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The Diplomat
22-07-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
The 2016 South China Sea Arbitration and the Limits of International Law
The 2016 award did not bring a conclusive resolution to the Philippines' maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea. What other options are there? Nine years have passed since the arbitral tribunal established under Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) issued its renowned award regarding the case brought by the Philippines against China on the legal status of its nine-dashed line and historic rights over the South China Sea. The arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines, and declared China's nine-dashed line and its claimed historic rights over the South China Sea to have no legal basis under the UNCLOS. Since the ruling was released on July 12, 2016, the Chinese government has repeatedly iterated its policy of 'non-acceptance and non-recognition.' On July 12, 2025, the ninth anniversary of the ruling, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson categorically referred to the award as 'nothing but a piece of waste paper that is illegal, null and void, and non-binding.' The Philippines and a handful of its extraregional partners, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Australia, and Canada, issued public commemorations of the award. However, most of the Southeast Asian states aside from the Philippines, including other claimants in the South China Sea disputes, have remained silent. Such regional reticence reflects an unspoken recognition of the limitation of international law in resolving the historically embedded geopolitical disputes, especially when one of the key stakeholders outright rejects its legitimacy. Contrary to many expectations, the 2016 Arbitral Award did not bring the Philippines the conclusive victory in its territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea. Instead, it dragged the Philippines, and on many occasions, the United States too, into a long and fraught war of diplomatic attrition and legal posturing. The contested legacy of the 2016 Arbitral Award – marked by the protracted stalemate between China and the Philippines – calls for a more honest reckoning of the limits of international legal mechanisms in the face of entrenched power politics. Why has the authority of international law failed to bring more stability to the South China Sea, and what other options do we have in pursuit of peaceful South China Sea? Legal Outcome Depends on Political Will The 2016 South China Sea arbitration case laid bare a fundamental truth often overlooked in discussions of international law: the effectiveness of international legal rulings ultimately depends on the political will of the parties involved. Implementation of international law requires enforcement, endorsement, and sustained commitment of capable actors. It is unrealistic to expect voluntary compliance when one of the key parties' national interests is undermined by a legal ruling. This situation is not unique to the South China Sea. On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. However, even after the issuance of the warrant, Putin was still able to travel freely within non-ICC member states, such as his high-profile trip to China in 2024. He even made an official visit to an ICC member state – Mongolia, where he received a warm red carpet welcome with full honors. No attempt was ever made to detain him. In a similar case, the ICC also issued an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in November 2024 for his 'crimes against humanity.' However, merely five months later, Netanyahu was able to make an official visit to Hungary, another ICC member state. The Hungarian government not only refused to fulfill its legal obligations to the ICC by arresting Netanyahu, but the Hungarian prime minister even claimed that Hungary would pull out of the ICC altogether. In both cases mentioned above, the implementation of international legal rulings was not only unsuccessful; they were never meaningfully pursued in the first place. The ICC arrest warrants against Putin and Netanyahu, lacking the necessary support from its own member states, remained merely symbolic in nature, and have failed to produce any tangible results for the two sitting world leaders. The warrants themselves, facing strong political resistance, have been reduced to a statement of principle, instead of an actionable mandate. Successful executions of ICC arrest warrants for a national leader are not entirely without precedent. On March 11, 2025, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in his own country by the Philippine National Police and surrendered to the ICC's custody on March 28. However, Duterte has already ordered the Philippines to withdraw from the ICC, meaning that the government of his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., actually had no legal obligation to comply with the arrest warrant against Duterte. Instead, Duterte's arrest was heavily shadowed by the ongoing rivalry between the two powerful Duterte and Marcos families for domination over domestic politics. Since 2022 – before the relationship between the two families had gone sour – Marcos himself has repeatedly asserted that ICC has no jurisdiction in the Philippines, and that the Philippine government will not cooperate in its investigation against Duterte. However, as frictions mounted between the Marcoses and the Dutertes, the president had a change of heart. When the arrest warrant was delivered to Marcos on March 11, he quickly ordered the arrest of his predecessor on the exact same day. Duterte's arrest has exposed a key fact about the implementation of international law: even in the absence of formal legal obligation, the international legal rulings can still be carried out with zeal if it fits the strategic interests of the sitting government. The Duterte case is not an exemplification of the authority of the ICC, but a result of a confluence between the Philippines' domestic political struggle and international law. The 2016 Arbitral Award Lacks Political Traction Domestically, the 2016 Arbitral Award has become more than a legal matter – it is now widely perceived as a matter of national dignity and identity for China. The profound territorial concessions during China's 'Century of Humiliation' have left a lasting imprint on the national psyche of China. In Chinese political discourse and public consciousness, the integrity of territory – land or sea – has become an intensely sensitive matter. It is politically non-negotiable and has left very little room for any perceived concession or setbacks. Against such a background, accepting an international ruling that categorically declared China's nine-dash line – one that traces back to the eleven-dash line originally published by the Republic of China government in 1947 – as illegal is not only unacceptable, but also politically unviable. Strong resistance from China against the 2016 Arbitral Award was thus inevitable. At the regional and international level, the 2016 Arbitral Award is also struggling to garner sufficient support for its full implementation. On June 14, 2016, weeks before the award came out, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his ASEAN counterparts in Kunming, China for a Special ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting. After the meeting, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued a sternly worded joint statement expressing serious concerns over the recent developments in the South China Sea. However, less than three hours after its release, the joint statement was retracted for 'urgent amendments.' After the Arbitral Award was released on July 12, the 49th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in Vientiane produced a new joint communiqué with significantly softened language avoiding any direct reference to the ruling. Nine years later, ASEAN is still struggling to achieve any consensus regarding the 2016 SCS Arbitration Award. As a result, the 2016 Arbitral Award, despite its legal sophistication, has failed to generate the kind of collective political backing within South China Sea border states that might have enhanced its enforceability. In the absence of a collective regional enforcement mechanism and a unified ASEAN position, Beijing's strategic calculus has remained consistent: the perceived practical costs of compliance continue to outweigh the reputational cost of maintaining its current stance. Structural Limitations of International Law The international legal system lacks a central enforcement mechanism akin to a police force. The effectiveness of international law rulings very much depends on the political will, institutional support, and the strategic interests of states. Such structural limitation has become exceptionally evident in high-stakes geopolitical disputes, where legal outcomes often clash with entrenched national interests, such as in the cases of the ICC arrest warrant of Putin, Netanyahu, and Duterte, and the 2016 South China Sea case. Because of the voluntary compliance nature of international law, when powerful actors view the legal decisions as a violation of their national interest, compliance usually becomes unlikely, if not impossible. The 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award is a case in point: despite UNCLOS and the arbitral tribunal's authority, in the absence of enforcement mechanisms, regional consensus, or any recognition of legitimacy from the Chinese government, the legal ruling has failed to resolve the longstanding dispute between China and the Philippines, one that even predates the establishment of UNCLOS itself. None of this is to say that international law has been irrelevant in resolving regional disputes. On the contrary, it has played an important role in setting legal baselines, shaping global expectations, and providing smaller states with language and leverage in asserting their rights. But an isolated legal decision rendered in the absence of a key party's recognition and participation is unlikely, on its own, to advance the peaceful resolution of a dispute as complex and historically rooted as the South China Sea issue. Without meaningful political engagement from both of the parties involved and mutual recognition of interests, even the most well-founded legal judgment will have very little practical impact in reality. It is more likely to harden the positions of both parties, instead of building consensus. At the end of the day, the resolution of the South China Sea disputes cannot only depend on legal clarity. It also requires political willingness, mutual recognition of each other's core concerns, and meaningful diplomatic engagement. International law should offer a framework for both parties to work with each other towards a resolution – it cannot provide a final answer and expect it to enable its own enforcement without resistance. The materialization of international legal norms into reality should be embedded in dialogue, compromise, and regional political process. In the future, it is critical for both sides, the Chinese government and the Philippines, to commit to sustained, good-faith engagement – seeking not to impose unilateral outcomes, but to manage differences through pragmatic cooperation and a shared commitment to regional stability.
GMA Network
14-07-2025
- Politics
- GMA Network
PH asserts 2016 arbitral ruling during forum hosted by Chinese think tank
The Philippine Embassy in Beijing has strongly reaffirmed the country's sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea, citing the landmark 2016 arbitral award, during a forum hosted by a Chinese think tank just days before the ruling's ninth anniversary. The forum, which gathered legal scholars, policy experts, and regional analysts, was predominantly critical of the arbitral ruling and the Philippines' actions in the disputed waters. In a press statement, the embassy said the Philippine delegation used the opportunity to assert the ruling's legal weight and continuing relevance under international law. 'The Award, along with its annexes, proves the validity and legality of Philippine claims, and they are available for everyone to study and read,' the Embassy's representative said during a plenary intervention. The ruling, handed down by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016, invalidated China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea—particularly those within the so-called 'nine-dash line'—and affirmed that such claims had no legal basis under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Responding to accusations made during the forum that the Philippines was acting as a "troublemaker" in the region, the Philippine representative pushed back firmly, emphasizing Manila's commitment to diplomacy and constructive engagement. 'We disagree with the notion that the Philippines is not willing to engage with China. In fact, even with the Arbitral Award, the Philippines has continued to make efforts to keep lines of communication open, maintain proper dialogue, and engage positively with China as well as other claimant States, both bilaterally and regionally, within the context of our legally settled claims in accordance with UNCLOS and international law,' the official said. The Embassy added: 'We hope China's actions demonstrate genuine willingness to engage and to produce constructive and positive outcomes.' The forum took place amid heightened regional tensions and increasing international attention on the South China Sea. This year marks the ninth year since the 2016 ruling, which has been backed by several countries including the United States, Japan, Australia, and members of the European Union. However, China has repeatedly rejected the ruling, continuing to assert its expansive maritime claims and build artificial islands and outposts in contested areas. On Sunday, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) said it monitored two vessels of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA) of China in the waters off Occidental Mindoro. Tensions continue as Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled in favor of the Philippinesover China's claims in the South China Sea, but the latter refused to recognize the decision. —Sherylin Untalan/AOL, GMA Integrated News
Filipino Times
12-07-2025
- Politics
- Filipino Times
DND reaffirms commitment to 2016 arbitral ruling on South China Sea
The Department of National Defense (DND) reaffirmed the Philippines' commitment to the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the South China Sea on Saturday, emphasizing that the landmark decision underscores the importance of upholding international law in maritime disputes. In a statement marking the ninth anniversary of the ruling, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said the Arbitral Award remains a clear affirmation of the country's sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea. 'The Philippines, a nation committed to peace and principled engagement, views this Award not just as a cornerstone of our foreign and security policy, but as an irreducible truth,' Teodoro said. The defense chief emphasized that the arbitral decision, which invalidated China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea, is not merely a legal document, but 'a resounding declaration that the only legitimate guide for the conduct of nations is the rule of law – never the imposition of might.' He further asserted that no degree of external pressure, revisionist interpretation, or geopolitical maneuvering can invalidate that truth. Teodoro also underscored that asserting the country's sovereign rights is not an act of provocation but a duty of the Philippine government. 'Defending our sovereign rights and jurisdiction is not an act of provocation. It is the sacred and fundamental duty of the Republic – an expression of our responsibility to our nation, to the Filipino people, and to the countless generations of Filipinos who will inherit this sacred trust,' he said. Issued on July 12, 2016, the PCA ruling favored the Philippines in its case against China and ruled that Beijing's nine-dash line claim had no legal basis under international law.
GMA Network
12-07-2025
- Politics
- GMA Network
PH Navy conducts 'siren salute' for 9th anniv of WPS arbitral ruling
Philippine Navy assets across the country on Saturday held a 'siren salute,' or the simultaneous sounding of their horns, in commemoration of the ninth anniversary of the 2016 arbitral award on the South China Sea favoring the Philippines. The siren salute is a naval tradition which symbolizes unity, tribute, and continuity, and reminds coastal communities of the commitment to defend the nation's seas and uphold maritime heritage. 'The symbolic act also echoes the Navy's resolve to defend what is rightfully Filipino, as enshrined in the 2016 Arbitral Award and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),' it said. To recall, the Philippines in 2016 won a landmark arbitration case which invalidated China's expansive claims and upheld the Philippines' exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. 'Guided by the Arbitral Award, the Philippine Navy continues to strengthen its capabilities, sharpen its maritime posture, and deepen cooperation with like-minded nations that respect international law,' the Philippine Navy said. —VAL, GMA Integrated News
GMA Network
12-07-2025
- Politics
- GMA Network
DFA: 2016 arbitral win an 'illuminating precedent' for states facing same sea challenges
As the Philippines commemorates its 2016 victory in the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), which invalidated China's encompassing claims in South China, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Saturday said the nine-year-old arbitral ruling has since served as a guide in peaceful resolution of maritime territorial disputes. 'It is an illuminating precedent for States facing similarly challenging circumstances in the seas, and the clearest of reminders to the international community that the rule of law can be the great equalizer between and among nations, and serve as the bedrock of peace and stability for the international community,' the DFA said in a statement. 'Since its promulgation by the Arbitral Tribunal, this Arbitral Award continues to serve as a guide for the peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law and its dispute settlement mechanisms, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which is considered the legal framework within which all activities in the oceans and seas must be carried out,' it said. On July 12, 2016, the PCA based in The Hague, Netherlands issued a ruling on the case filed by the Philippines in January 2013. The case hinges on the legal status of reefs, rocks and artificial islands in the Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Island group. Manila's 15-point case critically asked the tribunal to rule on the status of China's so-called "nine-dash line", a boundary that is the basis for its 69-year-old claim to roughly 85% of the South China Sea. The Arbitral court ruled in favor of the Philippines and invalidated China's 'nine-dash line' claim, which virtually covers the entire South China Sea. 'Now entrenched in international jurisprudence, this historic ruling has been cited by the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in rendering their decisions, further reinforcing the legitimacy and finality of the 2016 Arbitral Award,' the DFA said. The Foreign Affairs department added that the Philippines continues to honor the PCA ruling 'by its commitment to both enhancing public awareness of maritime entitlements and other rights and obligations under the UNCLOS, and leveraging more partnerships with like-minded countries in upholding the rule of law.' 'Along with the UNCLOS, the Arbitral Award will continue to be a cornerstone of Philippine maritime policy and the country's unflinching advocacy for a rules-based order governed by international law. The Filipino nation will always look to the enduring guidance of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea in asserting its rights and entitlements in its maritime domain and in protecting its sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction,' the DFA said. Nine years since the PCA victory, tensions continue as Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, including parts that fall within Manila's exclusive economic zone — calling it as the West Philippine Sea. China has repeatedly refused to recognize the PCA ruling and said it does not accept any claim or action based on the ruling. The Philippines on Friday renewed its call to China to comply with the arbitration ruling, saying all countries, 'regardless of size, might, or capacity must meet their duties and obligations' under international law. Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro made the call a day before the anniversary of the July 12, 2016 ruling by The Hague tribunal that she said 'sets reason and right in the South China Sea.' —KG, GMA Integrated News
