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Cedar News
20-07-2025
- Politics
- Cedar News
Ayatollah Naimabadi Found Shot Dead in His Tehran Residence
Tehran – July 20, 2025: In a shocking development that has sent ripples through Iran's political and religious circles, Ayatollah Naimabadi, Tehran's current delegate to the powerful Assembly of Experts, was found shot dead in his private residence late Sunday evening. According to preliminary reports from Iranian state media, the incident took place under unclear circumstances. Security forces have cordoned off the area, and an official investigation is underway to determine whether the shooting was a targeted assassination or a personal incident. Ayatollah Naimabadi was a prominent cleric and a long-serving member of the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for appointing and overseeing the Supreme Leader of Iran. His sudden death raises serious concerns about internal stability within the religious establishment. Authorities have yet to release a formal statement, and no group has claimed responsibility as of this writing. Local sources indicate increased security presence around other high-ranking clerics in Tehran. The country now awaits further information as the investigation unfolds.
France 24
26-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Battered by war, Tehran responds with repression and paranoia
The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not appeared in public since the start of the conflict with Israel on June 12, delivering only recorded video messages to his countrymen and giving the impression of a man sheltering for safety in his bunker. In a new recorded video on Thursday, Khamenei claimed victory over Israel and the United States, his first official statement since the start of the ceasefire on June 24. Until a few days ago, communications with the supreme leader were very complicated. In hiding with his family and protected by the Vali-ye Amr special forces unit of the Revolutionary Guards, Khamenei spoke to his commanders only through a close aide, suspending electronic communications for fear of giving away his location. In the aftermath of Sunday's US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sources told the IranWire website that several Iranian political figures – including former president Hassan Rouhani, former speaker of Iran's parliament Ali Larijani and former head of the judiciary Sadiq Larijani – had tried in vain to contact Khamenei to ask him to open direct negotiations with the United States. Shock theory But the ceasefire does not mean the Iranian supreme leader and his regime are now safe. Since the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7, 2023, any "ceasefires in the region have not held", says Jonathan Piron, a historian specialising in Iran at the Etopia think tank in Namur, Belgium. "Sporadic strikes have been carried out, often by Israel – as in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip – where every truce has failed." Such a scenario could be repeated with Iran, which is now "very weakened" and has "little room for manoeuvre in confronting Israel, which is now dominant in the region", he says. The Israeli military could continue to target strategic Iranian installations. "We are witnessing a form of 'stability within instability', which is likely to last,' Piron says. It remains to be seen how the Iranian regime will choose to react. Under the circumstances, the regime itself will 'tend to stick together to avoid seeing elements of dissent emerge in the population or in reform movements", says Piron. Even if certain political factions "are sometimes in opposition or even hate each other", they "stand together' in the face of the external threats because "their common interest takes precedence over their divisions". He notes that "authoritarian regimes faced with instability" are even less open to compromise and often harden their positions. In a sign of the regime's precarious situation, Khamenei has named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him if he is killed, according to the New York Times, citing three Iranian officials. The supreme leader is the head of state, appointed for life by a clerical body called the Assembly of Experts. Normally, the process of appointing a new supreme leader would take several months, with the Assembly of Experts choosing from their own list of names. But according to officials interviewed by the New York Times, Khamenei 'wants to ensure a quick, orderly transition and to preserve his legacy' and has made the unusual decision to instruct the Assembly of Experts 'to choose his successor swiftly from the three names he has provided'. Ayatollah Khamenei's son Mojtaba, also a cleric, with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, was once considered the favourite. But he is not among the candidates to succeed his father, officials told the New York Times. Mojtaba Khamenei's views echo those of his father on all the important issues, from the repression of opponents of the regime to the adoption of a hard line with foreign enemies. 'Some people put forward a 'shock theory': if Khamenei dies, it could undermine the regime," says Clément Therme, author of the book " Idées reçues sur l'Iran" ("Preconceived Ideas about Iran') to be published in August. Spy hunt Since Israel's surprise attack on Iran, fears of infiltration by Mossad at the highest levels of the security and intelligence apparatus have shaken the Iranian leadership. "The hard core of the regime is entering a phase of acute paranoia," says Piron. The Israeli strikes of the first few days of the offensive, which "decapitated the command of the Revolutionary Guards" and hit strategic nuclear sites, revealed "the deep infiltration of Israeli intelligence services into the heart of Iranian power". The current climate of extreme suspicion could push the regime to withdraw even further from the population. "The leader could begin to make appearances only in very controlled stage-managed events," says Piron, adding that this paranoia could also be "turned against the population, perceived as an internal enemy to be monitored, or even repressed". A large part of the Revolutionary Guards staff has been decimated, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, and those who have stepped in to fill vacant roles have yet to establish their legitimacy. "We still don't really know much about those who have been promoted, even though they seem to have worked with the people who have been eliminated. So we're not dealing with novices," says Piron. "It remains to be seen whether those newly promoted can gain each other's trust – and, above all, gain the trust of the Supreme Guide." Among the new leaders, the few names that have been made public are from the generation that lived through the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) – former 'brothers in arms', which gives them 'common references", Piron observes. "The assassinations by Israel have accelerated the process of generational renewal" within the IRGC, says Therme. "This will perhaps give rise to a new organisation within the system. But we shouldn't think that a young radical will be 'better' than an old radical. In fact, everyone is ideological. The Islamic Republic is an ideocracy." The Guardians' oil windfall Even weakened by war – with a shaky security apparatus, a damaged military, a shattered nuclear infrastructure and facing regional isolation following the strike on a US base in Qatar – the Iranian regime still has the capacity to replace those who have been eliminated and rebuild what has been destroyed. It can survive "as long as it has oil revenues and no one is prepared to send in ground forces to defeat them - even if it is not safe from a Kurdish revolt", says Therme. The Israeli strikes spared Kharg Island, site of the oil terminal that handles over 90 percent of Iranian crude oil exports. In a remarkable Truth Social post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump seemed to signal a complete reversal of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, saying that, 'China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.' A senior White House official later said the longstanding sanctions would remain, Bloomberg reported. The Iranian regime 'is indeed in a very weak position. But it has not been defeated", says Piron. There is a risk that in its damaged state the Iranian authorities will fall back on a time-honoured strategy of cracking down, he adds. Faced with a population already suffering from the war and a social and economic crisis, the regime could step up the pressure to prevent any dissent: The hundreds of arrests and the recent increase of executions are the first signs of this. By using a pre-emptive strategy, the regime is aiming to discourage protests within the country. A popular uprising remains a possibility, Piron says, although there is no way of predicting it. "All it would take is a symbolic event to rekindle protest," says Piron. Popular resistance to the regime was not at all in evidence while the war was going on, 'But it may be possible now that the conflict is over.'
Chicago Tribune
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
Pegah Banihashemi: From ceasefire to succession, Iran's real power struggle has just begun
As international attention turns away from missile strikes and toward diplomacy following the recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, a deeper, longer-term struggle is quietly taking shape inside the Islamic Republic — one that will define the country's political future. For the first time in his 36 years in power, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has publicly acknowledged that he has identified potential successors. Though overshadowed by the immediate aftermath of military escalation, this statement marks the beginning of a pivotal and unprecedented transition in the Islamic Republic. As a legal scholar specializing in constitutional law and authoritarian governance, I view this moment not merely as a political maneuver but as a test of the Islamic Republic's institutional durability — and its long-standing contradictions. In a development that received limited international attention, sources close to Iranian leadership revealed that Khamenei has identified a short list of potential successors. This was reported by Newsweek citing individuals familiar with the matter. While the Iranian constitution outlines a process for succession, even indirect confirmation of such planning is rare — and it underscores the regime's growing concern about managing an eventual transition of power. The timing is also telling. The ceasefire with Israel, though fragile, has temporarily halted external conflict and redirected public focus to internal vulnerabilities. Decades of repression, economic mismanagement and growing legitimacy crises have left the regime weakened at home. A leadership transition in this context carries not only political weight, but also the potential to spark deeper unrest or power fragmentation within Iran's already-opaque ruling elite. According to Article 111 of Iran's constitution — originally adopted in 1979 and amended in 1989 — in the event of the supreme leader's death, dismissal, incapacity or even resignation, a temporary council composed of the president, the head of the judiciary and a cleric from the Guardian Council is tasked with assuming the leader's responsibilities until the Assembly of Experts appoints a successor. On paper, this process appears straightforward. But in practice, the process is anything but transparent or democratic. While the constitution places the responsibility of selecting the next supreme leader on the Assembly of Experts, the body itself is far from independent. All candidates for the assembly are subject to strict vetting and must be approved by the Guardian Council — a body whose members are, in part, appointed directly or indirectly by the sitting supreme leader. This means that the individuals tasked with choosing the next leader have already passed through filters loyal to the current one. In principle, the sitting supreme leader is not supposed to influence the selection of his successor. Yet, the entire system — from candidate approval to ideological alignment — operates within a tightly controlled structure, undermining the notion of a genuinely representative or independent process. Moreover, the constitution does not specify any clear criteria for leadership selection beyond vague requirements such as 'religious and political authority.' This ambiguity leaves the door wide open for factionalism, internal maneuvering and even military interference. While the constitutional structure offers a legal facade of order, the true dynamics of power transition in Iran are likely to be shaped by unelected centers of influence: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Khamenei's inner circle and the expansive bureaucracy of the supreme leader's office. These entities have accumulated immense power over the past three decades, including control over economic assets, media, surveillance and foreign policy. Their role in selecting the next leader — or ensuring that a compliant figure rises — will be decisive. This reality underscores a broader truth: In the Islamic Republic, legal texts often mask the informal mechanisms that truly govern political life. The last leadership transition, from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to Khamenei in 1989, occurred under vastly different conditions. At the time, the regime had emerged from the Iran-Iraq war with revolutionary fervor intact, and Khamenei was elevated largely due to elite consensus and political loyalty, not religious stature. Today, the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic is far more contested. The 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement of 2022, economic decline exacerbated by international sanctions, and public disillusionment with both reformists and hard-liners have created a volatile political environment. The succession process, even if tightly controlled, could act as a flashpoint for broader challenges to state authority. Furthermore, the regional and international context has changed dramatically. Iran's geopolitical position is more isolated, and its relationships with global powers are strained. Any signs of instability or elite fragmentation during succession will be closely watched by allies and adversaries alike. If the regime seeks to manage succession solely through elite backroom deals and repression, it risks amplifying the very instability it hopes to avoid. Lack of transparency, exclusion of public voices and continued reliance on harsh punishments — such as the recent wave of expedited executions — will deepen mistrust and further erode what remains of the regime's domestic legitimacy. Conversely, a more inclusive and transparent process, while unlikely, could offer a rare opportunity to begin bridging the widening gap between the state and society. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel may have quieted the skies, but inside Iran, the country now faces a deeper and more complex reckoning — not only over who will lead next and under what terms, but also over the government's handling of the crisis and whether the supreme leader intends to change his position or respond to public demands for accountability. For the first time in decades, the question of succession is no longer theoretical. The supreme leader, who had been hiding during the Israeli assault, is expected to re-emerge. Yet his silence during the war — and the damage sustained across Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure — has raised new doubts about the regime's preparedness and resilience. Perhaps no statement captures the irony of the moment more than Khamenei's own words: 'Rest assured, there will be neither war nor negotiation.' And yet, there was war — and ultimately, there was negotiation. As he returns to the public eye, will he open the path for a successor to confront the crisis he leaves behind or continue to tighten the circle of power until the very end? The path Khamenei chooses next may determine not only the future of Iran's leadership — but also the fate of the Islamic Republic itself.
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Business Standard
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Business Standard
Sheltering in a bunker, Iran's supreme leader prepares for the worst
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has picked replacements in case military commanders die in Israeli strikes. He has also named possible replacements for himself NYT Farnaz Fassihi Wary of assassination, Iran's supreme leader mostly speaks with his commanders through a trusted aide now, suspending electronic communications to make it harder to find him, three Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans say. Ensconced in a bunker, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has picked an array of replacements down his chain of military command in case more of his valued lieutenants are killed. And in a remarkable move, the officials add, Ayatollah Khamenei has even named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him should he be killed, as well — perhaps the most telling illustration of the precarious moment he and his three-decade rule are facing. Though only a week old, the Israeli strikes are the biggest military assault on Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s, and the effect on the nation's capital, Tehran, has been particularly fierce. In only a few days, the Israeli attacks have been more intense and have caused more damage in Tehran than Saddam Hussein did in his entire eight-year war against Iran. Iran appeared to have overcome its initial shock, reorganizing enough to launch daily counterstrikes of its own on Israel, hitting a hospital, the Haifa oil refinery, religious buildings and homes. But then the United States entered the war as well. President Trump announced late Saturday that the U.S. military had bombed three of Iran's nuclear sites, including its uranium-enrichment facility deep underground at Fordo, broadening the conflict significantly. 'Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's No. 1 state sponsor of terror,' Mr. Trump said in an address to the nation from the White House on Saturday night. Peering inside Iran's closely guarded leadership can be difficult, but as of late this week its chain of command still seemed to be functioning, despite being hit hard, and there were no obvious signs of dissent in the political ranks, according to the officials and to diplomats in Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, is aware that either Israel or the United States could try to assassinate him, an end he would view as martyrdom, the officials said. Given the possibility, the ayatollah has made the unusual decision to instruct his nation's Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for appointing the supreme leader, to choose his successor swiftly from the three names he has provided. Normally, the process of appointing a new supreme leader could take months, with clerics picking and choosing from their own lists of names. But with the nation now at war, the officials said, the ayatollah wants to ensure a quick, orderly transition and to preserve his legacy. 'The top priority is the preservation of the state,' said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University. 'It is all calculative and pragmatic.' Succession has long been an exceedingly delicate and thorny topic, seldom discussed publicly beyond speculations and rumors in political and religious circles. The supreme leader has enormous powers: He is the commander in chief of the Iran Armed Forces, as well as the head of the judiciary, the legislature and the executive branch. He is also a Vali Faqih, meaning the most senior guardian of the Shiite faith. Ayatollah Khamenei's son Mojtaba, also a cleric and close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who was rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the candidates, the officials said. Iran's former conservative president, Ibrahim Raisi, was also considered a front-runner before he was killed in a helicopter crash in 2024. Since the war started, Ayatollah Khamenei has delivered to the public two recorded video messages, against a backdrop of brown curtains and next to the Iranian flag. 'The people of Iran will stand against a forced war,' he said, vowing not to surrender. In normal times, Ayatollah Khamenei lives and works in a highly secure compound in central Tehran called the 'beit rahbari' — or leader's house — and he seldom leaves the premises, except for special occasions like delivering a sermon. Senior officials and military commanders come to him for weekly meetings, and speeches for the public are staged from the compound. His retreat to a bunker shows how furiously Tehran has been struck in a war with Israel that Iranian officials say is unfolding on two fronts. One is being waged from the air, with Israeli airstrikes on military bases, nuclear facilities, critical energy infrastructure, commanders and nuclear scientists in their apartment buildings in tightly packed residential neighborhoods. Some of Iran's top commanders were summarily wiped out. Hundreds of people have also been killed and thousands of others injured, with civilians slain across Iran, human rights groups inside and outside the country say. But Iranian officials say that they are fighting on a second front, as well, with covert Israeli operatives and collaborators scattered on the ground across Iran's vast terrain, launching drones at critical energy and military structures. The fear of Israeli infiltration among the top ranks of Iran's security and intelligence apparatus has rattled the Iranian power structure, even Ayatollah Khamenei, officials say. 'It is clear that we had a massive security and intelligence breach; there is no denying this,' said Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran's speaker of Parliament, Gen. Mohammad Ghalibaf, in an audio recording analyzing the war. 'Our senior commanders were all assassinated within one hour.' Iran's 'biggest failure was not discovering' the months of planning Israeli operatives had conducted to bring missiles and drone parts into the country to prepare for the attack, he added. The country's leadership has been preoccupied with three central concerns, officials say: an assassination attempt against Ayatollah Khamenei; the United States' entering the war; and more debilitating attacks against Iran's critical infrastructure, like power plants, oil and gas refineries and dams. Iran has threatened to retaliate against the United States by attacking American targets in the region, but the options for Iran's government are complicated, at best. If it retaliates against the American strikes on its nuclear facilities, it could be thrust into a major war with a military superpower. The fear of assassination and infiltration within Iran's ranks is also widespread enough that the Ministry of Intelligence has announced a series of security protocols, telling officials to stop using cellphones or any electronic devices to communicate. It has ordered all senior government officials and military commanders to remain below ground, according to two Iranian officials. Almost every day, the Ministry of Intelligence or the Armed Forces issue directives for the public to report suspicious individuals and vehicle movements, and to refrain from taking photographs and videos of attacks on sensitive sites. The country has also been in a communication blackout with the outside world. The internet has been nearly shut down, and incoming international calls have been blocked. The Ministry of Telecommunications said in a statement that these measures were to find enemy operatives on the ground and to disable their ability to launch attacks. 'The security apparatus has concluded that, in this critical time, the internet is being abused to harm the lives and livelihoods of civilians,' said Ali Ahmadinia, the communications director for President Masoud Pezeshkian. 'We are safeguarding the security of our country by shutting down the internet.' On Friday, the Supreme National Security Council took it a step further, announcing that anyone working with the enemy must turn themselves into the authorities by the end of the day on Sunday, hand over their military equipment and 'return to the arms of the people.' It warned that anyone discovered to be working with the enemy after Sunday would face execution. Tehran has largely emptied out after orders by Israel to evacuate several highly populated districts. Videos of the city show highways and desolate streets that are typically clogged with bumper-to-bumper traffic. In interviews, residents of Tehran who remained in the city said security forces had set up checkpoints on every highway, on smaller roads and at entry points in and out of the city to conduct ad hoc searches. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a reformist politician and a former vice president, said in a telephone interview from Tehran that Israel had miscalculated Iranians' reaction to the war. Mr. Abtahi said that the deep political factions that are typically in sharp disagreement with one another had rallied behind the supreme leader and focused the country on defending itself from an external threat. The war has 'softened the divisions we had, both among each other and with the general public,' Mr. Abtahi said. Israel's attacks have set off a resurgence of nationalism among many Iranians, inside and outside the country, including many critical of the government. That sense of common cause has emerged in a torrent of social media posts and statements by prominent human rights and political activists, physicians, national athletes, artists and celebrities. 'Like family, we may not always agree but Iran's soil is our red line,' wrote Saeid Ezzatollahi, a player with Iran's national soccer squad, Team Melli, on social media. Hotels, guesthouses and wedding halls have opened their doors free of charge to shelter displaced people fleeing Tehran, according to Iranian news media and videos on social media. Psychologists are offering free virtual therapy sessions in posts on their social media pages. Supermarkets are giving discounts, and at bakeries, customers are limiting their own purchases of fresh bread to one loaf so that everyone standing in line can have bread, according to videos shared on social media. Volunteers are offering services, like running errands to checking on disabled and older residents. 'We are seeing a beautiful unity among our people,' said Reza, 42, a businessman, in a telephone interview near the Caspian Sea, where he is taking shelter with his family. Using only one name to avoid scrutiny by the government, he added: 'It's hard to explain the mood. We are scared, but we are also giving each other solidarity, love and kindness. We are in it together. This is an attack on our country, on Iran.' Narges Mohammadi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and the country's most prominent human rights activist, has spent decades in and out of jail, pushing for democratic change in Iran. But even she warned against the attacks on her country, telling the BBC this past week that 'Democracy cannot come through violence and war.'
RTÉ News
23-06-2025
- Politics
- RTÉ News
Succession plans under way for Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Senior clerics in Iran are accelerating the hunt for a successor to Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following increased Israeli strikes. A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Mr Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his replacement, has accelerated its planning in recent days since Israel attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the veteran leader. Mr Khamenei, 86, is being briefed on talks and has gone into hiding with his family and is being guarded by the Vali-ye Amr special forces unit of the Revolutionary Guards, a top security official said. The ruling establishment will immediately seek to name a successor to Mr Khamenei if he is killed. A new leader will still be chosen for his devotion to the revolutionary precepts of the Islamic Republic's late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who is close to Mr Khamenei's office and privy to the talks. At the same time, the top echelon of power is also considering which candidate might present a more moderate face to ward off foreign attacks and internal revolts. Who are the front runners in the race for Supreme leader? Two front runners have emerged in the succession discussions, including the Ayatollah's 56-year-old son Mojtaba Khamenei, long seen as a continuity choice, and a new contender, Hassan Khomeini, who is a grandson of the father of the Islamic revolution. Hassan Khomeini, a close ally of the reformist faction that favours the easing of social and political restrictions, commands respect among senior clerics and the Revolutionary Guards because of his lineage. "I once again humbly express that this small and insignificant servant of the Iranian people stands ready to proudly be present on any front or scene you deem necessary," Hassan Khomeini said. He has come into the frame as a serious candidate this month amid the conflict with Israel and America because he could represent a more conciliatory choice internationally and domestically than Mojtaba Khamenei, sources said. By contrast, Mr Khamenei aligns closely to his father's hardline policies, they added. However, with the military conflict continuing, it remains unclear whether any new leader could be chosen easily or installed securely or if he could assume the level of authority enjoyed by the Ayatollah. Israeli strikes have also killed several of Iran's top Revolutionary Guards commanders, potentially complicating a handover of power as the elite military force has long played a central role in enforcing the supreme leader's rule. The Ayatollah's office and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body from which the succession committee was drawn, were not available to comment. Planning for an eventual handover was already in the works because of Mr Khamenei's age and the longstanding health concerns of a leader who has dominated all aspects of Iranian politics for decades, the sources said. The urgency of the task was underlined in September when Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, a close ally of the Ayatollah's. The planning then accelerated significantly this month following the Israeli attacks on nuclear sites, which were followed by the American attacks at the weekend. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," US President Donald Trump warned on social media last week, calling for Tehran's unconditional surrender. "He is an easy target." Mr Khamenei hasn't publicly expressed any preference for his successor. Sources say he had repeatedly opposed the idea of his son taking over, in succession discussions in the past, concerned about any suggestion of Iran returning to the kind of hereditary rule that ended with the ousting of the shah in 1979. What is a supreme leader? The role of Supreme leader was created after the revolution and then enshrined in the constitution giving a top cleric ultimate authority in guiding the elected president and parliament. Officially, the leader is named by the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior clerics. They are chosen through a national election in which a hardline watchdog body aligned with Mr Khamenei approves all the candidates. "Whether the Islamic Republic survives or not, it will be a very different one, because the context in which it has existed has fundamentally changed," said London-based Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam. He added that Hassan Khomeini could "fit the bill" for a leader to take Iran in a new direction. "The regime has to opt for someone who'll facilitate slow transition," Mr Rassam said. Hassan Khomeini Hassan Khomeini's close links to the reformist faction of Iranian politics, which pursued an ultimately unsuccessful policy of opening Iran to the outside world in the 1990s, saw hardline officials bar him from running as a member of senior clerical body the Assembly of Experts in 2016. The succession planners are aware that Hassan Khomeini is likely to be more palatable to the Iranian population than a hardliner, five insiders have said. Last year he warned of a "crisis of rising popular dissatisfaction" among Iranians due to poverty and deprivation. Mojtaba Khamenei By contrast, Mojtaba Khamenei's views echo those of his father on every major topic from cracking down on opponents to taking a hardline with foreign foes. A mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology at a religious seminary in the city Qom, the centre of Iranian religious life, Mr Mojtaba has never held a formal position in the Islamic Republic, though exercises influence behind the scenes as the gatekeeper to his father. The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Mr Mojtaba in 2019. The department had said he represented the Supreme leader in "an official capacity despite never being elected or appointed to a government position" aside from working his father's office. Other candidates Several of the candidates long seen as possible successors to Mr Khamenei have already died. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani died in 2017, while former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi died in 2018. Former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in 2023. Another senior cleric, Sadegh Amoli Larijani, has been sidelined. Others, such as the Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, are still in contention but have fallen behind Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, the five sources said. Beyond the most likely candidates, it's also possible that a less prominent cleric could be chosen as a pawn of Revolutionary Guards, said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think-tank. "It is possible that they would put forward a candidate that no one has ever heard of and would not really hold the same levers of power that Ayatollah Khamenei has held now for more than 30 years," he said. After the death of the Islamic Republic's founder Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Mr Khamenei was publicly hailed as his predecessor's choice. Although he had already served as president, Mr Khamenei was only a mid-ranking cleric and was initially dismissed by influential clerics as weak and an unlikely successor to his charismatic predecessor. However, he steadily tightened his grip to become Iran's unquestioned decision-maker, relying on the Revolutionary Guards as he outmanoeuvred rivals and crushed bouts of popular unrest.
