Latest news with #ApurvaSheth
Hans India
11-07-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Silver prices touch all-time high as gold rises too
New Delhi: Silver priced reached an all-time high on Friday as gold picked up an upward trajectory too, breaking a losing streak. The precious metal prices witnessed a significant uptick amid fresh tariff jitters with Canada and Brazil by the US administration. Silver prices surged significantly, hitting a new all-time high. As compared to the previous day's price, silver gained Rs 2,356 to reach Rs 1,10,290 per kg -- up from Rs 1,07,934 per kg. The previous record high was Rs 1,09,550 per kg, registered on June 18 this year. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, said Silver is poised for a sharp rally and it didn't disappoint. 'Now Silver is also forming a cup and handle on the intraday charts. Silver is already in short fall. If US or other nations were to announce similar tariffs on silver or even worse ban exports like China has done in case of rare earth mineral then it could send silver prices to stratospheric levels,' Sheth noted. Now it is not a question of should you own silver or not. It is about how much do you own, she added. According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) data, the 24-carat gold price rose by Rs 465 to Rs 97,511 per 10 grams, compared to Rs 97,046 per 10 grams on Thursday. The 22-carat gold price climbed to Rs 89,320 per 10 grams as compared to the previous day's price of Rs 88,894, while 18-carat gold rose to Rs 73,133 per 10 grams, up from Rs 72,785, the previous day's price. "Gold prices stayed strong as renewed trade tariff jitters supported bullion, with the U.S. imposing fresh tariffs on Canada and Brazil, markets have begun pricing in the adverse implications of renewed trade tensions," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities. "The resulting uncertainty has once again turned sentiment in favour of gold, especially after recent price corrections due to Middle East de-escalation," Trivedi added. The rally in precious metals - both gold and silver - is in line with international trends. Gold was trading 1.01 per cent higher at $3,358 per ounce, while silver was up 2.92 per cent at $38.40 per ounce. Meanwhile, at around 5:44 pm, the future contract expiring on August 5 was trading at Rs 97,582 per 10 gram, up Rs 891 against the previous closing of 96,691.
Mint
19-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Is India's premium at risk? As Israel-Iran conflict sparks FPI outflows, valuation debate rages
Cautious investor sentiment because of the Israel-Iran conflict has sparked a significant flight of foreign capital from India, reversing recent inflows. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have already pulled nearly ₹8,423 crore from domestic equities in June. This outflow follows ₹19,860 crore and ₹4,223 crore of inflows in the preceding two months, respectively. FPIs remain net sellers for the year, and experts anticipate further outflows if the conflict extends. 'FPIs are free birds and aren't under any compulsion to buy stocks at specific prices to support the counter like we do," said Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives and research at SAMCO Securities. 'Their latest position in the derivatives segment shows that they are heavily bearish on the Indian stock market." But experts also say such concerns might be transitory as India still offers the best growth story in an era of global slowdown. 'India's macro fundamentals are head and shoulders above any other top 10 economy in the world," said Vikas Gupta, chief executive and chief investment strategist at OmniScience Capital. 'From GDP growth numbers to inflation control, building forex (foreign exchange) reserves to maintaining forex stability, even controlling the fiscal and current account deficits, from all angles we are one of the strongest worldwide." Naturally, India has been commanding a premium over its global peers, particularly in the previous five years. The benchmark Nifty 50 is trading at 23.3 times its one-year forward earnings estimate, a level that, while having moderated, sits closer to September when the domestic markets had peaked, Bloomberg data indicates. A premium valuation made sense in the past because Indian Inc's earnings grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 24% in the last four years, said Jaiprakash Toshniwal, fund manager and senior equity research analyst at LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management. '(However,) we need to keep in mind that earnings growth is expected to be in the lower double digits in the medium term based on consensus estimates," he added. Still, that would be a step up from India Inc's performance in 2024-25, which was mostly dismal throughout the fiscal year. According to a recent Kotak Institutional Equities report, Nifty 500 companies reported a 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) sales growth in Q4FY25, although net profit grew 7%, mainly aided by benign raw material prices and cost-cutting measures, it said. Also read | India Inc's report card: Headwinds take a toll in Q4 A glass half full A broad-based future earnings downgrade suggests that demand woes will persist in the economy for some time. Yet, on the macro front, Ranju Rajan, head of managed accounts at Axis Securities, insists the Reserve Bank of India's ongoing liquidity measures, including a 100 basis-point rate cut this year, and a pickup in government capital expenditure will spur economic growth in FY26 and FY27. Echoing this optimism, Seshadri Sen, head of research and strategist at Emkay Global, said India will see the effects of monetary and tax stimuli playing out this financial year, particularly in the second half. 'Next year, we will see an upward revision in the government's pay commission, and then tech-related hiring will pick up from 2027," Sen said, adding that these factors will pave the way for a consumption revival. 'So I think we are at the bottom of a medium-term consumption cycle." Ample liquidity in the market has also been pushing up India's valuation premium, according to Sheth of SAMCO Securities. 'DIIs (domestic institutional investors), including mutual funds, are investing ₹1,300 crore in the Indian market almost daily, creating a situation where huge liquidity is chasing fewer stocks, resulting in their premium valuations" he said. But rising crude oil prices due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict may weaken the arguments for India's high valuation, Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report. If crude touches $90-100 per barrel, it can derail any hopes of India Inc's earnings recovery in FY26, as raw material costs would go up significantly, noted experts. Also read | Israel-Iran conflict: How will rising crude oil prices affect India? This bearish outlook, however, finds a counterpoint in the views of some analysts. 'We have seen that 90% of the time crude reacts much more than the actual event," said Sumit Pokharna, oil and gas analyst at Kotak Securities. 'The situation definitely remains fragile, but global demand for crude is falling and there is enough supply to keep price rises in check." As a result, several experts expect that high crude oil prices might not sustain for long. But sectors dependent on oil, such as paints, tyres, petrochemicals, automobiles, and even consumer goods, might see a dip in earnings for a quarter before bouncing back for the broader part of FY26. For now, 'insurance, cables and wires, renewable energy, and select pharma companies offer promising return potential from a growth and valuation standpoint", said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking. These sectors are backed by compelling long-term themes of under-penetrated markets, a private capex revival, strong government-led infrastructure push, global energy transition commitments and changing demographics of the country, Mishra said. Meanwhile, India's equity market on Thursday barely reacted to the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep US benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% as this was in line with expectations. Also read | Israel vs Iran could be worse for markets than Russia vs Ukraine. Here's why.
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Business Standard
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Silver prices surge: Top reasons and what to expect in the months ahead
Silver prices have been on a run in the last few weeks, rising from around $29.5 an ounce (oz) to $36.6/oz. This 24 per cent rise from March 2025 levels has outpaced the run in gold prices, which climbed nearly 15 per cent during this period to $3,338/oz. The recent strength in silver prices, analysts at HDFC Mutual Fund wrote in a note, can be partly explained by investors positioning for the ratio to normalize after silver's prolonged underperformance, besides strong demand from the user industries. In the last one year, silver prices have moved up 26.24 per cent, underperforming the run in gold prices that gained nearly 45 per cent during this period, data shows. Gold-Silver ratio ranged around and crossed 100 in May 2025, showing significant undervaluation of silver relative to Gold. The ratio, which indicates how many grams of silver one can buy for one gram of gold, had crossed 100 only once in this century, during the Covid-19 pandemic when silver corrected sharply amid disrupted industrial activity. A higher Gold – Silver ratio indicates silver is cheaper, and investors typically use it to diversify the amount of precious metals that they hold in their portfolio. As on 9 June 2025, the ratio stood at 91.53, higher than the 10-year average of 81, analysts said. Demand for silver Usage-wise, silver has a 52 per cent demand from industrial applications, and one of the biggest demand growth driver is its use in clean energy applications such as solar energy and electric vehicles (EVs). Jewellery (at 18 per cent) and physical investment, coins & bars (21 per cent) were some of the other demand drivers for silver in the last 10 years (from 2015-2024). Solar sector demand As per estimates in the World Silver Survey 2025, silver industrial demand rose 4 per cent in 2024 to 681 million ounces (Moz), reaching a new record high for the fourth consecutive year. Clean energy requirements such as investment in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification, and solar applications were key drivers. AI is another driver for silver demand, as consumer electronics shipments increased. Jewellery, silverware and investment demand could see varying levels of demand going ahead amid firm prices, analysts said. Global policies around clean energy and outlook for global trade, in this backdrop, assume relevance in estimating long-term demand for silver. "Solar and EV-related demand has been a key driver for silver, and most economies have taken a strong view towards continued growth in adoption of these technologies. Risks to global growth outlook from tariff related uncertainties translate to risks to silver demand," the HDFC Mutual Fund note said. Where are silver prices headed? On the technical charts, a rare 'Cup and Handle' pattern is forming not just on the weekly chart, but also on the multi-decade (yearly) chart, said Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives & research at SAMCO Securities, signaling a powerful fractal setup in motion. 'The $35 level now stands out as a crucial breakout zone. A sustained close above this mark could clear the path towards all-time highs, potentially targeting the psychological $50 zone seen during silver's last euphoric run in 2011,' Sheth said. TECHNICAL CHART HERE G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, too, sees a robust demand from the user industries continuing in the months ahead, which is likely to keep silver prices firm. 'Demand for silver from solar and EV industries is likely to stay firm going ahead. I expect silver prices to rise 20 per cent easily from here on in the next 6 – 12 months,' he said.
Business Recorder
06-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's benchmark Nifty 50 logs best day in three weeks on RBI's bumper policy support
India's benchmark Nifty 50 logged its best day in three weeks as investors rallied behind the central bank's bumper policy measures. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the key lending rate by 50 basis points, exceeding the widely expected 25 basis point reduction. It also unexpectedly reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) requirement for banks by 100 bps and shifted its policy stance to neutral from accommodative. The Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex added about 1% on the day and for the week to close at 25,003.05 and 82,188.99, respectively. The benchmarks also recorded their first weekly gain after two straight weeks of decline. 'This is not business-as-usual monetary policy. It is a deliberate realignment based on a rare convergence of falling inflation, stable external accounts, and the need to pre-empt global slowdown spillovers,' said Arsh Mogre, economist at PL Capital. The CRR cut is expected to boost banking liquidity by 2.5 trillion rupees, on top of the existing surplus of 3 trillion rupees, Barclays said. This liquidity boost is expected to lower the cost of funding for banks and spur credit growth, powering rate-sensitive stocks. All 13 sub-sectors climbed. Financials jumped 1.8% on the day to hit record highs, with heavyweight HDFC Bank touching a lifetime high level after an 1.5% surge. Non-bank lender Bajaj Finance gained 4.9%. Reliance, rate-sensitive sectors lead Indian shares higher, RBI decision in focus Real estate stocks soared 4.7% and automobile stocks added 1.5%. The smallcaps and midcaps gained 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. 'Excess liquidity tends to find its way into capital markets, especially in an environment of declining savings and deposit rates,' said Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives and research at SAMCO Securities. Bucking the trend, some railway stocks, including RailTel Corporation of India and RITES, slipped on the day after Kotak Institutional Equities said the recent surge in stocks contrasted their fundamentals.
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Business Standard
20-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
A bull-market illusion? Handful of stocks driving the surge, data reveals
The ongoing rally in benchmark indices has not lifted all boats, as only a handful of stocks have recovered to their levels at last year's market peak. While the Nifty 50 index is currently less than 5 per cent below its high and has recovered 14 per cent from its recent low of 21,750 levels, 41 stocks (82 per cent), are still below their closing prices when the index hit its peak on September 27, data shows. In the broader markets, too, over 72 per cent of the NSE 500 stocks are still trading below their closing prices from September 27. Additionally, one in four stocks, or 28 per cent, remain lower by more than 20 per cent from those closing levels, according to data compiled by Business Standard. Among the top 750 listed companies, analysts at SAMCO Securities said, stocks of only 30-35 companies have driven the recent rally, highlighting that the reality is this "isn't a bull market - it's more like a bull mirage." The index may flirt with 25,000, but most stocks are still nursing their wounds, it said in a recent note. "This isn't a rotation - it's a massacre disguised as a milestone," wrote Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities, in a recent note. Within the NSE 500 pack, Sterling and Wilson Renewable (down 54 per cent), Adani Green Energy (down 51 per cent), Ola Electric Mobility (down 49 per cent), BrainBees Solutions (down 46 per cent) and IndusInd Bank (down 46 per cent) are the top losers since the market closing on September 26. They are yet to hit their peak levels hit late last year. Transformers & Rectifiers (up 67 per cent), BSE (98 per cent), and JSW Holdings (156 per cent) are top gainers along with defence public sector undertakings (PSUs) like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (61 per cent), Garden Reach Shipbuilders (45 per cent) and Bharat Dynamics (62 per cent). Momentum still prevails However, market experts are of the view that, while the rally may be led by few heavyweights, the bullish momentum still prevails from a long-term viewpoint. Indian equity market is showing clear signs of bullish momentum, according to Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives and technicals, wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL). He points to a sharp recovery of over 3,000 points from recent lows in the Nifty index, which is trading above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is a key technical signal that the market is gaining strength, Taparia said, adding, 'This kind of recovery doesn't happen in a bear market.' Taparia noted that the current rally has been led by selective sectors, particularly banking and heavyweight counters like Reliance Industries (RIL). The Bank Nifty has surged to record highs, contributing significantly to the market's gains, he added. He also highlighted the sustained Systematic Investment Plan (SIPs) inflows and aggressive buying by both Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs). 'The FIIs' long-short ratio has turned positive and SIP flows are at record highs, which underpins the bullish sentiment,' he said. While the market has been range-bound between 22,000 and 26,000 for several months, Taparia believes sector rotation, from defence and banking to metals and IT, will broaden the rally. We're in a phase where selective buying is driving the index, and broader participation will follow, he said.
