Latest news with #AnanthaNageswaran
Economic Times
25-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Overall situation rosier than expected; we are getting into peace, not war & India is in a sweet spot: Swaminathan Aiyar
Live Events You Might Also Like: Consensus not confident on India's cyclical revival for next 2 years: Jigar Mistry (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Consulting Editor,, says geopolitical tensions are easing across several regions. There is de-escalation between Russia and Kyiv, and positive developments in Israel. India-Pakistan and Iraq-Iran relations are also showing signs of improvement. India's economic performance is exceptional. Optimism surrounds India's ability to exceed expectations this year. The overall outlook is surprisingly positive at this moment.I would say that what is happening is astonishingly positive. Just as we thought we are getting into a war, we are actually getting into a peace, and getting out of the war. We have an unusual situation now where there is in effect a ceasefire in Ukraine, Kyiv; a ceasefire is foreseen over Israel and Iran. The Americans have finished off the regime in Iran which seeks no immediate revenge. It wants to survive right now. We had an almost laughable situation where Iran said they will send some missiles to bomb American facilities in Qatar, but informed them in advance, so that everything would be safe and there would be no damage and no at this particular point, when people were worrying about World War III or a nuclear war, the attitude of the Iranian government was 'I just want to survive, I want to de-escalate at this point.' So, we have a situation which is very positive in terms of both Kyiv and what is happening in Israel. Peace is breaking out, in a sense, in both ways. So, a lot of the things that we are worrying about are giving way to pretty positive things as far as geopolitics is concerned. Far from being worst case scenarios, we are moving towards some pretty good case scenarios as far as the hostilities are concerned. And shall we say India-Pakistan also? So, India-Pakistan, Iraq-Iran, Russia- Kyiv, everything is settling down at this particular point. It is a very surprisingly positive outlook right is in a sweet spot. It is more than that. If you look at the actual performance of the last two financial years, 2023-24 growth has been revised up to 9.2%. When that happened, a lot of people sneered and said this is because of an extremely extraordinarily low GDP deflator. But if that was the case, then we should have had just the other way around in 24-25 and therefore, 24-25 should have come the proper thing is to take the average of the two. If you take the average of those two years, it is 7.8%. It is nowhere near the 6.5% that Mr Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Adviser, is aiming at. It is far above at a time when the overall global situation has been very tough. So, I can only say that it is not just India's prospects, India's actual performance in the last two years on the basis of the latest data, looks so exceptional that there is a case for optimism that this year too, we will exceed the kind of targets being put the other hand, the chance of a recession in the USA remains. The other thing that is happening is Mr Trump has persuaded or shall we say forced a new attitude in Europe. The European Union instead of saying we will spend 3% of GDP on defence, will have to aim at 5%. So, the cold war dividend is now gone and all these countries will be spending more on armament. There may be correspondingly less available for consumer demand to that extent and that could be a negative. These are the two medium-term negatives still out overall, India has the capacity to look forward with some confidence that we have overcome extremely difficult situations. Will we be able to overcome the challenges of the coming short recession? Possibly. Will we be able to overcome this gradual fall in consumer demand that we are seeing? Yes. What will happen about Mr Trump's tariffs remains a question. The 90 days deadline for Trump tariffs is coming up. What happens after 90 days? Will the reciprocal tariffs come back? Will they go up? Will they go down?We have a new situation in the USA where some courts are beginning to take note of does Mr Trump have the right as president to declare that on the basis of national emergency, he is going to raise these tariffs across the board? One American court has ruled that while you can do specific things like raise tariffs on priority items like aluminium or steel, but to impose a 10% tariff across the board is not an emergency action. So, let us see what happens. The courts also may be able to stop some of the worst actions that Mr Trump has threatened on the tariff side. We are getting close to that 90-day deadline. Let us see. But as I said, the overall situation is looking much rosier than I would have said one month ago.
Time of India
13-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
CEA Nageswaran to talk on policy issues
Thiruvananthapuram: Chief economic advisor (CEA) to the govt of India V Anantha Nageswaran will deliver a talk on Global Economic Trends: India's Challenges and Prospects on June 17 at the Raj Bhavan. He will present India's opportunities and the challenges that lie ahead for planners and policymakers alike in the context of India becoming the fourth largest economy in the world in GDP terms, said a statement issued by the Raj Bhavan. These factors, along with economic diplomacy, international trade and tariff, and the prime minister's call for Make In India, will form part of the deliberations by CEA. Follow more information on Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad here . Get real-time live updates on rescue operations and check full list of passengers onboard AI 171 .
Time of India
06-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Latest technologies like AI, IoT need to be used to improve quality of data: CEA
New Delhi, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said latest technology, including artificial intelligence and internet of things, need to be used to improve quality of data, which is the bedrock of policymaking. Addressing the National Workshop on Using Alternate Data Sources and Frontier Technologies for Policy Making, Nageswaran emphasised that data generated by statistical systems and alternate data complement each other, rather than substituting each other. He said the latest trends in technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), have to go hand in hand with skilling of manpower, ensuring authenticity, reliability of the data quality with advanced design of algorithms holds the key in this endeavour. He further mentioned that data generated by the statistical systems has been the bed rock of policymaking in India. Suman K Bery, Vice Chairperson NITI Aayog and Chairman, EAC to the PM, said the way forward on integration of conventional data with alternate data sources. Bery focused on utilising data generated through traditional modes of data collection and rigorous statistical analysis forming the basis for evidence-based policymaking . He highlighted the importance of ensuring quality of administrative data. The insights from traditional as well as alternate data sources need to be strengthened with emphasis on data processing and assimilation, he added. Statistics and Programme Implementation Secretary Saurabh Garg said MoSPI has been brainstorming from the last couple of years as to how alternate data sources can be integrated in the existing national statistical system and this workshop is the culmination of the efforts made in past. With the objective of enhancing harmonisation of data having practical utility, Garg enlisted five key building blocks -- meta data structures, international and national classifications, unique identifiers, self-quality assessment tools, and reconciliation of diverse data to achieve such endeavour. P R Mesharam, Director General (Data Governance), MoSPI, reiterated that NSO India, with its time-tested statistical products, has facilitated the evidence-based policy making over a long period of time. The need of the hour is to use alternative data sources and frontier technologies to strengthen data eco-system of the country and provide data for evidence-based decision making in real time, he said. He added that this is in line with developing enhanced statistical capabilities "supporting our vision of becoming a developed nation". On the opening day of the workshop, MoSPI also released annual publication 'EnviStats India, 2025: Environment Statistics'. The publication is a key resource for policymakers, researchers and other stakeholders, offering a comprehensive overview of the country's environmental landscape.
Gulf Today
31-05-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
India's economy outperforms peers as it surges 7.4% in Q1
India's economy surged 7.4% in January to March, much faster than forecasts and driven by construction and manufacturing, although uncertainty about US tariffs poses risks to the outlook. Gross domestic product in Asia's third-largest economy was above a forecast year-on-year growth of 6.7% in a Reuters poll, and was up from a revised 6.4% expansion in the previous quarter, official data released on Friday showed. It was the fastest increase in GDP since January-March 2024. 'India's growth is holding up in a growth-scarce environment,' said V. Anantha Nageswaran, India's chief economic adviser, after the release of the data, adding India outshone other large and contemporary economies. They include China, which grew 5.4% in January-March. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects GDP growth of 6.5% in the fiscal year beginning April 1. At that rate, India will remain the fastest growing major economy and could match Japan for size this year at $4.18 trillion, according to projections by the IMF. The gross value added (GVA), seen as a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, grew 6.8% in the first three months of 2025, compared to a revised expansion of 6.5% in the previous quarter. GVA strips out indirect taxes and government subsidy payouts, which tend to be volatile. Manufacturing output rose 4.8% year-on-year in January-March, the final quarter of India's fiscal year, compared with a revised expansion of 3.6% in the previous quarter, while construction activity jumped 10.8%, up from 7.9% in the previous quarter. 'The GDP print for Q4 is higher than expected. This indicates that the economy has recovered from the slowdown seen in the middle of last year,' said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist, HDFC bank. However, the outlook for the current fiscal year faces challenges given a global slowdown and tariff uncertainties, she said, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes. Trump proposed reciprocal tariffs of 26% on imports from India but they are on hold until July 9 as trade talks continue. Growth in private consumer spending, which accounts for 57% of Indian GDP, eased to 6% year-on-year in January-March, from an upwardly revised 8.1% expansion in the previous quarter, as urban spending weakened whereas rural demand for durables and farm equipment like tractors improved. Retail inflation, which eased to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April, alongside a favourable monsoon forecast, is expected to keep food prices in check and pave the way for the Reserve Bank of India to cut its policy repo rate again next month. Government spending fell 1.8% in the three months through March compared to a revised expansion of 9.3% in the previous quarter, the data showed. Capital spending rose 9.4% in the quarter though private firms are expected to delay investments amid global uncertainties including trade tariffs. Growth for the fiscal year was estimated at 6.5% and the size of the Indian economy rose to 330.68 trillion rupees ($3.87 trillion) as of the end of March. Economists said that while economic growth in the current fiscal year could be affected by global uncertainties weighing on near term investment intentions, a strong monsoon, tax cuts announced by the government and continued interest rate cuts could support domestic demand. New Zealand hails trade talks: New Zealand's deputy prime minister said on Friday that talks over a free trade agreement between his country and India were ongoing, but he didn't provide a timeline for when the two nations could eventually sign a deal. Winston Peters, who is on a two-day visit to India, said that the negotiations were 'going with real meaning now,' calling them 'a breakthrough in our economic relationship.' India and New Zealand began negotiations in March for a trade pact, and had aimed to sign a deal in 60 days. The deal will significantly bolster economic ties between the two countries, but it has faced delays because of differences over tariffs on dairy products. Bilateral trade between India and New Zealand stood at $1.7 billion in the 2023-24 financial year. Talks between India and New Zealand were taking place amid global trade tensions, after US President Donald Trump's decision to impose now-paused reciprocal tariffs on imported goods from several countries, including India. Earlier this month, India and the United Kingdom clinched a trade deal. India is also engaged in trade talks with Washington. Peters, who met with India's Group of 20 emissary, Amitabh Kant, in New Delhi, said that India was New Zealand's 12th-largest partner in trade and 'we are determined that we're going to work to change that.' 'Our strengths, from food and beverage products to agriculture, forestry, horticulture, education and tourism are world class. And our innovation in areas like outer space and renewable energy will find a welcoming partner in India,' he said. Peters said that the relationship between the two countries extended to defense and security, calling it a 'priority for New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific.' Agencies
Mint
31-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indian economy ‘doing quite well', may grow up to 6.8% in FY26, driven by FDI, urban spending: CEA Nageswaran
Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran said that the Indian economy is performing well and may achieve a growth rate at the upper end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection, provided there are continued measures to promote foreign direct investment and an increase in capital investment by the private sector, along with boosted urban consumption. "All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well," the CEA told reporters on Friday at a virtual press conference after GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released. 'And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let's say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent),' he added. The Indian economy grew by 6.5% in real terms for FY25, aligning with expectations. As per the second advance estimates of National Statistical Office (NSO), the Indian economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimated 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25. Notably, India's GDP grew by 9.2 per cent in FY24, while the economy grew 7.2 per cent in FY23 and 8.7 per cent in FY22. The government also released the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter on Friday. The economy grew 7.4 per cent for the quarter ended on March 31, 2025. Meanwhile, the growth rate of the Indian economy in the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters stood at 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Speaking on the impact of the unusual onset of monsoon and its impact on the vegetable prices, Nageswaran said, 'To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue.' Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above normal in India, particularly in India's key rain-fed agricultural belt, as per IMD. Additionally, monsoon arrived early in several states this year. CEA stated that global growth for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be slow amid the global uncertainties. However, the forecast cuts will be smaller for India in the global cuts. Speaking on inflation, he further said that food inflation is likely to remain low due to a good harvest and above normal monsoon. 'Food Inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurement, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures,' CEA said. The government maintains its outlook for 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, driven primarily by private consumption, particularly the rural rebound, and growth in services exports. Various agencies have projected India's growth to fall within the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent for 2025-26. (With inputs from agencies)
