Latest news with #Armenia-Azerbaijan
TechCrunch
10 hours ago
- Business
- TechCrunch
This founder left Silicon Valley to challenge U.S. defense supremacy from Athens, and investors are paying attention
In the summer of 2021, Dimitrious Kottas made a move that would be unfathomable to most Silicon Valley engineers: after leaving his coveted position at Apple's Special Projects Group, he packed up his life in California and moved back to Athens to start a defense company. Three and a half years later, his startup, Delian Alliance Industries, has set up solar-powered surveillance towers that monitor some of Greece's borders around the clock and detect wildfires on remote islands, along with a pipeline of other products, including concealed sea drones designed to keep enemies at bay. But Kottas' most ambitious bet isn't on any particular technology — it's really that a small Greek startup can break through Europe's notoriously fragmented defense market. This may seem less of a gamble today, especially as defense tech has never been hotter, but Kottas' path to Delian has been a long work in progress, as he told this editor over a recent Zoom call. After earning recognition for his academic work at the University of Minnesota on GPS-denied navigation – research that he says has been cited over 1,400 times – he joined Apple in 2016, where he spent six years working on autonomous systems featuring cameras, lidars, and radars. While he said he can't discuss specifics due to confidentiality agreements, the technologies he co-developed at Apple's secretive division clearly helped inform what Delian is building. 'At the heart of autonomy is perception,' Kottas explained, describing how machines must understand not just where objects are but what they're doing and what they intend to do. 'This lies at the heart of autonomy, and given autonomy is going to be at the heart of all future weapon systems, that's the core technology that's going to drive change in the defense industry over the next decade.' It wasn't just technological insight that drove his career change, though. A series of geopolitical events — watching the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict; seeing countries look to revise their surrounding borders; and recognizing how far behind European militaries had fallen — had begun gnawing at him. 'I literally lost sleep,' he said. Techcrunch event Tech and VC heavyweights join the Disrupt 2025 agenda Netflix, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Sequoia Capital — just a few of the heavy hitters joining the Disrupt 2025 agenda. They're here to deliver the insights that fuel startup growth and sharpen your edge. Don't miss the 20th anniversary of TechCrunch Disrupt, and a chance to learn from the top voices in tech — grab your ticket now and save up to $675 before prices rise. Tech and VC heavyweights join the Disrupt 2025 agenda Netflix, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Sequoia Capital — just a few of the heavy hitters joining the Disrupt 2025 agenda. They're here to deliver the insights that fuel startup growth and sharpen your edge. Don't miss the 20th anniversary of TechCrunch Disrupt, and a chance to learn from the top voices in tech — grab your ticket now and save up to $675 before prices rise. San Francisco | REGISTER NOW Rather than attempting to build the next-generation fighter jet, Kottas began with something pragmatic that he could sell more immediately: surveillance towers. The move was seemingly ripped from the playbook of eight-year-old weapons maker Anduril, which started off with software-augmented surveillance towers that it sold to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. But Delian's newer products reveal bigger ambitions. The 'Interceptigon' series features concealed autonomous aerial and sea drones and vessels designed to lie dormant until threats appear. The most striking example is a two-meter suicide vessel that comes packed in a cylinder and is deployable months in advance on the seabed at depths where satellites and drones can't detect it. When remotely activated, it appears 'out of nowhere to the enemy,' Kottas told TechCrunch, adding that Delian has patented this approach, which uses commercial materials to manufacture the weapons at 'large scale and really at extremely low cost.' It's a model that Kottas says doesn't exist elsewhere in the Western defense industry. It has also attracted investors who just provided Delian with $14 million in funding. Indeed, the startup announced on Tuesday that its earlier backers, Air Street Capital and Marathon Venture Capital, have led its newest capital infusion, which brings Delian's total funding to date to $22 million. Here's where Kottas' story gets more complicated. Despite Delian's technological achievements and operational success in Greece, the broader European market remains a formidable challenge. U.S. officials have reportedly been pressuring European countries to continue buying weapons from U.S. outfits. Further, European countries have long favored their homegrown defense companies, a tendency that some investors believe will make it difficult for startups like Delian to scale across borders. 'That concern is stronger right now in France,' Kottas acknowledged, though he argued the landscape is changing. And as evidence that fragmentation is being overcome, he pointed to European Union initiatives like Safe and ReARM Europe, designed to encourage cross-border defense cooperation. The proof, he insisted, is already emerging, with companies like Portugal's Tekever achieving unicorn status, and Germany's Quantum Systems competing globally. 'There are companies that raised […] a tenth of what their U.S. competitors raised, and they competed on the exact same market, and the European counterpart won.' Naturally, the question is what Kottas thinks of Anduril, and the founder is respectful, though not intimidated. 'It's definitely a generational company that is going to inspire many founders and military officers all across the planet,' he said. But he cautioned against assuming early winners. 'Where we stand right now, it's like 2015 for self-driving cars […] Imagine trying to predict the winner back then.' Still, the question remains whether a Greek startup — no matter how innovative — can convince French, German or British defense establishments to bet their national security on foreign technology. Kottas recently submitted a bid for a German tender, a test case for his thesis that European fragmentation can be overcome through superior technology and competitive pricing. In the meantime, what may set Kottas apart from many defense tech entrepreneurs is how personal the mission feels. Referring to U.S. aerospace and defense giant Lockheed Martin, Kottas reflected that it's 'different to build weapons in New Mexico that are going to be used on the other side of the planet,' he reflects. 'That's one mindset, [but] it's different to build something that you know may be used to save your brother or your sister or your neighbor.' This sentiment may prove Delian's greatest asset, as it's shared by entrepreneurs across Europe who view conflict not as an abstract possibility but as a lived reality. It drives the company's focus on low-cost, rapidly deployable systems that can be churned out at scale, and explains its emphasis on tech that can be pre-positioned and activated when needed. It might also ultimately convince other European nations that geography matters more than nationality when it comes to defense. Either way, Kottas' unconventional journey from Athens to Minneapolis to Apple and back to Athens suggests he's comfortable with long odds. The founder feels there's a 'benefit of building a company' in a smaller market on a continent known for its fragmentation. 'It forces you to be more resilient, more efficient, and to focus ruthlessly on building great technology at a really low price point, which matters in this business.' 'I do think fragmentation will be overcome in the coming years, and you can turn it to your advantage if you play it right.'
Middle East Eye
5 days ago
- Business
- Middle East Eye
Why Trump is trying to put his seal on an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal
The US is using "magic" to bring Armenia and Azerbaijan together for a peace deal, US President Donald Trump says. As the two historic foes appear to inch closer to an agreement, the Trump administration is conjuring diplomacy in the South Caucasus - fairly uncharted waters for the US. In May, Trump's billionaire Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said that Armenia and Azerbaijan could both join the Abraham Accords - the normalisation agreement that Israel signed with Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco in 2020 - after a deal between the two. Trump considers the accords a signature part of his foreign policy. Then, in July, Trump's other good friend and billionaire envoy, Tom Barrack, said the US was ready to sign a 100-year lease on a strategic transit corridor on Armenia's border with Iran. Baku wants to use the sliver of land, referred to as the Zangezur Corridor by Turkey and Azerbaijan, to connect with its exclave, called Nakhchivan, and eventually Turkey, where Barrack is also the US ambassador. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Trump's bid to put his stamp on a peace agreement through economic deals and the Abraham Accords comes as the South Caucasus is in flux. Trump, Turkey and a diplomatic win Russia, the region's historic great power, is tied down on the battlefields of Ukraine. Its prestige as a security guarantor was undermined in 2023 when Azerbaijan wrested back control of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia in a lightning offensive. Christian Armenia had long relied on Russia for support against Turkic Azerbaijan. To the south, Iran - which has deepened its ties with Armenia and is wary of Israel's security links to Baku - is trying to regroup after a blistering 12-day conflict with Israel. Tehran's ability to project power abroad was clipped by Israel's takedown of its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria late last year. 'The status quo benefits Iran a lot. Right now it is the only connector between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan' - Alen Shadunts, American University of Armenia With Russia distracted in Ukraine and Iran on the back foot, Turkey's power in the region is growing. The US itself is signalling that it can work with Turkey as the predominant external power in Syria. Barrack's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, experts say, is further evidence that Washington sees Ankara as a new regional power in the South Caucasus. "Trump doesn't have a stake in either Armenia or Azerbaijan. But he sees that a deal is possible. A win," George Meneshian, an Athens-based expert on the Middle East and Caucasus, told Middle East Eye. The US's foray into the region is led by Barack, who has been well received in Ankara. That has fueled concerns that Trump sees the region as an extension of Turkey's neighbourhood, Meneshian added. "The US is already giving Turkey its own zone of influence in Syria. That is clear. The same is happening in the South Caucasus," he said. The goodwill was visible on Tuesday when Trump shared a social media post of Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev thanking him for his "aspiration" to end the dispute with Armenia. Aliyev praised Trump's "fundamental values, including family values" that he said mirror Azerbaijan's. From Syria and Gaza to Ukraine and the Caucasus The idea of the US leasing the corridor is in keeping with the Trump administration giving primacy to economic dealmaking, including with US control over physical assets, in conflict zones. It has had mixed results. Earlier this year, Trump said the US would take over the Gaza Strip, evict Palestinians and turn it into the Middle East's "Riviera". That proposal was widely slammed as calling for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. Israel continues to invoke the "Trump plan" to insist on the forced displacement of Palestinians. The US backed off after resistance from its Arab allies. 'Trump doesn't care about the European Union. In the Caucasus, that is especially obvious' - George Meneshian, Caucasus expert Trump's penchant for business deals in countries where sectarian and regional tensions are rife has been better received by Turkey and Gulf states in Syria, where he has pushed through the speedy lifting of sanctions. The Zangezur Corridor idea seems to fall closer to the minerals deal Trump signed with Ukraine in April. That agreement set up a joint fund to monetise Ukraine's mineral wealth. Earlier this year, Trump also said EU states would purchase air-defence systems from the US on Ukraine's behalf. Azerbaijan, a major gas exporter, flaunts the sort of energy riches that Trump prizes, but Armenia is poor. The South Caucasus's value to the US is that the region is crisscrossed by trade routes, including the Middle Corridor that aims to link Asia and Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran. Peter Frankopan, an expert on trade routes at the University of Oxford, told MEE that having a third party operate the corridor "is not a bad idea in principle", but faces obstacles. "First, the US proposal is that it is a commercial endeavour – which means it needs to be run for profit. So an operator needs to be clear and certain that it can make a return on investments," he said. In January, Armenia replaced Russian troops at its southern border crossing to Iran with its own forces. Moscow continued to oversee the crossing after the collapse of the Soviet Union. "Russia is likely to react badly to any US presence [in the corridor], whether commercial or notionally benign," Frankopan, the author of Silk Roads, added. A US presence would also unnerve Iran. 'If the border opens, Iran loses' The Islamic Republic of Iran and Armenia enjoy good ties. Iran's parliament allocates three seats for members of its Armenian minority. Earlier this year, the two conducted joint military drills. Both countries are wary of Turkey and Azerbaijan's growing power in the region. "The status quo benefits Iran a lot," Alen Shadunts, an Iran specialist at the American University of Armenia, told MEE. "Iran right now is the only connector between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan." With no direct land link now, Azerbaijani trucks have to pass through Iran to reach the exclave. Azerbaijan also relies on Iran to help supply electricity to Nakchivan. That has been a source of leverage for Iran to use against Azerbaijan since the end of the Cold War. "If the border opens, Iran is going to lose," Shadunts said. "There are suspicions of an Israeli presence in Azerbaijan already. If an American company comes in and leases the corridor, Iran may see that as encirclement." Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) shaking hands with Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (L) during a meeting in Tehran on 30 July 2024 (ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP) Iran has also received a $1.4bn loan from Russia to complete a rail link for the International North-South Transport Corridor that will run from Russia through Azerbaijan to Iran's coast. The route is intended to cut travel time between India and Russia. Trade between the two hit $68bn in 2024 - more than four times the amount it stood at before western sanctions were slapped on Russia in response to the Ukraine war. Azerbaijan already has deep security ties with Israel. Baku has been hosting talks between Syria and Israel. The city is so swarming with Israeli spies that Iranian officials have accidentally bumped into them at the same restaurant, MEE has reported. Armenia also has diplomatic relations with Israel. But Steve Witkoff said in May that the US was looking to bring both countries into the Abraham Accords. Regional analysts say that could mean more economic ties. "Armenia is interested in connectivity with Israel. Any regional project could be a lifeline for resource-poor Armenia," Shadunts said. Will the US manage the Zangezur Corridor? Barrack's offer to lease the Zangezur Corridor faced backlash in Armenia. Experts say the idea for a 100-year lease that Barrack floated in public would go against Armenia's constitution. Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan is already under pressure from an escalating feud with Armenia's Catholic Apostolic Church and faces resentment from pro-Russian voters who are wary of the country's tilt to the US. 'The US proposal is a commercial endeavour – which means it needs to be run for profit' Peter Frankopan, author Silk Roads Pashinyan's bid to reach a peace deal with Azerbaijan, with an eye towards normalising with Armenia's bigger neighbour, Turkey, has been met with wariness. Resentment and anger over Ottoman atrocities against Armenian Christians in the final years of WWI, which many historians label a genocide, still feel warm to the touch. Armenia is still reeling from its 2023 military loss to Azerbaijan, and is worried its neighbour harbours territorial designs on its southern Syunik province, where the corridor sits. For its part, Azerbaijan does not want the corridor to be controlled strictly by Armenia. "They're arguing over 32 kilometres of road, but this is no joke. It's been going on for a decade – 32 kilometres of road," Barrack said earlier this month in a press briefing. "So what happens is America comes in and says, 'Okay, we'll take it over. Give us the 32 kilometres of road on a hundred-year lease, and you can all share it'." Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at a military parade, 8 November 2023 (AFP) Pashinyan confirmed in July that the US gave "proposals" to manage the corridor. The idea has been around for years, Olesya Vartanyan, a conflict analyst in the South Caucasus, told MEE: "Before the Americans, the Europeans were floating this." She said it drew inspiration from projects in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan's northern neighbour. More than a decade ago, Switzerland mediated a US-backed deal that saw corridors established through two breakaway Georgian regions controlled by Russia to enable trade. European powers floated a corridor deal based on that model to Armenia and Azerbaijan. "People in the region were waiting for Trump to come in. There is an interest to engage with the administration. It's not like they have a well-crafted plan, but the Americans are willing to adjust." Barrack's comments caught many US diplomats off guard, one former US official briefed by colleagues told MEE. "This is very top-down. Barrack is a one-man show. He has a relationship with Erdogan and Trump. He feels that is all he needs," the official said. The Trump administration's language, as well as those involved in the diplomacy efforts, seem to suggest that this US government sees the South Caucasus as closer to the Arab Middle East than Europe. "Trump doesn't care about the European Union. In the Caucasus, that is especially obvious," Meneshian told MEE. 'Turkey is in the middle of all of it, just like Azerbaijan and Armenia' Tom Barrack, US envoy and Ambassador to Turkey Meneshian said the focus on the Abraham Accords "says something" about the true balance of power on the ground. In 2023, the UAE emerged as the largest source of Foreign Direct Investment in Armenia. The Emirates state-owned renewable energy company Masdar is working on construction of Armenia's largest solar energy plant. It already has a plant in Azerbaijan. Latching onto that trade would help Witkoff package a deal to Trump with his seal on it. But the US does face real economic competition. Last week, Armenia applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Chinese-led regional security and trade club. "It's dealing and trading with everybody," Barrack said. "Where East meets West with the Bosphorus and Dardanelles; with the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Spice Road – everything comes through there. "Turkey is in the middle of all of it, just like Azerbaijan and Armenia."
Saudi Gazette
11-07-2025
- Politics
- Saudi Gazette
Armenia and Azerbaijan move closer to peace, pushing Russia out from the South Caucasus
YEREVAN — Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting on Thursday in Abu Dhabi to discuss next steps in finalising the peace agreement, their offices confirmed. This is the first formal bilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan since they agreed on the draft text of the peace agreement, following nearly four decades of conflict. The results of this meeting will ultimately shape the future of the South Caucasus not only because of what the two leaders agree upon, but also because of Russia being for the first time absent from the Armenia-Azerbaijan equation. Richard Giragosian, Founding Director of the Regional Studies Centre (RSC), an independent think tank in Yerevan, told Euronews, 'with Russia overwhelmed by its failed invasion of Ukraine, this is very much at the exclusion of Russia'. And this exclusion is not coming from Moscow's initiative. Baku and Yerevan have both been distancing themselves from the Kremlin as their relations with Russia have deteriorated significantly over the past few years. The meeting in Abu Dhabi also follows a similar bilateral meeting between the Armenian premier and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in what Giragosian said was 'a degree of surprising progress on both diplomatic tracks in this difficult post-war landscape.'While bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow has been gradually losing its influence in the ex-Soviet space. The most striking change in this sense is the loss of Russia's decades-long stronghold in the South Caucasus September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed complete control of the Karabakh region after a lightning military campaign, following a decades-long conflict with Armenia in which the Kremlin was a central actor.'It exposed the emptiness of a security reliance on Russia, but I would also say Armenia and Azerbaijan ironically share a same pursuit, a policy to defy Moscow pushing back and pushing out Russia from the South Caucasus', Giragosian two years later, Yerevan and Baku are making history away from Russia by agreeing on the text of a peace accord and normalising their relations after a bloody conflict that until recently had no end in Karabakh military campaign demonstrated to Armenia what Syria's and Iran's regimes found out later – Russia is not stepping in to support its allies when they need told Euronews that Armenia realised this even sooner, in 2020, during the six-week escalation in Karabakh, 'where Russia was more realistically seen as dangerously unreliable.'Now that the region is "no longer the instrument of leverage for Russia', he said, Moscow will inevitably look for another way of keeping its influence over the South has been trying to repair the cooperation with its former ally. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan on 20 May, signalling the Kremlin's intent to stabilise and reinforce ties with is now also subject to two separate Russian disinformation campaigns, according to Giragosian. The first focuses on reports of Russian military buildup at their base in Armenia's second-largest city, said part of the reason for this campaign is Russia's attempt to both scare the European Union, which has deployed monitors to Armenia, and to put pressure on the government in Yerevan as it moves closer to military intelligence (HUR) published what it claims to be a Russian army order to increase its military presence at a base in Armenia. Yerevan categorically denied the claims that Russia is strengthening its presence in second disinformation campaign, Giragosian said, calling it 'equally absurd', includes a Russian allegation of 'a bio weapons facility in Armenia orchestrated by the Americans'.Moscow had repeatedly made similar claims about US bio-weapons facilities in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion. Russia has also made similar false claims about Georgia in the campaigns, Giragosian said, point to Russia's weakness. 'Russia has lost a large degree of power and influence in the South Caucasus as well as Central Asia. This, however, is temporary. It's an aberration. We do see a storm on the horizon," he individuals, including two archbishops from the Apostolic Church, were arrested in Armenia at the end of June on the accusations of plotting a Minister Pashinyan said that law enforcement had foiled a large-scale and sinister plan by a "criminal oligarchic clergy" to destabilise the Republic of Armenia and seize power.A few days before these arrests, Armenian authorities detained Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin who controls the operator of Armenia's national power grid, who also has political his arrest, Karapetyan expressed his support and backing for the church, saying that 'a small group of people who have forgotten the thousand-year history of Armenia and the church' were attacking the religious institution.'I have always stood with the Armenian Church and the Armenian people,' the billionaire said, adding what seemed to be a direct indicator of his intentions: 'If the politicians do not succeed, we will intervene in our own way in this campaign against the church.'When asked about the attempted coup, Giragosian told Euronews the situation is 'both more than it seems, but also less than it seems.''In the broader context, this was actually the fifth of a coup attempt against the Armenian democratically elected government (since the elections in 2018 when Pashinyan came to power)," he said."None of these five attempts have been very serious. And a lot of the moves against the Armenian government are designed to appeal for Russian support rather than driven by Russian activity'.Even if Moscow wanted to intervene more in Armenia, Giragosian said, it cannot with how 'Russia remains overwhelmed by everything Ukraine' and how it is perceived in as well as other Russian neighbours, have already drawn their conclusions from 'Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine,' Giragosian told Euronews.'A significant lesson learned from the Ukrainian battlefield is the surprising weakness and incompetence of the Russian armed forces. That's an important lesson for all of the countries in the near or broad, Russia's neighbours.'The second lesson is 'Armenia's future is much more in the West, and there is no longer a nostalgia for authoritarian leadership in the model of Vladimir Putin'.'Russia is largely to blame for its arrogance and for taking Armenia for granted. In other words, what we see is Armenia reasserting independence, strengthening sovereignty at the expense of years of over-dependence on Russia.'In early 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a bill aimed at starting the process of joining the European Union – an ultimately hostile step as far as Moscow is also realised the risk of being on the wrong side of history 'if we look at Russia's egregious crimes against Ukraine," Giragosian losing its influence in the region with Azerbaijan and Armenia distancing themselves from the former ally will leave a dangerous vacuum of power, Giragosian said. 'Azerbaijan is quite correct, as is Armenia, in rejecting any mediating role for Russia.'There are concerns and expectations that 'an angry, vengeful Russia will lash out at all of her neighbours seeking to regain that lost influence'.And although now Russia remains overwhelmed by its all-out war against Ukraine, there is a clear understanding that 'this distraction will not last forever,' especially as Armenia is to hold elections next will be closely watching Moldova, where the upcoming parliamentary elections have already been targeted by Russia's disinformation campaigns and attempted manipulation of the voters' opinion at an unprecedented this regard, Armenia is increasing its cooperation with the EU.'Armenian transactional approach is prudent because it's incremental. It's not looking to NATO membership or anything overly provocative," Giragosian said."But I do think Armenia's democratic credentials, legitimacy and outlook for stability really strengthen Armenia to defy any kind of submission to Putin's Russia.'At the same time, Yerevan is also normalising its relations with Turkey.'Turkey seeks to regain its lost regional leadership role', Giragosian says, pointing to the economics of this situation, as Ankara is looking at reopening the border with Armenia to stabilise the east of Turkey.'We do expect a degree of a win-win situation in terms of a restoration of trade and transport. That's driving much of this diplomatic progress', he said, adding that Russia will still try to restore its influence.'Russia will, if it's smart, seek to play a managing role in the restoration of trade and transport, especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan," the strategy Armenia has already been pushing back against, according to Giragosian, as 'Russia is so deeply unpopular and distrusted in Armenia."However, the real challenge is to prepare for what is to come, not the changes in Armenia, as Giragosian warned, but those coming from Russia.'We have to prepare for another scenario. For the day after Putin, a weak Russia with a power struggle in Moscow is an equally serious challenge in the region,' he concluded. — Euronews
Euronews
10-07-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Armenia and Azerbaijan move closer to peace, pushing Russia out
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting on Thursday in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to discuss next steps in finalising the peace agreement, their offices confirmed. This is the first formal bilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan since they agreed on the draft text of the peace agreement, following nearly four decades of conflict. The results of this meeting will ultimately shape the future of the South Caucasus not only because of what the two leaders agree upon, but also because of Russia being for the first time absent from the Armenia-Azerbaijan equation. Richard Giragosian, Founding Director of the Regional Studies Centre (RSC), an independent think tank in Yerevan, told Euronews, 'with Russia overwhelmed by its failed invasion of Ukraine, this is very much at the exclusion of Russia'. And this exclusion is not coming from Moscow's initiative. Baku and Yerevan have both been distancing themselves from the Kremlin as their relations with Russia have deteriorated significantly over the past few years. The meeting in Abu Dhabi also follows a similar bilateral meeting between the Armenian premier and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in what Giragosian said was 'a degree of surprising progress on both diplomatic tracks in this difficult post-war landscape.' Moscow's former allies While bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow has been gradually losing its influence in the ex-Soviet space. The most striking change in this sense is the loss of Russia's decades-long stronghold in the South Caucasus region. In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed complete control of the Karabakh region after a lightning military campaign, following a decades-long conflict with Armenia in which the Kremlin was a central actor. 'It exposed the emptiness of a security reliance on Russia, but I would also say Armenia and Azerbaijan ironically share a same pursuit, a policy to defy Moscow pushing back and pushing out Russia from the South Caucasus', Giragosian said. Almost two years later, Yerevan and Baku are making history away from Russia by agreeing on the text of a peace accord and normalising their relations after a bloody conflict that until recently had no end in sight. Azerbaijan's Karabakh military campaign demonstrated to Armenia what Syria's and Iran's regimes found out later – Russia is not stepping in to support its allies when they need it. Giragosian told Euronews that Armenia realised this even sooner, in 2020, during the six-week escalation in Karabakh, 'where Russia was more realistically seen as dangerously unreliable.' Now that the region is "no longer the instrument of leverage for Russia', he said, Moscow will inevitably look for another way of keeping its influence over the South Caucasus. Destabilising Armenia Moscow has been trying to repair the cooperation with its former ally. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan on 20 May, signalling the Kremlin's intent to stabilise and reinforce ties with Armenia. Armenia is now also subject to two separate Russian disinformation campaigns, according to Giragosian. The first focuses on reports of Russian military buildup at their base in Armenia's second-largest city, Gumri. Giragosian said part of the reason for this campaign is Russia's attempt to both scare the European Union, which has deployed monitors to Armenia, and to put pressure on the government in Yerevan as it moves closer to Europe. Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) published what it claims to be a Russian army order to increase its military presence at a base in Armenia. Yerevan categorically denied the claims that Russia is strengthening its presence in Armenia. The second disinformation campaign, Giragosian said, calling it 'equally absurd', includes a Russian allegation of 'a bio weapons facility in Armenia orchestrated by the Americans'. Moscow had repeatedly made similar claims about US bio-weapons facilities in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion. Russia has also made similar false claims about Georgia in the past. These campaigns, Giragosian said, point to Russia's weakness. 'Russia has lost a large degree of power and influence in the South Caucasus as well as Central Asia. This, however, is temporary. It's an aberration. We do see a storm on the horizon," he explained. 'Storm on the horizon' Fifteen individuals, including two archbishops from the Apostolic Church, were arrested in Armenia at the end of June on the accusations of plotting a coup. Prime Minister Pashinyan said that law enforcement had foiled a large-scale and sinister plan by a "criminal oligarchic clergy" to destabilise the Republic of Armenia and seize power. A few days before these arrests, Armenian authorities detained Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin who controls the operator of Armenia's national power grid, who also has political ambitions. Before his arrest, Karapetyan expressed his support and backing for the church, saying that 'a small group of people who have forgotten the thousand-year history of Armenia and the church' were attacking the religious institution. 'I have always stood with the Armenian Church and the Armenian people,' the billionaire said, adding what seemed to be a direct indicator of his intentions: 'If the politicians do not succeed, we will intervene in our own way in this campaign against the church.' When asked about the attempted coup, Giragosian told Euronews the situation is 'both more than it seems, but also less than it seems.' 'In the broader context, this was actually the fifth of a coup attempt against the Armenian democratically elected government (since the elections in 2018 when Pashinyan came to power)," he said. "None of these five attempts have been very serious. And a lot of the moves against the Armenian government are designed to appeal for Russian support rather than driven by Russian activity'. Even if Moscow wanted to intervene more in Armenia, Giragosian said, it cannot with how 'Russia remains overwhelmed by everything Ukraine' and how it is perceived in Armenia. Ukraine factor in the South Caucasus Armenia, as well as other Russian neighbours, have already drawn their conclusions from 'Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine,' Giragosian told Euronews. 'A significant lesson learned from the Ukrainian battlefield is the surprising weakness and incompetence of the Russian armed forces. That's an important lesson for all of the countries in the near or broad, Russia's neighbours.' The second lesson is 'Armenia's future is much more in the West, and there is no longer a nostalgia for authoritarian leadership in the model of Vladimir Putin'. 'Russia is largely to blame for its arrogance and for taking Armenia for granted. In other words, what we see is Armenia reasserting independence, strengthening sovereignty at the expense of years of over-dependence on Russia.' In early 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a bill aimed at starting the process of joining the European Union – an ultimately hostile step as far as Moscow is concerned. Yerevan also realised the risk of being on the wrong side of history 'if we look at Russia's egregious crimes against Ukraine," Giragosian added. Vacuum of power in South Caucasus Moscow losing its influence in the region with Azerbaijan and Armenia distancing themselves from the former ally will leave a dangerous vacuum of power, Giragosian said. 'Azerbaijan is quite correct, as is Armenia, in rejecting any mediating role for Russia.' There are concerns and expectations that 'an angry, vengeful Russia will lash out at all of her neighbours seeking to regain that lost influence'. And although now Russia remains overwhelmed by its all-out war against Ukraine, there is a clear understanding that 'this distraction will not last forever,' especially as Armenia is to hold elections next June. Yerevan will be closely watching Moldova, where the upcoming parliamentary elections have already been targeted by Russia's disinformation campaigns and attempted manipulation of the voters' opinion at an unprecedented scale. In this regard, Armenia is increasing its cooperation with the EU. 'Armenian transactional approach is prudent because it's incremental. It's not looking to NATO membership or anything overly provocative," Giragosian said. "But I do think Armenia's democratic credentials, legitimacy and outlook for stability really strengthen Armenia to defy any kind of submission to Putin's Russia.' At the same time, Yerevan is also normalising its relations with Turkey. 'Turkey seeks to regain its lost regional leadership role', Giragosian says, pointing to the economics of this situation, as Ankara is looking at reopening the border with Armenia to stabilise the east of Turkey. 'We do expect a degree of a win-win situation in terms of a restoration of trade and transport. That's driving much of this diplomatic progress', he said, adding that Russia will still try to restore its influence. 'Russia will, if it's smart, seek to play a managing role in the restoration of trade and transport, especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan," the strategy Armenia has already been pushing back against, according to Giragosian, as 'Russia is so deeply unpopular and distrusted in Armenia." However, the real challenge is to prepare for what is to come, not the changes in Armenia, as Giragosian warned, but those coming from Russia. 'We have to prepare for another scenario. For the day after Putin, a weak Russia with a power struggle in Moscow is an equally serious challenge in the region,' he concluded.
NDTV
25-06-2025
- Business
- NDTV
Military Spending Soars Globally Amid Rise In Armed Conflicts
New war fronts have emerged across the globe, driving a rapid surge in military spending. In 2024, global military expenditure reached $2.718 trillion, up 9.4 per cent from 2023, marking the largest annual increase since 1988. Military spending now accounts for 2.5 per cent of global GDP, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Let's examine the major trends shaping military expenditure over the past decade. The sharp rise in armed conflicts worldwide has prompted significant increases in defence budgets, especially among nations directly involved. Ukraine's military budget soared to $64.7 billion in 2024, equal to 34.5 per cent of its GDP. In contrast, defence spending stood at just 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2021. After Russia's invasion in February 2022, the figure spiked to 25.6%, then 36.5% in 2023, and remained elevated in 2024. Russia's defence spending hit $149 billion in 2024, up 38 per cent from the previous year. As a share of GDP, military expenditure rose from 3.6 per cent in 2021 to 7.1 per cent in 2024, nearly doubling in three years. Amid its ongoing conflict with Hamas and rising tensions with Iran, Israel spent $46.5 billion on defence in 2024, a 65 per cent increase over 2023. Military spending climbed from 4.4% of GDP in 2022 to 8.8 per cent in 2024, with little sign of abating. Lebanon ramped up its military spending by 58 per cent in 2024. Defence expenditure rose from 1.6% of GDP in 2023 to 2.6 per cent in 2024, largely due to clashes with Israel. Amid heightened regional tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Poland increased its defence budget from 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2022 to 4.2 per cent in 2024. Internal Conflicts and Expanding War Zones Drive Global Military Budgets Some of the most dramatic surges have also come from countries grappling with internal turmoil or simmering regional disputes. Here are the examples: Myanmar, embroiled in civil conflict, hiked its defence spending from 3.8 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 6.8 per cent in 2024. In the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict zone: Armenia allocated 5.5 per cent of its GDP to defence in 2024, and Azerbaijan, 5 per cent. Both now rank among just nine countries worldwide spending over 5 per cent of their GDP on their militaries. Algeria, amid enduring tensions with Morocco, spent $21.8 billion or 8 per cent of its GDP on defence in 2024.
