Latest news with #AndrewFlowers
CNBC
06-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The 'cracks in the foundation' of the job market are starting to show, economist says—and the big picture is worse than it seems
The latest economic reports show a surprisingly stable U.S. job market, but there are "cracks in the foundation" that could spell trouble for workers in the coming months, according to Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast, a recruitment marketing provider. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, beating expectations and down slightly from 147,000 in April, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% while the underemployed rate, or the share of part-time workers who want full-time jobs, remained unchanged at 7.8%. Looking at the bigger picture, the job market is "treading water" and "worse than what the topline number says," Flowers tells CNBC Make It. The economy netted an average 144,000 new jobs every month in the last year. That's the lowest since 2011, excluding the pandemic-era drop, Flowers says . Meanwhile, the bulk of available positions come from health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. These sectors generally fuel a lot of new work, but tariffs and health-care policies in the Trump administration's "Big, Beautiful Bill" could limit their growth, Flowers says. The spending bill, which passed the House and is now under consideration in the Senate, would cut Medicaid spending by $700 billion and make signing up for health plans on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces harder and more expensive. Federal funding cuts to health care, which has accounted for roughly 30% of new jobs in the past three years, could "kill the golden goose, so to speak," Flowers says. "Health care has been the one stalwart industry to power job growth." Leisure and hospitality work could similarly be in danger as businesses pass the cost of new tariffs on to customers, and consumers pull back on spending, Flowers says. Tariffs are already "starting to bite," Flowers adds, pointing to declines in the warehousing and retail jobs that buoyed April job growth. "Going forward, a lot of the eggs are in one basket, which is health care." The job-search experience, meanwhile, remains challenging. Some 40% of job-seekers are not confident in the number of jobs available today, and nearly a third expect fewer jobs to be available six months from now, according to ZipRecruiter's latest job-seeker confidence index. "It's an insider vs. outsider labor market," Flowers says. "If you have a job, it's actually pretty good." Layoffs are relatively low while the unemployment rate is steady and wage growth is strong. But "the job-finding rate is really slipping" for those on the market, especially for entry-level workers getting their first jobs out of high school or college, Flowers says. Growth is weak around knowledge-worker jobs in finance, marketing, sales and software development, while the professional and business services sector sheds jobs, Flowers says. 'We've told young people in this country for decades, 'Go to college.' And they did," Flowers says. "Now all the jobs they want, whether it's in tech, marketing, sales, banking or for the federal government, those are all the weakest areas." "We're on this collision course where young people are going to face a harder time getting the jobs that they wanted, but all the blue-collar jobs are going to be very hard to fill," Flowers says. Overall, the U.S. economy has contracted over the last six weeks, as shown in declining business growth, higher prices and slower hiring, according to a new Federal Reserve report. "All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions," according to the report. It noted hiring was "little changed" and "flat" in some districts where candidate pools are growing, but turnover remains stubbornly low.
The Hill
22-05-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Economists warn tariffs may affect jobs
Uncertainty is in the air, but it might be June at the earliest before we see the results of the new tariffs, say leading economists. According to the latest Employment Situation Summary, issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 2nd, for total nonfarm payroll employment, 177,00 jobs were added in April. This was down slightly from 185,000 jobs added in March, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent. Things seem to be looking good, except for the fact that even pre-tariffs, the U.S. GDP shrunk for the first time in three years (decreasing at an annual rate of 0.3 percent) from January to March.5 jobs hiring right now However, it wasn't until April 2nd that President Trump announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, effective from April 5th, with higher tariffs on imports from 57 countries, ranging from 11% to 50%. Referring to the latest Employment Situation Summary, Appcast economist Andrew Flowers asked in a recent video: 'Is this the last 'before' jobs report?' He highlights that healthcare added 50,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 24,000 jobs, while professional and business services added 17,000 jobs. Discussing the 'before', Flowers says a job gain of 29,000 in transportation and warehousing jobs in April was indicative of consumers and businesses frontloading their purchases of foreign goods. As a consumer, you've probably already been targeted by online price reduction ads on items before retail prices are raised due to tariffs. This has caused influxes of sales and increased the need for trucking and warehousing staff. But how sustainable is this rise? He also points to federal workforce reductions of 9,000 last month, which was expected. Reflecting on the April jobs report, Flowers' outlook on Q2 is mixed. 'It's showing strength, but the tariffs are a major shock. We've seen huge declines in transoceanic shipments. There's anecdotal evidence from businesses that inventories are being depleted as consumers and businesses are preparing for the tariff impacts that could really materialize in the coming weeks and months.' Meanwhile, Glassdoor's lead economist Daniel Zhao agrees that this report might be the benchmark we'll measure tariff impacts against, but May might be too soon. In a lengthy LinkedIn post, he highlighted much of the same figures as Andrew Flowers did, but also shared that manufacturing employment fell by 1,000 in April. Though a modest decline and early days, it may disappoint voters who took a punt on the president's campaign promises to revive American manufacturing. Zhao stresses that the true impact of the tariffs won't show up quickly. 'Keep in mind that the job market can be a lagging indicator for the overall economy as it takes time for businesses to hire and fire workers at a scale that shows up in the national economic data.''Tariff impacts will also be staggered as many employers took anticipatory measures to build up inventories in advance and some sectors are more exposed than others. The back half of the year is really where the full impact of tariffs are likely to become clear. And of course, this all depends on what tariffs look like over the next few months as tariff policy feels like it's changing on a near-daily basis.' This means many companies and organizations are sitting tight, and are avoiding making any big decisions. Spooked by unpredictability, many companies have paused or canceled hiring until the economy is on clearer footing. It's already a tough job market out there, as anyone hunting will know, and this uncertainty doesn't help matters. Concurrently, the federal firing freeze will last until July 15th at least, plus there's the fact that over 121,000 federal employees were laid off in the first quarter of 2025, not including those who took voluntary is fierce, and job opportunities are fewer and fewer. Overall job postings are down 7.4% year-over-year as of April 2025, according to Aura real-time data from KPMG shows that job postings are down in major states such as California, New York, and Massachusetts, and with especially notable declines in Washington, DC, Virginia, and Maryland due to federal government cuts. It hasn't been this difficult to job hunt in a very long time. Additionally, those who are already employed but seeking a new opportunity may be burdened by extra workloads due to hiring freezes, and may be too burnt out to job hunt in the evenings and weekends. If you're navigating this challenging job market, you can stay informed about new opportunities as they become available on The Hill's Job Board. Updated daily with a range of roles in policy, communications, and related fields, it's an extremely valuable resource. Bookmark the link below, and visit regularly to stay up to date. Ready to find a new role? Browse thousands of jobs on The Hill Job Board
