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Economic Times
03-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India to benefit from global manufacturing shift as China+1 strategy gains momentum: Ankur Jhaveri
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Ankur Jhaveri , MD & CEO of JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd., highlights how India stands to benefit from the evolving global manufacturing landscape, driven by the China+1 global companies look to diversify supply chains away from China, Jhaveri believes this structural shift presents a multi-year opportunity for also shares insights on key macro risks, sectoral valuations, policy expectations, and why rural consumption and domestic manufacturing are likely to be the twin growth engines in the coming quarters. Edited Excerpts –A) There has been a series of events in June that got investors glued on to emerging geopolitical dynamics. June has certainly been more nervous compared to May and immediate investment strategies seems to be rather said that it's not only geopolitical situation but also an expression of recent earning season that has impacted market volatility. Corporate commentary by large has been cautions, which has forced investors to re-calibrate their earning projects and multiples.A) Global environment continues to remain fluid since the change of US President. Tariffs, Monetary policy reaction, and geopolitical conflicts are driving market sentiments forward unfolding geopolitical events and finalisation of trade deals would be the key monitorable events from the market policy flip flops or further postponement of the tariff deadline would be negative for the US Dollar and hence should attract flows towards Emerging Markets.A) Global manufacturing is undergoing a shift, and the recent policy actions be it fiscal or monetary are all targeted towards benefiting the domestic manufacturing players have been diversifying their manufacturing capacities away from China, although other countries would also benefit from this shift, India too stands to gain. This is a multiyear theme and companies in the manufacturing supply chain will be the in the immediate near term we see that the conditions are aligned in favour of consumption. Easy monetary policy, Favourable weather conditions - onset of La-Nina condition and Fiscal measures like recent Tax exemption would all improve consumption demand in the domestic economy - especially rural.A) Geopolitical conflicts seem to be broadening with every passing day, its impact on crude oil depends on the incremental steps taken by these countries in be specific, the entry of US in the Iran-Israel conflict complicates the issue further, the extent of retaliation by Iran will have serious implications on Crude oil price. Brent crude price is already up 22.9% in June, Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz would further fuel the imports form one fourth of India's total imports and out of 5.5 Mn Barrels per day (bpd) imports of crude oil currently, 2 Mn bpd is sourced through the Strait of its impact could be cushioned meaningfully if crude oil imports are diversified from Russia, which does not use this corridor to supply oil. We believe that proactive monetary and fiscal policies should support growth in the current fiscal, hence 6.5% growth seems achievable which should reflect in corporate earnings as well.A) Banks provide margin of safety on the valuation front, while other sectors appear to be fully priced or trade above the historical valuation should not be the only criteria in an investment decision, considering the global uncertainty in which these businesses are believe bottom up approach would be suitable in current macro environment, companies with decent earnings visibility trading at reasonable valuation would be preferred.A)It is worth highlighting that the comfortable inflation trajectory has allowed the global central banks to ease policy rates. However, it is the tariffs and the related disruption which would decide the inflation path going forward, especially in the US.A) The domestic inflation trajectory is expected to remain comfortable in the near term, which would allow the RBI to focus on growth, the governor indicated that the central bank is targeting a potential growth rate of 8%.Moreover, Governor Malhotra recently hinted that if the inflation outlook turns out to be below RBI's projection, it will open up more room for policy according to us is preparing the markets for more policy easing, however at this juncture we believe that the space for incremental policy easing if any would be restricted to the recent front-loading of rate cuts, we believe that RBI intended to deliver a positive shock to the economy which would eventually fasten the rate transmission, the advance announcement of the CRR cut was to cushion the Banking NIMs to some believe that a pickup in consumption is imminent once global shock settles and impact would be visible with a lag of a quarter or two.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)


Time of India
03-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India to benefit from global manufacturing shift as China+1 strategy gains momentum: Ankur Jhaveri
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Ankur Jhaveri , MD & CEO of JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd., highlights how India stands to benefit from the evolving global manufacturing landscape, driven by the China+1 global companies look to diversify supply chains away from China, Jhaveri believes this structural shift presents a multi-year opportunity for also shares insights on key macro risks, sectoral valuations, policy expectations, and why rural consumption and domestic manufacturing are likely to be the twin growth engines in the coming quarters. Edited Excerpts –A) There has been a series of events in June that got investors glued on to emerging geopolitical dynamics. June has certainly been more nervous compared to May and immediate investment strategies seems to be rather said that it's not only geopolitical situation but also an expression of recent earning season that has impacted market volatility. Corporate commentary by large has been cautions, which has forced investors to re-calibrate their earning projects and multiples.A) Global environment continues to remain fluid since the change of US President. Tariffs, Monetary policy reaction, and geopolitical conflicts are driving market sentiments forward unfolding geopolitical events and finalisation of trade deals would be the key monitorable events from the market policy flip flops or further postponement of the tariff deadline would be negative for the US Dollar and hence should attract flows towards Emerging Markets.A) Global manufacturing is undergoing a shift, and the recent policy actions be it fiscal or monetary are all targeted towards benefiting the domestic manufacturing players have been diversifying their manufacturing capacities away from China, although other countries would also benefit from this shift, India too stands to gain. This is a multiyear theme and companies in the manufacturing supply chain will be the in the immediate near term we see that the conditions are aligned in favour of consumption. Easy monetary policy, Favourable weather conditions - onset of La-Nina condition and Fiscal measures like recent Tax exemption would all improve consumption demand in the domestic economy - especially rural.A) Geopolitical conflicts seem to be broadening with every passing day, its impact on crude oil depends on the incremental steps taken by these countries in be specific, the entry of US in the Iran-Israel conflict complicates the issue further, the extent of retaliation by Iran will have serious implications on Crude oil price. Brent crude price is already up 22.9% in June, Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz would further fuel the imports form one fourth of India's total imports and out of 5.5 Mn Barrels per day (bpd) imports of crude oil currently, 2 Mn bpd is sourced through the Strait of its impact could be cushioned meaningfully if crude oil imports are diversified from Russia, which does not use this corridor to supply oil. We believe that proactive monetary and fiscal policies should support growth in the current fiscal, hence 6.5% growth seems achievable which should reflect in corporate earnings as well.A) Banks provide margin of safety on the valuation front, while other sectors appear to be fully priced or trade above the historical valuation should not be the only criteria in an investment decision, considering the global uncertainty in which these businesses are believe bottom up approach would be suitable in current macro environment, companies with decent earnings visibility trading at reasonable valuation would be preferred.A)It is worth highlighting that the comfortable inflation trajectory has allowed the global central banks to ease policy rates. However, it is the tariffs and the related disruption which would decide the inflation path going forward, especially in the US.A) The domestic inflation trajectory is expected to remain comfortable in the near term, which would allow the RBI to focus on growth, the governor indicated that the central bank is targeting a potential growth rate of 8%.Moreover, Governor Malhotra recently hinted that if the inflation outlook turns out to be below RBI's projection, it will open up more room for policy according to us is preparing the markets for more policy easing, however at this juncture we believe that the space for incremental policy easing if any would be restricted to the recent front-loading of rate cuts, we believe that RBI intended to deliver a positive shock to the economy which would eventually fasten the rate transmission, the advance announcement of the CRR cut was to cushion the Banking NIMs to some believe that a pickup in consumption is imminent once global shock settles and impact would be visible with a lag of a quarter or two.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)


India Today
12-06-2025
- Business
- India Today
Mumbai man says raising a child costs Rs 13 lakh annually, post sparks debate
A conversation with a cousin prompted a Mumbai-based man to do some serious number-crunching and the results have triggered a debate among working professionals a post on LinkedIn, Ankur Jhaveri detailed the financial realities of raising a child in urban India, particularly if parents opt for premium education.'I never realised the real cost of raising kids in India, until I met my cousin last week, who is a teacher at an international school,' Jhaveri said as he did the math for LinkedIn The tuition fees for a typical international school, as per Jhaveri, hover around Rs 7–9 lakh a year. This doesn't include essentials such as books, uniforms, and private tuition, which could add another Rs 2–4 lakh annually. Then, extracurriculars, clothing, and birthday parties push the annual expenditure to approximately Rs 13 lakh per conclusion that Jhaveri, thus, arrived at is that parents would need a gross annual salary of Rs 55–60 lakh to comfortably raise just one child in a metro like Mumbai with international schooling and basic extracurricular activities.'If you're spending about 30% of your income on your child, then your net salary should be around Rs 43–44 lakh,' Jhaveri said. Factor in taxes, and the gross salary requirement goes up to Rs 55–60 lakh to sustain this lifestyle for a single this is if you have one kid. Have another one, and these numbers increase substantially. I always used to wonder why people these days don't want to have kids. Now I know why,' he a look at the post here: In the comments section, social media users shared their personal experiences and concerns.'Education has become expensive across most schools. The sad part is the year-on-year cost increase is double the inflation. It reminds me of a movie that talks about how Indian parents will go to any extent - debt, what not - to educate their children,' a user user questioned the value of expensive schooling that also requires additional coaching: 'If a school charges Rs 7-9 lakh a year and the overall cost touches Rs 12–13 lakh, but the child still needs tuition right from the start-even before competitive exams begin-then the school is not worth it, and the child is being unnecessarily pressurised.'advertisementAnother user wrote about an even more daunting road ahead: 'This is the present cost. What about the future cost of a professional degree, especially abroad? You'll need to save this same amount yearly for the next 10 years. In a single-income household in a metro city, that means zero retirement savings.'Ankur Jhaveri also responded to critics who argued that ICSE or CBSE schools are more affordable. He acknowledged the difference but added that several parents nowadays face tremendous pressure to secure "the best" for their children - especially amid the rising competition and FOMO-driven parenting InMust Watch


NDTV
11-06-2025
- Business
- NDTV
"Rs 13 Lakh A Year": Mumbai Man Highlights High Cost Of Raising A Child, Sparks Debate
A LinkedIn post by a Mumbai-based man has caught widespread attention for highlighting just how expensive it has become to raise a child in urban India. In his post, Ankur Jhaveri calculated the cost of raising a child in a metropolitan city after having a conversation with his cousin, who teaches at an international school. "I never realised the real cost of raising kids in India, until I met my cousin last week," he wrote in his post, before offering a glimpse into the staggering numbers involved. According to Mr Jhaveri's breakdown, just the tuition fee at a reputed international school could set parents back by anywhere between Rs 7 to Rs 9 lakh a year. That, he said, was just the beginning. "Add to it the cost of uniforms, books, private tuitions and other stuff - another 2 to 4 lakhs a year," he added, bringing the total education-related expense to roughly Rs 12 lakh a year. Then, Mr Jhaveri also factored in a few other expenses. "Add to it some additional coaching/extra-curricular activities, clothes, birthday parties, leisure expenses, etc., at Rs 8000-10,000/month (Rs 1 lakh a year)," he wrote. Altogether, he estimated the yearly spend at roughly Rs 13 lakh per child. Mr Jhaveri then calculated that if a parent spends roughly 30% of their income on their child, the net salary needs to be around Rs 43-44 lakh per year. And when you include taxes, the figure goes up further. "But abhi baaki hai mere dost... The fun part is still left - Income Tax! Assuming you pay 20% of your salary as tax... your gross salary, to afford this lifestyle for your kids, should be about Rs 55 lakhs," he wrote. It doesn't end here. "This is if you have ONE kid," he pointed out. "Have another one, and these numbers increase substantially," he said. In the conclusion, Mr Jhaveri wrote, "I always used to wonder why people these days don't want to have kids. Now I know why..." He also acknowledged that his figures were a rough estimate and invited input from parents: "Those of you who actually have kids, please tell me what else I'm missing (I'm sure there's something)." Predictably, the post has sparked a debate online. While some parents agreed with Mr Jhaveri, others argued that such expenses only applied to those aiming for premium education in metro cities. "This is present cost. What about the future cost of any professional degree or course, especially if planning abroad?" wrote one user. "I guess the real problem that needs to be solved first is not the high cost of Education..... It's FOMO," commented another. However, disagreeing with Mr Jhaveri, one user said, "I would tag these schools as "branded" schools. My school fees was less than Rs 15k a year, i believe it has not touched the lakh figure yet. So choosing good school vs branded one is more important." "I am shortlisting schools... and you get decent ones within a lakh to Rs 1.5/yr all inclusive," arguing that the estimate seems skewed by considering only top-tier schools," commented another.


Indian Express
11-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
‘Rs 13 lakh a year per child': Linkedin post sparks debate on soaring cost of raising kids in urban India
Raising children has never been cheap, but in urban India today, the cost is becoming a financial mountain few feel fully prepared for. Raising children has never been easy on the wallet, but in urban India today, it's becoming a financial mountain. People often assume child-free couples are loaded with disposable income, but the truth is, many of them choose not to have kids because they simply can't afford to. Of course, not always, but often enough. A recent LinkedIn post by Mumbai-based professional Ankur Jhaveri has reignited the conversation about just how expensive parenthood can be. His calculation, based on a chat with his cousin – a teacher at an international school – offered a glimpse into the staggering numbers involved. 'I never realised the real cost of raising kids in India, until I met my cousin last week, who is a teacher at an international school,' Jhaveri wrote. According to his breakdown, just the tuition fee at a reputed international school could set parents back by anywhere between Rs 7 to Rs 9 lakh a year. And that's before you even get to the 'extras' – uniforms, books, and tuition classes, which could easily push the annual education cost to around Rs 12 lakh. But education is only part of the story. Jhaveri said, 'Now, add to it some additional coaching/extra-curricular activities, clothes, birthday parties, leisure expenses, etc., at Rs 8000-10,000/month (Rs 1 lakh a year).' Altogether, he estimated the yearly spend at roughly Rs 13 lakh per child. What does that translate to in terms of income? 'Assuming you would spend about 30% of your income on your kids – this means your net salary should be about Rs 43-44 lakhs,' he calculated. 'The fun part is still left – Income Tax! Assuming you pay 20% of your salary as tax (blended), this means your gross salary, to afford this lifestyle for your kids, should be about Rs 55 lakhs.' It doesn't end there. 'This is if you have ONE kid,' Jhaveri pointed out. 'Have another one, and these numbers increase substantially.' Of course, Jhaveri made it clear that his math isn't flawless: 'Those of you who actually have kids, please tell me what else I'm missing (I'm sure there's something).' Predictably, the post set off a lively debate. Some parents nodded in agreement, saying his numbers weren't far off from reality. Others argued that such expenses only applied to those aiming for premium education in metro cities. Anticipating this, Jhaveri noted, 'Some folks are commenting, saying ICSE schools charge less. My point here is two-fold: 1) Most parents (at least here on LinkedIn) would want the best education for their kids… 2) The best ICSE schools (the legacy ones) are extremely tough to get into.' Responding to the post, a user commented, 'I would tag these schools as 'branded' schools. My school fees was less than Rs 15k a year, i believe it has not touched the lakh figure yet So choosing good school vs branded one is more important.' Another user shared a different perspective, 'This is present cost. What about future cost of any professional degree or course especially if planning abroad. It will be same amount needed 10 yrs down the line to be saved every yr from now to cover up including future cost of education. Which effective means if we are not having double income group in any metro cities then it's a definite case of zero savings during retirement.' A third person wrote, 'I am shortlisting schools……and you get decent one's within lakh to 1.5/yr all inclusive. Now i am not saying this is less, but then your calculation is factoring fees of dhurubhai ambani school …..which shouldn't be the case.'