jones rose 432.43 points, or 1.00 per cent, to finish Friday at 43,819.27, the S&P 500 gained 32.05 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 6,173.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 20,273.46. Australian share futures crept up 5 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 9,316. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 gave up modest morning gains on Friday to finish on the lows of the day, losing 36.6 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 8,514.2. The broader All Ordinaries fell 29.9 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 8,743.7. Retail sales figures are expected to bounce back slightly after unseasonably warm weather put Australian consumers off buying winter clothes. Following a 0.1 per cent fall in retail spending in April, ANZ Bank economist Aaron Luk expects to see a 0.2 per cent rise in May figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. Even accounting for the weather-impacted 2.5 per cent drop in clothing sales in April, the Australian consumer has experienced a subdued start to 2025, despite falling inflation and interest rates boosting disposable income. Consumer sentiment was hit by global uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump's threatened trade war and although tensions are now easing, confidence remains muted. Elsewhere, Australia's never-ending wealth-creation engine powers on, with home prices likely to show further growth in Cotality's home value index report on Tuesday. The housing analytics firm formerly known as CoreLogic has tracked a rebound in property values since the start of the year, following a brief late 2024 downturn. Median dwelling prices hit a record high in June, with the median home in Australia now worth more than $830,000. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects another 0.6 per cent increase in July, up from 0.5 per cent growth the month prior. Slower-than-expected inflation figures released last week bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again in July, which would further fuel housing demand and price down the track. That's bad news for Australians hoping to clamber onto the property ladder, who can at least be consoled that dwelling approvals are tipped to recover from two consecutive months of falls. A 4.9 per cent jump in housing consents is expected to be revealed by the ABS on Wednesday. New supply is desperately needed to meet growing demand, but the pipeline is still well short of the levels needed to meet the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. To meet that figure, Australia would need to build 20,000 new homes a month and the industry is already behind. In April, only 14,633 new homes were approved. Meanwhile, appetite for risk among Wall Street investors is being fuelled by data solidifying expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite President Donald Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada in response to its digital tax on technology companies, all three major US indexes posted weekly gains. The Dow Jones rose 432.43 points, or 1.00 per cent, to finish Friday at 43,819.27, the S&P 500 gained 32.05 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 6,173.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 20,273.46. Australian share futures crept up 5 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 9,316. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 gave up modest morning gains on Friday to finish on the lows of the day, losing 36.6 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 8,514.2. The broader All Ordinaries fell 29.9 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 8,743.7. Retail sales figures are expected to bounce back slightly after unseasonably warm weather put Australian consumers off buying winter clothes. Following a 0.1 per cent fall in retail spending in April, ANZ Bank economist Aaron Luk expects to see a 0.2 per cent rise in May figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. Even accounting for the weather-impacted 2.5 per cent drop in clothing sales in April, the Australian consumer has experienced a subdued start to 2025, despite falling inflation and interest rates boosting disposable income. Consumer sentiment was hit by global uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump's threatened trade war and although tensions are now easing, confidence remains muted. Elsewhere, Australia's never-ending wealth-creation engine powers on, with home prices likely to show further growth in Cotality's home value index report on Tuesday. The housing analytics firm formerly known as CoreLogic has tracked a rebound in property values since the start of the year, following a brief late 2024 downturn. Median dwelling prices hit a record high in June, with the median home in Australia now worth more than $830,000. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects another 0.6 per cent increase in July, up from 0.5 per cent growth the month prior. Slower-than-expected inflation figures released last week bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again in July, which would further fuel housing demand and price down the track. That's bad news for Australians hoping to clamber onto the property ladder, who can at least be consoled that dwelling approvals are tipped to recover from two consecutive months of falls. A 4.9 per cent jump in housing consents is expected to be revealed by the ABS on Wednesday. New supply is desperately needed to meet growing demand, but the pipeline is still well short of the levels needed to meet the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. To meet that figure, Australia would need to build 20,000 new homes a month and the industry is already behind. In April, only 14,633 new homes were approved. Meanwhile, appetite for risk among Wall Street investors is being fuelled by data solidifying expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite President Donald Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada in response to its digital tax on technology companies, all three major US indexes posted weekly gains. The Dow Jones rose 432.43 points, or 1.00 per cent, to finish Friday at 43,819.27, the S&P 500 gained 32.05 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 6,173.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 20,273.46. Australian share futures crept up 5 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 9,316. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 gave up modest morning gains on Friday to finish on the lows of the day, losing 36.6 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 8,514.2. The broader All Ordinaries fell 29.9 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 8,743.7. Retail sales figures are expected to bounce back slightly after unseasonably warm weather put Australian consumers off buying winter clothes. Following a 0.1 per cent fall in retail spending in April, ANZ Bank economist Aaron Luk expects to see a 0.2 per cent rise in May figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. Even accounting for the weather-impacted 2.5 per cent drop in clothing sales in April, the Australian consumer has experienced a subdued start to 2025, despite falling inflation and interest rates boosting disposable income. Consumer sentiment was hit by global uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump's threatened trade war and although tensions are now easing, confidence remains muted. Elsewhere, Australia's never-ending wealth-creation engine powers on, with home prices likely to show further growth in Cotality's home value index report on Tuesday. The housing analytics firm formerly known as CoreLogic has tracked a rebound in property values since the start of the year, following a brief late 2024 downturn. Median dwelling prices hit a record high in June, with the median home in Australia now worth more than $830,000. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects another 0.6 per cent increase in July, up from 0.5 per cent growth the month prior. Slower-than-expected inflation figures released last week bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again in July, which would further fuel housing demand and price down the track. That's bad news for Australians hoping to clamber onto the property ladder, who can at least be consoled that dwelling approvals are tipped to recover from two consecutive months of falls. A 4.9 per cent jump in housing consents is expected to be revealed by the ABS on Wednesday. New supply is desperately needed to meet growing demand, but the pipeline is still well short of the levels needed to meet the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. To meet that figure, Australia would need to build 20,000 new homes a month and the industry is already behind. In April, only 14,633 new homes were approved. Meanwhile, appetite for risk among Wall Street investors is being fuelled by data solidifying expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite President Donald Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada in response to its digital tax on technology companies, all three major US indexes posted weekly gains. The Dow Jones rose 432.43 points, or 1.00 per cent, to finish Friday at 43,819.27, the S&P 500 gained 32.05 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 6,173.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 20,273.46. Australian share futures crept up 5 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 9,316. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 gave up modest morning gains on Friday to finish on the lows of the day, losing 36.6 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 8,514.2. The broader All Ordinaries fell 29.9 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 8,743.7.
Perth Now
29-06-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Retail spending tipped to stay soft as home prices soar
Retail sales figures are expected to bounce back slightly after unseasonably warm weather put Australian consumers off buying winter clothes. Following a 0.1 per cent fall in retail spending in April, ANZ Bank economist Aaron Luk expects to see a 0.2 per cent rise in May figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. "We expect a modest recovery in clothing sales this month and food-related spending is expected to continue its upward trajectory," Mr Luk said. Even accounting for the weather-impacted 2.5 per cent drop in clothing sales in April, the Australian consumer has experienced a subdued start to 2025, despite falling inflation and interest rates boosting disposable income. Consumer sentiment was hit by global uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump's threatened trade war and although tensions are now easing, confidence remains muted. Elsewhere, Australia's never-ending wealth-creation engine powers on, with home prices likely to show further growth in Cotality's home value index report on Tuesday. The housing analytics firm formerly known as CoreLogic has tracked a rebound in property values since the start of the year, following a brief late 2024 downturn. Median dwelling prices hit a record high in June, with the median home in Australia now worth more than $830,000. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects another 0.6 per cent increase in July, up from 0.5 per cent growth the month prior. Slower-than-expected inflation figures released last week bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again in July, which would further fuel housing demand and price down the track. That's bad news for Australians hoping to clamber onto the property ladder, who can at least be consoled that dwelling approvals are tipped to recover from two consecutive months of falls. A 4.9 per cent jump in housing consents is expected to be revealed by the ABS on Wednesday. New supply is desperately needed to meet growing demand, but the pipeline is still well short of the levels needed to meet the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. To meet that figure, Australia would need to build 20,000 new homes a month and the industry is already behind. In April, only 14,633 new homes were approved. Meanwhile, appetite for risk among Wall Street investors is being fuelled by data solidifying expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite President Donald Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada in response to its digital tax on technology companies, all three major US indexes posted weekly gains. The Dow Jones rose 432.43 points, or 1.00 per cent, to finish Friday at 43,819.27, the S&P 500 gained 32.05 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 6,173.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 20,273.46. Australian share futures crept up 5 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 9,316. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 gave up modest morning gains on Friday to finish on the lows of the day, losing 36.6 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 8,514.2. The broader All Ordinaries fell 29.9 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 8,743.7.
Business Wire
19-06-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Tech Soft 3D Joins AOUSD, Adds Support to Accelerate 3D Interoperability with CAD in OpenUSD and NVIDIA Omniverse Workflows
BEND, Ore. & SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Tech Soft 3D, a leading provider of engineering software development tools, and NVIDIA announced a collaboration centered around Universal Scene Description (OpenUSD) and the NVIDIA Omniverse™ platform. "Tech Soft 3D's investment in USD is great news for the entire industrial and CAD ecosystem," says Aaron Luk, Director of Product Management at NVIDIA. Tech Soft 3D has also officially joined the Alliance for OpenUSD (AOUSD) and will be contributing jointly with NVIDIA and other alliance members to the continued development and definition of the OpenUSD standard. Since 2022, NVIDIA has been licensing HOOPS Exchange, Tech Soft 3D's powerful CAD data access toolkit, to enable native CAD file conversion into OpenUSD — a critical step in allowing developers to build 3D digital twin solutions across industries. Now, with the latest release of HOOPS Exchange, developers can export data directly from the most popular CAD applications to USD, the foundational format for the NVIDIA Omniverse development platform and a key enabler of 3D interoperability across AI and simulation workflows and applications. This new capability supports seamless, high-fidelity translation of engineering data for use in visualization, simulation, and large-scale digital twin environments developed on Omniverse libraries. 'This evolution of HOOPS Exchange is a huge leap forward for the engineering software community,' said Gavin Bridgeman, CTO of Tech Soft 3D. 'Our mission has always been to empower developers with the best tools to unlock the full value of their rich engineering data. By enabling export to USD, we're accelerating how that data fuels next-gen digital twins, immersive simulations, and AI-powered experiences across both consumer and industrial applications.' With HOOPS Exchange now supporting export to USD, developers can bring rich engineering data from over 30 CAD file formats—including CATIA®, STEP, SOLIDWORKS®, and many others—into any 3D application that supports the USD format, enabling powerful workflows across a broad and growing ecosystem of USD-compatible tools. As USD rapidly becomes the interoperability standard for aggregating 3D and other digital content at scale, this capability empowers engineering software developers to deliver seamless, high-fidelity experiences for visualization, simulation, and digital twin creation across the entire product lifecycle. 'Tech Soft 3D's investment in USD is great news for the entire industrial and CAD ecosystem,' says Aaron Luk, Director of Product Management at NVIDIA. 'HOOPS offers an unparalleled opportunity for CAD users to seamlessly connect their data to USD, unleashing the immense power of its composition capabilities to aggregate diverse data sources and construct comprehensive digital twins for industrial and physical AI use cases.' Those in the Tech Soft 3D developer ecosystem can now better integrate with the OpenUSD ecosystem, empowering thousands of engineering software developers to explore and innovate without barriers. About Tech Soft 3D Tech Soft 3D is the leading provider of engineering software development toolkits and industrial applications for CAD & CAE data conversion, visualization, and simulation. Established in 1996 and headquartered in Bend, Oregon, Tech Soft 3D has additional offices in the USA, France, England, Japan, Germany, and Norway. Tech Soft 3D is backed by investment firm Battery Ventures.
The Advertiser
15-06-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Spotlight on unemployment as jobs market loses heat
Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6. Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6. Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6. Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6.
Perth Now
15-06-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Spotlight on unemployment as jobs market loses heat
Signs the labour market is easing will alleviate Reserve Bank concerns about inflation with Australia's jobless rate tipped to remain at historic lows. Economists predict labour force figures for May - to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday - will show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent. Alongside the expected 20,000 new jobs added to the economy - following an increase of 89,000 in April - the figures would indicate ongoing tightness in the labour market. The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously expressed concern the jobs market could stall progress on inflation but has become more concerned about international factors than domestic developments, ANZ economist Aaron Luk said. While an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent is below pre-COVID-19 averages and the central bank's estimate for the maximum employment rate that does not contribute to rising inflation, other indicators show softening in the labour market. "Growth in hours worked has been relatively subdued in the last three months and our own ANZ-Indeed job ads series also declined in May to its lowest level since March 2021," Mr Luk told AAP. "I think we can expect a gradual easing in the labour market over the course of 2025/26." Resilience in Australia's jobs market, despite higher interest rates, has been underpinned by growth in government-funded jobs, up from 28 per cent of total employment in 2020 to 31 per cent currently. Despite a slowdown in public demand, ongoing growth in funding for the NDIS, schools and hospitals should keep a lid on unemployment, Mr Luk said, even with a moderate uptick predicted in 2025. Given the Reserve Bank's bigger concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on Australia's anaemic economic growth, the jobs market should not be a barrier to further interest rate cuts. "Inflation is coming back within the two to three per cent target band, you've got wages easing as well, you've got maybe some signs of labour market easing a little bit," Mr Luk said. "The conditions are there for the RBA to have a bit more confidence in cutting and we think they're going to cut in August." Economists are not predicting the world's most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to cut rates when it meets on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark funds rate unchanged in a 4.25 to 4.50 per cent range since December and indicated it is comfortable staying on pause while the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and tax cuts become clear. Wall Street's main indices ended sharply lower on Friday, with investors spooked by Iran launching missiles at Israel in response to intensive strikes aimed at crippling its ability to build nuclear weapons. Oil prices surged almost 7.0 per cent on fears the conflict could disrupt crude supply from the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.13 per cent to end the session at 5,976.97 points, the Nasdaq was down 1.30 per cent to 19,406.83 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.79 per cent to 42,197.79 points. Australian share futures fell 20 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 16,048. Also impacted by news of Israel's attack, the S&P/ASX200 fell 17.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,547.4, as the broader All Ordinaries gave up 25.4 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 8,770.6.
