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New Statesman
an hour ago
- Politics
- New Statesman
Israel's hollow victory
Photo by Marc Israel Sellem/AFP The war that began on 7 October 2023 – of which the '12-day war' with Iran was merely one episode – has upset much of the received wisdom that had emerged in the Middle East over the past few decades. As is often the case with politics in this region, these disruptions revolve in part around the policies, personality, and prospects of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister. Some developments were distinctly to his disadvantage: many had previously believed that Hamas was interested in stability and in the slow but steady economic recovery of the Gaza Strip, and that it would be easily and swiftly defeated if it ever initiated an escalation. This paradigm shattered on 7 October with Hamas's attack – at enormous cost, first to ordinary Israelis, and then to many, many more Palestinians. It also nearly derailed Netanyahu's remarkably resilient political career. But other long-held beliefs – once seen as ironclad constraints on his room for manoeuvre – appear to have shattered as well. Chief among them was the idea that Israel couldn't sustain a war longer than four to six weeks due to the economic toll and its lack of strategic depth. Yet the current war has now lasted nearly 20 months and counting – longer than all of Israel's previous wars combined. Another belief was that Israel couldn't withstand significant military casualties without the public turning against the war. Yet Israel has now lost more than 900 soldiers, with little discernible effect on public support for the war effort. There was also the assumption that neither the West nor neighbouring Arab countries would tolerate a brutal conflict resembling Putin's destruction of Grozny or Sri Lanka's assault on Tamil autonomies – marked by immense casualties, well-documented war crimes, and advertised and exercised genocidal intent. Yet, despite some feeble expressions of discomfort from certain quarters, in terms of actual response, much of the world has accepted it without significant objection. There was no way that Israel could afford to fight more than one war at a time, and it certainly couldn't take on Hezbollah, the state-like paramilitary movement in Lebanon that left Israel bruised and reeling after their last war, in 2006. But Israel wiped Hezbollah out as a regional force, showing it has also spent the 18 years since 2006 preparing for a rematch – which, almost as an afterthought, precipitated the collapse of Israel's last traditional historic rival, Baathist Syria. And finally, it was once taken as a given that Israel could not survive a direct war with Iran, due to the Islamic Republic's vast arsenal of ballistic missiles – too numerous for Israel's missile defences to intercept, and too widely dispersed across Iran's expansive terrain. Yet during the 12-day conflict, only about 100 of the 1,000 missiles launched toward Israel made impact. Pre-war estimates presented to Netanyahu's cabinet had forecast between 800 and 4,000 Israeli deaths as an acceptable range. In the end, fewer than 24 Israelis were killed. In response, Israel inflicted a casualty toll estimated to be 20 times higher on Iran, targeting not only personnel – including senior military leadership (with some positions eliminated more than once) – but also missile stockpiles, launchers, and both the infrastructure and intellectual core of Iran's nuclear programme. The latter included the assassination of nuclear scientists, often carried out in a manner that also killed their families and neighbours. To some extent, many of these paradigm shifts are works in progress – most pertinently, the economic impact of the war and the degree to which Netanyahu's triumphalism over Iran has been justified. The Iran front alone had cost Israel $3bn in damage; the market impact and expenditure are still being calculated, but it's likely to be dwarfed by the overall cost of the war in Gaza, projected by the Bank of Israel to top $50bn by the end of the current year. It can be argued Israel's economy went off the cliff some time ago, but hasn't hit the ground yet. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's long-held dream of a joint Israeli-American regime change war on Tehran came tantalisingly (or terrifyingly) close, but has so far failed to materialise. The Iranian regime appears, for now, to be emerging more entrenched and more repressive. Iran retains much of its ballistic missile arsenal, including some of the heaviest payloads. And even if its nuclear programme has been damaged to the extent claimed by Israel and the US – a highly contested assessment – the incentives for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon, if only as a deterrent, have increased. In other words, all of Netanyahu's original motivations for the war remain in play, in some ways more acutely than before – now coupled with the dangerous suggestion (perhaps misleading) that Israel can indeed survive a war that was once deemed apocalyptic. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Still, it is obvious that Netanyahu is aware that Israel accomplished all it could on its own, and that the momentum for open-ended American involvement in the conflict appears to have hit a ceiling – as have, reportedly, at least some of Israel's interceptor missiles, which would mean the loss in property and lives in Israel would only grow if the war escalated. And the ceasefire with Iran could collapse at any moment – for instance, by some faction of Iran's military apparatus retaliating (unlikely) or by Israel assuming it has the same freedom of action in Iran as it does in Lebanon, where it has continued to stage pinpoint air-raids and assassinations at will, despite the ceasefire being still in force (more likely). But assuming the ceasefire holds, Netanyahu now faces a number of choices: does he use the momentum of the paradigm shift to hold a snap election to secure power until at least 2029? And does he attempt to finally convert Israel's tactical military wins into a sustainable diplomatic infrastructure? Or does he attempt to instigate a new round of fighting with Tehran, this time aiming to drag America in all the way? Calling a snap election now – instead of waiting for the mandatory election year of 2026 – would force Netanyahu to confront the apparent crumbling of another paradigm. It is usually believed that in times of war, Israelis rally behind institutions and leadership, prioritising national unity over political disagreements. Few things can boost a leader's popularity more than a successful war. Yet this belief might soon be discarded too. The public has rallied behind some institutions and leadership figures: in the first week of the war, a survey by the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University found that trust in the army went up from 75 per cent to 82 per cent, trust in the Air Force from 71 per cent to 83 per cent and trust for Israel's Intelligence Corps from 61 per cent to 74 per cent. Trust, meanwhile, in Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir from 56 per cent in May to 69 per cent in June. But trust in Netanyahu's government only went up by eight points – from 21 per cent to a miserly 29 per cent. Netanyahu himself did a little better, going from 26 per cent in May to 35 per cent as the war started. In another survey by pollster Agam Labs, the war cabinet and the government ranked lowest on a scale of trust from 1 to 6 (at 2.18 and 1.73, respectively), while Netanyahu himself scored a dismal 1.54, only slightly more trusted than the most extreme far-right figures in his cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich (1.46) and Itamar Ben Gvir (1.24). Far more consequentially for the question of snap elections, polling done for Israel's Channel 12 News found that while Netanyahu's Likud party would gain four extra seats compared to pre-war surveys – remaining the largest party at 26 seats – these seats would likely be won at the expense of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, whose support Netanyahu still needs, than any opposition party. The all-important 'bloc' calculation remains the same: if elections were to be held this week, the parties that currently make up the coalition would only get 49 seats out of 120, while the opposition parties – even discounting the Palestinian-majority parties almost invariably excluded from coalition agreements – would get at least 61, meaning the next prime minister would not be Benjamin Netanyahu. In a way, this would be a fitting coda to Netanyahu's lifelong attempt to cast himself as the new Winston Churchill in a fight against (in his imagination) Iran's Nazi Germany. After all, Churchill, who led a much more convincing victory in World War Two, lost the premiership to Clement Attlee immediately thereafter. But there is also a third scenario, hinted at by the leak – and the reactions to it – of the ambitious peace deal concocted by Trump and Netanyahu to end the war much more conclusively. According to the leak, revealed by the unwaveringly pro-Netanyahu Israel Hayom newspaper and not denied by the prime minister, the war in Gaza would wrap up within two weeks. The hostages would be released, the surviving leadership of Hamas would go into exile, and a group of states worldwide would offer visas and asylum to Gazans willing, in a cynical sense of the word, to emigrate. Four Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and two yet to be disclosed, will take up governance and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia, Syria and other states would then join the Abraham Accords, normalising relations with Israel. For its part, Israel will acknowledge some openness to a two-state solution – pending some unspecified 'reforms' to the Palestinian Authority, which all sounds like the palest possible imitation of statehood for Palestinians. In exchange, the United States will recognise a degree of Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, though it remains unclear whether this would be structural or symbolic.. To anyone genuinely interested in securing Israel's uncontested and permanent control over historic Palestine, along with regional pre-eminence and acceptance by other Middle East countries, this 'peace deal' is a dream come true. But to those committed to Israel's own version of 'from the river to the sea' – total annexation with maximum expulsion of Palestinians – this represents a historic opportunity squandered (Smotrich has already denounced the report, telling Netanyahu he has no mandate to negotiate for any kind of Palestinian state). This creates an opening for Netanyahu to revert to a far more familiar pattern than the past 20 months of relentless escalation. If reports of the deal are accurate, and if the other putative parties are genuinely willing, the prime minister could afford to discard Smotrich and Ben Gvir and instead invite the centre-right opposition parties into government – Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and even Avigdor Lieberman. This would not only reconstitute a more traditional Netanyahu coalition – one in which he plays centrists and right-wingers against each other, tacking with the political winds rather than remaining bound to a rigid ideological course – but also allow him to enter the 2026 election year as both a successful war leader and a peacemaker. Best of all, from Netanyahu's perspective, is that he would then have both the mandate and the timeframe to finalise his authoritarian reforms – from politicising the judiciary to effectively strangling civil society. He would also gain, at the very least, four more years in which to launch a second war with Iran if necessary – and this time, ensure that America is fully dragged in to fight it all the way to the end. [See also: Imperial calculations] Related
India.com
3 hours ago
- Politics
- India.com
Days after Iran Israel war, Trump makes big move, decides to ink mega deal with Tehran worth Rs..., plans to remove..., Israel says...
Days after Iran Israel war, Trump makes big move, decides to ink mega deal with Tehran worth Rs..., plans to remove..., Israel says... Following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, United States President Donald Trump's stance towards Tehran has changed. According to top Iranian officials and sources in the Trump administration, the US is planning to provide USD 20–30 billion for Iran's nuclear program and is ready to remove sanctions imposed on the Middle Eastern country. Meanwhile, Israel said that if needed, it will not hesitate to attack the Middle Eastern country again. Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said that his country started the war without knowing the fact that whether the US would support it or not. He said that Israel does not know where the uranium reserves are, but if needed, it will attack Iran again. Meanwhile, sources in the Trump administration said that the US will not give money to Iran directly, but it will provide this help through Arab countries. Katz told news outlets that Israel would attack Iran again if necessary. He told Channel 12, 'We will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.' He acknowledged that Israel does not know the location of Iran's enriched uranium, but also claimed that recent airstrikes had destroyed Tehran's enrichment capabilities. 'We would have killed Khamenei but did not get a chance', he said. Killing Iran's Supreme Leader Responding on a question on eliminating Khamenei, Israel's Defence Minister said, 'If Khamenei had been within our reach, we would have killed him. We did try.' He said that Israel's defence forces wanted to neutralise Iran's supreme leader but did not get a chance. 'Israel wanted to eliminate Khamenei, but did not get a chance to do so.' When Katz was asked whether Israel had sought permission from America for this, he answered, 'We do not need anyone's permission for these things,' he said. 'We don't need permission from America' Responding to Channel 13 question regarding confirmation from the US to kill Khamenei, Katz stated that such actions don't require external approval. What did Trump say about Khamenei? In a social media post on June 17, Trump said, 'We know exactly where the so-called Supreme Leader is hiding. He is an easy target, but he is safe there – we will not eliminate (kill) him, at least not yet.' Notably, a public debate is going on over whether the airstrikes caused significant damage to Iran's nuclear program. However, some reports suggest that Iran was on track to possess a nuclear weapon within months. Israeli and American officials believe that Iran has suffered heavy damage. According to Katz, 'It will take them many years, but we (Israel) will not let this happen.
Morocco World
8 hours ago
- Health
- Morocco World
Moroccan Biologist Jinane Zouaki Joins Ibero-American Academy of Pharmacy
Rabat – Moroccan biologist Jinane Zouaki has been appointed as an academic corresponding member of the Ibero-American Academy of Pharmacy. Her appointment marks a big milestone, as she is the first Moroccan, Arab, and African woman to receive this honor. The official ceremony took place on Tuesday at the Faculty of Pharmacy in Granada, Spain. The event gathered many scientists from Spain, Portugal, Latin America, and Morocco. In her speech to the academy, Zouaki spoke about her history of pharmacy in Morocco. She outlined the country's recent efforts to strengthen its health sovereignty under the leadership of King Mohammed VI. She explained that this national strategy has helped Morocco become a leading industrial hub and a strong, competitive player in both regional and international healthcare sectors. Speaking to Morocco's state news agency MAP, Zouaki shared her pride and gratitude for joining such a prestigious institution. She said the recognition is not only a personal achievement, but also a proud moment for Moroccan women and for the country as a whole. This recognition contributes to Morocco's scientific presence on the international stage, she added. Originally from the northern city of Tetouan, Zouaki holds a doctorate in pharmacy. In 2022, she became the first Moroccan and African to receive the Medal of Privilege from the University of Granada, a high honor that celebrates her long journey in education and biomedical research. Zouaki also made history as the first Moroccan to join the Royal Academy of Pharmacy of Catalonia. During the COVID-19 pandemic, she volunteered to help medical teams. At her molecular biology lab in Saniat Rmel Hospital in Tetouan, she worked on COVID-19 testing and helped train healthcare workers. Tags: HealthMoroccopharmacy
Middle East Eye
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
'Vindicated': Unscathed by war, Gulf states look to capitalise on Israel and Iran's losses
The Gulf states see two losers in the conflict between Israel and Iran, analysts and Arab officials tell Middle East Eye. Having squeaked through the hostilities with little damage themselves, leaders in the energy-rich Gulf are now in a position to tap their relative advantages in Israel and the Islamic Republic. Watching the smoke rise from Tehran was a change for leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who just a few years ago were fending off drones and missiles launched at them from Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli warplanes made hay of Iran's weak air defences. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals were assassinated, and ballistic missile launchers and arms factories were destroyed. The war culminated in the US bombing Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. And that is the aspect that US and Israeli officials are hammering home about the conflict in their interactions, three Arab officials told MEE. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But for the first time in a generation, Arab rulers got to see how Israel would fare against a conventional army. Israeli encroachment stopped 'The Israelis showed strong spirit in supporting their military…They were brave. However, the home front in Israel couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes,' one Arab official told MEE, sharing an assessment of the war review in a leading Arab capital. MEE spoke with officials representing three Arab capitals for this article. All said that in their country's corridors of power, the assessment is that Israel was the first to signal it was ready for a ceasefire after having exhausted its list of military targets and seeing that the Islamic Republic was not facing collapse. 'Benjamin Netanyahu was on a rise until now,' Bader al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE. 'Of course, Israel demonstrated military superiority over Iran's skies. But Iran stopped the Israeli encroachment and hit back. The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken.' 'The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken' - Bader al-Saif, Kuwait University The perception of Israeli vulnerability is important to understand how the US's Arab allies will approach Israel in the future, experts say. It could give them more leverage with Israel, including states that normalised ties with it in 2020 under the Abraham Accords. The same goes for Tehran, the Arab officials told MEE. They expect Gulf leaders to offer investments to Tehran and are not ruling out high-level visits in the coming months. In April, Saudi Arabia's defence minister and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Tehran. Despite saying Iran's nuclear programme has been 'blown up to kingdom come', US President Donald Trump says his administration will restart talks with Iran. Iran says its nuclear programme is "badly damaged". Either way, the Gulf states backed the nuclear talks, and their sway in Tehran could increase even more now, Arab officials told MEE. 'The Gulf gets a hearing in Washington. At the end of the day, that remains the tremendous leverage it has with Iran - calling up Trump in the middle of the night and him answering the phone,' one Arab diplomat told MEE. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia sealed deals for hundreds of billions of dollars with the US when Trump visited the region in May. At the time, they appeared to get concessions. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia, Trump stopped US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, MEE revealed. He also lifted sanctions on Syria. 'The Israelis were brave...[but] the home front couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes' - Arab official The Gulf states were unable to stop Israel's attack on Iran. For a moment, it looked dicey. Although the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have differing priorities, experts say none of them wanted to see the US directly join Israel's offensive. In the end, all the Arab officials who spoke with MEE characterised the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as 'limited" or "minimal". Iran's retaliatory strike on al-Udeid military base in Qatar was coordinated well in advance with Gulf states, MEE reported. 'This crisis has really elevated the Gulf states' leadership,' Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, told MEE. 'They were able to play a behind-the-scenes diplomatic role and avoid any significant attack on their territory. They triangulated their cooperation to be inclusive of key states in the broader region, particularly Iran, Turkey and Israel,' he added. Sympathy with Iran? For years, the US tried to recruit Gulf states into an alliance with Israel to counter Iran. When Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria, and the Houthis were lobbing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia - that pitch was attractive. It reached its peak before the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel, when US Central Command tried to create a 'Middle East Nato' linking Israel to Gulf states and Egypt's air defence. But when Israel and Iran came to blows, instead of joining in Israel's offensive, the US's Arab allies lobbied Trump to stop the war. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time' - Patrick Theros, former US ambassador Israel and Iran exchanged direct fire twice in 2024. The US did receive some Saudi and Qatari support defending Israel last year. But Iran choreographed its missile barrages then. This round was the first bare-knuckled battle between them, with Israeli jets pounding Tehran and Iran hammering major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all condemned Israel's attack on Iran. Qatar has historically maintained closer ties to the Islamic Republic, in part because they share the world's largest natural gas field. But this conflict saw the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly and privately press for a ceasefire, two Arab officials told MEE. 'US and Israeli officials may not have anticipated how serious the Gulf is about de-escalation. They know now. Saudi Arabia is on the top of that list,' Patrick Theros, a former US diplomat who served as ambassador to Qatar and a high-ranking official in the UAE, told MEE. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, including Saudi Arabia, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time,' Theros said. Israel and US modified F-35s to enable Iran attack without refuelling, sources say Read More » Not so long ago, Israel may have been able to convince Saudi Arabia to join in its attack. In 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman compared Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler and said he was trying to 'conquer the world'. Then, Saudi Arabia became bogged down fighting Iran's allies in Yemen. In 2019, two major Saudi oil facilities were attacked. At the time, President Trump shrugged off the assault, which emanated from Iran. In the following years, Saudi Arabia moved to patch up ties with the Islamic Republic. In 2023, China brokered a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. It worked for everyone during the war. The Strait of Hormuz, which China relies on for its oil shipments, remained open. Iranian oil exports soared despite Israeli attacks, and Saudi Arabia's oil installations were safe again. 'The Gulf isn't where it was at in 2019,' Saif, at Kuwait University, told MEE. "We [the Gulf] feel vindicated that we did not join the war.' Gaza ceasefire and normalisation The Gulf states' main focus is reducing their economies' dependence on oil revenue. Saudi Arabia has pushed through liberalising social reforms and is pursuing an ambitious Vision 2030 agenda that includes luxury Red Sea tourism. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi want to build AI data centres. One overlooked element of the change, Theros told MEE, is that the sectarian tensions that feed into the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in spheres of influence like Yemen and Syria have ebbed, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pursues modernising social reforms. 'Now that Mohammed Bin Salman has de-Wahhabised Saudi Arabia, the rhetoric out of the clerics about the Shia has been curbed,' Theros said. 'That makes it harder for Israel to bring Saudi Arabia along.' If anything, public opinion in the Gulf has turned more negative towards Israel over its war on Gaza, where over 56,000 Palestinians have been killed. A poll released by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the first months of the Gaza war revealed 96 percent of people in Saudi Arabia oppose normalisation with Israel. Trump signalled on Wednesday that he wants to build out his fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran to Gaza, where he said 'great progress is being made' to end the war. Ending that conflict is a prerequisite to any talk of normalising ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Under Saudi pressure, Trump refrained from lobbying the kingdom to cut a deal with Israel during his visit to Riyadh in May, but told Saudi Arabia, 'you'll be greatly honouring me' by doing so. Saudi Arabia says it needs to see Israel take irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state to normalise relations. Diplomats say that after the Israel-Iran war, the price Saudi Arabia will demand is going up. 'Saudi Arabia has a very good sense of where the Arab street is going,' one Arab official told MEE. 'It will insist on something serious.'
Ya Libnan
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Ya Libnan
Israel strikes Lebanon in one of biggest attacks since November ceasefire
One person died and 21 others were injured, Lebanon's Health Ministry said. Israel said it was targeting an underground Hezbollah site. By Rachel Chason , Suzan Haidamous , Mohamad El Chamaa and Lior Soroka BEIRUT — Israel pounded southern Lebanon with a series of airstrikes Friday in what analysts and officials on the ground said were some of the most significant strikes since Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in November. Video showed massive plumes of gray smoke rising above a hilltop, and Lebanon's official National News Agency reported an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building in Nabatieh. The Washington Post was unable to immediately verify who or what struck the residential building in Nabatieh; neither the Israel Defense Forces nor Lebanon's government responded to requests for comment. Lebanon's Health Ministry said one person was killed and 21 were injured during the strikes. The National News Agency reported there were more than 20 hits in under 15 minutes. The Israel Defense Forces said Israeli air force fighter jets targeted a 'significant underground project' used by Hezbollah in the Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon. The site was 'completely taken out of use' following the strikes, the IDF said. Beaufort Ridge is about five miles from Nabatieh. In a separate Arabic-language statement , spokesman Avichay Adraee said the IDF did not target a civilian building. Instead, he said, a rocket, stored by Hezbollah inside the building, 'was launched and hit the civilian building' as a result of Israel's strike. Adraee accused Hezbollah of endangering civilians by not giving up its arsenal to the Lebanese government, saying he expected the Lebanese military to confiscateHezbollah's weapons. Lebanon's government, which has pledged to implement the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, condemned the attacks, with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam saying they represented 'a blatant violation of national sovereignty … and pose a threat to the stability we are keen to preserve.' Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Israel 'continues to flout regional and international resolutions' and called on the international community to intervene. The Trump administration argues a ceasefire between Israel and Iran could help secure peace on Israel's other fronts , including Gaza, as well as lead to normalization agreements with some of Israel's Arab neighbors. But in southern Lebanon, even since the two sides agreed to a ceasefire seven months ago, Israeli strikes have remained a near-daily occurrence, analysts say. In its Friday statement, Israel said Hezbollah had been making 'rehabilitation attempts' in southern Lebanon; the November ceasefire deal required Lebanese forces to ensure that all Hezbollah infrastructure is removed from the area. Between Nov. 27 — the day after the deal was announced — and June 9, 172 Lebanese deaths and 409 injuries have been reported as a result of Israeli attacks, said Hussein Chaabane, a Beirut-based investigative journalist with Legal Agenda who has been tracking the strikes. Chaabane's toll does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Despite a mid-February deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw, the IDF has remained in five strategic positions in southern Lebanon close to the border. And entire areas in the south have become 'unofficial buffer zones,' where residents who dare to travel face sniper fire and drone strikes by the IDF, Chaabane said. He said the strikes on Friday were significant — and caused fear in the surrounding community — because of the size of the explosions. 'What is happening is more than just the ceasefire being violated,' Chaabane said. 'It is the transformation of the south of Lebanon. … It has become a de facto security strip.' The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Chaabane's report. Hassan Wazni, the director of Nabih Berri Governmental Hospital, said the strikes were so strong that they shook the ground, reminding him of the period of heavy strikes last year David Wood, a Lebanon analyst with the International Crisis Group, said that while some people in other parts of the country feel the war has ended, 'that has never been the case in southern Lebanon.' 'There is a feeling that the ceasefire doesn't protect them, that Israel is doing whatever it pleases in a military sense, and that the United States — which is the chair of the monitoring committee — is allowing them to do so,' he said. He referred to a committee including representatives from Lebanon, Israel, France, the United States and the United Nations that is charged with monitoring violations of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Wood added that the longer the strikes continue and civilians are killed, the more frustration in southern Lebanon could grow, including with the new government for failing to protect its residents. 'The longer this goes on and the state can't protect them,' he warned, 'the more likely people are to turn to Hezbollah and groups like it that could emerge.' WASHINGTON POST
