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Yomiuri Shimbun
27-06-2025
- Business
- Yomiuri Shimbun
There Is a High Price to Pay for Mistreating Allies
The 'Trump shocks' have continued to come one after another. There is also the possibility that a seismic event will ripple out from an epicenter in Beijing. How will the world change after that, and how should we respond? In Ukraine, the future of the war is uncertain. U.S. President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin in February, and they agreed to begin negotiations on a ceasefire in Ukraine. On the same day, the United States made it clear at an international conference on support for Ukraine that Europe should do more on its own to ensure the region's security and that it should provide 'security guarantees' to Ukraine. The U.S. and Russia held high-level talks in Saudi Arabia to prepare for a possible in-person summit between Trump and Putin — though representatives from Ukraine were not the Trump administration's moves to reconcile with Russia, ceasefire negotiations have not gone well so far. In the other direction, Ukraine and the United States have signed an agreement on natural resources development, which is focused on jointly exploring mineral and energy resources. For its part, Germany has decided to increase its defense spending. European leaders aim to agree on a defense spending goal of 5% of their gross domestic product at a summit meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that will take place later in June. Trump, who has been pressing Washington's allies to shoulder a greater share of the defense burden, is probably thinking, 'I have a deal.' However, there will be a steep price to pay. Alliances cannot survive and be stable long-term without mutual trust among member countries. The Trump administration has greatly undermined this trust. It appears that NATO's European member countries have already concluded that they should improve their strategic autonomy in the fields of diplomacy and security. The situation may not be as serious yet in the Indo-Pacific. In their summit in February, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump reaffirmed that the Japan-U.S. alliance 'remains the cornerstone of peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.' They stressed 'the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait' and reiterated their strong opposition to Beijing's unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed land and threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea. In May, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the Indo-Pacific 'our priority theater' when touching on the Trump administration's strategy for the region in his speech during the Asia Security Summit in Singapore. He warned that 'any attempt' by China to reunify with Taiwan through force 'would result in devastating consequences.' He emphasized that the United States would strengthen alliances and multilateral partnerships 'to deter Chinese aggression.' Peace through strength? Though Trump has advocated 'peace through strength,' what he likely wants is 'We do it without fighting.' It is not clear how Trump would respond to 'Chinese aggression' or attempts by China to change the status quo in the South China Sea by force. Trump has also caused a major shock to the economy. His administration imposed a 10% baseline tariff on goods imported from all countries and regions, which was quickly followed by the announcement of additional tariffs, varying by country. The administration has also raised tariffs on specific items such as automobiles, steel and aluminum. Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' appear to be aimed at reviving domestic manufacturing, rectifying trade imbalances and securing fiscal resources to pay for tax cuts, among other goals. Even if the manufacturing industry does come back, it will take time. The United States will not be able to rid itself of trade deficits until it remedies its overconsumption. Tax cuts will likely further balloon the government's debt. What is more, these reciprocal tariffs have targeted allies, like Japan, and friendly nations. This is like using one hand to shake hands with someone while slapping them with the other hand. Nevertheless, it is still possible to know, to a certain extent, what is going on in the Trump administration. By contrast, it is unclear what is happening in China. However, there is a high possibility that significant changes are occurring in the highest echelon of the Chinese Communist Party. Chinese President Xi Jinping issued an important directive this spring that stressed the need for 'scientific, democratic and law-based decision-making' in formulating China's 15th Five-year Plan (2026-2030) for economic and social development. Xi's wording matches that of Hu Jintao, former president and general secretary of the Communist Party, in his report about the party's activities during its 2012 National Congress. In China's armed forces, many of the pro-Xi generals have been purged. It seems clear that there have been deep disagreements in the Communist Party over how to tackle such issues as the slump in the economy, growing unemployment and isolation in the international community owing to its overproduction, excessive competition and dumping of products on foreign markets. Beijing's response to Trump's reciprocal tariffs must also have been debated. The CCP may change its basic policy. A Sino-U.S. grand bargain may be in the offing. Fraying of the Pax Americana One way to frame the situation would be as follows: Since the end of the Cold War, the world has been kept stable by two maritime alliances — the U.S.-led NATO and the 'hubs and spokes' alliance system in the Asia-Pacific. Globalization evolved under the Pax Americana with the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency. At the heart of globalization has been the principle of the free movement of capital and goods across borders. The Pax Americana is fraying, however, due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, China's attempts to change the status quo and Trump's disregard for U.S. allies. The American people are divided over how far they should go to maintain the Pax Americana. The same can be said about the trade system, which has been roiled by Trump's reciprocal tariffs — a violation of World Trade Organization agreements. Considering that global imbalances have basically stemmed from China's overinvestment and overproduction and the United States' overconsumption, the global currency regime and financial system may face further turmoil, depending on what gets passed in a bill centered on large-scale tax cuts that is currently being debated in the U.S. Congress. So, what should be done? Japan is not a superpower; it accounted for only 3.7% of the global economy in 2024. Nevertheless, it does occupy a strategic position both geopolitically and geoeconomically. And one of Japan's strengths is that it is trusted internationally at a time when the United States and China are both busy destroying their credibility. The important thing for Japan is to increase its strategic autonomy and indispensability, while contributing to global and regional peace, stability and prosperity, with international trust as the key guiding principle. In connection with this, let me touch on three points. First, Japan should help itself before it can expect help from other countries. Japan should reinforce its defenses as needed, and not fixate on the government's target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. While Japan's own security and the Japan-U.S. alliance, which is a cornerstone of the security of the Indo-Pacific region, should be maintained as a touchstone, Japan should seek to strengthen partnerships with like-minded countries and its quasi-allies — Australia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom. Second, since Russia invaded Ukraine, the terms national security and economic security have become virtually synonymous. The concept of 'manufacturing' has to be reinvented. What is needed now is 'new manufacturing,' which promotes AI- and data-driven innovation that is integrated with services, as the foundation of national strength. Emerging cutting-edge technologies and industries such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology and advanced semiconductors are crucial, but new manufacturing in steel, shipbuilding and machinery is of equal strategic importance. Third, Japan should protect and foster rules-based, free and open markets. Free trade is the basis of prosperity for Japan and the world. Japan should work with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union, among other regional groupings, to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Creating a 'global common market' should be the future goal. Takashi Shiraishi Takashi Shiraishi is a scholar of Asian studies and distinguished university professor at the Prefectural University of Kumamoto, where he served as chancellor until the end of March 2024. Prior to that, he was president of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies from 2011 to 2017, and president of the Institute of Developing Economies, part of the Japan External Trade Organization, from 2007 to original article in Japanese appeared in the June 22 issue of The Yomiuri Shimbun.
Yomiuri Shimbun
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Japan to Export Marine Products to China: Why Has Beijing Not Yet Fully Lifted The Import Ban?
China has finally acknowledged the safety of Japanese marine products and is likely to lift its import ban, but it must be said that the scale is limited and inadequate. If China is serious about improving relations with Japan, shouldn't it drop its scientifically groundless claims and make the decision to lift the import ban entirely? According to the Japan-China agreement, businesses in Japan must re-register with the Chinese authorities before resuming exports of Japanese marine products. In addition, the first shipment must be accompanied by a certificate of inspection for radioactive materials. Therefore, the actual resumption of exports is expected to be several months away. In 2023, when treated water from Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.'s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant began to be discharged into the ocean, China banned imports of all Japanese marine products. Last year, the Japanese and Chinese governments agreed that China would conduct a seawater monitoring survey under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The results of the survey subsequently revealed no problems with the seawater. The safety of the treated water has been investigated and confirmed by the IAEA many times. Despite this, China has continued to criticize the treated water, calling it 'nuclear contaminated water.' The fact that such critical voices did not spread internationally probably contributed to the Chinese government's decision this time around. Nevertheless, China has allowed only 37 prefectures — excluding 10, such as Fukushima and Ibaraki — to resume exports. There is no scientific basis for the move, and it is hard to understand. Pending issues between Japan and China are not limited to marine products. Last month, a helicopter belonging to a China Coast Guard vessel violated Japanese airspace around the Senkaku Islands in an attempt to interfere with the flight of a Japanese civilian aircraft. In response to the Japanese government's protest, China reportedly claimed that the civilian aircraft had violated Chinese airspace. China also removed a buoy that it had installed without permission inside Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) south of Yonaguni Island. However, China asserts that both the installation and removal of the buoy were activities conducted in waters under its jurisdiction. China's claims, which are like saying the Senkakus and Japan's waters belong to itself, are unacceptable. Beijing's likely aim is to strengthen its effective control over them through establishing faits accompli. The Japanese government must not tolerate China's claims. Meanwhile, at the Asia Security Summit held in Singapore, there was many voices from countries including those from Southeast Asia expressing caution over China's hegemonic activities in the South China Sea. With the rise of China, it is becoming difficult for the United States alone to protect the security of Asia. Japan needs to make every possible effort to build a multilateral cooperative framework to safeguard regional peace and stability. (From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 3, 2025)
Japan Today
31-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
Japan, U.S. to boost cybersecurity cooperation amid rising threats
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Japan's Defence Minister Gen Nakatani pose for a photograph at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore on Saturday. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth agreed Saturday to boost cybersecurity cooperation, following Japan's enactment of a law allowing the government to monitor online communications amid rising cyber threats. After their talks in Singapore, meanwhile, Nakatani did not clarify whether Hegseth had requested Japan pay more for defense during their meeting. U.S. President Donald Trump views the long-standing security treaty with Japan as unfair and one-sided. Nakatani and Hegseth met on the sidelines of the annual Asia Security Summit, better known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, being held for three days from Friday. It was their first in-person meeting since March in Tokyo. In May, Japan enacted a law introducing "active cyberdefense" measures aimed at preempting cyberattacks, enabling police and the Self-Defense Forces to counter threats by accessing and neutralizing the source servers. Nakatani told reporters that he and Hegseth also affirmed their governments will closely collaborate to align their top strategic priorities, as the Pentagon plans to release the latest version of its policy document, the National Defense Strategy. The Trump administration has voiced eagerness to compile a final draft of the document by the end of August. Japan issued its National Defense Strategy in 2022, pledging to acquire "counterstrike capabilities" to directly target enemy territory in an emergency, as China continues to build up its forces and North Korea seeks to expand its nuclear and missile arsenal. According to government sources, Japan is eyeing "two-plus-two" security talks with the United States in Washington this summer, which would bring together their foreign and defense ministers for the first time under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and during Trump's second term. Afterward, Nakatani and Hegseth attended a quadrilateral gathering with their Australian and Philippine counterparts, Richard Marles and Gilberto Teodoro. In a joint statement released after the meeting, they expressed "continued serious concern about China's destabilizing actions" in the East and South China seas. The four countries confirmed that they will explore planning joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities in the two seas, and coinvest in cybersecurity of the Philippines, the statement said. Separately, Nakatani, Hegseth and Marles held a trilateral gathering. Earlier on Saturday, Nakatani delivered a speech at the security summit, calling for global efforts to restore a "rules-based international order," with Japan "at its center." He also aired concerns over a "rapid military buildup, including nuclear forces, without transparency" and an "increase in provocative military activities," in an apparent reference to Chinese forces. © KYODO
Yomiuri Shimbun
31-05-2025
- Politics
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Defense Minister Nakatani Calls for Greater Cooperation in Shangri-La Dialogue Address; Rules-Based Order Being ‘Hollowed out'
Yomiuri Shimbun file photo Defense Minister Gen Nakatani SINGAPORE — Defense Minister Gen Nakatani gave an address at the Asia Security Summit in Singapore on Saturday in which he emphasized the importance of defense cooperation among Indo-Pacific countries and laid out a new cooperative framework. At the summit, which is also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, Nakatani also spoke about promoting cooperation between members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the United States, Australia and India, with China in mind. 'The rules-based international order is rapidly being hollowed out,' Nakatani said. Nakatani's address took place in the context of such factors as Russia's aggression against Ukraine and China's move to ignore a 2016 decision by the Arbitral Tribunal and strengthen its effective control of the South China Sea. AP Defense Minister Gen Nakatani delivers a speech during the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore on Saturday. The defense minister expressed concern that 'rapid military buildups, including of nuclear weapons, and provocative military actions are on the rise' and said that such moves are 'large obstacles in maintaining a trustful relationship in security.' On the other hand, Nakatani welcomed ASEAN's expanded role in security, as well as the strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance and cooperation between Japan, the United States, Australia and the Philippines, calling such moves 'encouraging.' The cooperative framework that Nakatani proposed, which calls on the countries with common values and interests to expand their cooperation, is dubbed OCEAN (One Cooperative Effort Among Nations). He said that it is important for 'the defense authorities of those countries to create synergy by strengthening their cooperation.' In accordance with that principle, Nakatani said Japan will deepen its collaboration with ASEAN member countries through such assistance as improving their capabilities and transferring defense equipment to them. Japan, he said, would also deepen defense cooperation within the Japan-U.S.- South Korea and Japan-U.S.-Philippine trilateral groups. 'We should work to restore the rules-based international order,' Nakatani said. 'Japan will stay at the center of moves aimed at that.'
The Mainichi
31-05-2025
- Politics
- The Mainichi
Japan, US vow to spur cybersecurity cooperation amid rising threats
SINGAPORE (Kyodo) -- Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth agreed Saturday to boost cybersecurity cooperation, following Japan's enactment of a law allowing the government to monitor online communications amid rising cyber threats. After their talks in Singapore, meanwhile, Nakatani did not clarify whether Hegseth had requested Japan pay more for defense during their meeting. U.S. President Donald Trump views the long-standing security treaty with Japan as unfair and one-sided. Nakatani and Hegseth met on the sidelines of the annual Asia Security Summit, better known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, being held for three days from Friday. It was their first in-person meeting since March in Tokyo. In May, Japan enacted a law introducing "active cyberdefense" measures aimed at preempting cyberattacks, enabling police and the Self-Defense Forces to counter threats by accessing and neutralizing the source servers. Nakatani told reporters that he and Hegseth also affirmed their governments will closely collaborate to align their top strategic priorities, as the Pentagon plans to release the latest version of its policy document, the National Defense Strategy. The Trump administration has expressed eagerness to compile a final draft of the document by the end of August. Japan issued its National Defense Strategy in 2022, pledging to acquire "counterstrike capabilities" to directly target enemy territory in an emergency, as China continues to build up its forces and North Korea seeks to expand its nuclear and missile arsenal. According to government sources, Japan eyes "two-plus-two" security talks with the United States, involving their foreign and defense ministers in Washington this summer -- the first under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and during Trump's second term in office. Earlier on Saturday, Nakatani delivered a speech at the security summit, calling for global efforts to restore a "rules-based international order," with Japan "at its center." He also aired concerns over a "rapid military buildup, including nuclear forces, without transparency" and an "increase in provocative military activities," in an apparent reference to Chinese forces.
