Latest news with #AndyRivkin
Wales Online
12-06-2025
- Science
- Wales Online
NASA says there's higher chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon
NASA says there's higher chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon The asteroid was originally projected to hit Earth, but a moon strike is now more likely We now have a more accurate track on Asteroid YR4 An asteroid scientists feared would cause havoc by striking the Earth in the year 2032 now has an increased likelihood of hitting the Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth, but NASA's James Webb Space Telescope collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun. With the additional data, experts from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid's orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on 22 December 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit. When asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, the asteroid had a small chance of impacting Earth. After more observations, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. As additional data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve. An international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the observations using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make further observations when its orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth in 2028.
Daily Mirror
12-06-2025
- Science
- Daily Mirror
NASA astronomers say it's now 'more likely' asteroid YR4 could hit the Moon
It was initially feared the asteroid would hit Earth, but the odds of a moonstrike have now been increased An asteroid scientists feared would cause havoc by striking the Earth in the year 2032 now has an increased likelihood of hitting the Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth, but NASA's James Webb Space Telescope collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun. With the additional data, experts from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid's orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on 22 December 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit. When asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, the asteroid had a small chance of impacting Earth. After more observations, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. As additional data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve. An international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the observations using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make further observations when its orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth in 2028.
New York Post
11-06-2025
- Science
- New York Post
Odds of ‘city-killer' asteroid hitting the Moon go up again
A 'city-killer' asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Advertisement Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth. The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4. Advertisement 4 Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a slight chance of hitting the Moon in 2032. NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS 4 An animation showing the asteroid passing the Earth and heading too the Moon. AP JWST data, along with expert analysis from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid's orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%. In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%. Advertisement However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions. 4 The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS 4 The James Webb Telescope captured images of the asteroid in the darkness of space. NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Andy Rivkin (APL) Advertisement Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb's view for now.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
'City-Killer' Asteroid Even More Likely to Hit The Moon in 2032
An asteroid that burst onto the scene with an unusually high risk of striking Earth has just had its collision risk upgraded. In February 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4's maximum collision risk with our homeworld when it swoops back around in 2032 was projected to be 3.1 percent. Now its collision risk has risen to 4.3 percent – not with Earth, but the Moon. That's not particularly high, sure. But it's high enough to be pretty exciting. This impact wouldn't destroy the Moon or even affect its orbit; but it would be scientifically interesting to see the formation process of a large crater (and also really cool). 2024 YR4 announced itself with a bang. Initial calculations of its trajectory found that it could collide with Earth in December 2032. The risk wasn't huge, but 3.1 percent is still alarmingly high for an event that could wipe out a city – the chunk of rock measures between 53 and 67 meters (174 and 220 feet), comparable to the size of the asteroid that devastated Tunguska in 1908. Thankfully, it didn't take long for that risk to be downgraded to less than a fraction of a fraction of a percent, effectively ruling out the possibility of an Earth-2024 YR4 collision entirely. The Moon, however, remained in the firing line, with a collision risk of 3.8 percent. Now, using new JWST observations obtained in May 2025, astronomers led by Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory have refined that calculation, bumping the risk to 4.3 percent. That's probably still not the final word on the matter; tracing an asteroid's trajectory takes repeated observations, and 2024 YR4 is now too far away for us to see. It comes around close to Earth every four years, so astronomers are going to have another opportunity to observe it closely in December 2028. We'll know with more precision then how likely the chunk of space rock is to smack into our satellite and give us a wild show (and a bunch of science). The Center of Our Universe Does Not Exist. A Physicist Explains Why. Stunning Direct Images of Alien Worlds Are Detailed Enough to Reveal Clouds Stunning 'Solar Curtains' Phenomenon Revealed on The Sun in New Images
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
An asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Chances Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Will Hit Moon Increase But Earth Remains In The Clear In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth. The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4. JWST data, along with expert analysis from Nasa's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid's orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%. In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%. However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions. Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb's view for article source: Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
