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Emerging Market Currencies Rise as Focus Shifts to Negotiations
Emerging Market Currencies Rise as Focus Shifts to Negotiations

Bloomberg

time08-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Emerging Market Currencies Rise as Focus Shifts to Negotiations

Emerging market currencies recovered some of their losses after US President Donald Trump signaled he is open to negotiations shortly after setting tariff rates for more than a dozen countries. The South Korean won led a pullback in Asian currencies, rising around 0.6% to pare part of its overnight decline while the Thai baht erased losses from early morning trading. These moves were part of a tentative rebound across emerging markets, with the South African rand also edging higher after heavy losses Monday.

Asian Currencies Consolidate Amid Mixed Signals
Asian Currencies Consolidate Amid Mixed Signals

Wall Street Journal

time04-07-2025

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

Asian Currencies Consolidate Amid Mixed Signals

0046 GMT — Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in the morning session amid mixed signals. On the one hand, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released overnight was much stronger than consensus, NAB's Tapas Strickland says in a commentary. On the other hand, however, pricing for Fed rate cuts was trimmed, with now 51.4bps worth of cuts for 2025 versus 65.0bps on Wednesday, the head of Market Economics says. 'As for meeting timing, a September cut is priced at 18.1bps (or 72% priced) from 29.1bps on Wednesday,' Strickland adds. USD/KRW is up 0.2% at 1,366.50, and AUD/USD is 0.1% higher to 0.6573, LSEG data show. (

Rupee to ride Asia FX rally on US-China trade cheer
Rupee to ride Asia FX rally on US-China trade cheer

Reuters

time30-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

Rupee to ride Asia FX rally on US-China trade cheer

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to be well supported at open on Monday, aided by the strength in Asian currencies following positive trade-related developments between the U.S. and China. The one-month non-deliverable forward suggests the rupee , which rallied 1.3% last week to 85.4750 per U.S. dollar, will open slightly firmer. Last week's move marked the rupee's best weekly performance in over two years, fuelled by the plunge in oil prices and continued weakness in the dollar. The rupee's bias remains skewed to upside after last week's clean break below 85.80, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. There is likely to be "good supply on upticks" on the dollar/rupee pair, he said, pegging support at 85.30 and then at 85. The offshore Chinese yuan inched up at 7.16 to the dollar and it is not too far away from its year-to-date high. The South Korean won added 0.5%, the top performer among major Asian currencies. Optimism over the U.S. trade deals and mounting expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts boosted Asian currencies. The White House said on Thursday it had signed an agreement with China to accelerate rare earth approvals. Hours later, Beijing said both sides had agreed on the terms of the deal reached in London earlier this month, developments investors took to signal progress. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data on Friday added to the case for the Fed rate cuts this year, particularly against the backdrop of progress on the trade front. U.S. real consumer spending was softer than expected, leading our economists to revise down their real GDP growth tracking to 2.0% from 2.1%, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Following the data, traders increased bets that the Fed will cut short-term borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points in 2025, with the first move likely in September. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.55; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.5 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.18 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $67.6 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.28% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,243.5 million worth of Indian shares on June 26 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $71.7 million worth of Indian bonds on June 26

Asia FX bulls retreat after Middle East conflict dents risk appetite
Asia FX bulls retreat after Middle East conflict dents risk appetite

Reuters

time26-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

Asia FX bulls retreat after Middle East conflict dents risk appetite

June 26 (Reuters) - Investors trimmed long positions in most Asian currencies as the conflict between Israel and Iran pushed oil prices higher and drove safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. Bullish bets on the South Korean won , the Taiwan dollar , the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit eased slightly from a fortnight ago, according to the poll of 11 respondents. Asian currencies logged losses last week as a raging conflict between Iran and Israel, which settled into a delicate truce earlier this week, made investors risk averse and sent them seeking refuge in the dollar. Rising oil prices added to the pressure as most emerging Asian economies, except Malaysia, import the bulk of their oil requirement and an increase in prices weighs on current account deficits. Market volatility in recent weeks has been driven by two conflicting factors - geopolitical risks and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut, said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, adding that in the Asian context, key concerns also include oil prices and the growth outlook. Investors turned bearish on the Philippine peso for the first time since early-March. The peso has weakened about 1.4% this month as the country is one of the most exposed to oil price shocks among regional peers. Moreover, the Philippine central bank delivered a widely expected second straight policy rate cut last week and left the door open for at least one more reduction this year to support growth. Bearish bets on the Indian rupee also firmed. Investors had turned short on the currency for the first time in two months a fortnight ago after the country's central bank delivered a larger than expected 50-basis-point cut. Parisha Saimbi, an FX strategist at BNP Paribas, said that the upcoming dividend payment season in India could further weigh on the rupee. Bullish bets on the Thai baht were reduced significantly as political risks clouded the prospects of Southeast Asia's second largest economy. The Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has come under intense public pressure over her handling of an escalating border row with neighbouring Cambodia, which led to a key ally walking out of the coalition last week, vowing to seek a no confidence vote. Most of the poll responses were received before the Bank of Thailand left its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday. The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars. The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

Asian Currencies Consolidate; Concerns Over Iran's Nuclear Sites May Weigh
Asian Currencies Consolidate; Concerns Over Iran's Nuclear Sites May Weigh

Wall Street Journal

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

Asian Currencies Consolidate; Concerns Over Iran's Nuclear Sites May Weigh

0047 GMT — Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in the morning session, but may be weighed by concerns that Iran's nuclear sites haven't been damaged that much by the U.S. attacks. A preliminary U.S. intelligence report found that the U.S. military's strikes last week on three Iranian nuclear facilities only set back Tehran's nuclear ambitions by a few months, according to people familiar with the intelligence. USD's weakness appears to have been 'undone' following this news, says Ray Attrill, head of FX Research at NAB, in a commentary. AUD/USD is little changed at 0.6493 and USD/KRW is steady at 1,358.89, according to FactSet data. (

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