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First Post
18 hours ago
- Politics
- First Post
Bangladesh's sovereignty at stake: Humanitarian corridors or geopolitical Trojan Horses?
As Bangladesh grapples with Myanmar's enduring humanitarian crisis, the recent proposal for a United Nations-backed humanitarian corridor connecting Chittagong with Myanmar's Rakhine State, while outwardly noble, poses significant risks to national sovereignty and regional stability. These corridors, historically depicted as lifelines, often bear the subtle marks of strategic intervention, geopolitical exploitation, and foreign intelligence operations. In March 2025, UN Secretary-General António Guterres proposed establishing a humanitarian corridor from Bangladesh's critical port city of Chittagong into Myanmar's violence-ridden Rakhine State. This corridor aims to deliver aid to over two million displaced persons suffering under famine conditions. Bangladesh's interim government, currently led by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, linked corridor approval directly to Rohingya refugee repatriation—a political quid pro quo potentially fraught with security risks. Yet, despite assurances, the corridor's broader implications remain troublingly unaddressed. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Geopolitical precedent consistently demonstrates the vulnerabilities inherent in such humanitarian corridors. Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan offer stark illustrations: humanitarian routes became pipelines for foreign military equipment, intelligence operations, and covert proxy support. The Chittagong corridor risks mirroring these patterns, transforming a vital economic hub and strategic port into an intelligence foothold or even a forward operating base for foreign powers. Already, credible intelligence indicates that external powers are manoeuvring along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border region. Reports allege U.S. intentions to leverage humanitarian channels in support of anti-junta groups such as the Arakan Army (AA), including drone operations based near Cox's Bazar. Such actions align closely with Washington's broader Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to counter Chinese regional influence. Conversely, China's recent joint military exercises with Bangladesh, dubbed 'Golden Friendship-2024', similarly hint at strategic positioning disguised as regional cooperation. These manoeuvres risk drawing Bangladesh into unwanted great-power rivalries, further destabilising an already volatile region. Compounding these threats is the alarming influence of non-state actors. The AA now exerts significant control over a 271-kilometre stretch of Bangladesh's border with Rakhine. Local reports from Bandarban reveal frequent armed AA movements, sometimes seemingly with tacit official tolerance. Should a humanitarian corridor materialise without stringent oversight, there's a genuine risk it would be hijacked to facilitate arms trafficking and insurgent financing, intensifying cross-border conflict and inviting retaliatory actions from Myanmar's junta. Equally concerning is the role of international NGOs, some of which have previously come under suspicion. Dhaka has intensified scrutiny of NGOs after credible allegations emerged regarding espionage and anti-repatriation activism disguised as humanitarian activities. The potential exploitation of humanitarian access by NGOs for espionage purposes is a documented reality elsewhere and must not be underestimated here. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Meanwhile, domestically, Bangladesh's interim government faces growing criticism over its unilateral handling of border security policy. Decisions regarding the humanitarian corridor appear to be detached from military counsel, exacerbating civilian-military tensions and creating exploitable vulnerabilities. The disastrous 2025 BDR massacre exposed critical institutional weaknesses within Bangladesh's security apparatus, revealing precisely how foreign actors might exploit internal fractures. Regional reactions further complicate the scenario. India has strengthened its border surveillance with Bangladesh due to legitimate fears of insurgency spillover and refugee inflows. Yet, ASEAN's continued paralysis regarding Myanmar's crisis leaves Bangladesh increasingly isolated, forcing it into risky unilateral actions. The UN's humanitarian initiative, though well-intentioned, conspicuously lacks safeguards to prevent the corridor's misuse. Without these measures, Bangladesh risks being perceived—rightly or wrongly—as aligning with specific geopolitical agendas, further undermining its diplomatic independence and national sovereignty. Historical lessons offer grim caution. Humanitarian corridors have repeatedly been exploited as instruments of geopolitical manipulation. In Syria and Afghanistan, these corridors turned into conduits for arms trafficking, proxy warfare, and covert foreign bases. The Balkan refugee crisis vividly illustrated how corridors fractured sovereign control, fostering human trafficking and smuggling networks. Such outcomes must compel Bangladesh to reconsider the operational parameters of the corridors rigorously. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Bangladesh now stands at a crossroads. Genuine humanitarian needs in Myanmar must be addressed, but never at the cost of sovereignty or regional stability. Dhaka must demand ironclad international guarantees, including UN-monitored aid operations, binding agreements that prohibit foreign military assets or intelligence activities, and strict oversight of NGO involvement. Simultaneously, a transparent, inclusive national policy debate involving military, civilian leadership, and civil society stakeholders is essential to protect sovereignty, border integrity, and long-term stability. Humanitarian initiatives should alleviate suffering—not serve as backdoors for geopolitical interference. Bangladesh must act decisively to ensure the Chittagong-Rakhine corridor remains exactly what it claims to be: a channel for compassion and not a geopolitical Trojan horse. The writer is the Director General of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies Lt Gen Dushyant Singh (Retd) is Director General, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Arab News
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Arakan Army may be an unexpected ally for the Rohingya
In a striking twist of geopolitical irony, one of the most persecuted Muslim communities in the world — the Rohingya — may find their most realistic path home not through the government of Myanmar or through international institutions, but via an unlikely actor: the Arakan Army. Long viewed with suspicion by the Rohingya themselves and largely ignored by the international community, the Arakan Army has, over the past two years, emerged as the dominant power in Rakhine State. With the Myanmar military regime in rapid retreat and the national unity government struggling to assert territorial control, the Arakan Army now governs 11 of Rakhine's 18 townships. For all intents and purposes, it is the authority that now decides who may live — and return — to western Myanmar. This new reality should not be underestimated. For years, the global response to the Rohingya crisis has hinged on repatriation through negotiations with Myanmar's military or by placing pressure on the Association of Southeast Nations and the UN. Those efforts have categorically failed. Two rounds of repatriation since 2017 — one under the UN and another led by China — resulted in zero returns. The refugees in Bangladesh are disillusioned, aid is running dry and extremism is beginning to fester in the camps. As Prime Minister Mohammed Yunus of Bangladesh warned last week at Chatham House, without urgent action 'an explosion is imminent.' It is precisely this urgency that demands a recalibrated approach. The Arakan Army is not an ideal partner. It has, at times, rejected the term 'Rohingya' and its historical relationship with Muslim communities in Rakhine has been tense. But power transforms actors and the Arakan Army's recent statements — including those by its Commander-in-Chief Twan Mrat Naing — show a remarkable evolution in tone. Power transforms actors and the Arakan Army's recent statements show a remarkable evolution in tone Dr. Azeem Ibrahim The group has indicated it is open to the idea of peaceful coexistence, rule of law and even a phased return of refugees — provided certain conditions are met. In other words, it has moved from being a militant liberation movement to a proto-state willing to talk about governance. This shift opens a narrow but real window for engagement — and the Muslim world must not let it close. Arab and Islamic nations, particularly those in the Gulf and within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, have long expressed solidarity with the Rohingya. But solidarity without strategy is not enough. Now is the time to develop a policy grounded in the new facts on the ground. That means initiating quiet backchannel dialogues with the Arakan Army leadership, exploring what kinds of political, financial or development incentives could nudge them further toward embracing repatriation. Bangladesh cannot do this alone. Dhaka faces tremendous domestic pressure over hosting nearly a million refugees. Its interim prime minister, Yunus, is one of the few regional leaders willing to speak candidly about the crisis and the risk of radicalization if the camps remain neglected. But without regional and Muslim-majority support, Bangladesh lacks the leverage or resources to independently broker a deal with the Arakan Army. Instead of pursuing unrealistic negotiations with the Myanmar junta or waiting for an elusive political settlement from the national unity government, the OIC should work with the Bangladeshi government and trusted international mediators to build a pragmatic roadmap for phased repatriation. Such a plan might include security guarantees from the Arakan Army for returning families; pilot return programs to test integration, with third-party observers; development support for local Rakhine and Muslim communities alike, reducing the risk of economic grievance or communal tension; and legal pathways for the Rohingya to eventually gain recognition and rights under local law. Many Rohingya remain skeptical of the group's intentions. The memory of past abuses and betrayals is still raw Dr. Azeem Ibrahim To be sure, this will require trust-building on all sides. Many Rohingya remain skeptical of the Arakan Army's intentions. The memory of past abuses and betrayals is still raw. But when faced with a choice between permanent exile in squalid refugee camps and a monitored, supported return under new political realities, many may opt to go home — if they believe it is safe. Here, the Muslim world can play a critical role. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkiye and Qatar — all of which have championed Muslim causes globally — can lend both political weight and practical resources to this effort. Their involvement can also reassure the Rohingya that they are not alone and that their fate is not being decided by a new group of armed men, but by a process anchored in international norms and Islamic principles of justice. This will not be an easy path. The Arakan Army still has much to prove. Its rhetoric must be backed by real commitments, including the cessation of discriminatory practices and the inclusion of Rohingya voices in political planning. The national unity government, too, must be encouraged to work constructively with the Arakan Army on this front, rather than cling to abstract ideals divorced from operational control. Ultimately, the Rohingya crisis is a tragedy not just for Myanmar but for the Muslim world. It has exposed our collective inability to protect the vulnerable, to assert moral leadership and to respond with coherence and unity. But if we are willing to think beyond conventional diplomacy and engage with the de facto powers in Rakhine, we may yet chart a way forward. The Arakan Army may not be the ally we expected. But it might be the ally we need — if we are bold enough to engage.
India.com
19-06-2025
- Politics
- India.com
Myanmar's civil war: Rohingya Muslims to fight the Arakan Army, fighters to be recruited from...
Myanmar's civil war: Rohingya Muslims to fight the Arakan Army, fighters to be recruited from... Myanmar's civil war: The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has affected Rakhine state the most. In Rakhine, the Arakan Army (AA) has steadily gained ground against the junta regime in the past months and has captured most of the state. The AA's stance has been against the local Rohingya Muslims. Due to this, Rohingyas have been forced to migrate in large numbers. The result is that many rebel groups have joined the junta in the fight against the AA in Rakhine. This may increase the crisis of Rohingyas taking refuge in Bangladesh. These groups are recruiting fighters in Bangladesh itself. According to the report, a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) says that Rohingya rebel groups have stopped the years-long war to control refugee camps in Bangladesh to focus on the fight for Rakhine. These factions are fighting against the AA with junta troops or allied militias. Junta suffered the most losses in Rakhine Rakhine state in Myanmar is the place where the military government has lost the most ground in the past 18 months. The Arakan Army has taken control of much of northern Rakhine and is preparing to take over the entire state. The junta is bombing resistance-controlled towns and cities with air strikes and trying to mobilize a former archenemy against the AA. In this effort, it seems to be getting support from Rohingya groups. The Rohingya are a predominantly Muslim ethnic group with a long history of persecution in Myanmar. In recent times, the Arakan Army has been accused of committing genocide and trying to expel the Rohingya. Thomas Keane, Melbourne-based ICG advisor to Myanmar and Bangladesh, has said that in the past six months, Rohingya armed groups have stopped their infighting in the camps in southern Bangladesh and have intensified the recruitment of refugees. These groups believe that the only way to return home is to fight the Arakan Army. ARSA will challenge AA A major group challenging the AA is the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). ARSA has become a major force in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. This is a huge camp on the Bangladesh border, where most Rohingya refugees live. ARSA has fought Bangladeshi security forces and other armed groups for control of the camps. Despite the long-standing opposition of the Myanmar military, over the past year, ARSA forces have fought against the AA in local media and ARSA representatives have joined forces with the junta in several operations. This has led to a rise in hate speech on social media, which could pose a new challenge to Bangladesh.
Globe and Mail
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Globe and Mail
Rohingya militants joining the fight for Myanmar's Rakhine, putting refugees at risk
As rebel groups have advanced across Myanmar in the past 18 months, nowhere has the Southeast Asian country's military government lost more ground than in Rakhine state, a strip of land along its western coast, bordering Bangladesh. There, the 45,000-strong Arakan Army has seized control of much of northern Rakhine and now appears poised to take over the entire state, even as the junta has pummelled resistance-held towns and cities with airstrikes and tried to mobilize a former bitter enemy against the AA. Since at least last year, Rohingya militant groups have been fighting the AA, often alongside junta troops or allied militias, and have recently paused a years-long turf war to control refugee camps in Bangladesh in order to concentrate on the battle for Rakhine, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG). A predominantly Muslim ethnic group with a long history of oppression in Myanmar, the Rohingya were targeted by the military in what is now widely recognized as a genocidal campaign in 2016, which left tens of thousands dead and drove the majority of the remaining population into neighbouring Bangladesh, where they have lived in sprawling and increasingly chaotic camps ever since. While Myanmar's parallel National Unity Government – an umbrella group of various ethnic armed organizations and resistance forces – has condemned previous administrations' treatment of the Rohingya and called for their inclusion in a future federal democracy, the Arakan Army, which purports to represents the majority Rakhine ethnic group, has been accused of massacring Rohingya civilians and seeking to drive them out of the region. 'Over the past six months, Rohingya armed groups have paused their turf war in the camps in southern Bangladesh and stepped up recruitment of refugees, telling them the only way to return home is by fighting the Arakan Army,' said Thomas Kean, ICG senior consultant for Myanmar and Bangladesh based in Melbourne. 'Such an insurgency is very unlikely to succeed but could do immense damage on both sides of the border, and undermine any prospect for repatriation of the more than one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.' At the core of this is the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an Islamist armed group whose attacks on Myanmar military posts in 2016 were used as justification for the subsequent genocide. Largely operating in exile ever since, ARSA has become the dominant force in Cox's Bazar, a sprawling camp on the Bangladesh border where the majority of Rohingya refugees live. Over the years, ARSA has fought Bangladeshi security forces and other armed groups for control of the camps and has been accused of murdering civilian leaders who challenge it. Representatives of both AA and ARSA did not respond to requests for comment. In the past, both groups have expressed support for a multi-ethnic Rakhine. The situation for Rohingya in Bangladesh has grown increasingly dire in recent years, with international funding already insufficient before U.S. President Donald Trump moved to slash most of his country's foreign aid spending. The increased desperation in Cox's Bazar has made recruitment easier for armed groups like ARSA, according to multiple reports by aid groups. Since last year, despite longstanding opposition to the Myanmar military, ARSA forces have fought alongside the junta against the AA in multiple operations, according to local media and online statements by ARSA representatives. Fighting between Rohingya armed groups and the AA, 'as well as the presence of Rohingya in regime-controlled militias,' has had a 'ruinous effect on communal relations,' the ICG report warns, and hate speech on social media is growing, echoing a situation around the 2016-2018 crackdown, when genocidal messages spread widely on Facebook and other platforms. Some 200,000 Rohingya have fled Rakhine as a result of the fighting over the past year, according to ICG. Around 400,000 still live in territory controlled by the AA, and as the group becomes the dominant power in the region, it will be pivotal to any negotiations to allow refugees to return, something Bangladesh has long sought despite warnings from the United Nations and others that the situation in Myanmar is too unstable. Mr. Kean said that in order to reduce support for armed struggle among Rohingya refugees, AA 'needs to demonstrate to both Bangladesh and the Rohingya that it can govern Rakhine State in the interests of all communities.' 'Further conflict between Rohingya armed groups and the Arakan Army is in the interest of neither the Rohingya people, Bangladesh nor the Arakan Army,' the ICG report warns. 'Given the Arakan Army's military strength, armed struggle will not succeed in helping the Rohingya return to Rakhine State, and it could have devastating consequences, now that the Arakan Army in effect controls most of the areas where Rohingya remain and all the areas to which refugees would return.'
Economic Times
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Economic Times
Housekeeping time for Bangladesh
Live Events Even as an illegitimate Yunus is being pressured to announce legitimate elections in Bangladesh it is not clear whether it would be either inclusive or fair. India has, as have the Bangladesh army and sundry political formations in the country, rightfully called for the return of a people's mandate for the country at an early reluctance to hold elections by December 2025 seems to be goaded only by a misplaced appetite to hold on to power. Although the narrative that is being peddled is 'reforms before elections' such an argument does not hold water as the correct manner for reforms to be both introduced and enforced should actually rest on a popularly elected government that has the people's mandate. Yunus has no such mandate. He was foisted on a Bangladesh by a foreign power for extra-regional considerations including the creation of 'corridor' to the Rakhine province of Myanmar to facilitate war equipment for the Arakan Army to shore up its war against the Myanmar Army. The fact that even the Bangladesh armed forces have publicised their opposition to such a move showcases Yunus' partisanship and willingness to allow Bangladesh to be used by external any event, fair play necessitates that an inclusive election (as India has called for) cannot be without the Awami League contesting it. Although the secular party's leaders are in exile, hiding or in a state of disarray, the fact of the matter is that 55% of Bangladesh are Awami Leaguers and passionately loyal to Bangladesh's founding principles when it overthrew a malevolent Pakistan in 1971. Today, if they have been coerced into silence it is because of the muzzle of radical Islamism and street terror led by a few mercenaries cloaked in student's attire. The banning of the Awami League is not must make it clear to the world and, of course, to Bangladesh what it means by inclusive elections. By any stretch of imagination, it cannot be without the inclusion of the Awami League, the political party that gave birth to ban on the radical Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has been revoked by Bangladesh's judiciary, paving the way for its participation in elections. It is a recorded fact that Gholam Azam's JeI had collaborated with the rampaging Pakistan army after the onset of Operation Searchlight on 26 March 1971 which resulted in the genocide of the Bengali people in the erstwhile East Pakistan. It is not immediately understood as to how the people who adjudicate in Bangladesh can permit the 'Return of the Razakars' even as it sits mute to the banning of the Awami League, a formation which, as aforesaid, was the prime pronouncement for the formation of a new nation. It has to be admitted that free agency is being feloniously denied in present day manner in which a legitimately elected Sheikh Hasina was ousted, it is now beginning to be understood, had no popular endorsement in Bangladesh. It was nothing but swift overthrow of power, the mechanics of which were engineered by an extraneous power and summarily transported to the streets of other incidental reasons, one of the explanations for Sheikh Hasina's fleeing her homeland was because she resisted pressure from the extra-regional power to use her country as a launching detachment against the Myanmarese junta which the Chinese are was caught in the cross-currents of big power play. The overseas power wants a satellite state in the region and Yunus willingly played into the plot. Even the Chinese who were trying to elbow into the erstwhile East Pakistan were caught off guards. The Chinese do not play chequers in the manner that it has been put out in popular Indian media, but very cautiously and in a calibrated manner even if it means waiting for the turn of a generation. In fact, very little is known about the truth of Lalmonirhat. It is a strong possibility that the plan for a Chinese airbase in Lalmonirhat is yet another propaganda attempt by the West to dupe Op Sindoor brought back some legitimacy to the shores of India it is because of Modi-Shah's high Indian political acumen and ability to rise, rally and redeem for India. Indeed, the only force that stood by the nation and steadfast for God and country was the Indian armed forces. India continues to be fortified because its warriors in land, sea and air came as one to defend and protect. India also succeeded in signalling a measured approach to countering cross-border one aspect that needs to be forcefully flagged in the midst of the 'fog of war' is the fact that the terrorist eco-system has proliferated beyond Pakistan's sponsorship. It has not only reached Bangladesh but into India's vulnerable innards. Recent reports are of the opinion that Islamist tanzeems like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad in concert with radical groups in Bangladesh are planning a massive radicalisation exercise of students in Indian universities. If such sinister anti-India moves are not nipped in the bud, then the nation will careen out of control. Gratefully pre-emptive steps that are correctly being taken in Assam by a farsighted Assamese leadership and the Assam Police, are laudable and must be emulated by the rest of might be questioned as to why is India has suddenly become so protective of answers are simple. First, because it had lent valuable Indian blood during its creation in 1971. Secondly, because it wants to safeguard its backyard from the rise of radical Islamism emanating from Bangladesh that may threaten the North East and in times to come the rest of India and finally to protect the sacred eastern shores from extra-regional planning that must occupy the policy makers in Raisina Hill in the coming weeks and months should be not only to 'archive the pain' that has been endured in Dhaka and Pahalgam in the last several months, but go forward in a positive quest for immediate remedial housekeeping in a country whose socio-political character has an important bearing on India's North Gen Arun Kumar Sahni is a Former Army Commander and GOC Dimapur Corps. Jaideep Saikia is a top strategist and bestselling author.
