Latest news with #AlexVatanka
The National
25-06-2025
- Politics
- The National
What will Trump do next in the Middle East?
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran marks a dramatic culmination of events that have urgently reshaped the geopolitics of the Middle East, leaving many wondering what US President Donald Trump 's next moves might be in the region. His first order of business will be to shore up the fragile truce, which came after the US joined Israel in bombing Iran by striking three nuclear sites at the weekend. Israel also wiped out many of Iran's air defences and hit its senior commanders and officers. Mr Trump on Wednesday said the US and Iran would hold talks next week, raising hopes for a durable peace between Israel and Iran, two rivals that have spent decades waging a rhetorical war that frequently saw Iran strike at Israeli or western interests through an array of proxy groups. 'We may sign an agreement, I don't know,' Mr Trump said at a Nato summit in The Hague. 'The way I look at it, they fought, the war is done." Iran, however, insists it will retain its nuclear programme and appears set to halt co-operation with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, highlighted the unpredictability of Iran's actions and how these might shape the Trump administration's Middle East policies. He said Mr Trump has made a strategic bet that military force will shock the Iranians and force them into making the concessions he wants. "He might be right, he might be wrong. Last time he took a strategic bet like this, in 2018 when he pulled out of the [2015 nuclear deal ], his gamble didn't work out, and Iran enriched more and more. In fact, it started acting [more aggressively] in the region," Mr Vatanka told The National. Before this month's war between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration had been working on a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The Israel-Iran ceasefire will now help that deal come to fruition and secure the release of hostages in Gaza, Mr Trump said on Wednesday, amid reports that talks had picked up pace in Egypt. "It helped a little and showed a lot of power … we were very close to making a deal in Gaza … I think this helped, yes," he said. Iran's nuclear capabilities and its "malign activities", including the funding of proxy groups, have dominated foreign policy conversations and think tank research in Washington for decades. The apparent end of Iran's nuclear programme and the erosion of groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas leaves an opening for the US to focus more on what it wants from the Middle East, namely investment and trade deals and an expansion of the Abraham Accords, as shown by the US President's trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE last month. "If Trump can do that, then you can see a region emerging where the focus is on economic development integration, where non-state actors backed by Iran are sidelined," Mr Vatanka said. He said Arab states could gain more leeway to try to persuade the transactional Mr Trump to begin to support a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some Iran watchers have warned that Tehran is unlikely to move quietly into peaceful coexistence with Israel and is going to accelerate its nuclear programme to develop a bomb. "But racing to the bomb is not so simple," noted David Makovsky, director of the Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "It presupposes that they have the resources and that the world is so distracted that they will let them do that. And I don't see that at this time." Mr Makovsky told The National that some estimates put the total cost of Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions against the regime at about $500 billion. "Not a good investment for the Iranian taxpayer," he said. Experts predict some sort of shift within Iran's ruling power structure, although not necessarily regime change. After the US strikes, Mr Trump on Sunday asked "why wouldn't there be a regime change" in Iran, but on Tuesday he said he opposed such an outcome as it would invite chaos. Enia Krivine, who runs the Foundation for Defence of Democracies' Israel Programme, said Israel and Mr Trump are going to focus on normalisation, in which Arab and other Muslim-majority countries will begin to establish ties with Israel. She also predicted that Mr Trump would use the US air strikes in Iran to push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza. "There's going to be a lot of pressure on Israel to come to some sort of conclusion in Gaza that everyone can live with," Ms Krivine told The National. "There's probably going to be some trade-off for Trump's operation over Iran. He's a very transactional president, for better or worse."
Mint
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Here's how cyberwarfare takes centre stage in escalating Iran-Israel conflict, details report
As the war between Iran and Israel rages on with deadly missile exchanges and airstrikes, a quieter but equally volatile battleground has emerged in cyberspace, where both nations are deploying their digital arsenals in increasingly aggressive campaigns. What began as shadowy online skirmishes has now escalated into a full-fledged cyberwar, prompting warnings from security officials that the digital conflict may soon entangle the United States and its critical infrastructure, reported Politico. According to the publication, following recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, cyber experts and government agencies are bracing for retaliatory attacks that could target American energy grids, water systems, and essential services. The US Department of Homeland Security's National Terrorism Advisory System has flagged a heightened threat environment, citing the possibility of low-level intrusions from pro-Iranian hacktivists and more sophisticated operations directed by Tehran's cyber units. 'Cyber is one of the tools of Iran's asymmetric warfare,' said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, the media outlet reported. 'They may not match Israel or the US in capability, but Iran has repeatedly used cyber tools to project power beyond its borders.' The US Cyber Command is reportedly assisting military operations, though details of its involvement remain classified. Meanwhile, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and former Director Jen Easterly have urged American firms to heighten their cyber defences, warning that Iranian groups may be preparing for attacks on civilian infrastructure akin to those seen in previous confrontations. Israel and Iran, both considered cyber powerhouses in their own right, have a long history of digital hostilities. In the wake of the October 2023 Hamas assault on Israel, the cyber dimension of the conflict took on a sharper edge. Iranian hackers breached an Israeli hospital last year, stealing sensitive patient data. In retaliation, Israeli operatives disrupted petrol distribution across Iran by hacking into its national fuel infrastructure. Last week, Israeli-linked group Predatory Sparrow claimed responsibility for cyberattacks on Iran's Bank Sepah and Nobitex, the country's largest cryptocurrency exchange. The group allegedly drained around $90 million and leaked source code files online. These incidents were accompanied by digital assaults on Iranian state media, some of which briefly broadcast anti-government messages before the Iranian regime initiated a nationwide internet shutdown that, as of Sunday, remained largely in effect. In response, Iranian officials have taken drastic measures, ordering top leaders to cease using internet-connected and mobile devices to mitigate further Israeli incursions. The government's paranoia is not unfounded, previous cyberattacks have targeted communication systems used by Hezbollah, Iran's Lebanon-based proxy, reportedly causing widespread damage and injuries. The media report added that despite Iran's resilience and retaliatory strikes, experts widely agree that Israel maintains a technological edge. 'The Iranians are improving, but they're not yet operating at the level of the Israelis or Americans,' said Vatanka. 'Cyber operations from Iran often aim to instil fear, sow confusion, and degrade morale rather than cause direct physical damage,' said John Hultquist, chief analyst at Google's Threat Intelligence Group. 'They're particularly focused on cyber espionage, tracking movement, intercepting communication, and identifying targets.'
CNA
23-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
CNA938 Rewind - US enters the Israel-Iran war
CNA938 Rewind Iran has struck Israel in retaliation for the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites in what's seen as America's biggest foreign policy gamble. President Donald Trump says Tehran must now end its fight with Israel or face a force far greater than what was witnessed. Andrea Heng and Susan Ng assess the latest developments with Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute. CNA938 Rewind - US enters the Israel-Iran war Iran has struck Israel in retaliation for the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites in what's seen as America's biggest foreign policy gamble. President Donald Trump says Tehran must now end its fight with Israel or face a force far greater than what was witnessed. Andrea Heng and Susan Ng assess the latest developments with Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute. 16 mins CNA938 Rewind - Stock take today: US strikes on Iran, crude oil forecast On the daily markets analysis on Open For Business, Andrea Heng and Susan Ng speak with Heng Koon How, Head of Markets Strategy, Global Economics and Markets Research, UOB. 12 mins CNA938 Rewind - Dark cloud over Wilmar as alleged corruption case is revisited Singapore Agribusiness giant Wilmar International is back in the spotlight after Indonesian prosecutors appeal the previous acquittal over alleged misconduct in obtaining palm oil export permits. Andrea Heng and Susan Ng assess the reverberations this will have on the company with Aaron Choo, Senior Assistant Director, Special Projects and Sustainability, Singapore Institute of International Affairs. 10 mins CNA938 Rewind - A Letter to Myself: Jolene Tham carries family curry puff business forward with grit and gratitude Jolene Tham, 25, is the third-generation owner of Rolina Traditional Hainanese Curry Puffs, located at Tanjong Pagar Market and Food Centre. She took over the family business in 2023, under difficult circumstances — soon after her father, the second-generation owner, was diagnosed with late-stage cancer. Jolene and her husband, Kwan Wei Lun, share how they had to quickly adapted to the heavy demands of the hawker trade and why they're grateful for having each other as they take the family business forward. 37 mins
Politico
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Bank hacks, internet shutdowns and crypto heists: Here's how the war between Israel and Iran is playing out in cyberspace
The war between Iran and Israel has already expanded from the battlefield into cyberspace. The conflict between the two Middle East adversaries has so far largely played out in public view, with hundreds of missiles and drones causing mass casualties across major cities. But Iran and Israel have also been launching cyber attacks against one another from the shadows — which officials are now warning may soon spill over onto U.S. targets. Overnight strikes by the U.S. against Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened the threat environment, and Iran could retaliate by hacking into U.S. electrical grids, water plants, and other critical sectors. 'Cyber is one of the tools of Iran's asymmetric warfare,' said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. The National Terrorism Advisory System warned Sunday of a range of Iranian threats to the U.S., including attacks on 'poorly secured U.S. networks and Internet-connected devices.' 'Low-level cyber attacks against U.S. networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against U.S. networks.' Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine told reporters on Sunday that U.S. Cyber Command was helping support the strikes, although he did not elaborate on its involvement. A spokesperson for U.S. Cyber Command did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the main U.S. cyber defense agency, declined to comment. Critical infrastructure groups last week called on U.S. companies to proactively step up their defenses in anticipation of an attack. Former CISA Director Jen Easterly posted on LinkedIn on Sunday that U.S. critical infrastructure organizations should have their 'shields up' and be prepared for malicious cyber activity. 'While it's unclear whether its cyber capabilities were at all impacted by recent Israeli strikes, Iran has a track record of retaliatory cyber operations targeting civilian infrastructure, including: water systems; financial institutions; energy pipelines; government networks; and more,' she wrote. Both Iran and Israel are considered global cyber powers and have traded barbs online, particularly in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel. An Iranian gang claimed responsibility for hacking into an Israeli hospital and stealing patient data in 2023, and an Israeli hacking group followed by shutting down large swaths of Iran's gas stations. But Israel's cyber capabilities are widely considered more sophisticated. 'The Iranians … are good, they are emerging, but I don't think they're at the level of the Israelis or Americans,' Vatanka said. Some of the most aggressive efforts over the past week have been cyberattacks against major financial institutions in Iran and disinformation campaigns aimed at causing chaos and confusion in Israel. A pro-Israeli hacking group known as Predatory Sparrow claimed credit for a cyberattack last week on Iran's Bank Sepah, which caused widespread account issues for customers. The group also later claimed credit for draining around $90 million from Nobitex, Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, and for posting stolen Nobitex source code lists on the social media platform X. Hackers also targeted Iranian news stations. Videos circulated online appeared to show Iranian state TV broadcasting anti-regime messages last week. The Iranian government shut down the nation's internet in response to the attacks late last week, a blackout that was largely still ongoing on Sunday. 'Gaining control of the flow of information is certainly to be expected from the regime … they suspect that there is maybe an attempt to mobilize public attention,' Vatanka said. Top Iranian officials and their security teams were also advised last week to stop using internet-connected devices, in particular telecommunication devices, to protect against potential Israeli disruptions. Last year, thousands of pagers used by the Iranian proxy militant group Hezbollah exploded across Lebanon, leaving thousands injured. One reason Israel's cyberattacks may have been more effective in this round of fighting is that Israel struck Iranian facilities first, giving it more time to prepare its offensive and defensive options before Iran could retaliate. Iran and its proxy organizations are fighting back, albeit on a smaller scale. Israel's National Cyber Directorate warned Israelis abroad on Saturday not to fill out forms on malicious websites that are seeking to gather intelligence on these individuals. Gil Messing, chief of staff for Israeli cyber company Check Point Software, said Saturday just before the U.S. strikes that his company had tracked cyber and disinformation campaigns against Israel 'escalating a bit,' though no new major attacks had been reported. Messing said that there was a 'flood of disinformation' pouring onto social media last week, including messages discouraging Israelis from entering shelters during attacks and erroneous texts about gas and supply shortages. Israel's civilian cyber defense agency warned that Iran was renewing its efforts to hack into internet-connected cameras for espionage purposes. John Hultquist, chief analyst for Google Threat Intelligence Group, posted on X on Saturday shortly after the attacks that Iranian cyber forces usually use their 'cyberattack capability for psychological purposes.' 'I'm most concerned about cyber espionage against our leaders and surveillance aided by compromises in travel, hospitality, telecommunications, and other sectors where data could be used to identify and physically track persons of interest,' Hultquist wrote.
Sky News
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Sky News
From accidental to absolute leader - who is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's often reclusive Supreme Leader, surfaced this week to hit back at Donald Trump's demands for an unconditional surrender. Khamenei first came to power as Iranian president in 1981, and he was a surprise choice for Supreme Leader eight years later. But since then, with the help of the Revolutionary Guard, he has had almost complete control of Iran and its anti-Israel and anti-American foreign policy agenda. Tom Cheshire speaks to Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, about how Khamenei is viewed inside Iran and how his policies contributed to the current crisis
