Latest news with #AndyHazelton
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Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
A brewing tropical system in North Florida prompts flood watch in South Florida
South Florida could see some street flooding Monday and Tuesday, thanks to a potential tropical system brewing near the north end of the state. The Miami office of the National Weather Service called for a flood watch — when there's a chance of flooding but it's not yet happening — for Monday afternoon and Tuesday in urban southeast Florida. 'Regardless of how the disturbance evolves, widespread 1-3' of rain are expected across South Florida between today and Thursday morning, with a reasonable worst case scenario for isolated locations of 5-7' or more,' the NWS said early Monday. The heaviest of those rains are expected Monday afternoon through late evening. The moisture sparking all that rain is attached to a low-pressure system drifting off the northeast coast of Florida this weekend. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will cross the state in the next day or so and form in the Gulf around Tuesday — potentially as a tropical depression. As of Monday morning, the NHC gave the system a 30% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 10% chance of strengthening in the next day. For now, weather models continue to show the system developing into a weak and broad depression toting plenty of rain. 'The amount of development will probably depend on how far offshore it stays,' Andy Hazelton, an associated scientist at the University of Miami, posted on X. 'I think it's worth keeping an eye on trends for this one..' A very similar setup last week led to the third named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Chantal, which came ashore in North Carolina with deadly flooding that claimed several lives. The next name on the list is Dexter.
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
'Lives are at stake:' Deadly Texas storms put spotlight on Trump's weather agency cuts
Deadly storms over the 4 July holiday ravaged Texas' Hill Country with several months' worth of rain in a few hours, leaving behind mangled trees, swaths of deep mud and heartbreak over hundreds lost or missing. They also renewed focus on the US government's ability to warn and protect residents from weather catastrophes. The intense rainfall and flash floods are the deadliest weather disaster in the US since President Donald Trump's administration conducted mass staff cuts at two key weather and climate agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organisation (NOAA) and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service (NWS). While experts say the National Weather Service issued alerts in a timely manner over the weekend, the deadly incident carries warnings about what could happen if the NWS and NOAA are not properly staffed and funded in the future. "The Weather Service did a good job with the information you had here. I don't think the staffing cuts contributed to this," said Andy Hazelton, a climate scientist who was laid off from NOAA where he modelled hurricane paths. "But this is the kind of event we can see more of if the cuts to NOAA continue, if you make the models worse or have the staffing levels lower." The agency already has taken a significant hit. Since February, the weather service has lost about 600 staff through a combination of firings, early retirements, and deferred resignations, said Tom Fahy, legislative director of the National Weather Service Employees Organisation. Those cuts struck every corner of the agency, said Mr Fahy, from meteorologists to technical specialists to hydrologists, who specialise in flooding. "We lost a full spectrum of the employees and the brainpower for the National Weather Services," he said. Several offices nationally are operating far below traditional staffing levels for meteorologists, Mr Fahy told the BBC. Typically, an NWS office has at least 13 such scientists on their staff, he said. Yet offices in Goodland, Kansas and Hanford, California each have a 61.5% vacancy rate for meteorologists, according to the NWSEO union data. The office in Amarillo, Texas, has a 30.77% vacancy rate for meteorologists, and Rapid City, South Dakota was at 46.15%. "Staffing has to be increased, we have to do this across the country, we need more individuals to do this," Mr Fahy said. "You can't run a weather forecast office on a bare bones operation. Too many things are at stake, too many lives at are at stake." The San Antonio office, which played a leading role in forecasting last week's deadly rainstorms, has about a 22% total vacancy rate, according to a tally of open roles on its website. But it had "additional forecasters on duty during the catastrophic flooding event", NWS spokeswoman Erica Grow Cei said in a statement. Limited staffing would not immediately spell disaster anyhow, according to a volunteer who works with the San Antonio weather office to disseminate alerts in his community. 'Hero' dad, twin girls and riverside campers among Texas flood victims Did US government cuts contribute to the Texas tragedy? "They're used to doing a lot with so little already," said the volunteer, who asked for anonymity because he feared retaliation. "But I do think that they might not be publicly saying anything, they would probably love to have those people back." The volunteer pointed to one notable exit: Paul Yura, a warning coordination meteorologist who took the Trump administration's early retirement offer in April, according to local media. The role is a vital weather service and community liaison, coordinating with local emergency responders and volunteers to help prepare for severe weather. "He was our mentor, he was our guy we would talk to," the volunteer said, explaining that without Mr Yura, volunteers did not have a designated point person during emergencies. In June, the Trump administration said it would allow the NWS to hire more than 100 new positions despite the federal hiring freeze. More cuts are potentially on the way, however. NOAA has proposed cutting its budget by about $1.8bn for the 2026 fiscal year, according to a report it submitted to US Congress, and planned to reduce staff by about 17%, according to Federal News Network. The proposed budget states that, "NWS continues to produce operational forecasts, warnings, impact-based decision support services and other life-saving products and services to the emergency management community and public as they prepare for and respond to increasingly frequent severe weather and water events". Yet the proposal also "eliminates all funding for climate, weather, and ocean Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes" at NOAA. Mr Hazelton, who now works at the University of Miami, said it is essential for public safety that NOAA continues to invest in research into more accurate weather and climate models. For example, higher resolution weather models predicted extreme pockets of rainfall in Texas ahead of the storms – but pinpointing location and timing on such events is notoriously difficult. Questions have swirled in the wake of the disaster about how residents in the flood's path could have been warned faster. "That's why we need continued investment and research in NOAA, so we can predict these extreme events," Mr Hazelton said. He also emphasised the need to fully staff NWS offices so that meteorologists and scientists don't burn out, particularly during the US hurricane season. The prospect of future cuts also worries the NWS volunteer - who lives in a flood-prone area. "Mother Nature is a tricky deal. She'll do whatever she wants, and it's bad enough that you don't have that advantage to begin with. And now you're just tying their hands more." Texas floods death toll climbs to at least 107 'Hero' dad, twin girls and riverside campers among Texas flood victims What early warnings did flood-hit Texas receive?
BBC News
08-07-2025
- Climate
- BBC News
Texas storms put Trump's National Weather Service cuts in spotlight
Deadly storms over the 4 July holiday ravaged Texas' Hill Country with several months' worth of rain in a few hours, leaving behind mangled trees, swaths of deep mud and heartbreak over hundreds lost or also renewed focus on the US government's ability to warn and protect residents from weather intense rainfall and flash floods are the deadliest weather disaster in the US since President Donald Trump's administration conducted mass staff cuts at two key weather and climate agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organisation (NOAA) and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service (NWS).While experts say the National Weather Service issued alerts in a timely manner over the weekend, the deadly incident carries warnings about what could happen if the NWS and NOAA are not properly staffed and funded in the future."The Weather Service did a good job with the information you had here. I don't think the staffing cuts contributed to this," said Andy Hazelton, a climate scientist who was laid off from NOAA where he modelled hurricane paths. "But this is the kind of event we can see more of if the cuts to NOAA continue, if you make the models worse or have the staffing levels lower."The agency already has taken a significant February, the weather service has lost about 600 staff through a combination of firings, early retirements, and deferred resignations, said Tom Fahy, legislative director of the National Weather Service Employees cuts struck every corner of the agency, said Mr Fahy, from meteorologists to technical specialists to hydrologists, who specialise in flooding."We lost a full spectrum of the employees and the brainpower for the National Weather Services," he offices nationally are operating far below traditional staffing levels for meteorologists, Mr Fahy told the BBC. Typically, an NWS office has at least 13 such scientists on their staff, he said. Yet offices in Goodland, Kansas and Hanford, California each have a 61.5% vacancy rate for meteorologists, according to the NWSEO union data. The office in Amarillo, Texas, has a 30.77% vacancy rate for meteorologists, and Rapid City, South Dakota was at 46.15%."Staffing has to be increased, we have to do this across the country, we need more individuals to do this," Mr Fahy said. "You can't run a weather forecast office on a bare bones operation. Too many things are at stake, too many lives at are at stake."The San Antonio office, which played a leading role in forecasting last week's deadly rainstorms, has about an 18% vacancy rate, according to a tally of open roles on its it had "additional forecasters on duty during the catastrophic flooding event", NWS spokeswoman Erica Grow Cei said in a staffing would not immediately spell disaster anyhow, according to a volunteer who works with the San Antonio weather office to disseminate alerts in his community."They're used to doing a lot with so little already," said the volunteer, who asked for anonymity because he feared retaliation. "But I do think that they might not be publicly saying anything, they would probably love to have those people back."The volunteer pointed to one notable exit: Paul Yura, a warning coordination meteorologist who took the Trump administration's early retirement offer in April, according to local role is a vital weather service and community liaison, coordinating with local emergency responders and volunteers to help prepare for severe weather."He was our mentor, he was our guy we would talk to," the volunteer said, explaining that without Mr Yura, volunteers did not have a point person during emergencies like the 4 July June, the Trump administration said it would allow the NWS to hire more than 100 new positions despite the federal hiring cuts are potentially on the way, has proposed cutting its budget by about $1.8bn for the 2026 fiscal year, according to a report it submitted to US Congress, and planned to reduce staff by about 17%, according to Fed News. The proposed budget states that, "NWS continues to produce operational forecasts, warnings, impact-based decision support services and other life-saving products and services to the emergency management community and public as they prepare for and respond to increasingly frequent severe weather and water events".Yet the proposal also "eliminates all funding for climate, weather, and ocean Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes" at Hazelton, who now works at the University of Miami, said it is essential for public safety that NOAA continues to invest in research into more accurate weather and climate example, higher resolution weather models predicted extreme pockets of rainfall in Texas ahead of the storms – but pinpointing location and timing on such events is notoriously difficult. Questions have swirled in the wake of the disaster about how residents in the flood's path could have been warned faster."That's why we need continued investment and research in NOAA, so we can predict these extreme events," Mr Hazelton also emphasised the need to fully staff NWS offices so that meteorologists and scientists don't burn out, particularly during the US hurricane prospect of future cuts also worries the NWS volunteer - who lives in a flood-prone area."Mother Nature is a tricky deal. She'll do whatever she wants, and it's bad enough that you don't have that advantage to begin with. And now you're just tying their hands more."
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Season 2025: When the Internet storm is worse than the real thing
A leading weather model looked 10 days into the future in the waning days of May and forecast in angry swirls of reds and oranges a large hurricane hitting Florida on June 10, 2025. Meteorologists on social media cautioned about the lack of accuracy in forecasting something that far out and noted the storm-friendly bias of the GFS, or American Global Forecast System, that tends to be more aggressive early in the season in spinning up tropical cyclones. But some images of the 'fantasycane' made it onto social media, with one hurricane expert saying he saw a Facebook page with 250,000 followers that showed the storm hitting Florida. Other posts on X showed images of the storm on GFS without much context on why the model may be flawed. 'They just don't have the experience to know what is valid and what's not,' said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies. 'The data from NOAA is freely available and I think that's the best approach, but it does create some problems in the social media era.' The National Hurricane Center never identified what the GFS was seeing as an area of concern. June 10 came and went with no tropical storm or hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic basin. Social media evolved in the decade-long landfall lull between 2005's record-breaking hurricane season and 2016's Hurricane Hermine, which broke the respite when it reached Florida's big Bend region as a Category 1 storm. Hurricane season 2025: New forecast calls for above normal season but questions remain Emergency managers and meteorologists have learned to use the ever-expanding medium to reach the masses. They plead with people in hurricane-prone areas to follow official sources during storm season. That includes your local National Weather Service forecasting office, the National Hurricane Center, your county emergency manager, Florida's Emergency Response Team and your local TV meteorologist. 'Hurricane season has gotten too commercial and there are many bad actors out there trying to profit from scaring people,' said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist and president of the forecasting service WeatherTiger in a June 4 column. 'My philosophy is that reality is plenty frightening, which is why I don't talk about extreme, unrealistic scenarios like what the GFS has been showing.' Hazleton said the GFS model can have trouble during June and October — seasonal transition periods that bookend hurricane season. Early in the season, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms near Central America can get magnified by the GFS, which then combines that with spin coming off the Venezuelan mountains and produces 'essentially fake hurricanes.' It can also misdiagnose the strength of the Bermuda high, sending storms farther north than what really happens. Hazleton said he's also concerned about the amount of irrelevant or unnecessary information thrown at people online so that forecasts become white noise, making it hard for people to distinguish when a storm is a legitimate threat. More: Two decades later, 2004 is remembered as the 'mean season' as hurricanes shredded Florida Another debate that pops up every hurricane season is which track model, or spaghetti model, people should follow when a storm is approaching. Is the Euro better than the GFS this season? That was something lay people never dealt with before the Internet made them so widely available. Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross addressed the issue in a 2024 hurricane forum hosted by The Palm Beach Post. 'The bottom line is the National Hurricane Center forecast is better than any model,' Norcross said. 'The spaghetti models are decoration, but they don't give you the best information. The NHC gives you the best information.' Palm Beach County Emergency Management, @PBCDEM Palm Beach County School District, @PBCSD South Florida Water Management District, @SFWMD Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, @GOVERONDESANTIS Florida State Emergency Response Team, @FLSERT Florida Department of Transportation, @FL511_STATE National Weather Service Miami, @NWSMIAMI National Hurricane Center, @NHC_ATLANTIC National Hurricane Center Storm Surge, @NHC_SURGE National Hurricane Center social media sites: Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@ Help support our local journalism, subscribe today. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Follow official sources on social media during hurricane season
San Francisco Chronicle
17-06-2025
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
Tropical Storm Erick eyes Mexico as Pacific's first major hurricane of 2025
Tropical Storm Erick is quickly building south of Mexico and could make landfall to become the season's first major hurricane late Wednesday, forecasters warned Tuesday. As of Tuesday morning, the storm was situated about 300 miles southeast of Puerto Ángel, drifting west-northwest at 10 mph with top sustained winds of 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center said Erick may rapidly strengthen to Category 3 intensity as it moves over extremely warm ocean water overnight Tuesday before making landfall along the Mexican coastline late Wednesday or early Thursday. Rainfall totals of between 10 to 20 inches on steep terrain raise the risk of flash floods and mudslides, and a modest storm-surge push could inundate low-lying areas along the coast. A hurricane warning covers Puerto Ángel to Punta Maldonado, with a watch stretching west to Acapulco. Erick's arrival marks the fifth named storm of the 2025 season and the earliest 'E' storm on record for the eastern Pacific, beating 2017's Dora by roughly ten days. For comparison, the average fifth storm in the basin forms around July 23. The previous record-holder was set in 1956. Four other quick-spin storms— Alvin, Barbara, Cosme and Dalila—have already come and gone, with Barbara briefly reaching hurricane strength. Typically, the eastern Pacific sees just one or two named storms by mid-June, and the first hurricane doesn't arrive until late June. This year, the basin is nearly a month ahead of schedule. That's surprising given the larger background climate signals. A La Niña pattern and a cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which typically brings a cold pool of water to the northeastern Pacific and along the West Coast, usually acts to suppress storm activity in the Eastern Pacific. 'It's definitely a bit odd,' said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. 'You'd expect the East Pacific to be fairly quiet overall, but a couple of factors have helped it start fast.' Hazelton pointed to two key ingredients: a favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical disturbance that pulses across the globe every 30 to 60 days, and stronger-than-normal Atlantic trade winds, which have pushed moisture westward into the eastern Pacific, encouraging rising air and storm formation. He also flagged 1996 as a possible analog. That season saw an early burst of eastern Pacific storms, including a hurricane landfall in a similar location. But even then, Hazelton noted, '1996 had warmer water in the East Pacific than we see now, so it's definitely an oddity.' Of the now five named storms that have formed so far this season, only Tropical Storm Alvin brought impactful weather to the U.S., bringing heavy rainfall to the Southwest. Erick is not expected to have any impacts on California or the U.S. Like the four named storms before it, the system is forecast to dissipate well before reaching U.S. latitudes. So far, none of this season's activity has delivered any tangible effects to California. However, with sea-surface temperatures still running warm, upper-level winds staying relaxed and the tropics remaining active, more tropical activity is likely to develop over the next few weeks.
