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Reuters
13 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Breakingviews - Why green investors keep getting carried away
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - To paraphrase Mark Twain, speculative bubbles don't repeat themselves, but they often rhyme. The green technology boom that has imploded over the past three years is remarkably similar to the alternative energy bubble that inflated prior to the global financial crisis of 2008. Both frenzies were driven by investors' unrealistic expectations about how quickly new energy technologies would be taken up. What is now known as the Cleantech 1.0 boom took off in 2005 after the U.S. Congress enacted tax credits for renewable energy. Former Vice President Al Gore's 2006 documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth' raised public awareness of climate change. In early 2007 the venture capital investor John Doerr gave a much-publicised TED talk, opens new tab in which he asserted that 'green technologies – going green – is bigger than the internet. It could be the biggest opportunity of the twenty-first century.' Doerr's firm, Kleiner Perkins, later launched a fund to 'help speed mass market adoption of solutions to the climate crisis.' Many other venture capitalists jumped on the bandwagon. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index, launched in 2004, more than doubled between May 2005 and December 2007. Dozens of startups were launched to invest in batteries, solar, biomass and wind energy. An electric vehicle company, Better Place, established in Silicon Valley in 2007, raised nearly $1 billion to build a network of charging stations. Solyndra, an innovative solar panel manufacturer, attracted a host of big-name investors and later received more than $500 million in loan guarantees from the administration of President Barack Obama. No single factor was responsible for pricking the bubble. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 dampened animal spirits; advances in hydraulic fracturing technology led to cheaper U.S. natural gas; Spain and Germany reduced their subsidies for renewable energy; and American solar companies proved unable to compete with subsidised Chinese competitors. Nearly all the 150 renewable energy startups founded in Silicon Valley during the boom subsequently failed, including Solyndra and Better Place. Cleantech venture capital funds launched during the bubble produced negative returns. By the end of 2012 the WilderHill index had fallen 85% from its peak to around 40. By coincidence, that is where the benchmark currently trades. The recent green tech bubble was more extreme. The WilderHill index climbed from 47 in March 2020 to 281 less than a year later. Whereas U.S. venture capitalists spent an estimated $25 billion funding clean energy startups between 2006 and 2011, Silicon Valley splurged more than twice that sum in 2021 alone, according to Silicon Valley Bank. Market valuations were quite absurd. By late 2020, the battery company QuantumScape (QS.N), opens new tab, which came to the market by merging with a blank-check firm, was valued at more than General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab, despite having no sales. The market frenzy is long past. QuantumScape stock is down more than 95% from its peak, while the WilderHill index has fallen 85%. Several listed electric vehicle companies, including truck maker Nikola, have filed for protection from creditors. President Donald Trump's administration is reducing subsidies for renewables and electric vehicles. Oil giants BP (BP.L), opens new tab and Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab are cutting back their alternative energy investments, just as they did after the Cleantech 1.0 boom. The outcome for green venture capital remains unclear but anecdotal evidence suggests that many funds are now changing hands at steep discounts to their appraised valuations. The common error investors made during both booms was to become entranced by extravagant growth forecasts. In his book, 'More and More and More: An All-Consuming History of Energy', Jean-Baptiste Fressoz criticises the application of the sigmoid function – also known as the S-curve – to predict the course of the energy transition. This model describes the adoption of a new technology as starting out slowly, rapidly gathering pace before eventually levelling off when the market becomes saturated. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has used the S-curve in its projections for renewable energy demand and the accompanying decline of fossil fuels. The S-curve was originally discovered a hundred years ago to describe how the population of drosophila flies changes under laboratory conditions. It was later applied, with varying degrees of success, to project human population growth. The American energy scientist M. King Hubbert was the first to use the S-curve to forecast energy production. In the 1950s, advocates for nuclear energy used the model to predict what they believed was the inevitable transition from fossil fuels towards an atomic-powered future. Hubbert also used the S-curve for his famous forecast that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. Vaclav Smil, a leading energy historian, points out that energy transitions are slow, inherently unpredictable and require extraordinary amounts of investment. Fressoz goes further, claiming that – when energy consumption is viewed in absolute rather than relative terms – there has historically never been a transition. It's true that coal took over from wood as the world's prime energy source in the 19th century, and that later oil and natural gas became dominant. Yet the consumption of all these energy sources continued increasing. The world has never burned more wood than it does today. In absolute terms, coal usage continues to grow. The S-curve has also been used to predict the uptake of various green technologies. As Rob West of Thunder Said Energy, a research firm, observed in a report published last September, both the speed of adoption and the ultimate penetration rate for new inventions are variable. For instance, the demand for refrigerators and television by U.S. households grew very rapidly from the outset, with both reaching penetration rates of nearly 100% in just a few decades. Yet it took more than half a century for gas heating to reach 60% of U.S. households, at which point its market share flatlined. 'It is important not to fall into the trap of assuming that the 'top of the S' is an endpoint of 100% adoption,' writes West. Not long ago, electric vehicles were set to rapidly replace the internal combustion engine, but sales forecasts are now being cut back in developed markets. West anticipates that the eventual market share for battery-powered cars will not surpass 30%. That's a guess. The actual outcome will depend on the state of future technology, which is unknowable. That leaves plenty of scope for green investors to get it wrong again. Follow @Breakingviews, opens new tab on X
Yahoo
a day ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Former Trump lawyer loses law license in New York
A lawyer who was part of a plot to overturn the results of the 2020 election and keep Donald Trump in power has lost his license to practice in New York. A New York appeals court determined Thursday that Kenneth Chesebro should be disbarred because of his 2023 conviction in Georgia for his role in the effort to subvert the election. Chesebro has admitted to helping craft a bid to send fraudulent pro-Trump electors from six states to Congress in hopes of flipping the outcome of the election. Chesebro's conduct, the panel wrote in its decision, "strike[s] at the heart of the administration of justice,' and undercuts the very notion of our constitutional democracy that he, as an attorney, swore an oath to uphold.' Chesebro had his law license suspended by the appeals court in October 2024. He was admitted to the state bar in 2007. Chesebro, who assisted former Vice President Al Gore's legal team amid the legal fallout of the 2000 presidential election, wrote several memos giving rise to the fake elector plot in the months after Trump's November 2020 loss. Alongside his Georgia guilty plea, Chesebro also cooperated with prosecutors in Arizona and Georgia and is currently charged in connection with the fraudulent elector plot in Wisconsin. 'Moreover, his cavalier attitude regarding his actions, particularly in the face of his extensive background in the areas of constitutional and election law, largely aggravates his conduct,' the panel said. An attorney representing Chesebro did not immediately respond to a request for comment from POLITICO. Several lawyers who assisted in Trump's bid to overturn the 2020 election have faced consequences for their efforts. Chief among them is attorney John Eastman, who lost his law license in California in 2024.
New York Times
a day ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Lawyer Who Pushed Bogus Trump Elector Scheme Is Disbarred in New York
Kenneth Chesebro, a lawyer who helped spearhead a brazen legal effort to use phony slates of pro-Trump electors to overturn the 2020 presidential election, was disbarred in New York on Thursday, cementing an indefinite ban issued last year. The decision by a New York State appellate court concluded a strange legal journey for a Harvard-educated lawyer who worked for former Vice President Al Gore during the 2000 presidential election recount in Florida and later evolved into a supporter of President Trump. In a seven-page opinion, the court cited a criminal racketeering case centered on the fake electors in Georgia, where in 2023 Mr. Chesebro pleaded guilty. The New York court said Thursday that Mr. Chesebro's 'criminal conduct — conspiracy to commit filing false documents — is unquestionably serious' and that he had undercut 'the very notion of our constitutional democracy that he, as an attorney, swore an oath to uphold.' Mr. Chesebro, 64, could not immediately be reached for comment, and lawyers who have represented him did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The decision came nearly eight months after Mr. Chesebro was indefinitely barred from practicing law in New York because of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The theory that Mr. Chesebro pushed centered on the certification process carried out on Jan. 6, 2021. He posited that Mike Pence, then the vice president, could count bogus slates of electors for Mr. Trump rather than the real ones from states that backed Joseph R. Biden Jr., or otherwise use the existence of the pro-Trump electors to delay the process. In 2022, before Mr. Chesebro was indicted, he told Talking Points Memo that it was 'the duty of any attorney to leave no stone unturned in examining the legal options that exist in a particular situation.' Other lawyers who supported Mr. Trump's efforts to reverse the 2020 election have also faced consequences. In 2023, Sidney K. Powell and Jenna Ellis, two members of Mr. Trump's legal team after the 2020 election, also pleaded guilty in election-interference cases in Georgia. Ms. Ellis's license to practice law in Colorado was suspended last year. Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York City mayor who became Mr. Trump's legal browbeater, was barred from practicing in New York and in Washington, D.C. Mr. Chesebro was mentored at Harvard by Laurence H. Tribe, a leading liberal constitutional law scholar. With Mr. Tribe, Mr. Chesebro helped represent Mr. Gore, a Democrat, in the legal battle over the 2000 presidential election recount. Mr. Tribe said Thursday that Mr. Chesebro was particularly skilled at 'coming up with arguments — sometimes too clever.' 'He's one of the few students who seriously disappointed me,' Mr. Tribe said, adding: 'He's a very smart person who learned how to manipulate and abuse the tools that the law gave him. And it was proved now that he can't be trusted to use those tools at all.' Kitty Bennett contributed research.
Observer
18-06-2025
- General
- Observer
Grief and grit in the climate fight
I didn't come to TED Countdown, a global gathering focused on accelerating climate solutions, in search of answers. I came carrying questions. Heavy ones. About exhaustion. About how long one can stay in the climate movement without losing the very thing that drew them in: belief. It has been four years since I gave my TED talk, filmed in the stillness of Oman's lockdown, standing in the mangroves of Yankit, who have always been more than trees to me. They are teachers. They hold storms, heal waters and never ask for applause. In that moment, even through a screen, I wanted to share that symbol of climate resilience. I did not know then how much I would need that same resilience now. I saw that tension again in Al Gore's talk. His words did not sound rehearsed. They sounded bruised. He spoke against the rise of climate realism, a quiet surrender dressed up as pragmatism. That realism does not make us honest. It makes us tired. It tells us to shrink our vision to match political convenience. But I have never believed realism and ambition are opposites. You can face the facts and still believe in miracles. You can be heartbroken and still show up. There was also a session that asked whether the 1.5 degree target is already dead. Some said yes. Others refused to surrender. But what struck me most was not the debate. It was what it revealed. We are still struggling to mourn while we act. Still learning to speak both loss and urgency in the same breath. In the session I co-led, titled Spiritual Resilience for Climate Action, we asked a different question: what roots us? We read sacred verses, sat in silence and shared the quotes and memories that carry us through. We often reach for graphs and policy briefs. But sometimes, the most powerful thing is a remembered verse or a deep breath before a storm. That space grounded me more than any debate or headline. It was a return to why we do this in the first place. Not for data points, but for the land and lives we love. And then there was the fire. Not in speeches, but in what is already being done. Over a million people have signed on to support the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, led by Pacific Island nations who have no luxury of delay. Outside the United Nations process, they are building the future anyway. That is not protest. It is leadership. The Global South is not waiting to be rescued. It is offering rescue. There is no shortcut through climate grief. But naming it matters. Sitting with it matters. And still choosing to act, especially when the story seems too heavy to lift, is what transforms that grief into something enduring. I am leaving Nairobi without easy optimism. But with something stronger: clarity. Climate fatigue is real. But so is climate faith. And faith, for me, is not just belief in a better outcome. It is belief that showing up again and again matters. That grief can coexist with grit. That stillness can sharpen resolve.
CNN
14-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
A ‘formidable public servant.' Who was Melissa Hortman, the Minnesota congresswoman assassinated in her home?
Congressional news Education policyFacebookTweetLink Follow A dedicated volunteer who taught Sunday school and loved dogs. A lawyer who served as a Girl Scout leader and worked at her dad's auto parts store. A mother and wife whose husband was killed alongside her. Minnesota State Rep. Melissa Hortman was more than just the state House's top Democrat, according to those who knew her. She 'was a bright shining light of a human being,' Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon, who went to law school with Hortman, said in a post on X. Hortman and her husband Mark were shot and killed Saturday morning at their Brooklyn Park home in 'a politically motivated assassination,' Gov. Tim Walz said. The suspect, Vance Boelter, is on the run, officials said. Hortman, a 'formidable public servant,' will be remembered as a giant in Minnesota, Walz said. 'A lifelong resident of the northern suburbs,' Hortman, 55, grew up in Spring Lake Park and Andover, according to a previous campaign page. She graduated from Blaine High School, about 24 miles north of the Minnesota state Capitol where she would later serve as speaker of the house. Hortman worked for then-Senators Al Gore and John Kerry after graduating from Boston College before returning to Minnesota to get her law degree at the University of Minnesota, according to the campaign website and her profile on the Minnesota Legislature website. Gore said he was 'horrified' and 'appalled' by Hortman's assassination, the latest in a string of violence against elected officials. He said in a post on X Hortman had a lasting impact on him, his team, and 'many others who worked with her throughout her impactful career as a public servant and leading climate advocate.' A member of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), Hortman was elected to the state House of Representatives in 2004, and represented District 34B in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis. She served as Speaker of the House from 2019 to 2025 and was DFL Leader when she was killed, according to her legislative profile. A previous campaign page touted her 2013 efforts to enact Minnesota's solar energy standard and community solar laws, and said she was 'particularly active in the areas of transportation, K-12 education funding, higher education, energy, and the environment.' Hortman was also involved with equity and inclusion in Brooklyn Park, the suburb where she lived and died, serving on what is now known as the Brooklyn Park Human Rights Commission, according to her campaign bio. 'She was wise, she was caring, she was brilliant and her smile lifted people up in a good times and helped them through the bad,' Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, who knew Hortman for over 20 years, said in a statement. The state House's Republican leader, Speaker Lisa Demuth, said Hortman was 'respected by everyone at the Capitol.' 'She has had a profound impact on this institution and on my own leadership… We worked together for the last several years to build a strong relationship based on our shared values and our commitment to making our state better,' Demuth said in a statement. After the 2022 midterm elections, Hortman told CNN affiliate WCCO 'choice, climate, gun violence prevention and protecting democracy' would be priorities for the Minnesota state legislature. Legislation on abortion protections, she said at the time, would be 'one of the first if not the first bill passed.' Hortman co-authored recent bills concerning reproductive health care, gender-affirming health care, a state health care public option, and paid family leave among other issues. On Saturday, investigators found a hit list in Boelter's car with nearly 70 names, including abortion providers, pro-abortion rights advocates and lawmakers in Minnesota and other states, a law enforcement official briefed on the matter told CNN. CNN has learned all the Democratic members of Minnesota's Congressional delegation were on the suspect's alleged target list, according to a law enforcement source. 'Melissa was a good friend and we started in politics at the same time and were always there for each other. She was a true public servant to the core, dedicating her life to serving Minnesotans with integrity and compassion,' Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar wrote in a post on X. 'Melissa's legacy will endure, but today we grieve deeply.'
