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Local Germany
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Local Germany
Inside Germany: Summer heatwaves, budget changes and Bavarian sea monsters
Inside Germany is our weekly look at some of the news, talking points and gossip in Germany that you might've missed. It's published each Saturday and members can receive it directly to their inbox by going to their newsletter preferences or adding their email to the sign-up box in this article. Having made it to the other side of a monstrous heatwave, people in Germany can look forward to significantly milder weather in the coming days – including some scattered showers over the weekend and temperatures in the low to mid 20s in many places through the weekend. But of course there will be more heatwaves to come this summer, and then even more in the summers to follow. In fact, meteorologist Dominik Jung (whose forecasts often pop-up in German media) suggests the next one is just around the corner – starting from next Thursday, July 10th. So in case you missed some of our practical heat-related coverage this week, you may want to brush up on the rules around working during heatwaves , when exactly German schools close due to heat, and what to know about installing air conditioning in your home. Children play in a fountain at Munich's Karlsplatz square during the heatwave. (Photo by Michaela STACHE / AFP) Budget squabbles An interesting, and often overlooked, aspect of extreme weather events is how often they tie directly into economics, and even seemingly inconsequential budget decisions. A more obvious example was seen this week in the direct impacts of the high temperatures, including a highway buckling in the heat, rail disruptions and forest fires. Allianz Research suggested the July heatwave will cause the loss of 0.1 percent of Germany's GDP growth this year. READ ALSO: School closures to rail chaos - What happens when Germany is hit by extreme heat Advertisement But there's a more subtle connection to be found in the federal government's latest budget update. This week leaders of the conservative Christian Union parties (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) held talks on details related to their plans for tax cuts and pensions. In the end they announced that they didn't have the finances to scrap electricity taxes for German households after all. (You can read more about what changes were agreed and how they might affect you here .) An under-reported aspect of the government's decision to scrap that tax cut is its climate implications. While the black-red will government no longer cut taxes for electricity, it will stick to plans to remove a levy on gas – effectively incentivising fossil fuel energy and disincentivising electrification. As a Spiegel author put it in an op-ed published this week, 'climate-damaging gas will be preferred when money is tight'. He added that the black-red coalition 'does not show any awareness of the climate crisis.' Bavarian lake monsters Summer time swimmers can relish the fact that Germany's fresh water resources are pretty clean. A recent EU analysis found that just over 90 percent of the country's bathing sites met European quality standards. However, anyone diving into murky waters in Bavaria should beware the local giants that may be lurking below. …Ok, to call them lake monsters (or See monsters, if you will) is a bit of a stretch, but there have been a few incidents involving rather large catfish ( Wels ) in the region. A 90 kg catfish was shot by police after allegedly attacking swimmers in Lake Brombach in Middle Franconia. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/Polizei Mittelfranken A couple weeks back a 90 kilogram, two-metre catfish in Lake Brombach was shot and killed by a police officer after allegedly biting five swimmers. Police spokesman Michael Petzold noted that biting people is 'atypical behaviour'. Catfish aren't normally aggressive, but are thought to become so when protecting their eggs. Advertisement This week, further reports of alleged catfish bites have been reported at the same lake. The killing of the first giant fish stirred up a heated debate between conservationists and anglers. In media reports a local innkeeper was quoted as saying that the fish had been eaten in its entirety – divided into 120 fillet portions that were each served with potato salad and other seasonal sides for €22.50.
Reuters
02-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Heatwaves may cut GDP by 0.5 pct points in Europe, Allianz says
BERLIN, July 2 (Reuters) - Recent heatwaves across Europe could slow economic growth in Europe by half a percentage point in 2025, a report by Allianz Research showed, comparing a day with temperatures above 32 degrees Celsius to half a day of strikes. In Europe, GDP losses range from 0.1 percentage points for Germany to as much as 1.4 percentage points for Spain, where temperatures are around ten degrees higher in summer. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, with far-reaching economic repercussions. Globally, the heatwaves translate to a GDP reduction of 0.6 percentage points this year, Allianz Research said. China, Spain, Italy and Greece could each see GDP losses of nearly one percentage point due to the current heatwaves, the Allianz Research report said, while the U.S. may face a decline of around 0.6 percentage points and France of up to a third of a point. Extreme temperatures also reduce labour productivity, with the International Labour Organization forecasting that heat stress will reduce total potential working hours worldwide by 2.2% by 2030. Productivity losses due to heat can be mitigated, Allianz Research said, calling for structural measures to prepare cities and adapt workplaces.
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
I'm an Economist: My Predictions for Inflation Under President Trump
In Donald Trump's second term, some experts believe the inflation trajectory could continuously point upward and go higher, especially when tariffs, deficits and other policies that would increase inflation are factored in. While forecasting economic conditions isn't an exact science, experts can speculate using knowledge about the past and some clues about the future. Find Out: For You: A report from Allianz Research provides insights into how inflation could unfold under Trump and his administration during round number two. The report shows that while some policies could increase inflation in the short term, the overall inflation path would be shaped by factors like the Federal Reserve's actions and broader economic conditions. GOBankingRates spoke to Maxime Darmet, senior U.S. economist at Allianz Trade, who co-authored a report by Allianz Trade research, titled 'Trumponomics: the Sequel' on this very subject. Here are some key insights. No matter the politics, President Trump has his work cut out for him when it comes to dealing with inflation. The U.S. economy was pretty sturdy before he took office for the second time, but it now shows interest rates climbing and general economic unrest. 'While the U.S. has remained remarkably resilient despite rising interest rates and global uncertainty, it has become more prone to inflation volatility, given a larger exposure to frequent supply shocks and structural labor shortages,' Darmet said. 'Against this backdrop, demand-boosting policies — such as tax cuts — or supply-hurting policies — such as tariff hikes — could re-ignite inflation faster and push up interest rates.' The White House administration should tread carefully with its economic plans. Big tax cuts might sound great at first — they put more cash in your wallet. However, if there are limited goods to spend that money on, it easily overheats the economy and spirals inflation even higher. Read Next: Trump never seems to miss the chance to double down on protectionist policies to boost U.S. manufacturing. He has proposed tariff increases, including 10% on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. The Allianz report discusses two potential scenarios — one in which the U.S. tariff rate rises from 2.5% up to 4.3%. However, another scenario, in which Trump implements all the tariffs he has threatened, could push the rate to around 12%. 'However, in both cases, we would expect Trump to target goods that are not critical for the U.S. economy, equivalent to 55% of imported Chinese goods and 70% of EU goods,' Darmet wrote. 'China's textiles sector and the U.S. transportation equipment sector would be the hardest hit.' Despite some whiplash court decisions, Trump has successfully enacted a series of steep protective tariffs affecting nearly all goods imported into the United States. Between January and April 2025, the average effective U.S. tariff rate rose from 2.5% to an estimated 27% — the highest level in over a century. Of course, Trump isn't exactly working with a fresh economic slate in the White House, as he inherited the budget situation from Biden's term. Trump's bold promises of slashing taxes and ramping up spending quickly ran into some harsh fiscal realities. He'll have to perform some nifty accounting tricks to pull off his economic vision without sending bond market investors into a total panic over the stability of America's finances. One potential gambit would be to hike all those tariffs and trade taxes to fund the tax cut promises while scaling back Biden's pricier policy initiatives. So, unless the Trump 2.0 economy is some world-beater of growth, most forecasters see the new administration ultimately having to pump the brakes on fiscal loosening after maybe a year of smaller tax cuts or spending bumps. Otherwise, the whole economic agenda could wind up crumbling under the weight of unsustainable budgets and debt — something that fiscal conservatives in Trump's party would likely refuse to accept. That deficit dynamic keeps economic advisors up at night as they game-plan Trump's potential second term. Trump has said a goal is to ramp up U.S. manufacturing and reduce foreign manufacturing relationships. However, the report suggests that such policies need to be carefully designed. 'To yield benefits, industrial policy must avoid the risk of targeting too many objectives. In that respect, Trump's ambitious Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative (SNMI) may disappoint when set against its numerous goals and the reality that the U.S. does not have a competitive advantage in many sectors,' Darmet wrote. The Fed's response would shape inflation under the second Trump term. 'Against this backdrop, we would expect the Federal Reserve to be forced to pause its easing cycle in 2025 and the U.S. 10-year yield to stay above 4%,' Darmet wrote. This could control inflation but weigh on growth and markets initially. The report highlights the delicate balance the Fed would face between inflation and economic impacts. Caitlyn Moorhead contributed to the reporting for this article. Editor's note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on More From GOBankingRates 3 Luxury SUVs That Will Have Massive Price Drops in Summer 2025 9 Downsizing Tips for the Middle Class To Save on Monthly Expenses 8 Common Mistakes Retirees Make With Their Social Security Checks This article originally appeared on I'm an Economist: My Predictions for Inflation Under President Trump
