Latest news with #AlexHodes
Gulf Business
13 hours ago
- Business
- Gulf Business
Oil prices rise on strong demand signals ahead of OPEC+ decision
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of positive demand indicators, while also treading cautiously ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the gro up 's August output policy. Brent crude LCOc1 settled up 37 cents, or 0.6 per cent, at $67.11 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 settled 34 cents higher, or up around 0.5 per cent, at $65.45 a barrel. The gains were likely due to s up portive data from a private-sector survey in China, which showed factory activity oil brokerage Liquidity Energy. Expectations that Saudi Arabia will raise its August crude oil prices for buyers in Asia to a oil were also s up porting the notion of robust demand , Rothenberg said. Oil 's gains were kept in check by expectations that the OPEC+ gro up will boost its August crude oil output by an amount similar to the outsized hikes agreed in May, June, and July. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the gro up plans to 'All eyes will be on OPEC+'s decision over the weekend, when the gro up is expected to add another 411,000 bpd of production in an effort to gain more market share, primarily over the US shale producers,' StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes told clients. Besides gaining market share from US shale producers, which pumped oil at a up has also been trying to punish overproducing members. OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, one of the world's 10 largest oil producers, raised oil production last month to match an Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC+ gro up , raised its June crude oil exports to the fastest rate in a year, data from Kpler showed. 'These exports are flooding out even faster than the OPEC+ deal implies during the summer, when peak domestic demand typically keeps oil s up plies closer to home,' Hodes said. In the US, crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week, according to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET. API/S Trump and tariffs Investors are also watching trade negotiations ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariff deadline of July 9. Trump on Tuesday said he is not thinking of extending the deadline. A trade deal with India was Bessent also warned countries could be notified of The European Union wants immediate
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil prices slip on easing Middle East risks
HOUSTON: Oil prices slipped on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risk alongside a possible OPEC+ output increase in August and uncertainty over the global demand outlook. Brent crude futures edged down by 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.58 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. EDT (1501 GMT), ahead of the August contract's expiry later on Monday. The more active September contract was down 34 cents at $66.46. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 62 cents, or 1%, at $64.90 a barrel. The Brent and WTI benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but are set for a second consecutive monthly gain of 5.8% and 6.8% respectively. A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above $80 a barrel before sliding back to $67. 'Supply increases and a bearish demand outlook by data reporting agencies will likely start to drive oil markets onceagain after tensions appear to have cooled between Iran and Israel,' StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Monday. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August after similar increases for May, June and July. Oil steadies after report of planned OPEC+ Aug output hike 'I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness,' said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. ' soon we will enter the demand shoulder season where OPEC+ increases will become much more visible, and harder to ignore.' The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6. Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, with lower than expected production increases while exports from OPEC+ countries have remained stable, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed. Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2% this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz, showed. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May's $66.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51, above last month's $63.35 estimate.
CNA
2 days ago
- Business
- CNA
Oil prices slip on easing Middle East risks
HOUSTON :Oil prices slipped on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risk alongside a possible OPEC+ output increase in August and uncertainty over the global demand outlook. Brent crude futures edged down by 19 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $67.58 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. EDT (1501 GMT), ahead of the August contract's expiry later on Monday. The more active September contract was down 34 cents at $66.46. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 62 cents, or 1 per cent, at $64.90 a barrel. The Brent and WTI benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but are set for a second consecutive monthly gain of 5.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively. A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above $80 a barrel before sliding back to $67. "Supply increases and a bearish demand outlook by data reporting agencies will likely start to drive oil markets once again after tensions appear to have cooled between Iran and Israel," StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Monday. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August after similar increases for May, June and July. "I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "[...] soon we will enter the demand shoulder season where OPEC+ increases will become much more visible, and harder to ignore." The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6. Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, with lower than expected production increases while exports from OPEC+ countries have remained stable, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed. Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2 per cent this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz, showed. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May's $66.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51, above last month's $63.35 estimate.
Express Tribune
14-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Diesel most exposed to Mideast conflict
Listen to article US ultra-low sulphur diesel futures hit the highest level since February, outpacing gains in oil and gasoline as analysts warned that diesel supply is the most exposed to the conflict in the Middle East. Israel on Friday launched the biggest-ever direct attack on Iran and said the huge wave of airstrikes was only the start of its campaign. Iran has since launched retaliatory strikes, with explosions heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Crude oil futures jumped about 7% as analysts worried Iran's response could include a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies traverses. Diesel futures jumped even more, surging about 8% for their biggest single-day gains since April 2022. Diesel outperformed because the conflict's biggest impact is expected to be on the supply of medium heavy-sour crude grades, which are better suited for production of distillate fuels, StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said. The Middle East is also a major export hub for distillate fuels like diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, said Matias Togni, analyst at oil market insights firm Next Barrel. The conflict could impact liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows within the region and lead to higher diesel and fuel oil consumption for power generation, with Egypt already showing signs of such a switch, Togni said. Combined diesel, gasoil and jet fuel exports from the Middle East averaged 1.76 million barrels per day in May, close to 2% of total world oil consumption, according to Kpler data. Retail spike to follow Existing inventories for diesel are already low, adding to concerns that the conflict will lower Middle East diesel exports and global production, said StoneX's Hodes. US inventories of diesel and heating oil stood at 108.9 million barrels in the week ended June 6, about 15% below the past five years' average, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Combined with the surge in crude oil prices, those tight inventories are likely to cause a 10-to-30-cent a gallon surge in retail diesel prices in the US over the next two weeks, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said. By contrast, US gasoline stocks were slightly above the five-year average at 214.7 million barrels, the EIA data showed. GasBuddy is estimating a five-to-15-cent per gallon jump in US gasoline prices over the coming weeks. US gasoline futures rose 8.47 cents to settle at $2.2276 a gallon on Friday, while ULSD futures rose 17 cents to settle at $2.3587 a gallon. Traders pile into $80 oil bets Traders on Friday exchanged the most $80 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil call options since January, expecting more upside to prices after Israeli airstrikes on Iran sparked fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Call options grant the holder a right to buy futures contract at the pre-set price and date and a rise in volumes can help gauge market sentiment. About 33,411 contracts of August-2025 $80 call options for WTI crude oil were traded on Friday on a total trading volume of 681,000 contracts, marking the highest volume for these options this year, according to CME Group data The last time trading was this high for $80 call contracts was on January 10, with 17,030 February-2025 $80 call options traded on a total trading volume of 301,866 contracts. Oil prices jumped on Friday and settled 7% higher as Israel and Iran launched airstrikes, feeding investor worries that the combat could widely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. US WTI crude finished at $72.98 a barrel, up $4.94, or 7.62%. During the session, the WTI jumped over 14% to its highest since January 21 at $77.62.
Business Recorder
13-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil prices drop as traders gauge ME tensions
NEW YORK: Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, as traders assessed whether the previous day's jump to the highest prices in more than two months had adequately priced in risks for crude oil supply from mounting tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures were down 34 cents, or 0.5%, at $69.43 a barrel at 11:32 a.m. ET (1532 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.97 a barrel. On Wednesday, the US decided to move personnel out of the Middle East, and both benchmarks surged more than 4% to their highest since early April. The surge put the market in overbought territory based on several technical indicators, so it was likely due for a brief correction, StoneX Energy analyst Alex Hodes said. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said he was growing less confident that Tehran would agree to stop enriching uranium, a key demand in US talks with Iran over its nuclear program. Trump has previously threatened to strike Iran if the talks fail. Tehran, which asserts its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes, has said it would retaliate against strikes by hitting US bases in the region. Iran will not abandon its right to uranium enrichment, a senior Iranian official said on Thursday.
