Latest news with #AdamTurnquist
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How investors should prep for a possible summer market pullback
Investors may be looking at a late summer pause for stocks (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) as macro uncertainty weighs on market momentum. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, joins Morning Brief to explain how he's guiding clients through shifting tariffs, Federal Reserve expectations, and technical signals heading into the second half of the year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. I'm really curious as a firm, how you guys use this technical analysis, sort of combined with the fundamental backdrop where you've got sort of this shifting tariff deadline, right? You have the bill that just passed. You have geopolitical tensions going on, just a lot of other things, as always to watch. So how do you sort of integrate that with the technical strategy? The macro's been exceptionally complex, we'll call it, in the first half, and even if we look out to the second half, of course, technicals tell us one part of the story and and what price action is doing, but we also have to marry that with the fundamentals and the macro environment. And we look out at the second half here, we're constructive on the market. Little hard to get around the valuation and earnings growth story, especially with all of the uncertainty. We don't have really a lot of concrete details on trade, moving in the right direction. I think the market is okay with that for now, as we'll see how July 9th shakes out and if the August 1st, what what countries are going to be implemented for that August 1st, assumingly August 1st, tariff implementation? And of course, just what the Fed is going to do? We have Fed on hold. Maybe they will cut in September, doesn't look like a a July rate cut is likely. So that macro backdrop, not exactly conducive for the momentum we've seen continuing in the second half. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a little bit of a pause or pull back, maybe late summer for the S&P 500. So what are you what are you telling clients to do right now, then given, putting all of that together, if you're still expecting when all is said and done, maybe some modest gains in the second half? Right now, we're neutral equity markets. So neutral is not negative. So benchmark weight in terms of your allocation to equity markets. And look, we're looking for a potential buy the dip opportunity. That's what we think the market environment welcomes versus chasing this rally right now. So buying the dip on some type of pull back to a concrete technical level, support level for the broader market. That's what we're looking for in the second half here, potentially moving to more of an overweight if the stars align on and across our strategies. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why 'buy the dip' is still the winning playbook before earnings season
Stocks (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) sit near record highs, but growing tariff concerns and stretched technicals could weigh on momentum. LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporters Allie Canal and Ines Ferré break down what to watch ahead of earnings season. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Opening Bid here. we are watching, uh, of course all things tariffs. Now, this is an issue that for the past month and a half, I would argue investors have forgotten about, sending stocks to record highs. Now that it's back in the discussion, what might trading look like in the very short term? On a near-term basis, you can't overlook the prospect of a little bit of a pullback when you look at the technicals for the broader market. Around 20% of index constituents are overbought based on a momentum indicator that we look at. That's near the qualifier where you tend to get a pause or pullback in price action. We've had obviously an impressive run in terms of just the rate of change we've witnessed since April. So maybe the uncertainty ticking higher with some of the brick announcements and just the July 9th headline could weigh on equity market momentum on the near term, but I do think it is a buy the dip market right now. Why is it buy the dip, Adam? And I ask that because from what we have seen, uh, on the tariff front, it still looks like tariffs will continue to be in place. And as we're on the cusp of earning season, uh, what company wants to see tariffs in place? Good question. I, I think when, from the market's perspective, the White House has shown some flexibility on these tariff deadlines and the tariff rates. So for now, that seems to be the playbook and we're sequencing more toward trade deals, not the sticker shock from liberation day. And on the earnings front, here I am a technical analyst talking about earnings, but I would have to call it a catalyst. We've had pretty big downward revisions going into reporting season. I think it does set up for a low bar for earnings, around 5% earnings growth. That's down from about 9% expectations. So larger than expected cuts, I do think it could bode well for a beat. That tends to be the playbook in terms of quarterly earnings. We'll see how big that beat is, but I think right now a pretty good setup when you have solid earnings, decent enough economy, and pretty good momentum in the market. Ally, at the top of the show, you talked about Amazon, and I think Amazon is the perfect tariff proxy. This stock has pretty much done nothing, hasn't really participated in this record setting rally. What's the message from that, uh, in your view? Yeah, and if you look at some of those other mag seven names like Nvidia, Microsoft, they've seen these outside gains, but Amazon has really struggled here. And I think it points to this consumer that is a little nervous about the trajectory of the economy. Right now, things seem pretty good. We had that solid labor report last week. That was a surprise to many on Wall Street. We have stocks at record highs. Yet, this is sort of the most hated rally. That's something that Funstrat analyst, Tom Lee, described it, in the sense that there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, and there seems to be a lot of FOMO driven names that have done really well, a lot of momentum plays, even some of the meme stocks that we talk about on this show have outperformed this market. And what does that tell you? It potentially signals that maybe we're in a bit more of a frothy environment, perhaps we're a little bit overstretched. So there is a possibility that we could see more of a pullback down the line, even as stocks have seen this resilience narrative play out over the past few weeks, and especially since the April lows that we saw. So I think on the consumer side, there's still the question of whether or not tariffs will trickle through into the economy, if that could weigh on growth, if that will lead to higher prices. It certainly will keep the Fed on hold for longer and increases the uncertainty for the central bank, and we know the impact that that has on various, uh, areas for the consumer, especially when you think about mortgage rates and a lot of areas of the economy that the consumer has been priced out with so far. So that is the big TBD factor of this all, is how tariffs play out and trickle through the economic indicators that we look at closely. Ally, real good points here, and it brings to light a new Yahoo Finance Maris poll that was out this morning, had to tip to our producer Paloma. Uh, that full piece is now on the Yahoo Finance page. 80% of consumers polled have concerns about their personal finances in large part because of these tariffs. My question to you is, Inez, where are you seeing some caution in the market? Sure, we're still at records, but there are, there are some concerns starting to build in the market, notably around potential complacency. Yeah, I mean, look, it all depends on how the consumer reacts going into this second half of the year. And if you have, though, the, uh, the bigger spenders that are contributing towards the economy, that is what really is, is important. If they continue, if the higher income households continue to spend, that is, is what's most, most important because they're the ones that are contributing most to the economy. But certainly, when you look at the lower income households, they are feeling squeezed, and you are seeing it in survey after survey. Sign in to access your portfolio
Mint
26-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Stock investors are embracing risk on the cusp of new highs
Forget TACOs and memes, we're in the era of the YOLO trade. War, tariffs, a spending bill that adds to the ballooning U.S. deficit. There have been no shortages of major worries for the market lately, and yet stocks seem to continually shrug off each new worry, with the S&P 500 trading comfortably over 6,000 and not far from its all-time high. The philosophy that 'you only live once' encourages people to embrace risk and take chances while they can. That idea might help explain why investors have been so relentlessly optimistic recently, despite a barrage of headlines that might have been expected to bring the mood down. The S&P 500 High Beta Index, which measures the performance of 100 constituents in the S&P 500 that are most sensitive to changes in market returns, is a good example. It, along with the Invesco S&P 500 High Beta exchange-traded fund, are up well over 6% this past month, and SPHB has soared more than 41% since the April 8 post-Liberation Day lows. That compares to the S&P 500, which is up 2.9% in the past month and has risen some 22% from April 8, and the iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF, which is up an anemic 1.2% in the past month and just under 18% since April 8. Investors might have expected just the opposite, with so many potential geopolitical and domestic boogeymen in the background. Still, the moves do make sense in light of the ongoing artificial-intelligence trade and the initial tariff meltdown. Capex spending is usually a negative for tech stocks, notes Joseph Mezrich, founder of investment strategy firm Metafoura, but has actually been a driver over the past month: 'The positive turn for capex spending in large-cap tech likely reflects investors' view that the massive capex spending for AI is now a good thing. That would show up as a positive for beta (and tech).' The SPHB is, not surprisingly, heavily weighted toward the tech sector, with plenty of semiconductor companies that have benefited from the resurgence of AI enthusiasm, notes Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. So with the Nasdaq Composite up just over 4% in the past month and the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising some 12.5%, it isn't surprising that the high-beta ETF has also been taken along for the ride. Yet we're also still feeling the impact of the tariff rollercoaster, he says: High-beta stocks were one of the most oversold categories after the Liberation Day announcement, SPHB was 'a logical spot' for anyone who was looking to 'add risk and have a high tolerance for volatility.' Moreover, the tariffs were just one of a long series of events coming out of Donald Trump's administration that would have been shocking under any other leader, but have now become commonplace—to the point that investors are getting desensitized to his bombastic moves. 'Investors are acclimating to the Trump White House, so the shock factor has worn off a little and the headlines get a little less potent,' Turnquist says. There are some other contributing factors, too, he notes: Investors have been positively conditioned to buy the dip in recent years, there is optimism that the government is moving more toward pro-growth policies, the first-quarter earnings season wasn't nearly as bad as expected, and Treasury yields have backed off from their highs. Overall though, investors just seem interested in taking the bull market by the horns. Write to Teresa Rivas at
Miami Herald
22-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran chartist unveils eye-popping S&P 500 target
With the stock market again flirting with record highs, investors want to know if their portfolios can keep climbing the proverbial wall of worry or whether the recent gains have been a last gasp before headline risks kick in and the next downturn starts. It's a fair question in a market that has largely performed to analyst expectations only if you measure prognostications by their beginning and end points. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Plenty of analysts expected the market to be near peak levels by mid-year, but no one was calling for the bumpy ride that stock market has actually seen. The S&P 500's roller coaster ride this year has left many scratching their heads, wondering what may happen next. Many on Wall Street are revamping their S&P 500 targets, including two long-time technical analysts who recently shared their updated forecast. Bloomberg/Getty Images The Standard & Poor's 500 Index entered 2025 at 5,868 and peaked on February 19 at 6,144; it then proceeded to give back nearly all of that gain by the time April rolled around. But after President Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" – when he announced sweeping tariff plans that rattled the markets – the index lost another 15% in a matter of days, setting a new low on April 8 at 4,982. The market then began to grind its way back; a month after Liberation Day, on May 2, it had recovered the full measure of the decline triggered by the tariff announcement. By May 13, the S&P 500 was in positive territory for the year. Related: Fed official sends shocking message on interest rate cuts Since then, it has ground higher, crossing 6,000 on June 6; that – and the record of 6,144 – was where a lot of market observers expected to see resistance, where a market that failed to break through could fall back, potentially all the way back to the April lows. While news events don't become part of the S&P 500 chart until they show up in prices, they do factor into what market technicians think can happen next. Technical analysts can cite legitimate concerns about a potential economic slowdown, sticky inflation, uncertain tariff policies, geopolitical tensions around the world and more. Those headlines cast a shadow over the market, which has market technicians looking for a breakthrough to confirm that the recent bounce-back isn't just a bear market rally. Two prominent technical analysts have made it clear that they expect the rally to hold, with new record highs coming any day now. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says that investors see the messy economic backdrop and figure it's not conducive for a rally to new highs. Focus on the technicals and rely on history, however, and Turnquist says a different picture emerges. Related: Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast For starters, bottoms are a process where the market hits lows and then tests them repeatedly, but the April downturn was V-shaped, steep and fast down but with a hard bounce and no-retest of the downturn. There is reason to believe in the upside, Turnquist says. In an interview on "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe," Turnquist noted that LPL research shows that over the last 75 years, when there is a meaningful new high three months after the last high was set, momentum tends to keep rolling, and the average return for the index over the ensuing 12 months is nearly 10 percent. "We can't discount the fact that we have a lot of trade uncertainty," Turnquist said. "Yes, we're past peak policy uncertainty when it comes to trade, but still very elevated, still a lot of headline risk. We talk about the deficit as well. There's risk there." Turnquist said if the market struggles to break through to new highs, a lot of analysts will call for a double-top and expect a fall back to at least the 5,400 level on the S&P 500. That's a 50% retracement on the rally, and it overlaps with some of the lows from last September. More Experts Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and goldTheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast #8: Common Sense Investing With David MillerVeteran fund manager sends dire message on stocks For that reason, Turnquist expects the market to find "a confluence of support around those levels," but that's not the move he's calling for. Instead, he called this "a market where you want to be buying dips and not selling rips right now." He's not the only technical analyst who foresees those rips and new highs. Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, said in an interview on the June 17 edition of Money Life that the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally. He said he now has a 7,000 target on the S&P 500, meaning a gain of roughly 20% in the next 12 months. "The momentum has been strong, and we have seen a lot of great participation across sectors," Fox said. "It's not just a handful of stocks that has driven this rebound from the April tariff lows; it has been the entire market. I think that's a good sign that not only will we test those new highs but we will keep on going up and keep on making new highs for the foreseeable future." Fox said the current charts are particularly strong, noting that he sees a lot of cup-and-handle patterns indicating stocks on the verge of a breakout. "It seems like we are in this sweet spot where the charts are lining up perfectly as the fundamentals are improving, and that can lead to some explosive moves," Fox said, noting that the conditions he sees in current charts remind him of 2013, a year in which the S&P 500 gained nearly 33%. "This is reminiscent of that," he said. "I'm worried to come off as too bullish, but I think it's hard not to be pretty constructive on the market going forward." Related: Veteran fund manager sends dire message on stocks The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Buy the dip vs. sell the rip? Here's what technicals are saying.
US stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) open Tuesday's trading session just a smidge in negative territory as Wall Street experts are wary of a potential stall to the market rally. Simultaneously, retail investors have flocked back to markets as many participated in buying the dip in April. But should investors be selling the rip rather than buying the dip right now? LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist joins Madison Mills on the Morning Brief to check what the technicals are telling about the direction equities are heading, as well as the bond market (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) as the 30-year Treasury yield flirts with its 5% benchmark. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
