Latest news with #AsiaPlusSecurities
Bangkok Post
6 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Brokerage sees Thai equities recovering
Thai equities are expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by expansionary fiscal measures, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and key earnings drivers, according to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS). According to Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, ASPS's executive vice-president, the government's forthcoming fiscal stimulus -- likely to follow the approval of the 2026 annual budget -- combined with anticipated policy rate cuts, could improve market sentiment. ASPS estimates that each 25-basis-point rate cut could lift the SET Index by around 70 points. "The timing is now appropriate for a rate cut. Given the current economic conditions, we expect 1-2 policy rate reductions this year, each of which could act as a catalyst for the equity market," Mr Therdsak noted. ASPS also sees additional upside from specific corporate catalysts. These include the anticipated mid-August relisting of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) and a major strategic transaction by Siam Cement Group (SCC). Both are expected to help push the SET's earnings per share (EPS) above 90 baht in 2025. The broader economic environment also supports policy easing. Bond yields have declined, the baht has strengthened, and traditional growth drivers -- especially exports -- have weakened. ASPS also cautioned that the risk of higher US import tariffs on Thai goods could further dampen export momentum in the latter half of 2025. Key external risks to monitor include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East -- currently subdued -- and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which has de-escalated into a "social media war". Domestically, political uncertainty is unlikely to obstruct passage of the 2026 budget, and markets appear to have already priced in much of the concern over potential US trade retaliation. However, final clarity on US tariff rates for each country remains crucial. If Thailand ends up with a higher tariff burden than regional peers, it could slip into a technical recession, potentially triggering more aggressive fiscal and monetary responses. Despite these concerns, ASPS believes export-related earnings risks are manageable. In the worst-case scenario, US tariffs would reduce total revenue for four key export sectors -- agriculture, food, petrochemicals and electronics -- by 3.1% and profits by only 1.1%. According to ASPS, fears that the SET Index could plunge to a new low near 1,056 points have likely passed. Nonetheless, elevated tariffs could deter foreign direct investment. "If Thailand remains at a 36% tariff rate while Vietnam and Indonesia are at 20% and 19%, respectively, we may lose competitiveness in attracting new investment. That said, there's still a sizeable pool of Board of Investment-approved projects in the pipeline, which should sustain investment activity for some time," Mr Therdsak added. ASPS expects listed companies to post flat earnings on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2025, with total profits of around 262 billion baht. For the full year, earnings are projected at 1.06 trillion baht, or 86 baht per share, representing 17% year-on-year growth. Sectors likely to show sustained third-quarter momentum include electronics, healthcare, property and transportation. Investor sentiment is also improving. Thai listed companies have repurchased shares worth 24 billion baht year-to-date, matching the total recorded for the whole of 2024, signalling renewed corporate confidence. Meanwhile, margin call pressures have eased, with margin loan balances declining to pre-Covid levels, suggesting reduced risk of forced selling. Thailand's stock market has staged a strong rebound, delivering the best returns globally over the past month. This momentum increases the likelihood that MSCI and FTSE will raise Thailand's weighting in their August reviews -- potentially attracting further foreign inflows. ASPS maintains a conservative year-end SET Index target of 1,376 points, based on an EPS estimate of 86 baht and a policy rate of 1.75%. With the index currently trading in the 1,140–1,170 range, there is significant upside potential. The firm recommends a diversified investment strategy, with a focus on high-dividend-yield stocks across multiple sectors.
Bangkok Post
6 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
ASPS sees Thai equities recovering
Thai equities are expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by expansionary fiscal measures, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and key earnings drivers, according to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS). According to Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, ASPS's executive vice-president, the government's forthcoming fiscal stimulus -- likely to follow the approval of the 2026 annual budget -- combined with anticipated policy rate cuts, could improve market sentiment. ASPS estimates that each 25-basis-point rate cut could lift the SET Index by around 70 points. "The timing is now appropriate for a rate cut. Given the current economic conditions, we expect 1-2 policy rate reductions this year, each of which could act as a catalyst for the equity market," Mr Therdsak noted. ASPS also sees additional upside from specific corporate catalysts. These include the anticipated mid-August relisting of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) and a major strategic transaction by Siam Cement Group (SCC). Both are expected to help push the SET's earnings per share (EPS) above 90 baht in 2025. The broader economic environment also supports policy easing. Bond yields have declined, the baht has strengthened, and traditional growth drivers -- especially exports -- have weakened. ASPS also cautioned that the risk of higher US import tariffs on Thai goods could further dampen export momentum in the latter half of 2025. Key external risks to monitor include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East -- currently subdued -- and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which has de-escalated into a "social media war". Domestically, political uncertainty is unlikely to obstruct passage of the 2026 budget, and markets appear to have already priced in much of the concern over potential US trade retaliation. However, final clarity on US tariff rates for each country remains crucial. If Thailand ends up with a higher tariff burden than regional peers, it could slip into a technical recession, potentially triggering more aggressive fiscal and monetary responses. Despite these concerns, ASPS believes export-related earnings risks are manageable. In the worst-case scenario, US tariffs would reduce total revenue for four key export sectors -- agriculture, food, petrochemicals and electronics -- by 3.1% and profits by only 1.1%. According to ASPS, fears that the SET Index could plunge to a new low near 1,056 points have likely passed. Nonetheless, elevated tariffs could deter foreign direct investment. "If Thailand remains at a 36% tariff rate while Vietnam and Indonesia are at 20% and 19%, respectively, we may lose competitiveness in attracting new investment. That said, there's still a sizeable pool of Board of Investment-approved projects in the pipeline, which should sustain investment activity for some time," Mr Therdsak added. ASPS expects listed companies to post flat earnings on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2025, with total profits of around 262 billion baht. For the full year, earnings are projected at 1.06 trillion baht, or 86 baht per share, representing 17% year-on-year growth. Sectors likely to show sustained third-quarter momentum include electronics, healthcare, property and transportation. Investor sentiment is also improving. Thai listed companies have repurchased shares worth 24 billion baht year-to-date, matching the total recorded for the whole of 2024, signalling renewed corporate confidence. Meanwhile, margin call pressures have eased, with margin loan balances declining to pre-Covid levels, suggesting reduced risk of forced selling. Thailand's stock market has staged a strong rebound, delivering the best returns globally over the past month. This momentum increases the likelihood that MSCI and FTSE will raise Thailand's weighting in their August reviews -- potentially attracting further foreign inflows. ASPS maintains a conservative year-end SET Index target of 1,376 points, based on an EPS estimate of 86 baht and a policy rate of 1.75%. With the index currently trading in the 1,140–1,170 range, there is significant upside potential. The firm recommends a diversified investment strategy, with a focus on high-dividend-yield stocks across multiple sectors.
Business Times
18-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thai PM sparks turmoil after criticising military in leaked audio
[BANGKOK] Thailand's prime minister blamed her own military for escalating a border dispute with Cambodia, according to a leaked audio recording, sparking fresh political turmoil in the country as opposition groups called on her to resign. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra slammed former Cambodian leader Hun Sen on Wednesday (Jun 18) for leaking a recording of the June 15 call. The 17-minute private conversation, which has since been posted in full on Hun Sen's Facebook page, should not have been recorded or shared, she said. The Thai leader is already facing the threat of her coalition's largest partner quitting the cabinet over a ministerial post, concerns that sent the benchmark stock index to a two-month low on Wednesday. Paetongtarn said her 'sympathetic remarks and softer tone' during the phone call with Hun Sen were part of a strategy to ease the border tension. 'It was just a negotiation technique. I was conducting myself with the purpose of maintaining peace and our sovereignty,' Paetongtarn said. 'It's clear now that his true desire is to win popularity in his country without caring about the impact on bilateral relations.' The spectre of a fresh spell of political turmoil may unnerve foreign investors, who have dumped a net US$2.3 billion of Thai stocks this year. The nation's benchmark stock index has slumped 22 per cent this year – among the worst performers globally – largely on concerns the US threat of a 36 per cent tariff will worsen the outlook for growth and hurt company earnings. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up The brewing crisis could lead to a dissolution of parliament, which would delay the new budget bill and disrupt fiscal policy, analysts at Asia Plus Securities, including Paradorn Tiaranapramote and Pawat Pattrapong, said in a note. Hun Sen, father of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, confirmed on Facebook that he recorded the call and distributed it to about 80 Cambodian officials. He appeared angered by Paetongtarn's earlier criticism of Cambodia's 'unprofessional communications' after a nine-minute clip initially leaked online. Tensions between the two neighbours have escalated since a May border clash in the disputed Chong Bok area left a Cambodian soldier dead. Both sides have since reinforced troops and restricted border crossings, while Phnom Penh imposed trade curbs. Diplomatic efforts to ease tensions have so far failed. The fallout is particularly striking given the long-standing ties between the Shinawatra family and Hun Sen, who has referred to Paetongtarn's father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as a 'brother.' The leak could undermine the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai Party's push for greater cabinet control over its conservative coalition partner, Bhumjaithai Party. In the leaked clip, Paetongtarn, speaking through an interpreter, told Hun Sen her government was facing public criticism over the border issue and proposed a joint statement to resume normal crossings. Referring to him as 'uncle,' she urged him to ignore 'the opposite side,' a reference to the Thai military, and said its statements were unhelpful. She offered to 'take care of whatever' he needed. The main opposition People's Party said Paetongtarn had 'completely lost' people's confidence by painting the Thai army as the common enemy of Cambodian and Thai governments. 'I call on the prime minister to take responsibility by dissolving the parliament,' opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said in a statement. 'This is to return the power to the people and prevent some groups from using this mistake to create situations that will hurt our democratic system.' Former lawmaker Piyabutr Saengkanokkul warned the controversy could fuel talk of a military coup, a recurring feature of Thai politics. 'We urge and plead with the armed forces to carry on their duty in protecting the Thai borders, and not use this as a pretext for seizing power,' said senator Nantana Nantavaropas. BLOOMBERG
