Latest news with #AbhijitSurya
Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars off fresh highs, data soft again
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars levelled out on Wednesday after scaling fresh highs for the year overnight, while soft domestic data cemented already overwhelming wagers for another cut in Australian rates when the central bank meets next week. The Aussie edged off to $0.6570, having notched a seven-month top of $0.6590 in the previous session. That continues a recent pattern of the currency marking highs during London and New York hours when the global forex market is most liquid and selling pressure on the US dollar most intense. The kiwi dollar was a shade lower at $0.6091, after reaching $0.6120 overnight in the first break of the $0.6100 barrier since October last year. Australian data showed retail sales eked out a gain of just 0.2% in May, missing forecasts of 0.4% and the fourth straight month of miserly outcomes. The disappointing report confounded expectations that lower borrowing costs and rising real incomes would revive household demand, and suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to again downgrade its consumption forecasts. "With consumer spending remaining in the doldrums, there is a strong case for the RBA to cut rates faster and further than most are predicting," said Abhijit Surya, a senior economist at Capital Economics. "Moreover, with business conditions deteriorating and price pressures easing in tandem, we believe the Bank will want to frontload policy easing." Investors are already pricing in a 97% chance the RBA will cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% when it meets on July 8, and it is rare for policymakers to hold steady when the market is so heavily one-sided. The market also implies rates will keep falling to a floor of 2.85%, taking it under most estimates of neutral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also meets next week, but is widely expected to pause its easing cycle, having already slashed rates by 225 basis points to 3.25%. Policymakers have indicated that rates are now in the neutral zone and they want to wait to see the impact of past cuts. Yet investors still see scope for one or two more quarter-point moves towards 2.85%, in part because the small open economy is vulnerable to any slowdown in global trade stemming from US tariffs.
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Australia, NZ dollars off fresh highs, data soft again
SYDNEY, July 2 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars levelled out on Wednesday after scaling fresh highs for the year overnight, while soft domestic data cemented already overwhelming wagers for another cut in Australian rates when the central bank meets next week. The Aussie edged off to $0.6570, having notched a seven-month top of $0.6590 in the previous session. That continues a recent pattern of the currency marking highs during London and New York hours when the global forex market is most liquid and selling pressure on the U.S. dollar most intense. The kiwi dollar was a shade lower at $0.6091, after reaching $0.6120 overnight in the first break of the $0.6100 barrier since October last year. Australian data showed retail sales eked out a gain of just 0.2% in May, missing forecasts of 0.4% and the fourth straight month of miserly outcomes. The disappointing report confounded expectations that lower borrowing costs and rising real incomes would revive household demand, and suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to again downgrade its consumption forecasts. "With consumer spending remaining in the doldrums, there is a strong case for the RBA to cut rates faster and further than most are predicting," said Abhijit Surya, a senior economist at Capital Economics. "Moreover, with business conditions deteriorating and price pressures easing in tandem, we believe the Bank will want to frontload policy easing." Investors are already pricing in a 97% chance the RBA will cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% when it meets on July 8, and it is rare for policymakers to hold steady when the market is so heavily one-sided. The market also implies rates will keep falling to a floor of 2.85%, taking it under most estimates of neutral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also meets next week, but is widely expected to pause its easing cycle, having already slashed rates by 225 basis points to 3.25%. Policymakers have indicated that rates are now in the neutral zone and they want to wait to see the impact of past cuts. Yet investors still see scope for one or two more quarter-point moves towards 2.85%, in part because the small open economy is vulnerable to any slowdown in global trade stemming from U.S. tariffs. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
Reuters
28-01-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Australia inflation cools in Q4, opens door to rate cut
SYDNEY, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Australian consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in almost four years in the December quarter, while a pullback in housing costs helped cool core inflation and open the door to a cut in interest rates as early as next month. Wednesday's benign price report saw markets price in an 80% probability the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut the 4.35% cash rate by a quarter point when it next meets on Feb. 18. That would be the first policy change in more than a year and the first easing since the depths of the pandemic. A fall in borrowing costs would also be welcomed by the Labor government which faces a tough election this year. Local bonds rallied in reaction, while the Aussie dollar dipped 0.3% to $0.6228 . The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter, under forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Some of the moderation was due to government rebates on electricity and other subsidies, which will tend to reverse once they expire. Annual inflation dropped to 2.4%, from 2.8% the previous quarter and a peak of 7.8% in late 2022, leaving it bang in the middle of the RBA's 2-3% target band. Crucially, a key measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, increased by just 0.5% in the fourth quarter, the smallest rise since mid-2021. The annual pace slowed to 3.2%, helped by an easing in the cost of buying, building and renting homes. The central bank also likes to look at core inflation over two quarters annualised, and that was down at 2.6%. "If trimmed mean CPI keeps rising at the same pace as it has over the second half of last year, it will reach the mid-point of the band by mid-year, whereas the RBA's current forecasts assume that benchmark won't be met until end-2026," said Abhijit Surya, an economist at Capital Economics. "The upshot is that we now expect the Bank to begin its easing cycle in February, rather than May." Just last month, the RBA board surprised many by saying it was more confident inflation was slowing as hoped and that might allow it to ease policy at some stage. Major central banks around the world have been cutting rates for some months, leaving the RBA lagging the pack as it waited for domestically-driven inflation to recede. Wednesday's data showed prices in the services sector did ease somewhat to 4.3% in the fourth quarter, while inflation for goods dropped to the lowest since 2016 at 0.8%. Arguing against the need for a near-term cut in rates is the strength of the labour market, with unemployment holding around an historically low 4.0% for much of the past year. Yet the high demand for workers has been met in part by an influx of skilled migrants, preventing an upward spiral in wages. The government's main measure of wage growth has slowed to 3.5%, from a peak of 4.3%, even as employment galloped ahead. here.
