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Daily Maverick
3 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Africa on edge: How global tensions between Israel, Iran and the US threaten stability
The conflict in Iran may seem far away, but it's creating volatility that African leaders must act on urgently. Israel, Iran and the United States' (US) escalating hostilities have sent geopolitical tremors far beyond the Middle East. With the fragile ceasefire holding for now, the world waits tensely to see if a broader regional or global conflict will erupt. For African policymakers, three critical vectors demand close scrutiny — security, diplomatic and economic. Each carries risks that may have outsized effects on the continent. The first danger lies in the security sphere. The conflict risks drawing multiple global powers — Russia, China, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) — into yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. Historically, when the great powers collide, Africa often becomes an unintended theatre of competition and collateral. The scars of the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are still apparent in myriad economic, diplomatic and security shocks. There is a worrying sense of déjà vu in the current situation. If global tensions spill into new ideological or military standoffs, African countries could get trapped in the messy middle. North and East African states face particular exposure to direct risks from primary and proxy actors. Security vulnerabilities Iranian projectiles have already lit up Cairo's night sky — a reminder of Egypt's security vulnerabilities; with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi advocating for de-escalation. Elsewhere, US-aligned military assets in Djibouti and Somalia, and Israel's assets in Eritrea, could become the focus of retaliatory strikes by Iran or its regional proxies, such as the Houthis. There is also an indirect security risk arising from a reprioritisation of Western strategic interests. With defence budgets and attention stretched by the Ukraine war and domestic concerns, Africa's security sectors may find themselves increasingly under-resourced and unable to manage transnational threats. Testament to Africa's declining geostrategic value in the Western security psyche, the continent received little attention during recent G7 and Nato meetings. Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are already feeling the brunt of Western retrenchment in the Sahelian theatre. Further disengagement would leave them even more vulnerable to insurgencies. Human security — often overlooked — is also at stake. Food insecurity, climate shocks and governance deficits already strain many African states. Fresh pressures could arise if Middle Eastern instability fuels large-scale migration or refugee flows into Europe. European diversion of development funding to manage such spillovers could further undermine safety nets for Africa's most vulnerable populations. Religious and sectarian tensions, exacerbated by Middle East developments, may also inflame local disputes in Africa's multi-faith societies. A concern is Nigeria where Shia groups could engage in attacks in solidarity with Iran. Compounding these risks is the spectre of nuclear proliferation. If Iran abandons nuclear restraint, other regional players may follow, raising the chances of an arms race with global consequences. Weakened influence For Africa — a strong proponent of nuclear disarmament under the Pelindaba Treaty — such a shift would weaken its influence in future global arms control negotiations. Diplomatically, pressure on African states to take sides will intensify. They may be forced into uncomfortable choices — between Washington and Tehran, or the US and its rivals in Moscow or Beijing — with sanctions or aid withdrawal the price for defiance. South Africa is in a particularly delicate position. Its inconsistent foreign policy has left it walking a narrow tightrope. Washington has sparred with Pretoria over its stance on Israel, its domestic policies, proximity to Iran, and its alignment with BRICS. The US could react punitively to any sign of sympathy towards Iran. Multilateral institutions, especially the United Nations Security Council and expanded BRICS+, will also be tested. Iran's recent accession to BRICS has added complexity and may strain the bloc's unity. African members like South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia could face awkward choices should the bloc lean towards favouring Tehran. The implications are profound. A world that abandons international law for raw power threatens the very framework that protects smaller, less powerful states. For Africa, this is an existential issue — without rules-based multilateralism, the continent's collective influence diminishes. Worse, a global slide into 'might is right' politics may embolden expansionist African leaders. Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed Ali, Rwanda's Paul Kagame and Morocco's King Mohammed VI could feel encouraged to pursue territorial ambitions under the cover of global disorder. Others may take 'preventive' strikes against perceived enemies like the US and Israel — illegal under current international law. Africa's collective voting strength at global forums may also erode in such a scenario. If influence weakens, so too does Africa's leverage on crucial matters such as debt restructuring, climate finance and development aid. Only through a unified, strategic voice can the continent avoid marginalisation. Yet the most immediate and tangible impact is economic. Global uncertainty traditionally sparks a 'flight to safety', strengthening the US dollar and weakening African currencies. This raises debt servicing costs for African sovereigns, many of which are heavily dollar-indebted. Bond yields could spike, and fiscal pressures — already strained by post-pandemic recovery and fallout from the Ukraine war — would tighten further. Energy security is another looming flashpoint. Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz — the conduit for a third of the world's oil — would send energy prices soaring. Net oil importers, including many African economies, would suffer painful imported inflation, raising transport, food and energy costs. This would intensify cost-of-living crises and complicate monetary policy just as central banks prepare to loosen rates to spur growth. Recession Broader trade disruptions, coupled with the expiry of US President Donald Trump's tariff reprieves, could drag the global economy into recession. For Africa, the fallout could be severe. Depreciation-driven debt deterioration could complicate restructuring in Zambia, Ethiopia and Ghana. Others — like Kenya and Nigeria, where debt servicing swallows more than 30% of revenue — would face even tighter fiscal constraints. Smaller economies reliant on customs-sharing arrangements, like Lesotho and Eswatini, are also vulnerable, with Southern African Customs Union earnings there already projected to decline by as much as 20% this year. Limited fiscal buffers would force many African governments to divert funds from development spending to cover external gaps — risking social unrest, political instability and the erosion of already thin reserves. Still, a few bright spots exist. Rising gold prices could benefit producers like Ghana and South Africa. Likewise, higher oil prices may boost revenues for exporters like Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya. Yet these gains probably wouldn't offset the broader economic harm of disrupted supply chains, slower global growth and weaker demand for non-commodity African exports. In this volatile context, African leaders must act. Security capacities and collaboration must be bolstered to reduce dependence on foreign powers and cushion against internal and external threats. Diplomacy must become more unified and strategic — both to protect Africa's interests and uphold the international rules that safeguard its sovereignty. Economic resilience, through fiscal prudence, dollar de-risking and deeper regional market development, is urgent. The Iran crisis may rage abroad, but its sparks are falling on African soil — and the continent must brace for impact. DM
Middle East Eye
17-06-2025
- Business
- Middle East Eye
Egypt's Sisi accused of 'giving away' strategic Red Sea land of Ras Shukeir after decree
In a move sparking shockwaves in Egypt, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has approved the transfer of a massive area of coastal land in the Red Sea province for sovereign sukuk (Islamic bonds) issuances in a bid to ease the country's soaring debt. The decision to allocate 174 sq km of land in the oil-rich Ras Shukeir area to the Ministry of Finance to use as sukuk has not been preceded by public parliamentary debates or discussions within civil society. Neither has the decree - published in the official gazette on 10 June - provided further details. The announcement only detailed the coordinates of the parts of the land. Sukuk are Islamic financial certificates similar to bonds, but structured to comply with Sharia law by involving shared ownership in tangible assets or investment ventures rather than interest-based debt. The announcement comes as Egypt intensifies its search for means of alternative financing to ease pressure on foreign reserves and contain mounting external debt amid a challenging economic crisis that has hit the country hard over the past years. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Regime critics were quick to condemn Sisi's call, viewing it as part of a broader state asset sell-off and an attempt to attract Gulf investors through Islamic Sharia-compliant financial deals. Last year, Egypt signed a $35bn deal with Abu Dhabi's ADQ sovereign fund to develop Ras el-Hekma on the Mediterranean coast. The agreement provided an injection of hard currency and temporarily eased pressure on the Egyptian pound. 'They are fooling Egyptians by saying this is not a debt-settling purchase. Sukuk is partial ownership of an asset that can be traded on financial markets' - Egypt opposition group Despite technical differences between the two arrangements, economists believe the government is trying to replicate that model: using land assets to generate liquidity. 'The move reflects a broader government policy of converting government-held assets into cash to finance debt issuance or meet ongoing financial obligations,' financial analyst Ahmed Abdel-Thaher told Middle East Eye. 'In this case, land - traditionally a non-liquid asset - is being leveraged to generate instant revenue. This way, returns are tied to the projected development or rental income of the land,' he explained. Egypt's external debt stands at nearly $155bn. Before the current fiscal year ends on 30 June, the country is committed to repaying around $60.8bn of that total. 'The Egyptian regime adopts a policy of hegemony of decision-making… and the external support [of Gulf nations]… when the Saudis or the Emiratis come to the rescue,' said political sociologist Dr Said Sadek. Tiran and Sanafir: Red Sea islands are now a chokehold over Egypt's security Read More » 'Economic dependency leads to political dependency and the loss of independence. The current economic policy is, inevitably, leading towards this direction,' Sadek told MEE. In response to the growing debate, the Ministry of Finance said in an official statement on Wednesday that the land would not be sold but used as collateral to issue sukuk to 'secure financing under favourable terms for covering the needs of the state's general budget'. The ministry further insisted the land remains state-owned. Ras Shukeir (also spelt Ras Shokeir) is located along the Red Sea coastline on the western coast of the Gulf of Suez, about 350km from the capital, Cairo. The area is also strategically significant due to its maritime activities and its role as a hub for green hydrogen and ammonia projects. 'Partial ownership' Opposition in Egypt and abroad, nonetheless, argues that Ras Shukeir holds too much strategic and economic value to be collateralised. 'We opposed the government's policy of taking further external borrowing, crying out again and again in warning of its terrible aftermath. But no one was hearing. All voices of opposition were criticised and rejected,' former presidential candidate Khaled Ali wrote in a Facebook post. 'Ramifications have been serious. We have borne the brunt of this policy through the collapse of the Egyptian pound's purchasing power and its continued decline against foreign currencies,' added Ali, also a prominent human rights lawyer. How Egypt lost its regional power – and became complicit in Gaza's siege: One on One with Hossam el-Hamalawy Read More » A darker scenario looms: that the sukuk issuances may not, eventually, yield sufficient revenue. 'Even if such deals bring in foreign currency, the government is giving away the country's assets and lands for temporary relief,' said a renowned economics professor, who asked to be unnamed for security reasons. 'What is going to happen when bonds mature and the revenues fall short?' he rhetorically asked. The exiled Egyptian Revolutionary Council voiced similar concerns. 'They are fooling Egyptians by saying this is not a debt-settling purchase. Sukuk is partial ownership of an asset that can be traded on financial markets. It might be a means of land acquisition, especially if Egypt cannot pay its sukuk due… considering the regime's indecisive economic policies and ongoing corruption over the past decade,' the Istanbul-based group argued in a post on X. National security concerns Although the presidential decree dictates that the military will oversee strategic areas in Ras Shukeir, national security concerns remain. 'The Red Sea coast - namely around Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal entry points - is of huge strategic significance, crossing military, economic and geopolitical domains,' said a retired high-ranking army officer, asking to remain anonymous for not being authorised to talk to the media. 'With rising regional tensions, especially the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, control over Ras Shukeir and nearby areas has become more crucial,' the retired officer told MEE. Ras Shukeir is a key transit hub for crude oil exports and domestic energy infrastructure, linking Gulf oil flows to the Suez Canal and Mediterranean markets. 'Any disruption or foreign control in this area could jeopardise Egypt's energy security and further involve the country in the broader regional struggle over trade routes, resource flows, and political dominance,' the army veteran concluded.
Miami Herald
20-05-2025
- Miami Herald
Satellite Images Show Progress on World's Largest Archeological Museum
The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM), hailed as the world's largest archaeological museum, is in the final stages of preparation ahead of a grand opening this July. Newsweek has reached out to GEM and the Egyptian Tourism Ministry for comment. Perched near the iconic pyramids of Giza, the GEM is set to become a new center of global heritage tourism. The museum capitalizes on enduring fascination with ancient Egypt-one of history's most studied civilizations-and marks a major investment in economic tourism for the region, which has been struggling. Satellite imagery captured by Google Earth has shown construction progress of the GEM, which is poised to become the world's largest museum for a single civilization, according to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Sisi has invited US President Donald Trump and Spain's King Felipe VI to attend the ceremony, the Egyptian presidency said in February. High-profile figures and celebrities have visited the GEM in a soft opening phase, including Massad Boulos, Trump's advisor for Arab Affairs and the Middle East. According to Egypt's government, the museum spans 100,000 square meters, with 45,000 for exhibits and the rest housing a library, labs, cinema, shops and restaurants. Housing 100,000 artifacts from ancient Egyptian civilization-from the Pharaonic, Greek and Roman eras-one of its most important collections will be that of Tutankhamun, including a ceremonial chair and gilded canopic shrine. Egypt has been actively working to recover ancient artifacts that it said were illegally taken out of the country over past decades, tracking items through international auctions, online sales, and diplomatic channels. Officials say they have repatriated tens of thousands of antiquities since 2011, including from the United States. Ahmed Ghoneim, CEO of GEM told Al-Qahera News TV channel in February, translated from Arabic: "The Grand Egyptian Museum, as President Sisi said, is Egypt's gift to the world. Its opening may be the world's biggest cultural event in the past decade and in the coming one." Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi speaking at the Police Academy in December, translated from Arabic: "The Grand Museum is a milestone shift in the world museums not only in Egypt because it is the largest museum for a single civilization, which is the Pharaonic civilization." UNESCO in 2017 World Heritage review report: "One hundred thousand artefacts will find their new home in the GEM. Fifty thousand of these will be on permanent display, including 30,000 pieces that have never been shown before." The Grand Egyptian Museum is expected to launch over a few days on July, 3. The museum will be closed to the public from June, 15 and will reopen on July, 6. Related Articles How the Met Gala Discourse Shifted Under TrumpHow Can We Never Forget What We Don't Remember? | OpinionWe Need New Art-Imagining a Path Beyond Trumpism | OpinionTrump Order Targets Museum Opened by Barack Obama 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
20-05-2025
- Newsweek
Satellite Images Show Progress on World's Largest Archeological Museum
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM), hailed as the world's largest archaeological museum, is in the final stages of preparation ahead of a grand opening this July. Newsweek has reached out to GEM and the Egyptian Tourism Ministry for comment. Why It Matters Perched near the iconic pyramids of Giza, the GEM is set to become a new center of global heritage tourism. The museum capitalizes on enduring fascination with ancient Egypt—one of history's most studied civilizations—and marks a major investment in economic tourism for the region, which has been struggling. What To Know Satellite imagery captured by Google Earth has shown construction progress of the GEM, which is poised to become the world's largest museum for a single civilization, according to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Drag slider compare photos Sisi has invited US President Donald Trump and Spain's King Felipe VI to attend the ceremony, the Egyptian presidency said in February. High-profile figures and celebrities have visited the GEM in a soft opening phase, including Massad Boulos, Trump's advisor for Arab Affairs and the Middle East. According to Egypt's government, the museum spans 100,000 square meters, with 45,000 for exhibits and the rest housing a library, labs, cinema, shops and restaurants. Housing 100,000 artifacts from ancient Egyptian civilization—from the Pharaonic, Greek and Roman eras—one of its most important collections will be that of Tutankhamun, including a ceremonial chair and gilded canopic shrine. Egypt has been actively working to recover ancient artifacts that it said were illegally taken out of the country over past decades, tracking items through international auctions, online sales, and diplomatic channels. Officials say they have repatriated tens of thousands of antiquities since 2011, including from the United States. This picture taken on September 21, 2019 shows a view of the golden sarcophagus of the ancient Egyptian Pharaoh Tutankhamun (reigned between 1342-1325 BC) as it lies for restoration at the restoration lab of the... This picture taken on September 21, 2019 shows a view of the golden sarcophagus of the ancient Egyptian Pharaoh Tutankhamun (reigned between 1342-1325 BC) as it lies for restoration at the restoration lab of the newly-built Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) in Giza on the southwestern outskirts of the capital Cairo. More MOHAMED EL-SHAHED/AFP/Getty Images What People Are Saying Ahmed Ghoneim, CEO of GEM told Al-Qahera News TV channel in February, translated from Arabic: "The Grand Egyptian Museum, as President Sisi said, is Egypt's gift to the world. Its opening may be the world's biggest cultural event in the past decade and in the coming one." Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi speaking at the Police Academy in December, translated from Arabic: "The Grand Museum is a milestone shift in the world museums not only in Egypt because it is the largest museum for a single civilization, which is the Pharaonic civilization." UNESCO in 2017 World Heritage review report: "One hundred thousand artefacts will find their new home in the GEM. Fifty thousand of these will be on permanent display, including 30,000 pieces that have never been shown before." What Happens Next The Grand Egyptian Museum is expected to launch over a few days on July, 3. The museum will be closed to the public from June, 15 and will reopen on July, 6.
Libya Observer
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Libya Observer
El-Sisi and Putin discuss Libyan developments
Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has discussed with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, developments in Libya, during a meeting on the sidelines of the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on Friday. The Egyptian presidency said in a statement that the talks between the two sides covered the Libyan situation among other international issues, along with the situations in Syria and Sudan, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The statement added that el-Sisi emphasized "Egypt's position, which calls for diplomatic solutions to international crises to preserve international peace and security." News Tagged: Abdel Fattah El Sisi Vladimir Putin
