Latest news with #AnubhavSangal
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Reliance Q1 results today: Street expects healthy earnings. Is it the right time to buy RIL stock?
Reliance Q1 results today: Reliance Industries (RIL) will announce its June quarter (Q1) earnings on Friday, July 18, amid expectations of healthy year-on-year (YoY) growth in profit after tax (PAT) and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA). The Mukesh Ambani-owned oil-to-telecom-to-retail behemoth has experienced prolonged weakness in its core oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, while the retail and telecom segments have emerged as new growth engines for the conglomerate. Meanwhile, RIL share price has seen a solid gain of over 21 per cent this year till July 17. In comparison, equity benchmark Nifty 50 has risen nearly 6 per cent for the period. Defying cautious market sentiment, Reliance share price climbed half a per cent on the NSE in early trade on July 18 ahead of its Q1 earnings. Amid expectations of healthy earnings, investors face a tough question: Should they buy Reliance stock now or wait? Reliance's Q1 PAT is expected to see a healthy one-off gain from the Asian Paints stake sale. EBITDA is also likely to jump on a healthy showing of core verticals, such as O2C, telecom, and retail. "We expect RIL's consolidated EBITDA to rise by 15.4 per cent YoY (+2.1 per cent QoQ), with a 19-20 per cent YoY increase for O2C, digital and retail, offset by weak E&P (exploration & production). Reported PAT will be boosted by one-off gains of nearly ₹ 90 billion (post-tax) on Asian Paints stake sale," said Kotak Institutional Equities. Kotak expects RIL's Q1 EBITDA for digital services to increase 3.7 per cent QoQ and 20 per cent YoY, driven by the continued flow-through of tariff hikes. EBITDA for retail may rise 20 per cent YoY and 1.4 per cent QoQ, while for O2C, it may increase by 19 per cent YoY and 3.5 per cent QoQ on likely better margins, partly offset by refinery shutdown. However, Q1 EBITDA for E&P may decline 7.5 per cent YoY and 6 per cent QoQ on lower volumes and realisations, Kotak said. Anubhav Sangal, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, expects the O2C segment to gain from higher GRMs and better petchem, whereas JIO is anticipated to benefit from increased ARPU and subscriber base. EBITDA margins for the retail segment are probably going to remain stable. "Retail, digital services, and O2C EBITDA are forecast to expand by 19 per cent, 18 per cent, and 18 per cent, supporting RIL's anticipated 14.7 per cent YoY consolidated EBITDA growth. Meanwhile, downstream EBITDA may fall by 4 per cent as a result of lower crude prices. Jio's ARPU is expected to increase by 1 per cent on a quarterly basis to ₹ 210.3, with around 491.2 million subscribers," Sangal said. Saurabh Jain, Equity Head, Research- Fundamentals, SMC Global Securities, expects Reliance to deliver a strong performance driven by resilience and operational strength across its core verticals, such as O2C, Jio, and retail. Jain underscored that Reliance appears to be entering a phase of recovery and strategic momentum, particularly in the O2C segment, which had faced pressure in recent quarters due to volatile refining margins and weak petrochemical spreads. However, improved refining economics and a modest rebound in petrochemical margins are likely to support a recovery in profitability. In digital services, Jain expects Jio to report steady performance, driven by consistent subscriber additions and increasing penetration of fixed broadband, particularly through its 5G fixed wireless access solutions. "Despite pressures from rising depreciation and financing costs associated with the 5G rollout, the segment continues to sustain margin and profit growth," said Jain. "The retail segment is also expected to deliver steady performance, supported by consistent expansion in store footprint and improved operational efficiency, reflected in higher revenue per square foot. Key aspects to watch in the results include management commentary on green energy investments and the pace of monetisation in newer verticals," Jain said. Several top brokerage firms consider Reliance stock a long-term buy due to the company's strong fundamentals and growth outlook. Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹ 1,685. Motilal expects Reliance's consolidated EBITDA to rise 17 per cent YoY to ₹ 453 billion. Motilal said investors will focus on further clarity on ₹ 750 billion announcements in the new energy business, growth in retail store additions, and any pricing action in the telecom segment. Fundamental factors favour the stock's long-term appeal. However, the recent sharp outperformance seems to have made technical experts sceptical. "At the current juncture, Reliance faced resistance near the ₹ 1,550 mark, followed by a pullback toward its previous breakout zone. While the price has so far respected this support, the RSI has breached its prior support level, which raises caution," said Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers. Reliance shares technical chart "We recommend locking in profits in the ₹ 1,480–1,500 zone and waiting for a clearer structure or a decent pullback before considering fresh entries," said Patel. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
News18
18-06-2025
- Business
- News18
Israel-Iran War: Has Nifty Already Priced In Middle East Tensions? Experts Analyse
Last Updated: Experts believe that while the current escalation has not yet crossed a threshold to warrant a full-blown market correction Israel-Iran Conflict: Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, traded on a subdued note Wednesday amid escalating missile strikes between Iran and Israel, prompting investors to tread cautiously. As of 11:40 AM, the BSE Sensex was down 310 points or 0.38% at 81,272.93, while the NSE Nifty50 slipped 80 points or 0.32% to 24,774.30. Market experts suggest that investors may have already priced in the geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran conflict. Monday's strong market close indicates a shift in investor attention toward domestic growth drivers and corporate fundamentals. Middle East Tensions: Has the Market Priced In the Israel-Iran Conflict? According to Anubhav Sangal, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, the Indian stock market seems to be factoring in a limited conflict scenario rather than a prolonged regional war. 'The market has partially discounted the Israel-Iran conflict, reflecting both vulnerability and resilience. While initial reactions triggered volatility and sectoral churn, the overall discounting remains incomplete and highly conditional," he noted. Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research – Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, 'We believe markets have partially priced in the Iran conflict in the sense that it has taken cognisance of the conflicts, but the final outcome is still unknown and hence not priced. Believe markets are still wishful/hopeful of some kind of de-escalation coming in few days and may not have priced for any serious escalation or a potential catastrophic threshold involving US directly for the region." Analysts estimate that crude prices have jumped about 10% so far, and further escalation could push them up another 8–9%. 'Israel's airstrikes on Iran have sparked fears of supply chain disruptions. The market is anxiously watching how Iran will respond. Any retaliation could send prices soaring and push the region into a deeper crisis," said Navneet Damani, Group Senior VP and Head of Commodities Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Gold, meanwhile, has rallied to an all-time high of Rs 1 lakh in the domestic market and is nearing $3,500 per ounce globally, as investors shift towards safe-haven assets amid the growing geopolitical uncertainty. What Should Be Your Trading Strategy? Experts believe that while the current escalation has not yet crossed a threshold to warrant a full-blown market correction, further deterioration could lead to significant downside. Traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance, stay hedged, and keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, as volatility could spike sharply if tensions worsen. Anubhav Sangal of Bonanza recommends investors to treat geopolitical dips as buying opportunities. ' For now, markets are treating geopolitical dips as buying opportunities, supported by India's strong domestic fundamentals and limited direct exposure to the conflict zone," he said.
