21-07-2025
Reliance Industries: Buy or sell? Brokerages maintain bullish view, see up to 20% upside on new energy and Jio triggers
By News Desk Published on July 21, 2025, 08:34 IST
Following the June quarter results, global and domestic brokerages have largely maintained a positive stance on Reliance Industries (RIL), with most recommending a Buy rating despite operational softness in Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) and Retail segments. Analysts are looking ahead to key triggers such as the scale-up of New Energy, a Jio tariff hike, and a potential IPO of Jio, as major drivers for the stock.
Here's a round-up of what top brokerages are saying: Jefferies: Buy | Target Price: ₹1,726
Jefferies maintained its Buy rating, projecting a 17% upside from current levels. Although consolidated EBITDA was 3% below estimates, with O2C and Retail segments falling short, Jio's performance was strong, backed by subscriber growth, broadband momentum, and margin expansion. The brokerage expects 11% EBITDA growth in FY26 and sees the AGM as a key event, where updates on a possible Jio listing and tariff hikes could emerge. Nuvama: Buy | Target Price: ₹1,767
Nuvama is the most bullish among the lot, seeing a 20% upside. It views RIL's New Energy ecosystem as the company's next multidecadal growth engine, with key milestones like a fully integrated 10GW solar facility by FY26, GH2 production before the FY27 PLI deadline, and major cost advantages through captive power. Despite a Q1 EBITDA miss, Nuvama sees long-term value from margin-expanding investments across energy and petrochemicals. HSBC: Buy | Target Price: ₹1,630
HSBC reiterated Buy , estimating a 10% upside. It noted that Q1 earnings were supported by a one-time share sale, with operational performance slightly weak due to lower contribution from O2C and Retail. However, the brokerage remains optimistic on the emerging potential of Air Fibre, the retail turnaround, and RIL's push into the New Energy sector. Nomura: Buy | Target Price: ₹1,600
Nomura maintained Buy with an 8% upside, even after cutting its FY26/FY27 PAT forecasts by 1%/10%. It sees three major growth triggers: the New Energy ramp-up, Jio tariff hikes, and a potential IPO of Jio, though now delayed beyond 2025. Net debt and capex remained under control, offering financial stability for future investments. Morgan Stanley (MS): Overweight | Target Price: ₹1,617
Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a 10% upside, despite stating that Q1 results lacked the growth confidence it had hoped for. It pointed to multiple misses in Retail and Refining, but highlighted strong telecom performance, exploration EBITDA beat, and improved balance sheet metrics, including flattish net debt and reduced capex. Macquarie: Outperform | Target Price: ₹1,500
Macquarie has a more tempered view, with a Target Price of ₹1,500 , suggesting a 2% upside. It said the Q1 earnings 'optically' beat estimates due to one-off investment gains, while underlying performance showed strength in Jio, lull in Retail, and gradual recovery in O2C. The brokerage sees long-term optionality in the New Energy, Retail, and Jio segments over a three-year horizon. Verdict
All six brokerages—Jefferies, Nuvama, HSBC, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, and Macquarie—maintain a positive or constructive stance on RIL. Most are betting on long-term structural drivers like New Energy, telecom monetisation, and continued retail expansion to unlock value, even as short-term performance remains mixed due to macro and segment-specific headwinds.
Brokerage Call Summary: Brokerage Rating Target Price (₹) Implied Upside (%) Nuvama Buy 1,767 +20% Jefferies Buy 1,726 +17% HSBC Buy 1,630 +10% Morgan Stanley Overweight 1,617 +10% Nomura Buy 1,600 +8% Macquarie Outperform 1,500 +2%
Disclaimer: The brokerage views expressed above are based on publicly available reports and do not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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