Latest news with #AgriculturalandHorticulturalDevelopmentBoard
Agriland
11 hours ago
- Business
- Agriland
AHDB: International grain and oilseed prices on the rise
International grain and oilseed prices rises have risen in line with a strengthening oil market, according to analysts with the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). There are also indications that crop concerns and short covering by speculative traders have supported cereal prices over recent days. In the US, heavy rain has delayed the winter wheat harvest, while spring wheat crops have improved after a dry start. Meanwhile, conditions continue to look generally positive for maize and soya bean crops with planting almost complete. Limited rainfall is also a concern in Canada. According to AHDB, planting is complete in the top grain and canola (rapeseed) growing province, Saskatchewan. However, rain will be needed to support crop development. In France, ongoing dry weather has meant declines in crop condition scores. The winter barley harvest is now underway in that country. Where spring barley is concerned, the proportion in 'good or very good' condition has fallen from 71% to 67% over recent days. Dry weather is also impacting Russia, particularly in the country's main winter wheat growing areas. However, the Russian government currently forecasts the 2025 crop at 90.0 megatonnes (Mt), up from last year's 82.6Mt. In addition, the grain harvest is also underway in southern Ukraine, which has likewise felt the effects of dry weather. The country's farm ministry expects a wheat crop of 20.0–22.0Mt, compared to almost 23.0Mt in 2024. Irish cereals harvest The Irish winter barley harvest is expected to kick-off in a few days' time. The forecast yields for all winter cereal crops grown in Ireland during 2024/25 remain strong. In contrast, many spring crops sown out in April came under considerable stress on the back of the very dry conditions across the country during the entire month of May. The winter oilseed rape harvest will follow on at the end of July. And here again, yields look to be promising despite the significant damage caused by pigeons grazing many crops back in February. Disease pressure on crops remains low at the present time. However, bucking this trend somewhat has been a late season impact of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus on spring barley crops. Teagasc research scientists are currently investigating the reasons for this. Meanwhile, Met Éireann is forecasting somewhat changeable weather for the first week of July. However, there is the prospect of drier and warmer conditions prevailing as the month progresses.
Agriland
a day ago
- Business
- Agriland
Avian flu, enhanced welfare standards impact UK poultry feed production
A decline in UK poultry feed production levels has been confirmed by the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). Driving this trend has been a combination of factors including avian flu and the introduction of enhanced bird welfare standards, according to the board. Animal feed production accounts for over 50% of total domestic cereal usage in the UK, the AHDB said. Demand from the poultry sector continues to consume the largest share of this output. However, the percentage share that poultry feed demand has slightly this season (July 2024-April 2025) compared with the previous five-year average. Poultry feed production In overall terms, total GB poultry feed production up to this point in 2024/25 is down 2% on the same period last year. AHDB said there are a number of factors driving this decline. From a broiler perspective, a number of large UK supermarkets have committed to reducing bird stocking densities to improve welfare standards. This has led to a 21% reduction in stocking rates for some producers, down from 38kg/m² to 30kg/m², AHDB said. In addition, avian influenza outbreaks and higher energy costs have impacted producer margins. Feed typically represents around 50% of total broiler production costs. However, in 2023/24, feed accounted for 64.3% of total costs, according to data from the UK Farm Business Survey. According to the AHDB, while there have been reductions in costs recently, these have not returned to pre-war levels. Meanwhile, broiler chick placements within the UK poultry industry have fallen consistently since their peak in 2021 at just under 1.19 billion chicks. This is down 6.5% to 1.11 billion in 2024. However, the AHDB said from January to May 2025, there has been the first signs of growth since 2021, with placings up 4.6% (477.3 million) compared to the same point last year. Poultry meat Significantly, there is no projected slowing in demand for poultry meat, with UK consumption levels estimated to increase by 250g/person/year by 2028. For layers, 2020 was the peak of layer placings in the UK with 40.5 million head. Numbers dropped off after this to a nine-year-low in 2022 to 34.2 million chicks, the AHDB said. Reasons hold parallel to that of the broiler industry, as the Farm Business Survey found that fuel and heat costs were up 12% and 19% respectively, with prices being paid by retailers not matching the rise in costs. As for feed, layers make up a smaller proportion of total feed consumption compared with broilers, but still substantial, the AHDB said. Looking forward, according to the board, the laying sector still has room for growth and is not yet back to 2020 capacity. However, from January to May, UK layer chick placings were up 3% on year earlier levels, suggesting growth in the sector. Meanwhile, the anticipated rise in demand for poultry meat is likely to drive increases in feed usage. However, longer-term projections are complicated by external pressures, particularly the uncertainty surrounding future trade agreements and ongoing volatility in global energy and input markets.
Agriland
14-06-2025
- Science
- Agriland
The potential impact of yellow rust disease on Irish wheat production
The threat posed by yellow rust disease to Irish wheat crops has been characterised as both complex and evolving by Goldcrop cereal variety manager, John Dunne. He explained: 'Up to this point, yellow rust has been a disease with a very clear geographic footprint in Ireland. It impacts, for the most part, on crops grown along the eastern seaboard. 'And there is a very clear rational for this. The attacking fungus prefers regions that are slightly cooler with relatively higher humidity levels. 'In addition, crops grown on these coasts are more predisposed to windborne fungal spores coming across the Irish Sea form Great Britain. 'If sand can be carried by prevailing winds from the North Africa to Ireland then the challenge of fungal spores making their way across the Irish Sea can be put into perspective very easily.' Higher relative temperatures recorded over seven of the last eight months can also partly explain the rise in the threat posed by yellow rust to Irish wheat crops in 2025. Dunne said: 'I have been monitoring three weather Irish stations since last October, and the data generated clearly shows that – January apart – monthly temperatures have been on the rise, year-on-year. 'This set of circumstances has facilitated yellow rust. And it has also increased the Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV) threat impacting on cereal crops.' Yellow rust-resistant genes Adding to all of this has been the confirmed breakdown of the Yr15 gene, which up to this point had been delivering a high degree of protection against yellow rust in a number of winter wheat varieties. The issue was first identified by Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) scientists in north-east England earlier this year. Dunne said he has been monitoring that 'fast-evolving situation' ever since, as Goldcrop grows a number of new crop varieties for AHDB at its Irish trial sites 'We now know that the issue of the Yr15 gene breakdown is now a reality in the UK, Ireland, Denmark, and The Netherlands,' Dunne said. 'But this is a very complex issue. Disease resistance can be provided by a single gene or a number of specific genes working in association with each other. 'Plant pathologists at the UK's National Institute of Agricultural Botany are striving to identify what has actually happened with regard to Yr15's interaction with new yellow rust variants.' According to the Goldcrop representative, these recent developments will be of direct interest to plant breeders and the wheat development programmes they follow into the future. 'The yellow rust issue was a major talking point at our recent open days,' he said. Dunne added that as the situation is still rapidly evolving, it is 'still too early to gauge' how it will impact on Irish wheat production. 'But one thing is already clear. There will be an elevated number of yellow rust spores in the Irish environment over the next two years. 'And Irish tillage farmers will have to take full note of this reality as they plan their future crop protection programmes,' the Goldcrop representative added.
Agriland
08-06-2025
- Business
- Agriland
UK animal feed output levels up by 1.4%
Figures just published by the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) confirm a 1.4% increase in animal feed output across the UK. The data covers the ten months up to April 30 this year. During this period, total production of Great Britain's (GB's) animal feed – including by integrated poultry units (IPUs) – has reached 11.4 mega tonnes (Mt). This is up marginally (+1.4%) year-on-year, and up 2.2% on the previous five-year average. The key driver of this climb in feed demand is the cattle sector, and to a lesser extent the sheep sector. Cattle and calf feed demand has seen a 5% rise this season so far, with climbs in both dairy and beef feed production, and improved beef and milk prices supporting growth in 2024/25. Despite a 2.2% increase in total feed production on the back of more competitively priced alternative proteins, AHDB analysts are confirming a lower rate of cereal inclusion this season. As such, total cereals usage (excl. maize used by IPUs) is relatively unchanged on the year (+0.2%). Maize In terms of cereal splits, maize usage has remained firm throughout the season so far, with usage by GB compounders up 37% (109 kilo tonnes (Kt)) on 2023/24 levels. As maize imports were priced competitively earlier in the season, large quantities were bought forward, and as such, firm imports and usage have continued as we head towards the end of the season. In addition, the upturn in maize usage, as well as the lack of domestic supply, has seen wheat used by British compounders drop back 3% (89Kt) year-on-year. Looking ahead for animal feed In the short term, some increase in demand for cereals is envisaged on the back of a more positive cattle and sheep outlook. However, the price relationship between cereals and alternative raw materials will be key to overall usage. Additionally, price movement of imported maize against domestic wheat will be something to watch in the new season beginning in July. Current grain markets Meanwhile, international grain markets have remained in the doldrums this week. Pressure has come from better-than-expected US crop conditions and steady EU export demand. However, Black Sea supplies and any updates on tensions in Ukraine and Russia remain in focus. In addition, 52% of the US winter wheat crop has been rated as being in good or excellent condition, up from 50% a week earlier and above analyst expectations. In terms of development, 83% of the crop has now headed, with harvest well underway in Texas and other southern states. The proportion of the US maize crop rated in good or excellent condition has reached 69% in Monday's report, up from 68% the week before, but in line with expectations.
Agriland
19-05-2025
- Business
- Agriland
AHDB: UK-US trade deal could be good news for British beef sector
New trade agreements agreed between the UK and the US could see increased quantities of British beef heading across the Atlantic. Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) analysts have identified the key opportunities and threats associated with the new UK-US Comprehensive Prosperity Deal. According to the AHDB, on the upside, the UK will be able to export up to 13,000t of beef to the US, tariff-free, following changes to an existing tariff rate quota (TRQ). The US has a TRQ for beef imports, within which there are country-specific quotas for Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, and Uruguay. British beef The UK, along with Brazil, has access to the US TRQ under the 'Other Countries' allocation, which is 65,005t. In practical terms, however, it has been challenging for the UK to make use of this TRQ for British beef for as Brazil often uses the entire allocation. In 2024, Brazil had made use of the 'Other Countries' allocation by March 28 (it opened on January 1, 2024). This year, the 'Other Countries' allocation was spent in just 17 days after opening at the start of the calendar year, the AHDB said. The proximity of Brazil to the US has also put the UK at a disadvantage in this respect, according to the board. UK beef exporters would be wary of risking sending shipments of beef across the Atlantic only to find upon arrival that the quota allocation has been used up and they would face full tariff rates for British beef to cross the US border. The new UK-US trade deal removes this risk, as the UK would have its own TRQ allocation. But this will not all be one-way traffic. Currently, the US has a 1,000t quota for exporting beef to the UK, which is subject to a 20% tariff. Under the prosperity deal, the 20% tariff will be removed and the US will have a preferential beef TRQ of 13,000t. However, US beef imports will have to meet UK food standards, so the Westminster government's red line on this aspect remains intact. While the quantity of beef imports from the US matches that of beef exports from the UK, there are concerns over the value of imported US beef. Imports of high value, premium cuts – such as strip loins – could potentially have a considerable impact on the UK domestic market. The British Meat Processors Association (BMPA) estimates that the UK produces around 3,900t of strip loins which is just under a third of the beef TRQ for the US. Northern Ireland is the best-placed region in the UK to avail of new British beef export opportunities to the US. This is due to Northern Ireland's focus on grass-based beef production systems, which differentiate from US systems. Adding to this is the fact that the deal comes as cattle prices have already reached record highs.
