Latest news with #AnilBhansali
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trade deal developments to drive Indian rupee; bond yields to track Treasuries
By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) -Indian rupee traders will monitor trade talks with the U.S. this week, ahead of a July 9 deadline for making deals with the world's largest economy, while government bond yields will likely be range-bound with focus on movement in Treasury yields. The rupee closed at 85.3925 on Friday, with little change over the week. Traders reckon that a U.S.-India trade agreement would be a boost for the South Asian country, but it is unlikely to spark a sharp rally. "If the treaty happens, the rupee may see some more upside while the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) may not be very comfortable with a fast appreciation of the rupee," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisor. He pegged the near-term resistance for the local currency at around 85. The rupee's very near-term implied volatility has remained muted despite the uncertainty, reflecting market expectations of a range-bound movement. The U.S. is close to clinching several trade deals ahead of the July 9 deadline, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday. Meanwhile, data released on Friday showed that India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $702.8 billion, as of June 27, in touching distance of an all-time high hit last year. The dollar continues to trend downwards, with scaled-back wagers on rate cuts by the Fed prompting only fleeting gains last week. U.S. consumer inflation data due on Tuesday, followed by retail sales data on Thursday, will also be in focus to gauge the future path of benchmark policy rates. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield ended at 6.2947% on Friday, barely changed for the week. Traders expect it to move in a range of 6.28% to 6.33% this week. Bond market participants would remain focused on the movement in U.S. Treasury yields this week, especially after strong jobs data reduced hopes for Fed rate cuts. "Tariffs and other geopolitical uncertainties may contribute to market volatility in the short term, but taking into consideration the modest growth expectations, with the current trend of inflation, there may be scope for monetary easing," said Parijat Agrawal, head of fixed income at Union Asset Management. Traders will also watch whether the recent surge in foreign inflows into Indian bonds continues, with investors having net bought over $1 billion of government bonds last week. Also on the radar is the RBI's next move, after it did not raise the quantum of liquidity withdrawal from the banking system despite surplus hitting a three-year high on Friday. The central bank's gradual approach for variable rate reverse repos (VRRRs) is likely to keep the overnight interbank lending rates between the policy repo rate and the floor of the corridor, allowing some policy transmission, traders said. KEY EVENTS: ** U.S. initial weekly jobless claims for week to June 30 - July 10, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST)
Time of India
04-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rupee gains 39 paise on likely US trade deal, dollar sales
Mumbai: The Indian rupee touched its strongest level in a month on Thursday, amid increasing optimism that the India-US trade deal would happen in the next 48 hours and also owing to dollar sales from foreign banks , traders said. The rupee closed 39 paisa stronger at 85.31 per dollar, up from its previous close of 85.70 to $1, LSEG data showed. The rupee had appreciated to 85.18 to $1 during the day, its best level since late May, but likely intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) capped excess appreciation in the currency. Asian currencies mostly rose, while the dollar index remained steady at 96.8, ahead of US non-farm payroll data for cues on the future path of the Federal Reserve policy rates. "Once the rupee appreciated past 85.45 to $1 levels, stop losses were triggered for many institutions, aiding the rupee. Foreign inflows were also seen on Thursday," a trader from a private sector bank said on condition of anonymity. The rupee traded in the range of 85.64 and 85.18 to $1 on Thursday. "Positive sentiments on trade deal allowed rupee to trade up to 85.18 to $1, where RBI likely bought dollars, taking the currency towards 85.35 to $1 levels. Today (on Thursday) the market was heavily long on the rupee," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Live Events A trade deal with India could strengthen the rupee around 85 to $1 levels, but further appreciation would depend on intervention by the RBI, traders said. Market participants expect the rupee to trade within the range of 85 and 85.50 on Friday. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Indian rupee range-bound despite weaker US dollar, set to trail most Asian peers: Reuters poll
By Pranoy Krishna BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Indian rupee will trade in a narrow range over the next six months as global risk-off sentiment slows capital inflows to a trickle, potentially offsetting gains from a weaker U.S. dollar, a Reuters poll of FX analysts showed. Despite the dollar index falling nearly 11% so far this year, the rupee has remained largely stable. The Reserve Bank of India has been shoring up its reserves to near record levels to limit volatility and to meet dollar obligations when needed. Foreign portfolio investors have been net sellers of Indian assets this year. Most strategists in the June 30–July 2 Reuters poll said they did not expect the rupee to make any meaningful gains. This comes even as global investors sell American assets over concerns rising debt levels in the world's largest economy are unsustainable in the long run. In three months the rupee is forecast to be down around 0.1% from current levels at 85.75 per dollar. It is then expected to trade at 85.50 in six months and weaken marginally to 86.13 in a year, according to the median forecast of 41 FX strategists. "The overall trend for USD/INR should be downward, with the Fed cutting rates, the dollar index falling and possibly a breakthrough on the U.S. trade deal in the coming days," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. "It's going to be a slow and steady journey for the rupee because the RBI is currently buying dollars to meet its liabilities." U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday a trade deal could be reached with India. The rupee has been a laggard compared to most regional peers, down around 0.1% for the year. The Korean won, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar have gained more than 5%. However, the RBI's recent policy stance shift to "neutral," signalling the end of its brief rate-cutting cycle, may help underpin the currency. "(Given) better growth prospects, with a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus being front-loaded and the expectation India might end up benefiting on the trade front compared to peers, there is a case for the rupee to somewhat appreciate from where we are today," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. (Other stories from the July foreign exchange poll)
Reuters
02-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Indian rupee range-bound despite weaker US dollar, set to trail most Asian peers: Reuters poll
BENGALURU, July 2 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee will trade in a narrow range over the next six months as global risk-off sentiment slows capital inflows to a trickle, potentially offsetting gains from a weaker U.S. dollar, a Reuters poll of FX analysts showed. Despite the dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab falling nearly 11% so far this year, the rupee has remained largely stable. The Reserve Bank of India has been shoring up its reserves to near record levels to limit volatility and to meet dollar obligations when needed. Foreign portfolio investors have been net sellers of Indian assets this year. Most strategists in the June 30–July 2 Reuters poll said they did not expect the rupee to make any meaningful gains. This comes even as global investors sell American assets over concerns rising debt levels in the world's largest economy are unsustainable in the long run. In three months the rupee is forecast to be down around 0.1% from current levels at 85.75 per dollar. It is then expected to trade at 85.50 in six months and weaken marginally to 86.13 in a year, according to the median forecast of 41 FX strategists. "The overall trend for USD/INR should be downward, with the Fed cutting rates, the dollar index falling and possibly a breakthrough on the U.S. trade deal in the coming days," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. "It's going to be a slow and steady journey for the rupee because the RBI is currently buying dollars to meet its liabilities." U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday a trade deal could be reached with India. The rupee has been a laggard compared to most regional peers, down around 0.1% for the year. The Korean won, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar have gained more than 5%. However, the RBI's recent policy stance shift to "neutral," signalling the end of its brief rate-cutting cycle, may help underpin the currency. "(Given) better growth prospects, with a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus being front-loaded and the expectation India might end up benefiting on the trade front compared to peers, there is a case for the rupee to somewhat appreciate from where we are today," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. (Other stories from the July foreign exchange poll)
Time of India
01-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Strong dollar demand by banks weakens rupee by 28 paise
The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened by purchasing dollars via state run banks, traders said. The rupee traded in a range of 85.44/$1 to 85.78/$1, LSEG data showed. (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: The Indian rupee weakened 28 paise to 85.75 per dollar on Monday due to strong dollar demand by both foreign and domestic banks , even as other Asian currencies strengthened amid a weaker dollar index. The domestic unit had previously closed at 85.47/$ Reserve Bank of India likely intervened by purchasing dollars via state run banks, traders said. The rupee traded in a range of 85.44/$1 to 85.78/$1, LSEG data index was trading near its 3-year low at 97.1. "There was dollar buying by nationalised banks, likely on behalf of RBI. Oil companies and importer dollar demand also kept the rupee in a small range," said Anil Bhansali, head-treasury, Finrex Treasury Asian currencies such as the Taiwan dollar and Korean won have risen about nearly 13% and 8% year-to-date, respectively, while the Chinese yuan-a closely tracked peer of the rupee, is up over 2%, LSEG data showed.
