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Economist Nouriel Roubini sees a ‘mini stagflationary shock' coming in the second half of 2025
Economist Nouriel Roubini sees a ‘mini stagflationary shock' coming in the second half of 2025

CNBC

time06-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Economist Nouriel Roubini sees a ‘mini stagflationary shock' coming in the second half of 2025

An economist and investor nicknamed "Dr. Doom" sees a rough patch ahead for the U.S. economy, but isn't advocating any panicked selling. Nouriel Roubini told CNBC that he expects the core personal consumption expenditures index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric — to reach about 3.5% by the end of the year, and economic growth to weaken and possibly turn negative. Best known for calling the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Roubini said the second half will amount to "a mini stagflationary shock," and that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts until at least December. That view includes an expectation of a "mild" resolution to trade negotiations that ends with many countries facing a 15% rate, the economist said. "I'm not expecting, certainly, anything close to April 2," Roubini said, referring to the tariff levels announced by President Donald Trump that day that sparked a steep market sell-off. Roubini, a Harvard-trained economist, has a long track record in the academia, government and the private sector. The "Dr. Doom" moniker refers to numerous macroeconomic warnings he has issued throughout his career. His hit rate is not perfect, but he was early in warning about the financial crisis and a virus-induced recession in 2020. He is also one of the portfolio managers on the Atlas America Fund (USAF) , an ETF launched late last year that aims to guard against economic risks from structurally higher inflation to climate change. The fund is designed to be less volatile than the stock market but is "not a portfolio for doomsday," Roubini said. The fund is still small and thinly traded, with only about $17 million in assets, according to FactSet. But performance has been solid. The multi-asset fund has gained more than 5% since inception last November. That trailis the S & P 500 , but USAF has shown its defensive mettle, falling less than 3% in the days following the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, when U.S. stocks soon fell roughly 20%. USAF 1Y mountain The Atlas America Fund saw a smaller drawdown in April than broad stock market indexes. "We don't particularly want outsized returns in one month. We'd rather have the slow and steady uptick, which is exactly what we've been seeing," said Puneet Agarwal, one of other portfolio managers for USAF. The portfolio, which includes large positions in gold, short-term U.S. government debt and exposure to agricultural commodities, has changed some since the fund's launch. USAF has recently added exposure to defense technology and cybersecurity stocks, and bought short-term inflation-protected bonds, while dialing back holdings in real estate, Agarwal said. The fund's large bet on gold helped it outperform the stock market earlier this year, but also contributed to USAF's relatively sluggish performance in June. Roubini said the bet on gold is part of a longer-term theory that the world is moving away from the U.S. dollar. "We're not expecting things to crash. But the trend is clear and it is going [in] one direction," Roubini said.

Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.
Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.

Yahoo

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.

ETF launches continue to surge, with some popular market voices putting their names on funds. Starting an ETF involves significant expenses, including SEC filing and listing fees. Funds need strong performance and substantial assets under management to remain viable. A string of widely followed strategists, economists, and investors have launched exchange-traded funds in recent years. There's famed NYU professor Nouriel Roubini — known colloquially as "Dr. Doom" — and his Atlas America Fund (USAF). Then there's Dan Ives — the tech and AI permabull who can often be found on CNBC wearing fluorescent blazers — who has parlayed his bold analyst calls into the Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (IVES). And let's not forget Fundstrat's Tom Lee — former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan — and his Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY). They've stepped into a crowded market with thousands of funds competing for investors' money. A record 723 ETFs came to market in 2024 alone. And they're using their own high-profile personal brands to stand out in a crowded marketplace. But starting a fund is an entirely different beast than keeping one afloat for any sustained amount of time. Yes, strong performance is crucial. But running a fund is expensive, and it takes much more than good returns to ensure success. To start, the cost to launch a fund is hefty. Firms are looking at a $50,000-to-$100,000 filing fee with the SEC, according to Zachary Evans, analyst for passive strategies at Morningstar. puts that number between $100,000 and $500,000. Depending on the type of fund, there also may be an initial listing fee with NYSE or Nasdaq. But the bills don't stop there. Listing fees with the exchange come due every year. With Nasdaq, for example, it's a $4,000 annual fee. Then there's a long list of costs associated with running the fund itself, Evans said. Paying the staff who execute the trades. Paying compliance and a risk-management team. Paying sales and advertising teams to market the fund. Paying rent for your office space. And so on. It all adds up, and it means funds need to amass significant assets under management. ETF providers make money through the annual fees, or expense ratios, they charge investors. So the more money they manage, the more money they're bringing in. Performance also plays a role here — if a fund's value rises by 20% in a year, the fees it extracts will be 20% higher. "This can vary quite a bit, but a baseline number we've heard is that it should cost around $200,000 a year to run an ETF," Evans told BI. "More complicated strategies will cost more, simpler strategies will cost less, or if it's from a large firm that has economies of scale, it might cost less as well." He added: "Say an ETF charges 50 basis points with annual expenses of $200,000 a year. You need $40 million AUM in order to break even on that product." For some funds, there's also pressure associated with seed money. When an ETF launches, Evans said it might have some investors who promise to keep their capital locked up in the fund for a set period of time — say two or three years. Once that period ends, if the investors pull their money, it can be an existential threat to a fund if they haven't pulled in enough money from elsewhere. "Once that seed money dries up, in order for them to endure, they need to make sure they have enough investor interest, enough assets to sustain them," Evans said. Fund closures are increasingly common. Evans said a little more than 200 closed in 2023 — a record — and just under 200 closed in 2024. "As more companies are launching their products, more companies are closing down their products — the vast majority of which have really failed to catch on with investors," Evans said. "They've failed to generate either the performance or, in effect, the asset level to support these products." Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio

Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.
Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.

Yahoo

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.

ETF launches continue to surge, with some popular market voices putting their names on funds. Starting an ETF involves significant expenses, including SEC filing and listing fees. Funds need strong performance and substantial assets under management to remain viable. A string of widely followed strategists, economists, and investors have launched exchange-traded funds in recent years. There's famed NYU professor Nouriel Roubini — known colloquially as "Dr. Doom" — and his Atlas America Fund (USAF). Then there's Dan Ives — the tech and AI permabull who can often be found on CNBC wearing fluorescent blazers — who has parlayed his bold analyst calls into the Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (IVES). And let's not forget Fundstrat's Tom Lee — former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan — and his Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY). They've stepped into a crowded market with thousands of funds competing for investors' money. A record 723 ETFs came to market in 2024 alone. And they're using their own high-profile personal brands to stand out in a crowded marketplace. But starting a fund is an entirely different beast than keeping one afloat for any sustained amount of time. Yes, strong performance is crucial. But running a fund is expensive, and it takes much more than good returns to ensure success. To start, the cost to launch a fund is hefty. Firms are looking at a $50,000-to-$100,000 filing fee with the SEC, according to Zachary Evans, analyst for passive strategies at Morningstar. puts that number between $100,000 and $500,000. Depending on the type of fund, there also may be an initial listing fee with NYSE or Nasdaq. But the bills don't stop there. Listing fees with the exchange come due every year. With Nasdaq, for example, it's a $4,000 annual fee. Then there's a long list of costs associated with running the fund itself, Evans said. Paying the staff who execute the trades. Paying compliance and a risk-management team. Paying sales and advertising teams to market the fund. Paying rent for your office space. And so on. It all adds up, and it means funds need to amass significant assets under management. ETF providers make money through the annual fees, or expense ratios, they charge investors. So the more money they manage, the more money they're bringing in. Performance also plays a role here — if a fund's value rises by 20% in a year, the fees it extracts will be 20% higher. "This can vary quite a bit, but a baseline number we've heard is that it should cost around $200,000 a year to run an ETF," Evans told BI. "More complicated strategies will cost more, simpler strategies will cost less, or if it's from a large firm that has economies of scale, it might cost less as well." He added: "Say an ETF charges 50 basis points with annual expenses of $200,000 a year. You need $40 million AUM in order to break even on that product." For some funds, there's also pressure associated with seed money. When an ETF launches, Evans said it might have some investors who promise to keep their capital locked up in the fund for a set period of time — say two or three years. Once that period ends, if the investors pull their money, it can be an existential threat to a fund if they haven't pulled in enough money from elsewhere. "Once that seed money dries up, in order for them to endure, they need to make sure they have enough investor interest, enough assets to sustain them," Evans said. Fund closures are increasingly common. Evans said a little more than 200 closed in 2023 — a record — and just under 200 closed in 2024. "As more companies are launching their products, more companies are closing down their products — the vast majority of which have really failed to catch on with investors," Evans said. "They've failed to generate either the performance or, in effect, the asset level to support these products." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.
Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.

Business Insider

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Insider

Famed analysts and investors have been putting their names on ETFs. Here's what it takes for a fund to succeed.

A string of widely followed strategists, economists, and investors have launched exchange-traded funds in recent years. There's famed NYU professor Nouriel Roubini — known colloquially as " Dr. Doom" — and his Atlas America Fund (USAF). Then there's Dan Ives — the tech and AI permabull who can often be found on CNBC wearing fluorescent blazers — who has parlayed his bold analyst calls into the Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (IVES). And let's not forget Fundstrat's Tom Lee — former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan — and his Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY). They've stepped into a crowded market with thousands of funds competing for investors' money. A record 723 ETFs came to market in 2024 alone. And they're using their own high-profile personal brands to stand out in a crowded marketplace. But starting a fund is an entirely different beast than keeping one afloat for any sustained amount of time. Yes, strong performance is crucial. But running a fund is expensive, and it takes much more than good returns to ensure success. To start, the cost to launch a fund is hefty. Firms are looking at a $50,000-to-$100,000 filing fee with the SEC, according to Zachary Evans, analyst for passive strategies at Morningstar. puts that number between $100,000 and $500,000. Depending on the type of fund, there also may be an initial listing fee with NYSE or Nasdaq. But the bills don't stop there. Listing fees with the exchange come due every year. With Nasdaq, for example, it's a $4,000 annual fee. Then there's a long list of costs associated with running the fund itself, Evans said. Paying the staff who execute the trades. Paying compliance and a risk-management team. Paying sales and advertising teams to market the fund. Paying rent for your office space. And so on. It all adds up, and it means funds need to amass significant assets under management. ETF providers make money through the annual fees, or expense ratios, they charge investors. So the more money they manage, the more money they're bringing in. Performance also plays a role here — if a fund's value rises by 20% in a year, the fees it extracts will be 20% higher. "This can vary quite a bit, but a baseline number we've heard is that it should cost around $200,000 a year to run an ETF," Evans told BI. "More complicated strategies will cost more, simpler strategies will cost less, or if it's from a large firm that has economies of scale, it might cost less as well." He added: "Say an ETF charges 50 basis points with annual expenses of $200,000 a year. You need $40 million AUM in order to break even on that product." For some funds, there's also pressure associated with seed money. When an ETF launches, Evans said it might have some investors who promise to keep their capital locked up in the fund for a set period of time — say two or three years. Once that period ends, if the investors pull their money, it can be an existential threat to a fund if they haven't pulled in enough money from elsewhere. "Once that seed money dries up, in order for them to endure, they need to make sure they have enough investor interest, enough assets to sustain them," Evans said. Fund closures are increasingly common. Evans said a little more than 200 closed in 2023 — a record — and just under 200 closed in 2024. "As more companies are launching their products, more companies are closing down their products — the vast majority of which have really failed to catch on with investors," Evans said. "They've failed to generate either the performance or, in effect, the asset level to support these products."

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