Latest news with #AnandJames
Time of India
8 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
How RIL, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank may drive Monday's market move? Anand James shares insights
Anand James , Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services , cautions that Monday's trading will largely hinge on heavyweight earnings announcements. While Reliance Industries could act as a stabilizing force, HDFC Bank appears technically weak. With the Nifty breaching its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 25,036, James sees a test of critical support levels ahead. He also notes that banking stocks, despite recent selling pressure, are poised for a potential bounce. Edited excerpts from a chat: Q: Nifty ended in the red for the third consecutive week. What do the charts indicate for the rest of the July series? Will 25,000 remain a hurdle? A: Eighteen days after breaching the upper Bollinger Band, the Nifty tested the lower band for the first time on Friday. This, combined with weak directional movement indicators, suggests a sideways trend is more likely in the upcoming week than a vertical drop. Nifty also dipped below the 50-day SMA for the first time since crossing it in April. The 200-day SMA, currently near 24,078—about 3.5% below current levels—has stayed flat for most of the year. This shows the rally has lacked the momentum needed to pull the 200-day SMA higher. We expect a short-term swing higher, with the index unlikely to drop far below 25,000. 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How would you play the market on Monday? Any trading opportunities in the heavyweights? A: On Thursday, Bank Nifty slipped below its 20-day SMA at 56,907, triggering fresh selling. However, it managed to close above key support levels—the wedge pattern support at 56,277 and the 50-day SMA at 56,145—signaling a possible bounce on Monday. ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are closely mirroring the index and could lead a rebound early in the week. HDFC Bank, however, remains technically weak, having closed below both its 20- and 50-day SMAs, which could dampen sentiment. From a derivatives perspective, banking stocks saw fresh shorts on Friday, but nearly 47% of stocks experienced short-covering week-on-week—supporting the case for a short-term pullback. We expect Bank Nifty to attempt a rebound towards the 56,600–56,850 zone early in the week. Sustaining above this range, however, would require renewed momentum. Q: Nifty has breached its 50-day SMA. How vulnerable is it now? A: With the breach of the 50-day SMA at 25,036, Nifty looks vulnerable to further downside. Key support levels to watch are 24,750 and 24,480. Weakness in index heavyweights like HDFC Bank and TCS could intensify the pressure. However, Reliance Industries—Nifty's highest-weighted stock—might offer stability. It is currently forming a base near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,469 and the 50-day SMA at 1,459, which could help curb further declines. Q: Defence stocks are facing sustained selling pressure. Is more pain ahead, or are we near oversold levels? A: Defence stocks gained downside momentum last week after breaking out of recent sideways ranges. Despite the fall, oscillators have not yet reached oversold territory. However, directional indicators are weak, and most stocks are at their farthest distance from their 50-day SMA since early this year. This setup suggests that a mean reversion or bounce-back move could be on the cards in the coming week. Q: Patanjali Foods rallied 17% this week. What's the outlook? A: The momentum remains strong, supporting the uptrend. However, we are cautious at this stage since the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive sessions. Oscillators are beginning to show signs of price exhaustion as the stock nears its April peaks. Entering now carries higher risk. Q: Do you see further upside in GMDC after Friday's 15% surge? A: Remarkably, GMDC reversed a 12-day downtrend in a single session, swinging from one end of the Bollinger Band to the other. While this sharp reversal may be difficult to sustain, dips held above Rs 413 could offer a fresh entry opportunity. Traders may consider entering with a stop-loss at Rs 392. Top Trading Ideas for the Week Max Estates (CMP: Rs 551) View: Buy Target: Rs 567 – 585 Stop-Loss: Rs 532 The stock has formed an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart since August 2024, with a breakout confirmed this week. The breakout aligns with the weekly Supertrend level at Rs 528, strengthening the bullish case. The MACD has also crossed above its signal line. We expect a move towards Rs 567 and Rs 585 over the coming weeks. Maintain long positions with a stop-loss at Rs 532. SDBL (CMP: Rs 160) View: Buy Target: Rs 166 – 170 Stop-Loss: Rs 154.8 The stock reversed strongly this week, closing above horizontal resistance at Rs 157. The MACD is poised to cross above the signal line, and RSI has moved above its 14-day moving average—both bullish signals. A bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart further supports the positive view. We expect near-term upside toward Rs 166–170. Maintain long positions with a stop-loss below Rs 154.8.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Jane Street ban, F&O mess: BSE, NSE shareholders lose Rs 1.4 lakh crore in market cap; what's the outlook?
The significant decline has pushed BSE shares into a bear market, whilst NSE approaches a 20% reduction. (AI image) Shares of BSE and NSE have taken a big hit following the Jane Street controversy, regulatory actions in F&O trading, declining derivatives volume, and negative analyst reports. The shares have in total seen a Rs 1.4 lakh crore decline in market capitalization. The significant decline has pushed BSE shares into a bear market, whilst NSE approaches a 20% reduction, according to an ET report. The situation worsened following SEBI's directive on July 3 that prohibited American quantitative trading company Jane Street from operating in Indian markets and froze Rs 4,840 crore of assets. SEBI alleged the firm conducted "an intentional, well-planned and sinister scheme" to manipulate Nifty Bank. This resulted in an immediate reduction in derivatives trading volume and prompted brokerages to lower their ratings for exchange stocks, anticipating stricter regulatory measures. BSE's share value has decreased by 22% from its Rs 3,030 peak on June 10 to Rs 2,376, resulting in a Rs 26,600 crore reduction in market value. According to WWIPL, which has data for unlisted shares, NSE has experienced a Rs 1.15 lakh crore decline, with shares falling 18% from their June 21 peak of Rs 2,590 to Rs 2,125. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giá vàng đang tăng mạnh trong năm 2025 — Các nhà giao dịch thông minh đã tham gia IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo BSE, NSE Shares Outlook F inancial analysts are now revising their ratings for exchange stocks downward. IIFL Capital has reduced BSE's rating to ADD, due to anticipated volume challenges. "The current uncertainty in the market (ban on Jane Street + possible scrutiny on other players + risk of more regulations amid rising retail losses) would weigh on near-term Exchange volumes," according to the brokerage firm quoted in the ET report. In June, Motilal Oswal similarly lowered BSE's rating to neutral, expressing worries about potential market share decline following changes in weekly contract expiry schedules. "BSE has declined around 22% from the record peak, and last fortnight's sustained downtrend has given the feeling that the stock has entered a full fledged bear trend," stated Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. The immediate consequences of Jane Street's ban were significant. During the first Nifty weekly contracts expiry after the restriction, NSE's total turnover decreased by 21% compared to the previous expiry session. Index options turnover on a notional basis reduced to Rs 472.5 trillion from Rs 601 trillion on July 3. NSE's total premium turnover reached its lowest point since March for an expiry day, with turnover approximately 40% below this year's average. BSE's derivatives trading volumes have declined significantly, with Option Premium ADTO dropping 25% to Rs 105 billion in early July compared to June's average. IIFL Capital has reduced its volume projections by 6-8%, resulting in a 3-5% EPS reduction for FY26-28, following an earlier 4-5% EPS reduction in June 2025. This decline is particularly concerning for investors, as recent SEBI data indicates that retail traders in India experienced substantial losses of Rs 1.05 lakh crore in derivatives trading during FY25. The situation for retail traders has worsened considerably. While the number of individual derivative traders increased from 86.3 lakh in FY24 to 96 lakh in FY25, their financial losses grew more severely. The average loss per trader increased by 27%, rising from Rs 86,728 in FY24 to Rs 1,10,069 in FY25. SEBI's regulatory circular of May 26 has introduced additional changes, requiring exchanges to restrict equity derivatives contract expiry to either Tuesdays or Thursdays, eliminating the previous alternating expiry schedule between exchanges. NSE will change its equity derivatives expiry from Thursday to Tuesday starting September 1, 2025, while BSE has switched to Thursday from its previous Tuesday schedule. The aggregate Option Premium ADTO declined significantly by 19% month-on-month, reaching Rs 510 billion in July, showing a 28% reduction compared to first quarter FY26. The decrease in volume was attributed to reduced volatility, as India VIX averaged 12 in July, lower than the previous month's 14 and first quarter FY26's 16. "We believe weakness in volume can sustain in short term due to recent regulatory changes (ban on Jane Street + other members may also be under scrutiny)," IIFL Capital noted, pointing out that derivative volumes through colocation servers, predominantly used by high-frequency traders, constitute 55-60% of total volumes. The impact of regulatory measures introduced in November 2024 to regulate derivatives trading is becoming evident. According to SEBI's analysis from December 2024 to May 2025, index options turnover decreased by 9% year-on-year in premium terms whilst dropping 29% in notional terms. Individual trading activity showed an 11% reduction in premium terms year-on-year, accompanied by a 20% decrease in unique individual trader participation compared to the previous year. Jefferies analysis indicates Jane Street's BSE turnover share is approximately 1%, pointing to minimal direct earnings impact. "A 100bps impact on our FY26 premium estimates would impact EPS by ~60-70bps," according to the brokerage's assessment. The forthcoming September expiry swap is anticipated to create additional challenges. According to IIFL Capital's projections, BSE will experience a 10-12% volume reduction following its expiry shift from Tuesday to Thursday. Based on updated calculations, IIFL Capital assigns BSE a valuation multiple of 45x (reduced from 50x) with a target price of Rs 2,200, suggesting an 11% potential decline. "We downgrade the stock to ADD given near-term uncertainty, which would weigh on both earnings and valuations," states IIFL Capital, whilst maintaining optimistic long-term outlook considering potential 15-20% earnings enhancement. The challenges facing the exchange sector highlight increasing regulatory scrutiny. Given the rising retail investor losses in F&O trading, SEBI might implement additional measures to restrict option trading volumes. Currently, market participants anticipate further difficulties as the derivatives market undergoes restructuring, with exchange shareholders experiencing the primary impact of regulatory measures. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market: Nifty 50 falls below 25,100. Check key levels for the index this week
Indian stock market: Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Monday, pressured by losses in financial and IT sectors. Investor sentiment stayed subdued due to ongoing concerns over global trade tariffs and weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings from Tata Consultancy Services, the country's top IT company. The BSE Sensex fell by 337 points, or 0.40%, to 82,182, while the NSE Nifty dropped 92 points, or 0.37%, to 25,057. ' Following a week long consolidation and a break down on Friday, only 24% of Nifty 50 constituents ended up closing above their respective 10 day SMAs. This is the lowest number since early June. Parabolic SAR has also given a sell signal for the first time since late June,' said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. On Friday last week, benchmark indices extended their losing streak for the third straight session on July 11, dragged by weakness in IT stocks post-TCS earnings and concerns over potential global trade disruptions following former US President Trump's tariff remarks. The Nifty 50 closed the week at 25,149.85, down 205 points or 0.81%, breaching the crucial support zone near 25,330. According to brokerage firm Choice Broking, Nifty has broken below its previous swing low on the daily chart, indicating that the index is undergoing a short-term corrective phase from higher levels. " The price is now approaching the key Fibonacci support zone near 25,000, where a reversal signal may emerge, given that the broader trend remains bullish. Momentum indicators show weakening sentiment. The RSI is at 48.75 and trending downward, while the MACD has given a negative crossover, both suggesting caution. A close above 25,330 could reignite bullish momentum, potentially targeting 25,670–26,000. On the downside, if 25,000 breaks decisively, the next support lies at 24,750," it said. Support Levels: 25100-25000 Resistance Levels: 25300-25600 On Friday, the Bank Nifty index closed at 56,754.70, registering a 0.49% decline from the previous week's close. The weekly chart indicates rejection at higher levels, as the index failed to sustain above the crucial 57,000 mark. The brokerage firm said that this selling pressure suggests a potential pause in the ongoing uptrend, pointing towards a likely sideways to bearish or consolidation phase in the near term. " On the weekly timeframe, Bank Nifty is trading above all its key moving averages, including the short-term 20-day, medium-term 50-day, and long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating an overall uptrend. However, the selling pressure at higher levels and the inability to sustain above the crucial 57,000 mark suggest that the index is entering a consolidation phase. Key downside support is placed in the 56,500–56,000 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63.83, indicating a sideways momentum. This consolidation phase could lead to either a time-wise or price-wise correction as the index awaits fresh triggers for its next directional move. The Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 57,000–57,500 range. If the index continues to move higher, Kotak Bank from the private banking sector is expected to support the uptrend. Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBIN is anticipated to show strength and contribute to any potential upside," it said. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
BSE, NSE investors foot Rs 1.4 lakh crore bill for Jane Street scandal, F&O mess clean-up
BSE and NSE shareholders have collectively lost Rs 1.4 lakh crore in market capitalisation since last month as the Jane Street scandal, ongoing regulatory cleanup of the F&O mess, plunging derivatives turnover, and analyst downgrades have triggered a sell-off. The carnage has pushed BSE shares deep into bear territory while NSE teeters dangerously close to the 20% decline threshold. The bloodbath accelerated after SEBI 's bombshell July 3 order barring US quant trading firm Jane Street from Indian markets, freezing Rs 4,840 crore of assets over allegations the firm ran "an intentional, well-planned and sinister scheme" to manipulate Nifty Bank. The fallout was immediate and brutal, with derivatives turnover collapsing and brokerages rushing to downgrade exchange stocks amid fears of further regulatory tightening. BSE shares have plummeted 22% from their June 10 peak of Rs 3,030 to Rs 2,376, wiping out Rs 26,600 crore in market value. NSE has lost Rs 1.15 lakh crore, with shares down 18% from their June 21 high of Rs 2,590 to Rs 2,125, according to data from WWIPL, which deals in unlisted shares. Market analysts have now begun to downgrade exchange stocks. IIFL Capital downgraded BSE to ADD, citing near-term volume headwinds. "The current uncertainty in the market (ban on Jane Street + possible scrutiny on other players + risk of more regulations amid rising retail losses) would weigh on near-term Exchange volumes," the brokerage said. Also Read | Jane Street aftermath: 4 stocks suffer Rs 12,000 crore wipeout in collateral damage Last month, Motilal Oswal had also downgraded BSE to neutral while citing concerns over a potential market share loss following the shift in weekly contract expiries. "BSE has declined around 22% from the record peak, and last fortnight's sustained downtrend has given the feeling that the stock has entered a full fledged bear trend," said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. The immediate impact of the Jane Street ban was stark. On the first expiry of Nifty weekly contracts since the prohibition, total turnover on NSE dropped 21% compared to the previous expiry day. Index options turnover on a notional basis slipped to Rs 472.5 trillion, down from Rs 601 trillion on July 3. Total premium turnover on NSE hit its lowest level since mid-March for an expiry day, with turnover about 40% lower than this year's average. BSE's Option Premium ADTO in the first 8 trading sessions of July plunged 25% to Rs 105 billion versus June average. IIFL Capital cut its volume assumption by 6-8%, leading to a 3-5% EPS cut over FY26-28, on top of a 4-5% EPS cut done in June 2025. The timing couldn't be more damaging for exchange investors, coming as fresh SEBI data reveals Indian retail traders suffered a crushing Rs 1.05 lakh crore loss in derivatives trading during FY25 alone. The regulatory assault comes as retail traders' misery deepened dramatically. Individual derivative traders surged from 86.3 lakh in FY24 to 96 lakh in FY25, but their losses multiplied. Average losses per person jumped from Rs 86,728 in FY24 to Rs 1,10,069 in FY25, a devastating 27% increase. SEBI's May 26 landmark circular mandating changes in expiry days for equity derivatives contracts has added to the pressure. The regulator specified that exchanges must limit expiry days to just Tuesdays or Thursdays, ending the expiry-day ping-pong between exchanges. NSE shifted its equity derivatives expiry from Thursday to Tuesday effective September 1, 2025, while BSE moved to Thursday from its previous Tuesday slot. Also Read | Explained: What is Jane Street and how it made Rs 36,500 crore profit by gaming Dalal Street The broader market Option Premium ADTO tumbled 19% month-on-month to Rs 510 billion in July, down 28% versus first quarter FY26. Low volatility, with India VIX averaging 12 in July versus 14 month-on-month and 16 in first quarter FY26, contributed to the volume reduction. "We believe weakness in volume can sustain in short term due to recent regulatory changes (ban on Jane Street + other members may also be under scrutiny)," IIFL Capital noted, highlighting that volumes through colocation servers, extensively used by high-frequency traders, account for 55-60% of derivative volumes. The regulatory measures implemented in November 2024 to cool the derivatives frenzy are showing impact. SEBI's report covering December 2024 to May 2025 shows index options turnover down 9% year-on-year in premium terms and 29% in notional terms. Individual turnover in premium terms declined 11% year-on-year, with the number of unique individual traders down 20% compared to the previous year. Jefferies estimates Jane Street's contribution to BSE at around 1% of turnover, suggesting limited direct impact on earnings. "A 100bps impact on our FY26 premium estimates would impact EPS by ~60-70bps," the brokerage said. However, the September expiry swap is expected to deliver another blow. IIFL Capital estimates BSE will lose 10-12% of its volume when it moves its expiry from Tuesday to Thursday. On revised estimates, the brokerage values BSE at 45x (versus 50x earlier) and ascribes a fair value of Rs 2,200, implying 11% downside. "We downgrade the stock to ADD given near-term uncertainty, which would weigh on both earnings and valuations," IIFL Capital said, though it maintained a positive bias from long-term horizon given potential for 15-20% earnings upgrade. The exchange sector's woes reflect broader concerns about regulatory tightening. With increasing retail losses in F&O trading, further measures by SEBI to curtail option volumes remain a possibility. For now, market participants are bracing for more pain as the derivatives market cleanup continues, with exchange shareholders bearing the brunt of the regulatory reckoning. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
13-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Time to book profits? Anand James recommends sell on rise strategy for IT stocks
Even as Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra are showing signs of a technical rebound , Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, any such recovery is likely to be met with renewed selling pressure. A sell on rise strategy may be employed. Edited excerpts from a chat: Nifty has seen two successive weeks of negative endings amid lack of any positive fundamental triggers to take the market higher. How do you look at this consolidation mode with a downside bias from the technical lens? Following a week-long consolidation and a breakdown on Friday, only 24% of Nifty50 constituents ended up closing above their respective 10-day SMAs. This is the lowest number since early June. Parabolic SAR has also given a sell signal, which is the first time since late June. We have brought in the 200-day SMA in our calculations, which at 24,100 is now over 4% away from present levels. Incidentally, 46% of both Nifty50 and Nifty500 constituents are now trading below their respective 200-day SMA. Our hopes are now at 24,920, which is near the 50-day SMA to provide a window for reversal. IT stocks were among the worst hit last week as investors don't expect much from the Q1 earnings season as far as largecap IT stocks are concerned. Do you see chances of more downside ahead? The Nifty IT index is showing signs of underlying weakness, highlighted by a prominent bearish Marubozu candle on the weekly chart. This suggests strong selling pressure and a lack of buying interest. The weekly MACD histogram has formed a reversal candle, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. From a derivatives perspective, most constituent stocks have witnessed short additions on both daily and weekly timeframes, indicating sustained bearish positioning. This could potentially drag the index down towards the 37,050 level in the near term. However, on extremely short-term periodicities, the index is approaching oversold territory. Key stocks like Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra are showing signs of a technical rebound, which could lift the index temporarily towards the 38,000 mark early next week. That said, any such recovery is likely to be met with renewed selling pressure. A sell on rise strategy may be employed. FMCG stocks were on a positive trajectory given growth seen in their Q1 business updates. How do you read the momentum building in the days ahead? Nifty FMCG index has been trading within a descending trend channel since April. Earlier this week, it briefly broke above the channel resistance near 55,960 but failed to sustain the breakout, closing below both the resistance and the Supertrend level. This failed breakout adds to the uncertainty surrounding the continuation of the upward move. On the hourly chart, the index has been moving within a rising channel since the start of the week, with immediate support seen around the 55,780–55,760 zone. A pullback attempt from this region is possible. However, a close below 55,760 would be a sign of caution, potentially opening the door for a decline toward the 55,300–55,200 range. From a derivatives standpoint, short positions have outweighed long additions on both daily and weekly timeframes, indicating waning bullish momentum. While Hindustan Unilever was the top contributor to this week's gains, most heavyweights—such as ITC, Nestlé India, Varun Beverages, Britannia, Tata Consumer, Godrej Consumer, and United Spirits, which collectively account for around 60% of the index—witnessed profit booking and remain under pressure. Looking ahead, the index may remain neutral to weak in the coming week. However, relatively resilient names like Hindustan Unilever and Dabur could help cushion deeper declines. BSE shares were among the worst performing ones within Nifty500 and ended the week down 10% amid negative news flow around derivatives. How would you go about trading the stock now? BSE has declined over 22% from the record peak, and last fortnight's sustained downtrend has given the feeling that the stock has entered a full fledged bear trend. However, with Friday's close, BSE is now near 38% fibo of the March to June rise, even as oscillators are also showing signals of exhaustion in downtrend. This encourages us to plan for a sideways move next week. Signals towards upswings are not forthcoming yet, but we will know, once a consolidation gains dominance over the declining spree. Give us your top ideas for the week ahead. BHARTI HEXA (CMP:1,791) View – Buy Target – 1,930 Stop loss – 1,729 Bharti Hexacom has been trading within an upward-sloping Widening Wedge pattern since May. After hitting a fresh all-time high earlier this month, the stock has entered a phase of profit booking. Over the past three sessions, the formation of multiple Doji candles near the lower boundary of the wedge suggests indecision and potential attempts to stabilize or rebound from current levels. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram is showing early signs of exhaustion, hinting at a possible reversal in momentum. If the stock manages to hold above the wedge support, a move toward the 1,930 level could unfold over the next few weeks. Traders holding long positions should consider placing a protective stop-loss below 1,729 to manage downside risk effectively. ASTERDM (CMP:607) View – Buy Target – 630 Stop loss – 589 While the stock remains in a broader uptrend, it experienced some profit booking last week. Despite this, it formed an inside bar Doji candle on Friday, suggesting a potential attempt to reverse course. Notably, this reversal zone aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the June low to the July high—adding strength to the bullish setup. Given these technical cues, the stock is likely to move toward the 630 level in the near term. Traders holding long positions should consider placing a stop-loss below 589 to safeguard against downside risk.
