Latest news with #AnkurBanerjee
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
MORNING BID EUROPE-Europe Inc braces for pain from a sturdy euro
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee The incredible rise of the euro this year is sure to play a part in Europe Inc's performance as a steady but unspectacular start to the earnings season kicks up a notch with results due from the region's largest software maker SAP. While tariff uncertainties linger ahead of an August 1 deadline, investors are pinning their hopes on resilient corporate earnings from Wall Street and European bellwethers to keep stocks and sentiment aloft. Investors will parse through quarterly results for any clues on the impact trade uncertainty has had on profitability and consumer demand, with the earnings so far described by RBC Capital Markets as "fine but not fabulous". SAP, which has been riding a boom in demand for its cloud-based offerings spurred by artificial intelligence, will report later on Tuesday as will UniCredit and Julius Baer. Focus will be on just how much the euro's rise has eaten into profits of the firms in the bloc's export-reliant economy after the single currency surged 9% in the April-June quarter. The euro is up 13% so far in the year as investors looked for alternatives to U.S. assets and to lower their dollar exposure in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies. SAP had predicted back in April that for every 1 cent rise in the euro, its annual revenue could decline by around 30 million euros. The euro was last at $1.1688 compared to $1.1329 at the end of April. Earnings from luxury behemoth LVMH and drugmaker Roche this week will also be of interest. Tariffs and where they are headed remain on the agenda after diplomats said the EU is exploring wide-ranging "anti-coercion" measures which would let the bloc target U.S. services or curb access to public tenders in the absence of a deal. Trump has threatened 30% duties on imports from Europe if no agreement is signed before the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, the 'will-he-won't-he' saga over Trump possibly firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rumbles on. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the entire Federal Reserve needed to be examined as an institution and whether it had been successful, further exacerbating worries about the independence of the U.S. central bank. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: Earnings: SAP, UniCredit, Julius Baer Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. (Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Asian stocks firm as investors look to tariff negotiations, earnings
By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian share markets held their ground near a four-year peak on Tuesday, buoyed by Wall Street's closing record high ahead of a slate of corporate earnings while investors took stock of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners. The Japanese markets returned to action after a holiday in the previous session following the weekend's election where the ruling coalition suffered a defeat in upper house elections, although Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to remain in his post. Japanese shares briefly jumped at the open before trading modestly higher, while bonds had a muted reaction as the election results were largely priced in and were not as bad as investors had feared. The yen rallied 1% on Monday, recouping some of the losses from past weeks and was last little changed at 147.46 per dollar on Tuesday. Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the weakening of Ishiba's leadership will open the door to more fiscal expansion which is negative for Japanese assets, including the yen. "The bottom line is longer term Japanese government bond yields and JPY can fall if concerns about Japan's fiscal spending deepen." MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit its highest level since October 2021 in early Asian hours but was last little changed. The index is up nearly 16% this year. Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched record-high closes on Monday, lifted by Alphabet and other megacaps ahead of a burst of earnings reports this week. Investor focus has been on tariff negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline with the European Union exploring a broader set of possible countermeasures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable agreement with Washington fade. The most important deals for the global outlook are with the EU and Japan, CBA's Clifton said. "The USD reaction to the announcement of trade deals with these countries would depend on the details of the deals in our view," Clifton said, noting the dollar could turn down again against the euro and the British pound. The euro was steady at $1.1689, after rising 0.5% in the previous session but still away from the near four-year high it touched at the start of the month. The single currency is up 13% this year as investors look for alternatives to U.S. assets bruised by tariff uncertainties. The dollar index measure against six other key currencies was at 97.905. [FRX/] The rumblings around the Federal Reserve's independence and whether U.S. President Donald Trump will fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell have kept investors on tenterhooks in recent weeks. Trump appeared near the point of trying to fire Powell last week, but backed off with a nod to the market disruption that would likely follow. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the entire Federal Reserve needed to be examined as an institution and whether it had been successful, further exacerbating worries about the independence of the U.S. central bank. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in its July meeting but might lower rates later in the year. Market focus will be squarely on Powell's speech later on Tuesday for clues about when the Fed might ease policy. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts starting in September, "provided inflation expectations remain in check amidst worries about Fed independence." In commodities, oil prices edged lower on concerns that the brewing trade war between major crude consumers the U.S. and the European Union will curb fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 0.35%, to $68.97 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased 0.31% to $66.99 per barrel. [O/R]
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Asian stocks firm as investors look to tariff negotiations, earnings
By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian share markets held their ground near a four-year peak on Tuesday, buoyed by Wall Street's closing record high ahead of a slate of corporate earnings while investors took stock of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners. The Japanese markets returned to action after a holiday in the previous session following the weekend's election where the ruling coalition suffered a defeat in upper house elections, although Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to remain in his post. Japanese shares briefly jumped at the open before trading modestly higher, while bonds had a muted reaction as the election results were largely priced in and were not as bad as investors had feared. The yen rallied 1% on Monday, recouping some of the losses from past weeks and was last little changed at 147.46 per dollar on Tuesday. Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the weakening of Ishiba's leadership will open the door to more fiscal expansion which is negative for Japanese assets, including the yen. "The bottom line is longer term Japanese government bond yields and JPY can fall if concerns about Japan's fiscal spending deepen." MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit its highest level since October 2021 in early Asian hours but was last little changed. The index is up nearly 16% this year. Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched record-high closes on Monday, lifted by Alphabet and other megacaps ahead of a burst of earnings reports this week. Investor focus has been on tariff negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline with the European Union exploring a broader set of possible countermeasures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable agreement with Washington fade. The most important deals for the global outlook are with the EU and Japan, CBA's Clifton said. "The USD reaction to the announcement of trade deals with these countries would depend on the details of the deals in our view," Clifton said, noting the dollar could turn down again against the euro and the British pound. The euro was steady at $1.1689, after rising 0.5% in the previous session but still away from the near four-year high it touched at the start of the month. The single currency is up 13% this year as investors look for alternatives to U.S. assets bruised by tariff uncertainties. The dollar index measure against six other key currencies was at 97.905. [FRX/] The rumblings around the Federal Reserve's independence and whether U.S. President Donald Trump will fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell have kept investors on tenterhooks in recent weeks. Trump appeared near the point of trying to fire Powell last week, but backed off with a nod to the market disruption that would likely follow. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the entire Federal Reserve needed to be examined as an institution and whether it had been successful, further exacerbating worries about the independence of the U.S. central bank. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in its July meeting but might lower rates later in the year. Market focus will be squarely on Powell's speech later on Tuesday for clues about when the Fed might ease policy. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts starting in September, "provided inflation expectations remain in check amidst worries about Fed independence." In commodities, oil prices edged lower on concerns that the brewing trade war between major crude consumers the U.S. and the European Union will curb fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 0.35%, to $68.97 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased 0.31% to $66.99 per barrel. [O/R] Sign in to access your portfolio
Mint
19-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Dollar firms as Mideast worries cast shadow, Norges Bank delivers surprise cut
By Ankur Banerjee and Lucy Raitano SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar held mostly steady on Thursday as the threat of a broader Middle East conflict loomed over markets, while a flurry of central bank decisions including a surprise cut from Norway kept traders busy. Rapidly rising geopolitical tensions have boosted the dollar, which has reclaimed its safe-haven status in recent days. Iran and Israel carried out further air attacks on Thursday, with the conflict entering its seventh day. Concerns over potential U.S. involvement have also grown, as President Donald Trump kept the world guessing about whether the United States will join Israel's bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites. The Federal Reserve left rates steady on Wednesday, and now traders are counting down to a Bank of England (BoE) meeting due later in the day, with bets on no change to the base rate. The Swiss franc, meanwhile, was stronger against the dollar following an expected rate cut from the Swiss National Bank. But the surprise came from the Norges Bank, which delivered a 25 bps rate cut, while markets had expected the Norwegian central bank to hold rates. The dollar and the euro both surged against the Norwegian crown, and were last up 0.7% and 0.6% . The crown is still one of the top-performing major currencies against the dollar this year, with a gain of around 11%. Meanwhile, the euro was 0.1% weaker at $1.147. The yen last fetched 145.28 per dollar. The Swiss franc strengthened after the SNB avoided delivering a larger half-point cut. By 0930 GMT, the dollar was 0.4% down against the Swiss franc fetching 0.8157 francs, while the euro fell 0.3% to 0.9369. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six others, was flat at 98.9 and was set for about a 0.8% gain for the week, its strongest weekly performance since late February. Some analysts said investors were looking to cover their short-dollar positions. "The dollar seems ripe for a short-covering rally - especially if the U.S. wades into the Middle East conflict," said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index. Geopolitical concerns appear to have overshadowed the FOMC outcome, according to Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC. "Risk aversion dominates sentiments, and that puts pressure on risk-sensitive FX." U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the federal Juneteenth holiday, which could mean liquidity is lower. FED STANDS PAT In a widely expected move, the Fed held rates steady, with policymakers signalling they still expect to cut rates by half a percentage point this year, although not all of them agreed on a need for rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said goods price inflation will pick up over the course of the summer as Trump's tariffs start to impact consumers. "Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer," Powell told a press conference on Wednesday. "We know that because that's what businesses say. That's what the data say from the past." The comments from Powell underscore the challenge facing policymakers as they navigate uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical risks, leaving markets anxious about the path of U.S. interest rates. Still, traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts this year though analysts are unsure of the starting point. "The market is anticipating two 25 bp rate cuts this year, most probably September and December, but, we think the September FOMC will come too soon for the Fed to be comfortable cutting rates," ING economists said in a note. The Australian dollar fell 0.6% at $0.647, while the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.8% to $0.647.
Daily Maverick
12-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Stocks slip, dollar droops as trade, geopolitical tensions weigh
Rising Middle East tension dents sentiment, lift oil, gold Markets give lukewarm reception to US-China truce agreement Trump's latest tariff salvo unnerves investors Soft US CPI sets stage for Fed meeting next week By Ankur Banerjee and Johann M Cherian SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) – Global stocks and the dollar slipped on Thursday as investors sized up a benign US inflation report and the fragile trade truce between Washington and Beijing, while rising tensions in the Middle East and lingering tariff anxiety dented risk sentiment. Attention in financial markets this week has been on the US-China trade talks which culminated in a framework agreement that would remove Chinese export restrictions on rare earth minerals and allow Chinese students access to US universities. 'We made a great deal with China. We're very happy with it,' said US President Donald Trump. Markets though were guarded in their response, awaiting fuller, concrete details of the agreement and remained wary of another flare up. Trump also said the US would send out letters in one to two weeks outlining the terms of trade deals to dozens of other countries, which they could embrace or reject, adding yet another dose of uncertainty in the markets. 'The US China deal really just leaves the tariffs in place after they've been cut back following the Geneva meeting, so it doesn't really change things,' said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital. 'Ultimately the trade tension is yet to be resolved between the US and China.' MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.3% lower in early trading after hitting a three year-high on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.7%, while US and European stock futures fell. China's blue-chip stock index fell 0.37%, moving off the near three-week top it touched in the previous session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 0.74%, also inching away from Wednesday's three-month high. Trump's erratic tariff policies have roiled global markets this year, prompting hordes of investors to exit USassets, especially the dollar, as they worried about rising prices and slowing economic growth. The euro, one of the beneficiaries of the dollar's decline, rose to a seven-week high and was last at $1.1512. The Japanese yen was 0.4% firmer at 144.03 per dollar. That pushed the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other key rivals, to its lowest level since April 22. The index is down 9% this year. Data on Wednesday showed US consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs. The soft inflation report led Trump to renew his call for the Federal Reserve to push through a major rate cut. The president has been pressing for rate cuts for some time even as Fed officials have shrugged off his comments. Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed policy rate by September. Policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged next week. AMP's Oliver said the higher prices will flow through either in the form of higher inflation or lower profit margins. 'I suspect it's probably going to be a combination of the two. Therefore it makes sense for the Fed to wait and see what happens rather than rushing into a rate cut.' In commodities, oil prices were pinned at two-month highs, close to $70 a barrel, on worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East after Iran said it will strike US bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and conflict arises with Washington. O/R Gold prices also got a boost from safe-haven flows, with spot gold up 0.5% at $3,370.29.
