Latest news with #AlanKohler
ABC News
2 days ago
- Business
- ABC News
Australia is stuck in an economic rut of low real growth
As Alan Kohler explains declining local manufacturing industry and a lack of competition have combined with other factors to paint a poor picture of productivity.
ABC News
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- ABC News
Comedian Mark Humphries tackles housing crisis in documentary Sold! Who Broke the Australian Dream?
"If a D-grade celebrity like me can't afford to buy a home, who can?" It's a cracking first line from satirical wit and sometime ABC star Mark Humphries in his surprisingly jolly rage against the housing crisis, SOLD! Who Broke the Australian Dream? Fast Facts about Sold! Who Broke the Australian Dream What: A tragicomic documentary about the housing crisis Directed by: Mark Humphries Starring: Humphries, Alan Kohler, Purple Pingers and more When: Streaming on Binge now Likely to make you feel: Mad as hell, unless you already own ten houses Not that the Binge documentary, directed by Bill Code, is all about him. A huge swath of Australians, young and old, believe they'll be forever renters. Many who have managed to claw their way onto the lowest rungs of the property ladder are struggling to pay their mortgage. But it wasn't always this way. As bubble-bath-bound financial journalist Alan Kohler (they couldn't afford Margot Robbie) explains in the doco, everything changed in 1999. That's when former prime minister John Howard heavily discounted capital gains tax and ramped up negative gearing, with house prices spiralling ever upwards since. "Howard once said, 'No-one ever complained to me about the value of their house going up,' and that's the issue," Humphries says. "Owners outnumber renters two-to-one. And if you're a politician, you're obviously going to appeal to the majority." Especially when that majority includes roughly 65 per cent of our elected politicians who own at least two properties, with both Labor's Michelle Ananda-Rajah and the LNP's Karen Andrews having seven each. "You want to believe that those people are still capable of recognising the problem and seeing what they have to do," Humphries says. "But it's very hard to imagine change occurring when it's in so many people's best interests to keep things as they are. "But what sort of a system is that? It's grotesque." From The Feed on SBS to The Chaser's War on the ABC and The Project on Network 10, Humphries and regular co-writer Evan Williams have carved sterling careers out of channelling their indignance at injustice into snort-inducing comedy. "The reality is, people don't want to hear you ranting for over 52 minutes," Humphries says. "It's not appealing, so you try to help the medicine go down. But it's coming from a true place of anger." So, what does he believe is the cure for the housing crisis? It's complicated, but Humphries says course-correcting on capital gains and negative gearing is key. Former Labor leader Bill Shorten pops up in Sold! to defend his election-losing policies on that front (plus his democracy sausage-eating skills). "He was a good sport," Humphries says. As is Humphries' dad, former weatherman Allan. "My love of TV was probably a result of going and seeing him at the ABC studios when I was seven," Humphries says. "He did a great job considering he's used to adlibbing, rather than sticking to a script. Sold! also features Jordan van den Lamb — AKA Purple Pingers — the prominent (especially on social media) housing rights activist who also ran on a senate ticket for the Socialist Party in Victoria. "One of the things I really admire about him is that, although there is clearly seething rage underneath what he does, he has this ironic delivery that's so dry." Van den Lamb gleefully takes pot shots at greedy landlords and homes left purposefully vacant. "That really opened my eyes," Humphries says. "It's easy to be critical of someone because they're living in someone else's space. But isn't it more grotesque to have a house that's designed to house people and choose not to and just let it increase in value?" In Melbourne alone, 97,000 properties are vacant, with around 37,000 people homeless. Vast stocks of public housing were sold off in a fire sale lit by former PM Robert Menzies in 1956. And then there's the bogeyman finger-wagging at foreign buyers, who only account for 1 per cent of property purchases, according to the AFR. "The political answer is always, 'Supply, supply, supply,' but we might actually have a good chunk of that supply already there. We're just not using it," says Humphries. "The other thing is, if you're going to increase supply but still have these tax incentives in place, a big chunk will just be eaten up by investors. So how much do you really achieve?" There seems to be little political will to do what must be done to restore faith in the Australian dream. "It's been 25 years since those tax changes came in and this attitude of housing as something that increases in value, of investments and property portfolios," Humphries says. "People have forgotten that it's weird. That this wasn't how it used to be." Maybe things will change again. "I'm choosing to be hopeful because it's unsustainable," Humphries says. "Maybe it has to get worse before it gets better, but when we start seeing issues with social cohesion, and have situations where companies are under-staffed because no-one can live close enough to work, then the shit really hits the fan." Essential workers like nurses deserve to be able to afford a home of their own that's close to their work, Humphries says. Then, just as we're wrapping up, he confesses, full disclosure, that he has, in fact, managed to buy a home since filming Sold! "Don't hate me," he whelps. "I've just crossed the threshold, anxiously observing interest rate levels, but at what cost? I've completely wiped myself out, signing up for a 30-year mortgage at 39." He insists he's keeping it real (estate). "I want people like me not to forget that it's still f***ing shit and it shouldn't be this f***ing hard," he insists. "You should easily be able to afford a home and have money spare to buy an almond latte a day and dumb stuff like a Labubu."
ABC News
13-07-2025
- Business
- ABC News
China is supercharging its renewables industry
As the US slashes incentives for solar, wind and electric vehicles, China is accelerating its energy transition. Alan Kohler explains.
ABC News
19-06-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Alan Kohler on inflation and the Israel-Iran conflict
Sam Hawley: A week since Israel began the conflict with Iran, there's been no great shock to the global economy. But a further escalation in the conflict could see crude oil and petrol prices surge, leading to nations, including Australia, having to deal with rising inflation once again. Today, the ABC's finance expert, Alan Kohler, on what that would mean for us and why, for now at least, we shouldn't be too worried. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Alan, when wars break out, we know it can have a huge impact on the global economy and on the Australian economy, on us. We saw that, of course, most recently when Russia invaded Ukraine, didn't we? Alan Kohler: We did. There tends to be two sorts of impact. One is short-term, one is longer-term. So the short-term impact tends to be negative, in the sense that the oil price goes up. So when Russia invaded Ukraine, the oil price jumped 30%. News report: With war in Europe continuing and some oil producers unwilling to increase production levels amid global demand, there's no relief in sight for customers. News report: Petrol prices have gone up and up and up. At the end of February, they hit an eight-year high of around $1.82 a litre. In the last two weeks, bowsers have hovered around $2.20. Alan Kohler: But within eight weeks, the oil price was back at its pre-invasion level, and that's because the impact longer-term is to weaken the global economy, to reduce demand. And so there tends to be kind of this two-part for all of these kind of things. Sam Hawley: Alright, well, let's unpack then what we could see now this Israel and Iran conflict is underway. And, of course, there's a prospect that it could escalate. So let's start with the price of oil. What are we seeing so far? Alan Kohler: So, so far, we saw when Israel attacked Iran on Friday, the oil price jumped 10 or 11% immediately. News report: Escalating attacks between Israel and Iran prompt new fears of a global energy crisis and recession. News report: Crude oil prices spiked by more than 10% as the escalation of the Middle East tension threatened supply. Benchmark Brent crude prices climbed above 76 US dollars a barrel to the highest level since February this year. Alan Kohler: And then it started to fall and went a lot of the way back to where it had been. That was on Monday and Tuesday. And then, since then, as Donald Trump has increased his bellicose rhetoric and started talking about possibly attacking Iran himself, that is to say America, getting involved, the oil prices started to rise, not sharply, but steadily. And it's close to being back to where it was on Friday. So it got to 76 dollars a barrel on Friday and now it's back to 73, 74 dollars a barrel. But again, it's not what you'd say some sort of big dramatic impact so far. And I think part of the reason for that is that the expectation is that global oil supplies will exceed demand this year. The International Energy Agency put out a report on Tuesday in which it forecast demand and supply this year for oil and it's forecasting an excess of supply over demand. And the other factor is that Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil a day and the expectation would be that even if that was completely knocked out, the other suppliers, in particular the UAE, Saudi Arabia and others, could easily cover that loss and probably would. So there's no kind of panic going on, even at the prospect that Iran is completely removed as a supplier of oil. Sam Hawley: Yeah, alright. But just a reminder, of course, the price of oil matters to us because it matters to the cost of petrol. Alan Kohler: Oh, well, look, I think the expectation would be that what happened on Friday would put about 12 cents per litre on the bowser price of petrol. At the moment, we're looking at an extra 8 or 9 cents per litre. Sam Hawley: Well, Alan, Jim Chalmers, the Treasurer, he says he's being briefed daily about the consequences of this conflict on the economy. Jim Chalmers, Treasurer: Big risk here is obviously oil prices. We saw a big spike on Friday in the price of oil. That has implications for Australians at the petrol bowser. And there's a lot of concern about what it might mean, not just for inflation, as important as that is, but also global growth. Sam Hawley: A week into this new conflict between Israel and Iran, there hasn't been a huge shock, of course, for our economy yet or a huge shock for oil prices. But there is so much uncertainty, isn't there, Alan? And there is a number of factors that go into that. Let's start by discussing the Straits of Hormuz. What happens there is really important, isn't it? Just explain that. Alan Kohler: Well, it's the narrowest part of the Persian Gulf between Iran and Oman. And it's theoretically possible for Iran to block it by bombing ships that go through it. And I think it's fair to say that ships are starting to avoid it already. They're certainly avoiding the Red Sea, but because of Yemen, what the Yemenis are doing. But yes, look, there's 25% of the world's seaborne oil goes through the Straits of Hormuz. So, yeah, that'll be a big deal if they block that, if they're able to. I mean, there's a bit of a question as to whether they can actually do it. And I think it's fair to say that it's not entirely in their hands. I mean, they could try, but then both America and Israel would probably see to it that they can't. Sam Hawley: Yeah. Alright. Well, Iran is positioned on the northern side of the Straits. There is a slight concern, isn't there, that that could actually happen. That would have a huge impact, wouldn't it, if that did happen? Alan Kohler: Oh, yeah, sure. Sam Hawley: And there's a lot of unknowns at the moment, but that would have a huge impact on the price of oil. Alan Kohler: Potentially would, yeah. If the Straits of Hormuz were successfully blocked by Iran, that would have a big impact on the oil market. The oil price would spike, and the global economy would suffer as a result. And so would ours. Sam Hawley: Well, another factor, Alan, that we should watch out for is if Israel targets Iran's Kharg Island. Tell me about that. Alan Kohler: It's where Iran produces its oil. I think about 90% of its oil comes from Kharg Island, and, you know, it's vulnerable. It's kind of an island off Iran in the Persian Gulf, and it could be destroyed, I think. It's fair to say. Sam Hawley: Yeah, and a lot of that oil goes to China, I think. Alan Kohler: That's right. In fact, if not all of it, certainly most of it goes to China because of the sanctions that were imposed by Western countries on Iran. So, look, I think the expectation is that Israel would look to destroy Kharg Island if it was trying to bring about a regime change in Iran, because the feeling is that if Iran went broke, then the regime would tend to possibly be overthrown because there would be no money for anybody. And so that's certainly a possibility that they'll do that. They seem to be more interested in bombing, you know, the uranium enrichment sites than that at this stage. Sam Hawley: Mm. Alright, well, the impact on our economy does all sort of hinge on the cost of oil. As you say, it's pretty stable at the moment. It's been going up and down a bit. But just explain to me so we understand this. When we pay more for oil and then petrol, that can really hurt us in so many ways, can't it? When the cost of petrol goes up, that means the cost of lots of other things goes up too. Alan Kohler: Well, of course, that's right. We haven't got that many electric cars and electric trucks yet. We're still filling the cars up with petrol mostly and it obviously acts like a tax increase and, you know, obviously increases the price of deliveries and everything. So fuel tends to go through the entire economy when the price goes up. And so it acts like interest rates in a way. A rise in interest rates slows the economy because it affects so many people. The majority of people have a mortgage and that therefore affects them and also the businesses. So it's a fuel increase, price increase, acts a bit like an interest rate increase. Sam Hawley: Yeah, and that all leads to rising inflation, obviously, which the Reserve Bank has just brought under control. Alan Kohler: That's right. And so that's the fear is that if inflation rises as a result of rising fuel costs, then the interest rate cuts that are currently expected will not arrive. And so it's a sort of a double whammy, really. You get the higher petrol price and then you get less of a rate cut or no rate cut maybe. Sam Hawley: Can we look ahead any further at this point or is it just completely unknown what the Reserve Bank would have to do at this point? Looking right now, are we still going to get those two or three extra rate cuts? Alan Kohler: Well, look, in terms of the futures market, last Thursday, the futures market expectation for a rate cut in July was 97%, so virtually a certain 100%. And on Monday, it came down to 80%. So still very likely the rate cut in July, according to the futures market, but less likely than it was. And I think that's fair enough. I mean, my expectation is that there won't be a cut in July because I think the Reserve Bank has made it pretty clear they're not that keen on back-to-back cuts sort of in a row. And that means that there wouldn't be one in July, but there would be one in August and then not one in September and then one in November. I think it's still reasonable to expect two more rate cuts this year from the Reserve Bank, but obviously, you know, that depends on what happens from here. But as things stand with the petrol price where it is, I think that you can still expect rate cuts. But as I said, a petrol price increase acts like a rate hike in a way, and so that would sort of tend to cut it out. I mean, it's kind of a bit complicated in the sense that, yes, a petrol price increase increases inflation and therefore makes it less likely that the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates, but it also tends to slow the economy, which is what the Reserve Bank is trying to fight against. So the Reserve Bank is cutting interest rates because it wants to boost the economy. But if petrol prices go up and it acts like a rate hike, then in order to counteract that, the Reserve Bank might be inclined to cut interest rates more to try to counteract the impact of the petrol price increase. So it depends on how it actually unfolds and what actually does happen to inflation rather than, you know, the sort of theories about it. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, no need by the sound of it for the Reserve Bank to panic just yet. But if this becomes an extended conflict, if other nations, including, of course, the United States, gets involved, I guess that could change the whole scenario. Alan Kohler: Look, it could. I think the markets are pretty calm at the moment because the expectation is that it'll all be confined to Iran and that if the worst happens and Iran is removed as a producer of oil, then everyone can handle that. It'll be okay. The only problem would be if it really did expand to include other big oil producers, which is not out of the question but very, very unlikely. You know, Iran has threatened in the past and has used its proxies in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabian production facilities. So it's not completely out of the question that Iran would have a go at that. But, you know, I think they're on the back foot at the moment. There's no doubt about it. I mean, they're in trouble, Iran. And I don't think that there's any expectation, really, that they're going to be in any kind of position to attack anyone else. So, you know, I think that it doesn't look that likely that it's going to spread and become a major conflict where Iran attacks someone else. I just don't... That doesn't look like it's at all likely. Sam Hawley: Alan Kohler is ABC TV's finance expert. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead and Sam Dunn. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
Daily Mail
10-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
ABC host Alan Kohler warns government will be forced to introduce another tax in Australia
The ABC's finance commentator Alan Kohler has warned governments may be forced to introduce a new tax on artificial intelligence to cope with robots replacing people in the workplace. AI, designed to replace human labour and boost company profits, threatens to erode the federal government's biggest source of revenue, personal income taxes, Kohler warned. This would see the government have less money to spend on essential services like welfare, transport infrastructure and defence. Personal income taxes make up a majority of federal government revenue and Treasury is expecting to be even more reliant on this revenue source into the late 2020s, even as technology replaces jobs. To solve this problem, Kohler has suggested a new tax on AI. 'While the taxes on human labour are increasing, the spending on artificial intelligence designed to replace human labour is going through the roof and so are the profits,' he said. 'And why are the companies going for AI? Well, largely to replace staff.' Geopolitical political uncertainty and an ageing population also gives the government less scope to cut spending to cope with a future plunge in revenue from personal income taxes - leaving a tax on AI as the only option. 'Good luck cutting spending to match the decline in personal income tax revenue as artificial intelligence starts replacing taxpaying human workers, governments will either have to tax the profits from robots and AI or tax wealth,' he said. The federal government is expecting to collect $349.7billion from income taxes in 2025-26, which would make up 51.7 per cent of the Commonwealth's $676.1billion in revenue. By the 2028-29 financial year, Treasury is expecting personal income taxes to make up 54 per cent of revenue as receipts from individuals soared to $420.3billion from a total collection pool of $778.3billion. The March Budget papers expected this to occur even as technology giants like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and OpenAI spent even more on artificial intelligence large language models. Global artificial intelligence investment hit $200billion in 2024 and Forbes is expecting it to approach $400billion this year, in Australian dollar terms. Kohler noted the federal government was instead focused on applying a 15 per cent tax on unrealised gains on superannuation balances of more than $3million, without indexing it for inflation. He slammed the idea of taxing retirement savings without indexing it for inflation, after AMP forecast the tax would affect the average, 22-year-old worker in four decades time. 'So, it's not just a wealth tax, it also brings bracket creep to super,' he said. 'And it may not be the last tax on wealth either.' With AI threatening to replace jobs, increasing taxes on the highest 0.5 per cent of superannuation balances may do little to compensate for the collapse in personal income tax revenue. 'And the tax on high super balances is just a toe in that water,' he said. The chief executives of the Commonwealth Bank' and Telsta - Matt Comyn and Vicki Brady - told last week's Australian Financial Review AI Summit that artificial intelligence was advancing at a faster pace than many people anticipated. 'Everyone talks about Moore's law, that computer power doubles every two years. The capability of these agents is doubling every seven months,' Ms Brady said. Mr Comyn predicted AI would take away customer service jobs in banking. 'Whereas in other areas … around customer service, where there is greater automation, I think some of those roles will be challenged,' he said. White collar jobs are most at risk of being replaced by AI with the likes of tax and payroll accountants and banking staff in danger, a Mandala Partners report predicted in 2023. A tax on AI could potentially be used to fund a universal basic income, where everyone gets a guaranteed government payment without a means test. Basic Income Australia pitched this idea to a Senate committee on adopting artificial intelligence, but the inquiry last year declined to recommend that policy.
