Latest news with #AshithaShivaprasad
Mint
7 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Safe-haven gold firms on elevated trade tensions
Trump announces 50% US tariffs on copper, Brazilian imports US weekly jobless claims fall unexpectedly in latest week (Updates prices for US early-morning session) By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Mukherjee July 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday as rising trade tensions steered market participants toward the safety of bullion, though gains were limited by an uptick in the dollar. Spot gold was up 0.4% to $3,326.48 per ounce by 1307 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $3,335.10. "I think generally the whole metals complex is up because of the knock-on effects of copper being tariffed," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. "However, there is limited upside seen unless a significant geopolitical escalation occurs." U.S. President Donald Trump launched a further tariff assault on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August 1. There is a "rising appeal for gold among emerging economy nations, which see the metal's counterparty-free qualities as attractive in a world burdened by persistent geopolitical risk," Paul Wong, Market Strategist at Sprott Asset Management said in a note. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed only "a couple" of officials said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, with most policymakers remaining worried about the inflationary pressure they expect to come from tariffs. Limiting price upside, the U.S. dollar index drifted 0.2% higher. Gold tends to lose appeal when the U.S. dollar strengthens, as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies. On the data front, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting employers may be holding on to workers despite other indications of a cooling labor market. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $36.82 per ounce. "Breaking above the $35 level increases the likelihood of reaching the $40 target," Wong added. Platinum gained 0.3% to $1,350.95, and palladium climbed 3.5% to $1,144.40. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's output cap to underpin aluminium despite trade wars
By Ashitha Shivaprasad (Reuters) - Weakness in aluminium demand linked to trade tensions will likely weigh on prices this year, but a longstanding cap on Chinese output could limit losses, analysts said. Prices of aluminium rose 7% last year, have fallen 2% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) so far this year after U.S. President Trump imposed tariffs. China accounts for about 60% of global production of aluminium, used in transport, green energy and construction. Its output is constrained by a government cap of 45 million tons per year, a limit introduced in 2017 to curb overcapacity. "We are already running very close to that 45 million mark and globally, we don't see much new capacity. It is a positive factor for prices (this year)," said HSBC analyst Howard Lau. A Reuters poll in April showed an aluminium surplus of 280,000 tons this year, which analysts say is effectively a balanced market given global supplies at around 76 million tons. Any disruptions such as loss of hydropower in China's Yunnan province, where a significant proportion of the country's aluminium smelting capacity is located, could turn that small surplus into a deficit. Morgan Stanley said that in a tightening market with China's capacity cap, it sees prices trading around $2,600, just above current levels, but recession risks could push it below $2,000 if demand declines. That would be its lowest since 2021. "With growth in the U.S. likely to slow thanks to tariffs and China already struggling to revive its economy, demand for aluminium ... is likely to weaken," said ING commodities analyst Ewa Manthey. Trade relations between China and the U.S. have thawed somewhat, with the two agreeing to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. However, uncertainties persist after that, including over the risk of recession. David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas, said aluminium could outperform copper this year. "Copper has plenty of supply growth in the longer-term, there's not enough supply growth for aluminium," he said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's output cap to underpin aluminium despite trade wars
By Ashitha Shivaprasad (Reuters) - Weakness in aluminium demand linked to trade tensions will likely weigh on prices this year, but a longstanding cap on Chinese output could limit losses, analysts said. Prices of aluminium rose 7% last year, have fallen 2% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) so far this year after U.S. President Trump imposed tariffs. China accounts for about 60% of global production of aluminium, used in transport, green energy and construction. Its output is constrained by a government cap of 45 million tons per year, a limit introduced in 2017 to curb overcapacity. "We are already running very close to that 45 million mark and globally, we don't see much new capacity. It is a positive factor for prices (this year)," said HSBC analyst Howard Lau. A Reuters poll in April showed an aluminium surplus of 280,000 tons this year, which analysts say is effectively a balanced market given global supplies at around 76 million tons. Any disruptions such as loss of hydropower in China's Yunnan province, where a significant proportion of the country's aluminium smelting capacity is located, could turn that small surplus into a deficit. Morgan Stanley said that in a tightening market with China's capacity cap, it sees prices trading around $2,600, just above current levels, but recession risks could push it below $2,000 if demand declines. That would be its lowest since 2021. "With growth in the U.S. likely to slow thanks to tariffs and China already struggling to revive its economy, demand for aluminium ... is likely to weaken," said ING commodities analyst Ewa Manthey. Trade relations between China and the U.S. have thawed somewhat, with the two agreeing to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. However, uncertainties persist after that, including over the risk of recession. David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas, said aluminium could outperform copper this year. "Copper has plenty of supply growth in the longer-term, there's not enough supply growth for aluminium," he said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold's record run gains further traction; market conquers $3,500/oz
By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anjana Anil (Reuters) -Gold's remarkable run higher is reaching new heights, with the market touching $3,500 per ounce as confidence in the U.S. economy further erodes after President Donald Trump's renewed attack on the Federal Reserve chair. Spot gold was trading around $3,428 per ounce by 1417 GMT, after hitting a record $3,500.05 earlier in the session. Trump said on Monday the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately, repeating his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell as being slow to act and calling him a "major loser". That was followed by a furious flight from U.S. assets which undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries. [USD/] [MKTS/GLOB] "Gold is recalibrating to reflect what can only be described as epic changes in the global financial system. And those changes are a widespread and fundamental shift in confidence in the world's reserve currency and its bond markets," said independent analyst Ross Norman. Bullion, renowned as a hedge against uncertainties and a highly liquid asset, has surged more than $800 since the start of the year. It surpassed $3,300 last Wednesday, and its strong momentum pushed it up by nearly $200 in just a few days. CENTRAL BANK DEMAND Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said central bank demand "is very likely chasing gold's move higher, because Trump 2.0's chaos only hardens gold's appeal as a geopolitical asset". In the final quarter of 2024, when Trump won the U.S. election, central bank purchases accelerated 54% year-on-year to 333 tons, according to an estimate from the World Gold Council. Data showed that China's central bank added gold to its reserves in March for the fifth straight month. China is considering setting up overseas warehouses to aid international settlement of specific products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, its central bank said. CORRECTION - LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700. It added that if central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, it estimates gold could reach $3,810 by end-2025. ANZ last week also raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600. Asked about a pause in the rally, analysts and experts said any correction is likely to be short-lived, and greater gains are most likely on the horizon if instability persists. "It is hard just now to see a scenario where gold could correct sharply lower as a physical floor of Johnny-come-lately buyers would support or cushion the decline," said Norman. Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said a major road block for gold "would be a less confrontative President Trump, either on the side of trade or on the side of monetary policy - both of which seem rather unlikely at the moment". Spot gold has hit 28 record highs so far in 2025, of which 16 are above the $3,000/oz milestone. Prices are up 31% so far this year, after ending 2024 with a 27% annual rise. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold's record run gains further traction; market conquers $3,500/oz
By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anjana Anil (Reuters) -Gold's remarkable run higher is reaching new heights, with the market touching $3,500 per ounce as confidence in the U.S. economy further erodes after President Donald Trump's renewed attack on the Federal Reserve chair. Spot gold was trading around $3,428 per ounce by 1417 GMT, after hitting a record $3,500.05 earlier in the session. Trump said on Monday the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately, repeating his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell as being slow to act and calling him a "major loser". That was followed by a furious flight from U.S. assets which undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries. [USD/] [MKTS/GLOB] "Gold is recalibrating to reflect what can only be described as epic changes in the global financial system. And those changes are a widespread and fundamental shift in confidence in the world's reserve currency and its bond markets," said independent analyst Ross Norman. Bullion, renowned as a hedge against uncertainties and a highly liquid asset, has surged more than $800 since the start of the year. It surpassed $3,300 last Wednesday, and its strong momentum pushed it up by nearly $200 in just a few days. CENTRAL BANK DEMAND Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said central bank demand "is very likely chasing gold's move higher, because Trump 2.0's chaos only hardens gold's appeal as a geopolitical asset". In the final quarter of 2024, when Trump won the U.S. election, central bank purchases accelerated 54% year-on-year to 333 tons, according to an estimate from the World Gold Council. Data showed that China's central bank added gold to its reserves in March for the fifth straight month. China is considering setting up overseas warehouses to aid international settlement of specific products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, its central bank said. CORRECTION - LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700. It added that if central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, it estimates gold could reach $3,810 by end-2025. ANZ last week also raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600. Asked about a pause in the rally, analysts and experts said any correction is likely to be short-lived, and greater gains are most likely on the horizon if instability persists. "It is hard just now to see a scenario where gold could correct sharply lower as a physical floor of Johnny-come-lately buyers would support or cushion the decline," said Norman. Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said a major road block for gold "would be a less confrontative President Trump, either on the side of trade or on the side of monetary policy - both of which seem rather unlikely at the moment". Spot gold has hit 28 record highs so far in 2025, of which 16 are above the $3,000/oz milestone. Prices are up 31% so far this year, after ending 2024 with a 27% annual rise. Sign in to access your portfolio
