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Sinar Daily
15-06-2025
- Climate
- Sinar Daily
UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C
The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024. 02 Jun 2025 06:01pm A worker cleans the lines of a cooling tower at an ice factory on a hot summer day in Karachi on May 29, 2025. (Photo by Asif HASSAN / AFP) GENEVA - The United Nations warned there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN's weather and climate agency. A man drinks water in Ronda, southern Spain as the country faces the first heatwave of the season, on May 28, 2025. (Photo by JORGE GUERRERO / AFP) "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 per cent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade. This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2C warming now on the radar Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. 'Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon. - AFP More Like This
Sinar Daily
07-06-2025
- Science
- Sinar Daily
Half the world faced an extra month of extreme heat due to climate change
The team identified 67 extreme heat events during the year and found the fingerprint of climate change on all of them. 07 Jun 2025 08:01pm A worker cleans the lines of a cooling tower at an ice factory on a hot summer day in Karachi on May 29, 2025. (Photo by Asif HASSAN / AFP) WASHINGTON - Half the global population endured an additional month of extreme heat over the past year because of manmade climate change, a new study found recently. The findings highlight how the continued burning of fossil fuels is harming health and well-being on every continent, with the effects especially under-recognised in developing countries, the authors said. A man drinks water in Ronda, southern Spain as the country faces the first heatwave of the season, on May 28, 2025. (Photo by JORGE GUERRERO / AFP) "With every barrel of oil burned, every tonne of carbon dioxide released, and every fraction of a degree of warming, heat waves will affect more people," said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the report. The analysis -- conducted by scientists at World Weather Attribution, Climate Central, and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre -- was released ahead of global Heat Action Day on June 2, which this year spotlights the dangers of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. To assess the influence of global warming, researchers analysed the period from May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025. They defined "extreme heat days" as those hotter than 90 per cent of temperatures recorded at a given location between 1991 and 2020. Using a peer-reviewed modeling approach, they then compared the number of such days to a simulated world without human-caused warming. The results were stark: roughly four billion people -- 49 per cent of the global population -- experienced at least 30 more days of extreme heat than they would have otherwise. The team identified 67 extreme heat events during the year and found the fingerprint of climate change on all of them. The Caribbean island of Aruba was the worst affected, recording 187 extreme heat days -- 45 more than expected in a world without climate change. The study follows a year of unprecedented global temperatures. 2024 was the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023, while January 2025 marked the hottest January ever. On a five-year average, global temperatures are now 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels -- and in 2024 alone, they exceeded 1.5C, the symbolic ceiling set by the Paris climate accord. The report also highlights a critical lack of data on heat-related health impacts in lower-income regions. While Europe recorded more than 61,000 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, comparable figures are sparse elsewhere, with many heat-related fatalities misattributed to underlying conditions such as heart or lung disease. The authors emphasised the need for early warning systems, public education, and heat action plans tailored to cities. Better building design -- including shading and ventilation -- and behavioral adjustments like avoiding strenuous activity during peak heat are also essential. Still, adaptation alone will not be enough. The only way to halt the rising severity and frequency of extreme heat, the authors warned, is to rapidly phase out fossil fuels. - AFP More Like This
