Latest news with #AlbertaIndependence
CTV News
3 days ago
- Politics
- CTV News
Potential Alberta separation referendum question referred to judge for approval
An Alberta flag flaps in the breeze with Mt. Kidd in the background at the site of the G7 Leaders meeting in Kananaskis, Alta., Monday, June 2, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh EDMONTON — A potential referendum question on Alberta separating from Canada has been referred to a judge for confirmation that the question doesn't violate the Constitution. The proposed question seeks a yes or no answer to: 'Do you agree that the Province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?' Alberta's chief electoral officer Gordon McClure, in a news release Monday, said provincial laws require potential referendum questions to respect more than 30 sections of the Constitution, including the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. McClure's release doesn't say which, if any, specific sections he's unsure about and his office didn't immediately respond to questions asking for details. The potential referendum question was submitted to the electoral officer earlier this month by Mitch Sylvestre, an executive with the Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group that has been touring the province promoting independence. Sylvestre, who didn't immediately respond to an interview request Monday, has said he thinks interest among Albertans in holding a separation referendum increases with every speaking event his group organizes. 'The more people that hear what the message is, the more people that will be in favour,' he said in an interview last month. The Alberta Prosperity Project said on social media that McClure's decision was a 'delay tactic' and that the group would respond in court if need be. The electoral officer's release says the Court of King's Bench will schedule a proceeding for the matter and that Sylvestre and the provincial justice minister have been notified of his decision to refer the question to a judge. If his question is approved, Sylvestre and the Alberta Prosperity Project would need to collect 177,000 signatures in four months to put the question of Alberta separation on a ballot. In June, the chief electoral officer approved a competing question that seeks to have Alberta make it official policy that the province will never separate from Canada. That petition, put forward by former Alberta Progressive Conservative deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, was approved before new provincial rules took effect that lowered the threshold for citizen-initiated referendums to get on ballots. Lukaszuk's proposal also differs in that it seeks a referendum on a proposed policy — rather than a potential constitutional referendum like Sylvestre's proposal — and he'll need to collect nearly 300,000 signatures in 90 days. The former deputy premier confirmed Monday that signature collection efforts for his proposed policy referendum were expected to begin in the coming days. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 28, 2025 Jack Farrell, The Canadian Press
CBC
4 days ago
- Politics
- CBC
Constitutionality of potential Alberta separation referendum question put to judge
A potential referendum question on Alberta separating from Canada has been referred to a judge for confirmation that the question doesn't violate the Constitution. The proposed question seeks a yes or no answer to whether people agree with Alberta becoming a sovereign country and ceasing to be a province in Canada. Alberta's chief electoral officer Gordon McClure said in a news release Monday that provincial laws require potential referendum questions to respect more than 30 sections of the Constitution, including the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The potential referendum question was submitted to the electoral officer earlier this month by Mitch Sylvestre, an executive with the Alberta Prosperity Project who has been touring the province promoting independence. If approved, Sylvestre would need to collect 177,000 signatures in four months to put the question of Alberta separation on a ballot. In June, Alberta's electoral officer approved a competing question that seeks to have Alberta make it official policy that the province will never separate from Canada.
CTV News
04-07-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
Alberta's new referendum rules officially take effect
The number of signatures needed for citizens to initiate a province-wide referendum is dropping. Hannah Lepine reports. Beginning Friday, the number of signatures needed for citizens to initiate a province-wide referendum is dropping, including on separation. The new threshold is 177,000 signatures collected within four months. People who want to stay in Canada and those who want Alberta to leave have already started applying for petitions. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group promoting independence, plans to launch one under the new rules. At the same time, Thomas Lukaszuk, former progressive conservative deputy premier, is working to stop that effort. He argues separation would threaten the Canadian, as well as the Alberta economy, the treaty rights for First Nations, and would have many other negative consequences. On Monday, Elections Alberta approved Lukaszuk's application to undertake a petition for the province to declare its official policy is to remain within Canada. Since Lukaszuk applied before the new rules took effect, he'll need to collect 600,000 signatures, but he said he's confident that enough Albertans would sign their name. Smith's government introduced Bill 54 quickly after Carney's election win, but said it would have been proposed regardless of the outcome. Smith has said she wants Alberta to stay in Canada and is blaming federal policies for the separatist sentiment. Citizen initiative petitions can be found on the Elections Alberta website.
CBC
04-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation
The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation. The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada. "Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year. Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. "There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province. "Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said. Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. "There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said. Conservative estimates The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel. "There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said. Rath said the plan uses "extremely conservative estimates" to make those assumptions, resulting in numbers reflecting the least positive outcome. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young notes that the plan does take into account the fluctuation in oil prices. "They acknowledge that demand for oil will peak relatively soon and then decline," she said, demonstrating they are thinking about potential swings in the economy. Still, Rath said they believe there is no sign demand for oil and gas will shift. "It's kind of like Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," he said, referencing comments the former U.S. vice president made several years ago about climate change. "Every five years somebody says that the end of the earth is coming and nobody has yet to come up with an economic alternative to oil and gas." Young said the plan still lacks "robust" analysis from economists — and it leaves several questions about the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered. "Have they taken into account the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into account the many people who would pack their bags and leave the province and not want to be part of Alberta?" Pension payments and currency concerns Another area of uncertainty is the plan to shift to an Alberta Pension Plan — like the one the United Conservative government has proposed. Using data from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the plan says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its conservative estimates, the plan assumes the province would receive $167 billion in 2026. Rath also said an independent Alberta would reduce pension payments but double pension payouts. But St-Arnaud said this is based on the assumption that Albertans are generally richer and can contribute more, but also that they are younger and will use less of the money. "But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," he said. "Yes, Alberta is still younger than the rest of Canada, but that gap is narrowing quite rapidly." He also said one key mistake the plan makes in its revenue estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with overall fiscal revenue. "That amount of revenues shouldn't be included in fiscal revenues because that's the way pension funds work, and that's the way the CPP works at a federal level," he said. "It's an independent entity." Rath said Alberta would also adopt the U.S. dollar, before eventually shifting to an Alberta-specific currency. Young said the potential effect this could have is not clear. "What would it mean to adopt the American dollar all of a sudden, right? What would that do to people's personal finances?" she said. Opposition petition 'a bad joke' At the same press conference Thursday, Rath addressed questions about a competing petition plan that would call for Alberta to stay in Canada. "It's a bad joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously." The Forever Canada petition, led by former Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its own referendum question about staying in Alberta. Rath said this will not disrupt his group's plans to submit a question on separation because theirs is a constitutional challenge, not a policy one.
CBC
30-06-2025
- Politics
- CBC
New Alberta referendum rules looming as calls for separation met with opposition petition
As Canada prepares Tuesday to blow out 158 birthday candles, Alberta plans three days later to formalize rules making it easier to have an independence celebration of its own. Beginning Friday, Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative government is officially lowering the required threshold for citizens to initiate a provincewide referendum, including on separation. Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group touring Alberta promoting independence, said he plans to apply to Elections Alberta that same day to start a petition under the new rules. The group aims to gather 177,000 signatures within 120 days to put the question on a ballot to voters: Do you agree the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada? "I would not be surprised if that referendum was held right now that we could possibly even win it," Sylvestre told The Canadian Press. He said many Albertans are skeptical Prime Minister Mark Carney will be able to restore trust after federal policies for years siphoned Alberta's resource riches elsewhere. WATCH | Why Alberta separation is seen as a 'real possibility': Why Alberta separation is seen as a 'real possibility' 2 months ago Duration 2:49 While most Albertans don't want to separate, new polling suggests a majority in the province think it could happen. CBC Calgary's Rob Brown explains the Research Co. findings. The online survey was conducted with 1,201 voters between April 27 and 29, 2025. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. At the same time, Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Progressive Conservative deputy premier in Alberta, is working to thwart that separatist effort. Lukaszuk, now out of politics, argues that Alberta's rules do not allow for two competing petitions on the same issue. "There's only one petition at a time, so mine precludes theirs," he said. Lukaszuk has already applied to start a petition under the existing law, which would require 600,000 signatures. If his application to Elections Alberta is approved, he's confident that enough Albertans would sign their name to have the provincial government declare its official policy is to remain within Canada. Sylvestre said he will be submitting papers for the second time on Friday. He said he believes Lukaszuk's petition effort might delay the push for Alberta independence but believes it will fail to gather so many signatures within the old threshold of 90 days. Recent polls have suggested that support for separatism in Alberta hasn't reached majority territory. But, Sylvestre said, interest in holding an independence referendum is growing with each speaking event they organize. "The more people that hear what the message is, the more people that will be in favour," he said. WATCH | What could Alberta separation mean for First Nations in the province? What could Alberta separation mean for First Nations in the province? 1 month ago Duration 7:52 Chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with Chief Tony Alexis of the Alexis Nakota Sioux Nation about how Alberta separation threats violate First Nations treaty rights and how the government is not going far enough to protect those communities. Elections Alberta has said each application is evaluated in the order received but cannot comment on the applications submitted so far. Legal experts say a vote to sever ties with Canada would toss the country into uncharted waters, potentially prompting complex negotiations among governments and First Nations. Smith's government introduced the bill quickly after Carney's election victory earlier this year but said it would have been proposed regardless of the outcome. In defending her legislation, Smith said the growing number of Albertans unhappy with Confederation are right to be frustrated, and she wants to see more opportunities for direct democracy. She has long said she wants her province to be sovereign within a united Canada. That's a phrase Lukaszuk calls meaningless. "That's like me saying, 'I am single within the confines of my marriage,"' he said. Asked earlier this week what her government could do to quell separatist aspirations, Smith said it was Ottawa's responsibility to reverse policies she said stifle energy production and investment in Alberta. In recent months, she has called for Carney to abolish several federal policies and programs, including a proposed greenhouse gas emissions cap, net-zero electricity grid regulations and the West Coast tanker ban. "This is really in Ottawa's hands," Smith said Thursday. While Lukaszuk said Smith is entitled to negotiate with the federal government, she shouldn't use the threat of secession as leverage.
